国际地缘局势在不断演进，全球经济格局也在不断重塑，外部环境的深刻复杂变化和不确定性，需要我 们以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性予以对冲，因此，加快推进全国统一大市场建设的重要性就 越发凸显。 毫无疑问，全国统一大市场的理念正在不断深入。国庆长假期间，一位知名老专家对本世纪初实施东北 地区等老工业基地振兴战略的分析，也再次加深了人们对区域发展再平衡、产业链构建、产业振兴和全 国统一大市场建设的认知和思考。 可见，期货市场运行早期就已初步起到牵动产业链、经济链、社会链"牛鼻子"的效用，以精巧的市场化 手段把产业链上下游及社会周边相关资源有效地配置起来，成功地带动和推动了经济领域的市场化改革 和思想观念的深层更迭。 不管是价格发现、风险管理、资源配置的三大基础功能发挥，还是标准理念、规则意识、库存信号的市 场统一引领，期货市场在推进全国统一大市场建设中具有牵一发而动全身的特殊价值。近年来接连发布 的相关重磅政策充分说明，期货市场已经被赋予了国家宏观经济治理重要抓手的独特地位。 在这一过程中，需要特别提及但又容易被忽视的是，期货市场30多年来为实体经济产业链上下游培养和 输送了一批批既有国际视野又有风控能力的期货 ...

从基本面看，三季度锂价波动剧烈，受供给面与资金面影响，呈现"急涨急跌"的特征。海通期货新能源 组分析师王博隆表示，长期来看，碳酸锂需求改善更值得关注：8月碳酸锂需求环比增超7%，储能板块 表现突出，预计2026年储能电池需求仍有40%~50%的增长空间，为锂盐需求提供支撑。同时，正极材 料价格回暖，反映下游产业链正在逐步修复。 近日，工业和信息化部等部门联合印发的《汽车行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》与《电子信 息制造业2025—2026年稳增长行动方案》（下称《行动方案》），为汽车、新能源等国家重点产业注入 政策"强心剂"。作为锂电池关键原料的碳酸锂，未来存在哪些交易机会？ 市场人士普遍认为，目前的政策信号已十分明确，既要推进传统消费与制造业持续发展，也要推动新能 源产业链深度转型。 齐盛期货新能源分析师杜崇睿表示，汽车是稳增长的重点领域，政策明确支持新能源汽车的推广与产 销。作为新能源汽车核心部件，锂电池需求将随汽车市场增长而提升，进而顺畅传导至上游碳酸锂。与 此同时，电力装备领域政策亦利好锂电，锂电池在储能领域应用潜力大，政策有望加速推进，提振正极 材料企业订单。此外，《有色金属行业稳增长 ...

美股三大指数集体收跌 美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.2%，纳指跌0.67%，标普500指数跌0.38%。热门科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌超4%，谷歌跌超1%，AMD涨超3%，英特 尔涨超1%。加密货币概念、半导体设备与材料跌幅居前，Strategy跌超8%，科休半导体跌超7%，科磊跌超4%，阿斯麦跌近4%，Coinbase跌超2%。煤 炭、日用消费板块走高，雅诗兰黛涨超4%，宝洁、金佰利涨超1%。 | 道琼斯 | 46602.98 | | --- | --- | | | | | 纳斯达克 22788.36 -153.30 -0.67% | | | | | | 标普500 | 6714.59 | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.24%，热门中概股普跌，世纪互联跌超6%，万国数据跌超5%，百度跌超4%，阿里巴巴、金山云跌超3%，哔哩哔哩跌近 3%，京东、名创优品、理想汽车跌超2%。 COMEX黄金期货收涨0.79%，报4007.9美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货收跌1.64%，报47.655美元/盎司。 WTI原油期货收涨0.06%，报61.73美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收跌0.03%，报65.45美元/桶。 法国国债市场 ...

分析人士认为，美国政府"停摆"引发的避险情绪升温，黄金配置需求再度被推高。受金价持续走高影 响，周一相关港股集体走强。截至10月6日收盘，紫金黄金国际涨8.2%，山东黄金（600547）涨5.2%， 赤峰黄金（600988）涨4.8%。 国庆假期接近尾声，国际金价触及4000美元/盎司。10月7日，COMEX黄金期货价格最高触及4000.1美 元/盎司，截至发稿，纽约期金涨幅收窄至0.15%左右，报3982.2美元/盎司，年初至今涨超44%。 高盛在近期发布的报告中提到，近期金价上涨主要反应了三大"坚定买方"加大购买黄金：快速增长的西 方ETF仓位、各国央行可能重新加速购买，以及投机仓位的提升。尤其是西方黄金ETF的配置在9月份 意外强劲。 ...

早上好，来看一些热点消息。 据央视报道，当地时间10月6日，美国国会参议院对民主党提出的旨在结束政府"关门"的拨款法案进行表决，最终以45票赞成、50票反对，法案 未获通过。随后，参议院将投票表决共和党版临时拨款法案。 纳指、标普500指数、金价再创历史新高 美国股市在周一迎来新一轮上涨潮，纳指与标普500指数双双创历史新高，市场情绪高涨。 截至收盘，道指跌0.14%，纳指涨0.71%，标普500指数涨0.36%。其中，AMD盘中一度涨37.6%，最终收涨23.71%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨 1%，热门中概股多数上涨。 | 美股指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | 46694.97 | 22941.67 | 6740.28 | | -63.31 -0.14% +161.16 +0.71% | | +24.49 +0.36% | | 中国金龙 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 8838.50 | 25184.00 | 6790.25 | | +87.68 +1.00% +192.00 +0.77% +26.25 +0.39% ...

与铜市的强势不同，其他有色金属品种价格表现相对平淡。张天骜分析，全球经济数据疲软是重要制约 因素。8月以来，美国"对等关税"实施，国内外经济数据普遍不及预期，下游需求"旺季不旺"特征明 显，房地产行业持续萎缩削弱金属消费，汽车行业则需依赖出口增长，对金属需求的拉动有限。 "今年以来，铜价领涨有色板块，业内预计这一趋势将在四季度延续。"刘培洋称，从供给端看，9月份 印尼Grasberg铜矿发生重大事故，直接导致全球第二大铜矿停产。另外，该公司还下调2026年全年铜产 量指引35%，即26.95万吨，进一步加剧了全球铜矿的紧张预期。SMM预计，2025年全球铜精矿供需平 衡结果为-26.8万吨，2026年的结果为-30.8万吨，直到2028年才会转化为过剩8.8万吨。此外，铜精矿加 工费维持低位、铜冶炼副产品硫酸价格下跌、行业"反内卷"等均将支撑铜价走高。 近日，工业和信息化部等八部门联合印发的《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》（下 称《方案》），为未来有色金属行业的发展指明了方向。分析人士认为，在美联储开启降息周期、国内 政策利好预期升温的宏观背景下，叠加印尼铜矿事故等供给端扰动，四季度有 ...

9月下旬，工业和信息化部等五部门印发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》（下称《方 案》）。从公布的主要举措看，《方案》延续了近年来钢铁行业调控思路：加大产能置换力度，继续实 施产量压减政策，按照支持先进企业发展、倒逼落后低效产能退出的原则落实年度产量调控任务，促进 供需动态平衡；推进钢铁企业分级分类管理；增加高端产品供给；原燃料方面，强调保供稳价，鼓励焦 煤及废钢进口等。 期货日报记者注意到，9月以来的一些行业稳增长方案，涉及钢铁、石化、建材、汽车等多个传统基础 行业，体现出在行业转型发展阶段，政府对这些传统行业的重视。这些行业多是中国经济的基本盘，但 从细分行业观察，转型发展阶段又都面临各自不同的机遇与挑战。 "整体稳增长政策导向是强调行业自律，不搞区域价格恶性竞争，强化产业链上下游的强链合作，加大 产品研发和创新，积极拓展新的产品和新的市场，在减量发展的同时，结合人工智能等新技术的应用， 企业实现高质量低碳转型发展。" 江苏富实数据研究院院长蔡拥政说。 中辉期货黑色负责人陈为昌告诉记者，《方案》内容并未出现具体的粗钢调控数量目标，且强调了原燃 料供给要避免"一刀切"，产业链供应端出现短时间 ...

Group 1: Negotiations and Political Developments - A Hamas delegation led by Khalil Hayya has arrived in Egypt for negotiations with Israel on October 6, focusing on a ceasefire "20-point plan" and the conditions for personnel exchange [2][4] - The Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced it will host talks between Israel and Hamas, with participation from U.S. Middle East envoy and other mediators [2][4] - Eight foreign ministers from Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar issued a joint statement supporting efforts to end the Gaza war and welcomed Hamas's readiness to transfer administrative control of Gaza to a transitional Palestinian authority [6][7] Group 2: Military Readiness and Operations - Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, stated that the military must be prepared to resume combat operations, indicating that the current pause is due to diplomatic efforts rather than a formal ceasefire [4][5] - The Israeli military conducted surprise drills simulating Hamas attacks during a recent inspection, highlighting ongoing military readiness [5] Group 3: Oil Production and Market Dynamics - Eight major oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided to maintain an increase in oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, aiming for greater market share [9][10] - The decision to adjust production levels comes amid a relatively stable global economic outlook and low oil inventory levels [11] - The increase in production is a response to previous voluntary cuts, with the eight countries having extended their reduction measures until March 2025 [12] Group 4: Shipping and Freight Market Trends - The European shipping market has shown weak performance, with spot rates continuing to decline, and a significant number of scheduled voyages being canceled due to overcapacity and weak demand [19][20] - The Drewry World Container Index reported an 8% week-on-week drop in freight rates, reaching the lowest level since early 2024, indicating ongoing challenges in the shipping sector [19] - Analysts suggest that the shipping market may experience temporary tightness post-holidays, but overall conditions are expected to remain loose due to increased capacity compared to the previous year [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan for the steel industry aimed at stabilizing growth from 2025 to 2026, emphasizing capacity replacement, production reduction, and support for advanced enterprises while phasing out inefficient capacities [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The plan continues the trend of recent years in regulating the steel industry, focusing on increasing capacity replacement and implementing production reduction policies to maintain supply-demand balance [1]. - It promotes the classification and management of steel enterprises and aims to increase the supply of high-end products while ensuring stable prices and supply of raw materials [1][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite a downward trend in steel prices in the first half of the year, the overall profitability of steel mills has improved due to a larger decrease in raw material prices compared to steel prices [2]. - The third quarter has seen a strong trend in raw material prices, with iron ore prices rebounding to around $107 per ton due to inventory replenishment by steel mills and unstable overseas shipments [2][3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Outlook - The overall supply of steel remains abundant due to high iron water production, while demand is supported by shipbuilding, automotive, and strong exports, but is weakened by real estate and infrastructure sectors [3]. - The fourth quarter is expected to see a seasonal decline in construction steel demand, with limited potential for significant increases in rolled steel and exports [3]. Group 4: Industry Perspectives - Industry experts have differing views on the fourth-quarter steel market, with some indicating that the steel industry will face challenges in profitability management compared to the first half of the year [4]. - The plan emphasizes the need to implement annual crude steel production control tasks and achieve ultra-low emission transformation by the end of 2025, with a potential reduction space of around 10 million tons [4]. Group 5: Future Trends - The plan also highlights the importance of establishing a carbon footprint accounting standard system and promoting digital carbon management centers in anticipation of carbon trading market inclusion [5][6]. - Looking ahead to 2026, there is cautious optimism regarding the steel industry, with expectations of improved demand for construction steel and favorable conditions for steel exports, despite potential adjustments in export regions and product types due to tariffs [6].

Core Viewpoint - The "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" emphasizes a transformation direction of "stabilizing total volume and optimizing structure," avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach to capacity reduction [1][2] Policy Impact on Chemical Prices - The plan focuses on controlling new capacity and upgrading existing facilities rather than eliminating current capacity, indicating that supply will not significantly shrink in the short term [1][2] - The core contradiction in the chemical market remains high capacity investment with weak demand, leading to a pessimistic market outlook despite policy changes [2] Specific Chemical Products Analysis - The plan supports refining enterprises to "reduce oil and increase chemicals," which may increase the total supply of chemical products, particularly affecting prices of basic chemicals like synthetic resins and ethylene glycol [2][5] - PX is viewed positively by multiple institutions due to the peak of capacity expansion being over, with no new capacity expected from 2024 to 2025, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance [3][4] - Ethylene is still in a capacity expansion cycle, and while the policy may slow down supply growth, the basic market remains loose, with price fluctuations expected to be limited [4] Long-term Market Opportunities - The policy aims to curb blind capacity expansion and improve the supply-demand mismatch, potentially increasing industry profit margins by 3-5 percentage points by 2026 [3] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in three areas: high-end fine chemicals, green transition sectors, and companies with integrated layouts and technological advantages [5] Short-term Trading Strategies - Short-term trading strategies should focus on "swing trading" to avoid blind chasing of price increases, with attention to short-term mismatches due to policy windows and facility maintenance [6] - Investors are advised to be cautious of the potential for policy expectations to be overvalued in the market, particularly in high-end products [6]