1月15日，中辉期货在山西太原成功举办黑色产业风险管理大会。本次会议得到山西省期货业协会大力支持，汇聚5位 来自期货公司、产业企业、投资机构及咨询领域的核心专家。会议由中辉期货资管部投资经理王维芒主持。 针对处于深度调整与结构重塑期的黑色产业链，会议围绕"风险管理"，从宏观战略、中观市场、微观实战与工具应用 等多维度展开深入探讨。5位嘉宾的分享，展现出产业企业在不确定性中主动管理风险、借助金融工具实现稳健经营 的发展路径。会议吸引全国60余家煤焦钢企业共110名嘉宾参与。 "作为从山西走向全国的金融机构，中辉期货不忘家乡情，通过'晋享汇'项目平台持续联动全国资源，致力于将前沿的 策略与模式带回服务一线，赋能本土企业在波动中行稳致远。"王斌说。 河南驰戍公司韩经博聚焦于专业性极强的月差交易(跨期套利)，分享了其公司从传统的基差贸易到系统化开展做市业 务的经验。 韩经博将月差理解为"基差在盘面的二次反映"，其波动由资金驱动(如交割博弈)和预期驱动(近月反映现实、远月反映 预期)共同决定，核心是"双轮驱动分析框架"：一方面，通过基本面分析定框架，即判断商品所处的周期位置(如底部 启动、牛市顶部、下跌周期等)，结合季 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released a draft for the "Regulations on the Supervision and Management of Derivative Transactions (Trial) (Draft for Comments)" aimed at standardizing derivative trading, enhancing market transparency, protecting legal rights, and mitigating financial risks [1][7]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The draft consists of 57 articles that clarify regulations on derivative trading, settlement, traders, operating institutions, market infrastructure, supervision, and legal responsibilities [2]. - The scope of the draft includes derivative trading venues and institutions regulated by the CSRC, excluding the interbank derivative market and OTC markets organized by banks and insurance institutions [2]. - The draft affirms the role of the derivative market in risk management, resource allocation, and serving the real economy, while encouraging hedging activities and limiting excessive speculation [2][7]. Group 2: Trading Principles and Restrictions - Derivative operating institutions are prohibited from promoting derivative contracts through advertising or public solicitation [3]. - Derivative transactions must be confirmed through a master agreement, detailing contract elements such as underlying assets, nominal principal, transaction direction, and fees [3]. - The draft mandates that operating institutions maintain reasonable leverage levels and market sizes, and enhance the standardization of derivative trading [2][3]. Group 3: Corporate Governance and Compliance - Listed companies are restricted from engaging in derivative transactions based on their own stock, with exceptions as per laws and regulations [4]. - Companies must establish internal controls and risk management systems when participating in derivative trading and comply with disclosure obligations [4]. - Derivative operating institutions must separate derivative trading from proprietary trading and implement effective measures to prevent conflicts of interest [6]. Group 4: Enhanced Supervision and Risk Management - The draft imposes higher requirements on derivative operating institutions, including risk control indicators, governance structure, and qualified personnel [6]. - Institutions are required to manage margin on a daily basis and establish pricing and valuation management systems for derivatives [6]. - The draft aims to create a comprehensive risk management framework covering all market participants, enhancing compliance and professional capabilities [8][9]. Group 5: Market Development and Future Outlook - The draft is seen as a significant step in building a regulatory framework for the derivative market, filling existing regulatory gaps and complementing current laws [7]. - It encourages the development of derivatives that meet medium- to long-term funding needs while restricting speculative activities [7][9]. - The overall aim is to transition the domestic derivative market from extensive to high-quality development, supporting economic growth [9].

随着反内卷政策的推进及部分生产线冷修，玻璃价格多次出现阶段性的快速反弹，但这种突发的供应端 变化往往会给市场带来更多的是短期的冲击，因下游订单长期偏弱，导致反弹乏力，甚至价格会快速回 落至前期低点。从预期来看，虽短时供应预期下行对玻璃价格存在提振作用，但未来玻璃整体供需格局 仍偏宽松，若无政策强力提振需求，则玻璃每轮反弹的上方空间也可能同样受到限制。 中长期需关注两大关键变量：一是房地产竣工数据能否企稳回升，这是需求端真正改善的核心信号；二 是产能出清速度，若行业亏损持续扩大推动更多产线冷修，日熔量降至15万吨以下，供需格局有望迎来 根本性转变。在此之前，玻璃期货价格大概率维持"低位宽幅区间震荡"的偏弱格局，建议投资者警惕每 次预期炒作后的回落风险。 ...

一、1月12日豆粕远月基差成交百万吨 1月12日，全国油厂豆粕放量成交，为116.13万吨(其中远月基差成交107.7万吨，东北、华北、华中及两 广地区均贡献显著增量，成交标的集中指向5-7远月基差合同)。远月的盘面榨利，为油厂提供了套保与 预售契机，此外，华南地区主流为基差贸易形式，以广东地区为例，5-7月基差报价为05合约贴水30元/ 吨，较为便宜，成交放量，油厂的潜在库存向中下游企业转移。 二、1月USDA报告利空 1月13日凌晨，美农发布1月USDA报告。 巴西方面，新作大豆产量因南部产区降雨改善，故产量预期上调300万吨至1.78亿吨；其国内压榨量小 幅增加100万吨至6000万吨，国内消费量增加110万吨至6440万吨。出口量因中国需求采购增加及本国产 量前景良好，较上期涨150万吨至11400万吨。产量增幅略微大于需求增幅，库存期末库存为3691万吨 (较上期增加40万吨)。 12月11日，国家粮食交易中心拍卖2022年及2023年产进口大豆51.25万吨，实际成交39.7万吨，成交率 77.5%，成交均价3935.3元/吨，交货日期为2025年12月22日至2026年2月28日。 12月16日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting to summarize the work of 2025 and plan for 2026, emphasizing the need for risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development in the capital market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Stability and Development - The CSRC highlighted the importance of building a risk prevention mechanism, achieving significant breakthroughs in attracting medium- and long-term capital, and showing signs of market recovery [3]. - In 2025, the CSRC handled 701 cases of securities and futures violations, imposing fines totaling 15.47 billion yuan, enhancing the effectiveness of regulatory enforcement [3]. - The total amount of cash dividends and buybacks by listed companies reached 2.68 trillion yuan, indicating a further accumulation of high-quality development momentum [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Enhancements - The CSRC is committed to strengthening the "five major regulations" and accelerating the establishment of a comprehensive punishment and prevention system for financial fraud [3]. - The meeting emphasized the need for stricter enforcement against financial fraud, price manipulation, and insider trading, while improving the administrative-criminal connection mechanism [5]. - The CSRC aims to enhance the regulatory effectiveness and deterrence by promoting more representative lawsuits and early compensation cases [5]. Group 3: Reform and Innovation - The CSRC plans to deepen investment and financing reforms, including the implementation of the "1+6" policy for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the introduction of a third set of standards for the Growth Enterprise Market [3]. - The total amount of IPOs and refinancing reached 1.26 trillion yuan, with the bond market issuing various bonds totaling 16.3 trillion yuan [3]. - The CSRC is focused on promoting the integration and high-quality development of the Beijing Stock Exchange and the New Third Board [5]. Group 4: Governance and Party Leadership - The meeting underscored the importance of strengthening the Party's leadership over the capital market and enhancing the accountability of the CSRC [6]. - The CSRC is committed to improving the governance of listed companies and enhancing the constraints on controlling shareholders and actual controllers [6]. - The meeting called for a focus on building a loyal, clean, and responsible cadre team within the CSRC to support comprehensive and strict Party governance [7].

Group 1 - The overall trend of copper prices is strong, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange breaking through 105,500 yuan/ton [1] - The relationship between supply and demand ultimately determines commodity prices, with copper market inventory changes reflecting the balance between consumption and replenishment [1] - The marginal signals from supply and demand are more easily captured by the market when macroeconomic conditions support copper prices, leading to increased price elasticity [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows a stable correlation between LME copper inventory and price trends, with inventory changes providing significant guidance for assessing global supply and demand balance [2] - During periods of inventory accumulation, prices tend to be under pressure, while during inventory depletion, prices usually receive support [2] - In specific phases, macroeconomic factors may have a more dominant impact on prices than inventory levels, as seen during the European debt crisis [2] Group 3 - The structure of warehouse receipts, particularly the proportion of canceled warehouse receipts, is a crucial indicator for assessing inventory trends [3] - A decrease in the proportion of canceled warehouse receipts typically indicates a slowdown in inventory depletion, with historical patterns suggesting a higher probability of inventory turning points when this ratio falls to around 15% or lower [3] - Current copper price trends show similarities to early 2006, with increasing U.S. copper inventory and tighter inventory in non-U.S. regions indicating regional disparities [3] Group 4 - If low inventory levels persist and macroeconomic factors continue to provide support, copper prices have a solid basis for upward movement [4] - The negative correlation between copper inventory and prices remains stable, with current macroeconomic conditions being generally positive and market risk appetite recovering [4] - Attention should be paid to potential disruptions in prices due to changes in the macroeconomic environment, weakening demand, and fluctuations in inventory structure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the impact of geopolitical conflicts, specifically the airstrikes in Venezuela, on the oil futures market, emphasizing the volatility and risks associated with such events [1][2]. Group 1: Market Impact - Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, and while its export volume is low, the airstrike news is expected to influence market dynamics significantly [1]. - Geopolitical conflict news often serves as a catalyst for market fluctuations, particularly in the futures market where every moment can conceal substantial risks [1]. Group 2: Industry Response - The urgency of the situation prompted immediate outreach to analysts and traders for their insights and predictions, reflecting the industry's 24/7 nature and the constant readiness to respond to market changes [2]. - The process of gathering opinions and organizing information is crucial for understanding the market's direction amidst geopolitical tensions and capital dynamics [2]. Group 3: Professional Commitment - The article underscores the commitment of futures market reporters to provide valuable insights to investors, emphasizing the importance of responsibility and insight in navigating capital storms [3]. - The experience gained over a decade in the futures industry reinforces the dedication to illuminating the path for the industry amidst uncertainties [3].

Group 1 - The futures market is characterized by constant fluctuations influenced by geopolitical changes, policy adjustments, and unexpected events, requiring traders to adapt their strategies flexibly [1] - Market volatility creates uncertainty but also presents hidden opportunities, necessitating a proactive approach to data analysis and strategy development [1] - Professionals in the industry must maintain a clear mind and sharp insight under pressure, continuously monitoring global news and market changes to capitalize on fleeting opportunities [1] Group 2 - The ability to remain calm and adjust strategies in response to unexpected events is a valuable skill developed in the futures market, which can also enhance personal life experiences [2][3]

白银价格为何出现剧烈波动？南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹认为，主要是受一份美国232 调查公告影响。此前，美国总统特朗普推迟对关键矿物进口征收新的关税，但不排除这种可能性，加剧 了全球白银库存短缺。1月15日公布的一份由特朗普总统签署的《调整美国加工关键矿物及其衍生产品 的进口公告》则显示，美国商务部完成数月调查后，认定加工关键矿物及其衍生品进口威胁国家安全， 但特朗普选择通过谈判达成协议而非立即征税，这引发白银价格跳水。从公告内容来看，特朗普认为有 必要且适当与贸易伙伴进行谈判，调整关键矿物及其衍生品的进口量，以确保此类进口不会对美国国家 安全构成威胁；根据谈判结果，特朗普未来可能会考虑其他补救措施，包括对特定类型的关键矿物设定 最低进口价格等。 "周四白银价格剧烈波动是宏观政策和市场博弈共同作用的结果。一方面，当前美国暂不对关键矿产清 单内商品征税，白银属于清单内商品，市场预期这可能导致美国货源流出，构成一定利空。另一方面， 白银价格屡创历史新高，市场同时存在追涨需求和获利离场需求，因而在消息和市场情绪影响下，市场 波动进一步放大，表现出短线大幅下跌后的反复震荡博弈。"金瑞期货贵金属研究员吴梓杰说 ...

Group 1 - The current winter season has led to a significant decline in construction activities in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, particularly in northern regions due to low temperatures and frequent rain and snow, resulting in a traditional off-peak season for construction steel consumption [1] - Market focus is on the winter storage process, with some steel mills in Northeast and North China implementing winter storage policies, although traders generally have a pessimistic outlook on future consumption, leading to low enthusiasm for winter storage [1] - As of January 9, 247 steel mills reported a total pig iron output of 2.295 million tons, marking a three-week consecutive increase, but overall profits for steel mills remain low, particularly for hot-rolled coils, which are in a loss-making state, limiting the potential for increased pig iron output [1] Group 2 - As of January 9, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at 47 national ports reached 170.44 million tons, the highest seasonal level in recent years, while global major mining companies are steadily releasing production capacity [2] - BHP's iron ore production in Western Australia reached a record 257 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year, with production guidance for the 2026 fiscal year set between 251 million and 262 million tons, maintaining levels similar to the previous year [2] - Vale's S11D project expansion is progressing steadily, with an expected additional capacity of 20 million tons, aiming for full production in the second half of 2026, and a target of 335 million to 345 million tons for 2026 iron ore production, an increase of approximately 5 million tons from 2025 [2] Group 3 - Rio Tinto's West Pilbara iron ore project is designed to compensate for resource depletion in the Pilbara region, with a planned annual capacity of 25 million tons, expected to be fully operational by June 2025, and production is anticipated to grow in 2026 compared to 2025 [3] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, the largest undeveloped high-grade iron ore resource globally, is set to ship its first batch of 200,000 tons by December 2025, with a target production of 5 to 10 million tons in 2026 [3] - Non-mainstream iron ore projects are also contributing to production increases, with the Onslow iron ore project expected to achieve stable production in early 2026, projecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 7 million tons [3] Group 4 - The steel market is currently in a traditional off-peak season, with weak downstream consumption expectations and low enthusiasm for winter storage among traders, which will suppress the upward trend of steel prices [4] - Low profit margins for steel mills are limiting the potential for increased pig iron output, leading to weak growth in iron ore consumption [4] - Port inventories are at historically high levels, and the total supply from the four major mining companies and non-mainstream miners is expected to increase year-on-year, leading to a more relaxed supply-demand balance in the iron ore market [4]