市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 OpenAI计划本周在ChatGPT中推出新的模型，ChatGPT月增长超过10%。 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, along with several other governmental departments, is taking measures to protect the rights of workers in new employment forms by providing administrative guidance to 16 companies including Meituan, Taobao, JD, and Didi [1] - The meeting emphasized the need for these companies to fully implement their responsibilities as employers, continuously improve labor management, and effectively safeguard the rights of workers in new employment forms [1]

Seedance2.0把AI视频生成从"能用"推向"可控且可规模化"，在降低内容生产门槛的同时，可能成为AI应用端情绪修复与产业链再定价的催化剂。 2月6日，字节跳动即梦AI发布视频模型Seedance 2.0，主打多模态参考与高效创作能力，围绕可控性，连贯性，表现力与制作门槛等痛点给出系统 性改进。据中银证券2月9日策略点评，这类功能层面的突破对AI多模态应用，尤其视频生成领域具有重要催化意义。 从市场角度看，中银证券认为在前期利空因素密集落地后，当前市场情绪已处于低点，"大模型春节档"带来密集产业催化，Seedance2.0有望带动 AI多模态产业链，并推动AI应用触底反弹，建议关注AI应用，云服务，存储，算力等环节的机会。 产业端反馈同样迅速。游戏科学创始人兼CEO、《黑神话·悟空》制作人冯骥在体验后评价称，Seedance 2.0是"当前地表最强的视频生成模型"，并 表示"很庆幸今天的Seedance 2.0来自中国"。 成本效率革命重塑产业链 关键突破：把"抽卡"变成"可控生产" 据中银证券与Seedance团队飞书文档，Seedance 2.0围绕四项核心能力强化交付确定性。 首先是多模态参考输入 ...

Core Insights - Wall Street is closely monitoring the upcoming January Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with several investment banks predicting a rebound in core inflation due to the "January effect" and tariff cost transmission [1][3] - The consensus forecast for January's core CPI month-over-month growth is around 0.3%, with Bank of America and Citigroup both predicting a 0.3% increase, while UBS has a more aggressive forecast of 0.38% [1][3][5] - The divergence between goods prices and service sector inflation is a focal point, with rising goods prices driven by tariff cost pass-through, while service prices may show seasonal weakness, potentially signaling easing inflationary pressures [1][3][8] Goods Price Trends - The "January effect" and tariff cost pass-through are expected to drive strong performance in goods prices, with Bank of America forecasting a 0.40% month-over-month increase in core goods prices, while Citigroup anticipates a 0.31% rise [3][5] - Specific categories such as furniture (+0.35%), auto parts (+0.75%), and medical goods (+0.8%) are expected to reflect sellers' actions to pass on tariff costs [3][5] - UBS warns of measurement disruptions due to delayed data collection from November, which may impact January's core goods prices and airline ticket prices by approximately 5 basis points [5] Service Sector Inflation - There is significant divergence in expectations for service sector inflation, which will influence the overall CPI data's impact on Federal Reserve policy [8][10] - Citigroup predicts a 0.39% month-over-month increase in core services prices (excluding housing), which is lower than the typical 0.7% seen in January over the past two years [8] - Bank of America expects a slight cooling in service sector inflation compared to December, primarily due to anticipated declines in accommodation and airfare prices [10] Housing Inflation - Consensus among institutions suggests a moderate increase in housing prices, with Citigroup forecasting a 0.23% rise and UBS predicting a 0.26% increase in Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) [10] - Bank of America notes that service sector inflation may cool slightly compared to December, influenced by the previous month's strong increases in accommodation and airfare prices [10] Policy Implications - Different interpretations exist regarding how the upcoming data will affect Federal Reserve policy, with Bank of America suggesting the current inflation environment is "neither too hot nor too cold" [11] - Citigroup maintains that if inflation data remains below expectations during the typically strong seasonal period at the beginning of the year, it could convince hawkish officials that persistent inflation is no longer a primary concern [11]

Core Viewpoint - Amundi, Europe's largest asset management company with €2.8 trillion (approximately ¥23 trillion) in assets under management, signals a significant shift by reducing investments in dollar assets and focusing on Europe and emerging markets, warning that the dollar will continue to weaken if U.S. economic policies remain unchanged [2][3]. Group 1: Amundi's Perspective - Amundi, as a conservative institutional investor, is particularly averse to unquantifiable tail risks and the failure of asset correlation, which are expected to converge dangerously in the U.S. market by 2026 [2]. - The company predicts a significant slowdown in U.S. real GDP growth to 1.6% by 2026, driven by structural factors such as exhausted private demand, diminishing marginal utility of fiscal stimulus, and policy uncertainty [3][4]. Group 2: Changing Dynamics of Dollar Assets - The dual advantages of dollar assets—growth and yield spread—are simultaneously diminishing [4]. - There is a fundamental reversal in the correlation between the dollar and U.S. equities and bonds; previously, the dollar would rise as a safe haven when equities fell, but now it moves in tandem with risk assets due to concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [5][12]. Group 3: Seven Certainties - Amundi summarizes its macroeconomic judgments into "Seven Certainties," indicating a bearish outlook on dollar assets due to factors like rising inflation, geopolitical risks, and a preference for European credit and emerging market bonds [6][7]. - The strategic pillars include expectations of rising inflation, the need for diversification away from the dollar, and a focus on real and alternative assets as optimal substitutes during periods of currency depreciation [6]. Group 4: Structural Changes and Market Behavior - Over the past 12 months, despite a 14% rise in the S&P 500 due to AI investments, the dollar has depreciated by 10% against a basket of currencies since January 2025, indicating poor performance of U.S. assets when measured in foreign currencies [8][9]. - The U.S. market has experienced a "three-way kill" of stocks, bonds, and currency, reflecting instability akin to emerging markets, which raises concerns about the safety of dollar assets [10][11]. Group 5: The End of the "American Exception" - The underlying structural changes suggest a rewriting of the global financial system's fundamentals, with the assumption that the Federal Reserve can independently control inflation being challenged by rising federal debt and interest payments [12][14]. - The paradox of U.S. trade policy, which aims to reduce imports while expecting foreign entities to continue purchasing U.S. debt, poses a significant risk to the dollar's value and asset valuations [14].

花旗指出，软件与服务板块正经历一场由"AI颠覆恐惧"引发的剧烈估值重估。 据追风交易台，花旗在2月6日发布的最新美股策略研报中认为，当前的市场抛售并非源于短期基本面恶化，而是投资者正在激进地重新定价该行 业的"终端价值"。 研报指出，市场正在计入未来利润率的结构性下降，目前股价已充分反映了终端倍数压缩10%的预期，并接近反映20%的压缩。然而，如果AI对 商业模式的冲击导致终端倍数压缩幅度达到30%，股价恐将跌至"解放日低点"甚至更低。 对投资者而言，尽管短期内可能因超卖出现反弹，但AI 带来的长期不确定性意味着软件股的"躺赢"时代结束，未来将进入剧烈的个股分化阶段。 花旗研报强调，软件与服务板块的暴跌（年初至今下跌20%，自2025年10月29日以来下跌28%）核心驱动力是对AI相关颠覆的担忧。这种担忧虽 然尚未完全体现在短期财报数字中，但已在股价上显露无疑——即通过"终端倍数压缩"的形式呈现。 微软作为该行业权重的核心（占比55%），其自1月28日财报发布以来的17%跌幅主导了整个板块的走势。花旗认为，市场正在迅速计入未来利润 率降低的预期，导致对长期增长前景的重新评估。尽管近期基本面依然强劲，但估值逆风 ...

英国首相斯塔默的政治生涯正面临生死存亡时刻。因任命涉爱泼斯坦案的Peter Mandelson为驻美大使，斯塔默 的核心幕僚团队在24小时内接连辞职，内阁大臣私下要求其下台或威胁辞职，英国政坛陷入剧烈动荡。 这场政治危机迅速蔓延至金融市场。周一，英国富时100指数小幅下跌，英镑兑欧元一度下跌0.5%，创1月22日 以来最低水平，但随后收复部分失地，英国10年期国债收益率上升，接近去年11月以来高点。对冲基金正通过 期权市场大举押注英镑进一步走弱，欧元兑英镑期权交易量创2019年以来新高。 "他最高级顾问的辞职可能为斯塔默争取一些时间，但后座议员普遍不满的迹象，加上糟糕透顶的民 调结果，正在制造他的日子屈指可数的印象。" 对冲基金正通过期权市场加大看跌英镑的押注。法国兴业银行全球外汇期权交易主管Thomas Bureau表示，对冲 基金流入"欧元兑英镑的方向单一，大量买入看涨期权"。2月5日，欧元兑英镑期权交易量达到2019年以来最高 水平，看涨期权（押注英镑走弱）的交易量比看跌期权多50%。 未来一个月的隐含波动率处于去年12月以来最高水平。高盛预计英镑兑欧元将在12个月内下跌6%，野村证券预 计到4月底将下 ...

诺和诺德股价延续反弹势头，因远程医疗公司Hims & Hers Health Inc（下称Hims & Hers）迫于监管与法律压力，撤销了推出低价仿制减肥药的计 划。这一消息显著缓解了市场对于诺和诺德核心产品面临廉价仿制药冲击的担忧，巩固了其在GLP-1药物市场的护城河。 监管收紧与竞争对手撤退 Hims & Hers试图推出的这款售价49美元的复合减肥药，其核心成分是司美格鲁肽，这正是诺和诺德旗下重磅药物Wegovy和Ozempic的关键成分。 该产品一发布，便迅速招致了这家丹麦制药商以及监管机构的强烈反对。 据路透社报道，在诺和诺德和FDA发出法律与监管威胁后，Hims & Hers于刚刚过去的周末迅速改变了立场。该公司周六声明称，已决定停止提供 该款治疗药物。这一撤回举动直接推动了诺和诺德在法兰克福股市周一上涨。 在此之前，FDA局长Marty Makary关于打击未经授权复合GLP-1药物的表态，已为市场注入了一剂强心针。这类复合药物一直被视为挑战诺和诺 德在减肥药和糖尿病市场定价权的主要威胁。受此监管风向转变影响，诺和诺德股价在上周五已率先反弹超过5%。 在法兰克福上市的诺和诺德股价周一涨超8%， ...

Core Viewpoint - Seres is attempting to clarify its market positioning by spinning off its budget electric vehicle brand, Blue Electric, into a separate company, thereby enhancing its high-end label in the capital market [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy - On February 9, Seres announced a cooperation agreement with the Shapingba District government in Chongqing to establish a new independent company by spinning off assets related to its electric vehicle brand, Blue Electric [1]. - The new company's ownership structure reveals that the Shapingba District government will hold approximately 33.5%, while Seres and its designated entities will hold about 32%, with an employee stock ownership plan accounting for 16% [1]. - This move allows Seres to transition from a controlling shareholder to a minority shareholder, effectively "off-balance-sheet" for Blue Electric [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Blue Electric, launched in March 2023, targets the budget market segment priced between 100,000 to 150,000 yuan, but has not been reported as a separate division in Seres' financial statements [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the sales figures for the Aito series reached approximately 152,000 units, while Blue Electric only sold about 20,000 units, highlighting a significant performance gap [2]. - Seres' gross margin reached a historical high of 28.93% in the first half of 2025, driven by the high average selling prices of the Aito models, while Blue Electric is likely operating at a loss or minimal profit due to intense price competition [2]. Group 3: Market Challenges - The electric vehicle market is experiencing intense competition, particularly in the low-price segment, which is suppressing the valuation of listed companies [3]. - Seres has seen a dramatic increase in sales expenses, rising from 4 billion yuan in 2022 to 18.1 billion yuan in 2024, with sales expenses accounting for nearly one-third of revenue in the first half of 2025 [3]. - Concerns about Seres' independence and long-term value have persisted, with over 75 billion yuan paid to Huawei from 2022 to the first half of 2025, representing over 30% of total procurement [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The spin-off of Blue Electric is viewed as a resource reallocation strategy, allowing Seres to focus on core technology research and strategic planning amid increasing internal competition within Huawei's ecosystem [4]. - Seres has established a production base in Indonesia with an annual capacity of about 20,000 units, but the utilization rate was only 4% in the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in converting brand potential into actual sales [4]. - The company is also venturing into the "mobile intelligent body" sector, with the establishment of a new subsidiary focused on smart robotics and AI model development [5]. Group 5: Innovation and Growth - The appointment of a key executive responsible for developing a super-range extension system as the legal representative of the new company signals Seres' intent to leverage its hardware and software capabilities in the next generation of smart terminals [5]. - Seres is actively collaborating with institutions like ByteDance and Beihang University, and is intensively recruiting in the field of embodied intelligent models, aiming to transition beyond mere vehicle manufacturing [5]. - The ability of Seres to independently achieve global delivery and breakthroughs in embodied intelligence, without Huawei's direct support, will be crucial for its future market valuation [5].

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 2月6日，商务部召开汽车企业座谈会，研究汽车流通消费有关工作。汽车行业相关协会、研究机构和企 业代表参会。商务部副部长盛秋平同志出席座谈会并进行交流。 盛秋平表示，汽车业是国民经济的战 略性、支柱性产业，是稳增长、扩内需、发展新质生产力的重要领域。2025年，商务部会同各相关单位 和全行业共同努力、迎难而上，我国汽车行业交出了一份亮眼成绩单，汽车持续发挥消费市场"顶梁 柱"作用。 盛秋平指出，我国超大规模市场基础牢，汽车消费链条长潜力大，政策接续实施支撑稳，全 链条扩大汽车消费大有可为。2026年，商务部将会同相关部门，坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，存量措 施和增量政策集成发力，优化实施汽车以旧换新，开展汽车流通消费改革试点，完善行业管理制度，多 措并举推动汽车消费扩容提质。 风险提示及免责条款 ...