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沙特大幅下调旗舰原油溢价至五年低点,全球供应过剩压力显现
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-04 16:15
由于全球石油市场持续出现供应过剩的迹象,沙特阿拉伯将其旗舰原油价格下调至五年来的最低水平。 12月4日,据媒体报道,沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(沙特阿美)将把2025年1月面向亚洲客户的阿拉伯轻质原油官方售价,官方售价设定为较阿曼/ 迪拜原油均价升水0.60美元/桶。 此次调价后,该旗舰原油等级的溢价水平将降至2021年1月以来的五年最低,且下调幅度与市场此前对炼油商和贸易商的调查预期基本一致。 全球基准布伦特原油收复早前失地,价格与前一日持平。 风险提示及免责条款 供应过剩,油价承压 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责 任自负。 国际能源署(IEA)已预测2026年将出现创纪录的供应过剩。包括高盛集团在内的多家华尔街投行也预计原油期货价格将进一步走低。沙特阿美 的降价行动,正是生产国面对这一黯淡前景所做出的直接反应。 作为全球最重要的产油国联盟,OPEC+的行动是市场关注的另一核心。就在此次调价前夕,OPEC+在刚刚过去的周末确认了其先前的一项决定, 即暂停明年第一季度的增产。 ...
“国民好车”背后的商业三角:从“听劝”到“保障”的范式创新
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-04 15:10
广汽的制造、宁德时代的电池、京东的服务,三方联盟正将"用户导向"从口号变为可感知的消费信心。 12月1日,一场特殊的"用户全开麦"恳谈会让京东、广汽、宁德时代三家企业的项目负责人坐在一起,直面用户的尖锐提问。从"宣传图有天窗,实车为什么 没有"的质疑,到租电方案里程限制的担忧,再到开票地域限制的困惑,用户的问题直接而具体。 这场恳谈会没有变成简单的答疑解惑,而是三方合作模式进入深度磨合期后的一次集中展示。更为重要的是,这一次的恳谈会,直接体现出了三方都在积极 面对用户,持续为提升用户的体验而出力。 在本次合作中,京东、广汽、宁德时代三大巨头跨界联盟,以C2M(用户直连制造)模式对汽车产业价值链进行了一次外科手术式重构。 京东以其覆盖超3000家门店的线下网络与数亿用户的数据洞察能力,扮演"超级供应链组局者",精准定义需求并压缩渠道成本;广汽依托其智能制造体系, 担当整车品质与安全的"压舱石";宁德时代则以其"巧克力换电"技术及"只换不修"的承诺,构建起解决续航与电池衰减焦虑的"技术护城河"。 三者分工明确,风险共担,共同为消费者编织了一张名为 "三倍保障" 的信心之网。这一模式的竞争力,在于其同时祭出了 "高 ...
Meta Platforms的扎克伯格计划对Metaverse预算削减30%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-04 14:03
市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 Meta Platforms的扎克伯格计划对Metaverse预算削减30%。 风险提示及免责条款 ...
在“抛售美国”声中重仓美债,Pimco登顶美国主动债基榜首,回报率超过10%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-04 13:57
Core Insights - Pimco achieved remarkable success in 2025 by betting against the prevailing "sell America" sentiment, with its flagship fund returning over 10%, topping the list of active bond funds in the U.S. [1] - The firm maintained its positions in 5 to 10-year U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities during market turmoil, further increasing its holdings as prices fell [1][2] - Pimco's Income Fund recorded a return of 10.4%, marking its best performance in at least a decade, while the Total Return Fund followed closely with a 9.1% return [1] Investment Strategy - The investment committee at Pimco held intensive meetings to assess strategies during a critical period in April and May, focusing on the impact of Trump's tariff policies on economic growth [2] - Despite initial market reactions, Pimco's strategy to hold onto its positions in U.S. Treasuries was based on the belief that tariffs would negatively affect growth and increase uncertainty for consumers and businesses [2][3] - The firm observed that investor interest in U.S. assets was increasing, countering the narrative of a complete sell-off of U.S. Treasuries [3] Market Dynamics - During the market downturn, Pimco's Income Fund experienced a net outflow of $2 billion in April, the first since October 2023, while the overall U.S. bond market fell by 0.7% in May [3] - The frequency of investment committee meetings increased from three times a week to daily, reflecting heightened vigilance in monitoring client movements and market conditions [3] Yield Curve Strategy - Pimco maintained a bearish outlook on long-term bonds, anticipating poor performance due to central bank easing policies and concerns over sovereign debt and deficits [4] - The firm capitalized on a steepening yield curve, reducing exposure to 30-year Treasuries to lock in profits [5] Future Outlook - Pimco is shifting its focus to global bond markets, reducing its interest rate risk exposure in the U.S. and increasing positions in Japan, Australia, and the UK, reflecting a strategic pivot based on economic growth signals [5] - Despite challenges, including the recent departure of a key executive, Pimco's funds have consistently outperformed major competitors over 3, 5, and 10-year periods [6]
Revelio Labs称美国11月非农就业岗位减少9000个
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-04 13:51
风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 Revelio Labs的数据显示,美国11月非农就业岗位减少9,000个,10月数字从减少9100个修正为减少 15500个。 ...
美国11月29日当周首次申请失业救济人数 19.1万人,预期 22万人,前值 21.6万人
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-04 13:31
Core Viewpoint - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 29 is reported at 191,000, which is lower than the expected 220,000 and the previous value of 216,000 [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Employment Data - Initial jobless claims stand at 191,000, significantly below the forecast of 220,000 [1] - The previous week's claims were recorded at 216,000, indicating a decrease in claims [1]
瞄准33万亿欧元居民储蓄!欧盟拟打破金融服务国家壁垒,推动打造真正的统一资本市场
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-04 13:22
欧盟委员会正推动一项旨在打破金融服务领域国家壁垒的全面计划,意图打造一个能够与美国相抗衡的 真正统一的资本市场,以此为陷入困境的欧盟经济注入新的活力。 周四,欧盟的执行机构欧盟委员会公布了一揽子措施,旨在消除跨境交易和资产管理中存在的障碍。这 些提议是欧盟创建"储蓄与投资联盟"行动的核心组成部分,目的是为了更有效地为创新型企业融资,从 而推动经济增长。 欧盟金融服务专员Maria Luis Albuquerque指出,当前的欧盟资本市场规模过小且竞争力不足,现状"行 不通"。此举被视为对欧洲经济增长模式停滞、竞争力落后于美国的回应。该计划的目标是将欧盟庞大 的家庭储蓄更有效地引导至实体经济投资,以阻止创新企业和资本持续流向海外。 然而,这些改革措施仍需获得欧盟各国政府和欧洲议会的批准,预计将面临部分成员国的阻力。尽管如 此,欧盟官员强调,鉴于欧洲在地缘政治和经济上正逐渐"失势",推进单一市场已是刻不容缓。 整合监管为核心,强化ESMA权力 为了实现资本市场的真正统一,该方案提出了一系列具体的技术性措施,其中最核心的环节是推动监管 整合,并赋予欧洲证券和市场管理局(ESMA)更大的权力。 提案建议,通过增强受监 ...
国际油价小幅回升,普京拒绝部分“和平协议”后,乌代表团赴美参加新一轮谈判
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-04 12:33
Group 1: Core Insights - International oil prices have slightly rebounded, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 0.49% to $59.24 per barrel, amid varying progress in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations [1] - Russian President Putin stated that certain points in the U.S. proposed peace plan are "unacceptable," casting a shadow over reconciliation efforts promoted by the Trump administration [4][10] - The core issue of territorial control remains a significant obstacle in the negotiations, with Putin insisting on either a military solution or the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces [7][10] Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - Putin described the recent talks with U.S. Middle East envoy Wittekov as lengthy and necessary, emphasizing the need to examine each point of the peace agreement carefully [5][6] - The Russian side is open to some U.S. proposals but remains firm on others, indicating fundamental disagreements on key issues [8][10] - Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized the need for a "dignified peace" that considers Ukraine's interests, highlighting the significant gap in positions among the parties involved [13] Group 3: U.S. Perspective - The U.S. administration is cautiously evaluating the prospects of the negotiations, with Trump noting the recent meetings were "quite good" [11] - The initial 28-point plan proposed by the Trump team was seen as favoring Russia, prompting adjustments to make it more acceptable to Kyiv [12]
美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数同比 23.5%,预期 48%,前值 175.3%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-04 12:30
市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 美国11月挑战者企业裁员人数同比 23.5%,预期 48%,前值 175.3%。 风险提示及免责条款 ...
谷歌的“秘密武器”——TPU将撑起一个9000亿美元的超级赛道?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-12-04 12:20
投资者正日益相信,Alphabet旗下的人工智能芯片可能成为其母公司未来的重要收入来源。这种被视为谷歌"秘密武器"的定制芯片,即张量处理 单元(TPU),不仅在内部推动其云计算业务增长,更有望通过向第三方出售,开辟一个价值近万亿美元的新市场。 在这一预期的推动下,Alphabet股价在第四季度大幅上涨31%,成为标普500指数中表现第十佳的成分股。市场对TPU商业化前景的乐观情绪,源 于近期一系列关键动态。10月底,Alphabet宣布将向AI初创公司Anthropic PBC提供价值数百亿美元的芯片,此举推动其股价在两天内上涨超过 6%。 一个月后,据The Information报道,Meta Platforms Inc.正就在TPU上投入数十亿美元进行谈判,消息一出再次引发股价跳涨。DA Davidson技术研 究主管Gil Luria估计,如果Alphabet能够认真推进TPU的外部销售,未来几年内或可占据AI芯片市场20%的份额,这将使其成为一个规模约9000 亿美元的业务。 华尔街普遍认为,TPU是Alphabet在激烈AI竞赛中的核心优势。即使Alphabet从未对外销售过一枚芯片,更高效的自研 ...