"铂、钯的核心矛盾在于其工业属性占比过重，且面临各自独特的基本面挑战。"顾冯达解释称，尽管铂 有氢能经济的长期愿景和供应短缺作为故事支撑，但欧盟推迟燃油车禁令仅为传统汽车催化剂需求提供 了一个缓冲期，并未改变新能源车的长期替代趋势；钯的处境则更为尴尬，其需求严重依赖内燃机汽 车，而电动化转型无疑是对其最直接且不可逆的冲击。在此轮"牛市"中，铂、钯更多是扮演"高弹性配 角"的角色，其上涨动能高度依赖板块整体情绪的溢出，而非独立的产业驱动，因此易受海外金银价格 异动的联动影响。 从基本面看，当前铂市场开始重新小幅累库，钯市场仍处于去库态势。数据显示，截至1月16日当周， NYMEX铂库存上升至66.44万盎司，约合20.67吨，注册仓单占比变动不大，为55.7%；同期，NYMEX 钯库存下降至20.70万盎司，约合6.57吨，钯的注册仓单占比抬升至67%。 "上周广期所铂、钯期货价格似乎向上动能不足，整体表现比较乏力，几次尝试触碰前高均未果。同 时，伴随白银价格回撤，铂、钯价格从高位回落。"国泰君安期货高级分析师刘雨萱表示，当前，铂、 钯市场进入易跌难涨的盘整期，但下方的韧性还算健康，外盘铂价2200美元／盎司、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver price has reached new highs despite rumors of a potential decline due to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) rebalancing, driven by strong investment demand and supply constraints [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Trends - As of January 16, the London silver price closed at $90.134 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 12.8%, peaking above $93 per ounce [1]. - COMEX silver futures saw a weekly increase of 13.37%, while Shanghai silver futures surged by 22.83% [1]. - The BCOM annual rebalancing period from January 8 to 14, 2026, is expected to have a short-term impact, with market participants likely to use any price dips as buying opportunities [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Investment demand for silver remains strong, with non-commercial net long positions on COMEX increasing from 30,000 contracts in late December to 32,000 contracts by January 13 [1]. - The global silver production dropped to 820 million ounces (approximately 25,800 tons) in 2025, a 12% decrease from the peak in 2020, while recycled silver supply has increased only slightly, insufficient to meet industrial demand [2]. - The ongoing supply constraints are expected to keep silver in a "bull market" due to a widening supply-demand gap [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Market Factors - Experts predict that silver prices will likely remain high in Q1 2026, with potential for further increases, although volatility is expected to rise due to various market factors [3]. - The U.S. government's decision to delay imposing tariffs on key minerals, including silver, may introduce short-term price correction risks [3]. - The rising costs in industries due to increasing silver prices have prompted companies, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, to accelerate the adoption of copper alternatives, although widespread replacement is not yet feasible [3][4]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Future silver trading should focus on whether positive factors have been fully priced in, such as ongoing declines in silver inventory and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [4]. - Monitoring risk control measures by exchanges is crucial, as decreased trading activity could halt the upward price momentum, leading to a "slow bull" market [4]. - Global geopolitical tensions may further accelerate silver price increases if they continue to escalate [4].

早上好！ 新的交易周来了，一起来看重要资讯。 欧盟多国考虑对930亿欧元输欧美国商品加征关税 据央视消息，欧盟多国正考虑对价值930亿欧元的输欧美国商品加征关税，或限制美国企业进入欧盟市 场，以反制美国总统特朗普为得到格陵兰岛而对欧洲8国加征关税。 一名欧盟外交官18日透露称，如果欧盟与美国未能达成协议，报复性关税将从2月6日起自动生效。 特朗普17日在社交媒体上宣布，将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬 兰的输美商品加征10%关税，并宣称加征关税的税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直到相关方就美国"全 面、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。 欧洲八国发表联合声明 目前的迹象表明，凯文·哈塞特已接近出局。尽管他对特朗普极度忠诚，但特朗普上周五对哈塞特直 言："我其实想把你留在这个位置上（白宫经济顾问）。" 目前看来，美联储主席一职极大概率将落入前美联储理事凯文·沃什囊中。 本周三，特朗普将在达沃斯发表重要演讲。美国财政部长贝森特预计，最终决定可能在特朗普启程前或 返回后公布。 宏观预期落空，铂、钯期价震荡下跌 上周，铂、钯期价呈现震荡下跌态势。截至1月16日收盘，铂期货主力合约PT2606 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the Shanghai "14th Five-Year" planning proposal emphasizes the acceleration of building "five centers" to enhance the city's capabilities and competitiveness, with a focus on futures and derivatives [1] - The proposal aims to strengthen Shanghai's position as an international financial center by establishing a global RMB asset allocation center and risk management center, expanding cross-border and offshore financial services, and promoting RMB internationalization [1][2] - It highlights the need for a robust financial market system, promoting direct financing, enhancing capital market functions, and developing a multi-tiered equity market while also focusing on the orderly development of futures and derivatives markets [2] Group 2 - The proposal includes plans to enhance the international trade center by strengthening the resource allocation function of bulk commodities and supporting the establishment of a national bulk commodity warehouse registration center [2] - In the context of building a global leading international shipping center, the proposal emphasizes the development of modern shipping services and the establishment of a world-class shipping exchange [3] - It supports the expansion of shipping financial services, including insurance and financing leasing for ships and aircraft, while also promoting the use of RMB for shipping freight settlements [3]

焦炭价格经过4轮提降后，上周开启2026年首轮涨价计划。上周五，不少企业已经收到该涨价函。 当前冬储情况对焦炭市场有何影响？卓桂秋认为，受钢材库存同比仍然偏高的压制，当前钢厂焦炭补库力度不足。数据显示，当前铁水日均产量同比偏 高，但钢厂焦炭库存同比偏低，库存可用天数约12天，较去年同期减少约1.6天。钢材"高库存过春节"的忧虑或将抑制钢厂冬储补库的积极性，钢厂焦炭 以按需补库为主。 "由于今年春节时间较晚，冬储补库时间较往年推后，而且从行业状态看，受制于终端需求预期不佳、高炉利润有限，多数钢厂补库意愿仍然谨慎，冬储 库存可用天数预计仅会提升至13~14天，补库强度比较有限。"陈为昌说。 记者在采访中获悉，当前焦炭行业的独立定价能力仍然不强，焦炭价格走势主要由焦煤、钢材等价格决定。焦煤方面，目前国内矿山处于复产阶段，产量 已持平于去年同期；进口端，近期蒙煤日通关量在17万吨左右，为历史同期最高水平。焦煤总供给存在继续上升的可能。钢材方面，当前宏观政策带来的 利多驱动比较有限，房地产以及基建需求改善迹象仍需观察，当前的需求难以支撑焦炭价格大幅上行。 对于焦炭后市，陈为昌认为，在钢厂利润未有改善、炉料供给整体处于偏 ...

2026年以来，市场关于白银价格或因彭博商品指数(BCOM)再平衡有所下行的传言甚嚣尘上。然而，在 供需格局及市场认知变化下，调整期内白银价格再创新高。截至1月16日，伦敦现银价格收于90.134美 元/盎司，周涨幅12.8%，最高突破93美元/盎司一线。与此同时，COMEX白银期货价格周涨幅13.37%， 上海白银期货价格周涨幅22.83%。 华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇表示，之所以上周白银价格未受BCOM权重再平衡影响，主要 有下几方面因素影响：一是白银的投资需求并没有下降。金融机构的配置需求和中小交易者的投资需 求，在部分被动基金平仓后成为新的购买力量。CFTC公布的数据显示，截至1月13日当周，COMEX白 银非商业净多持仓不降反升，从去年12月最后一周的3万手升至3.2万手。二是实物白银供应紧张导致企 业也大量买入白银进行保值。白银生产商等供应商降低卖出套保持仓，囤积待涨。去年四季度， COMEX白银商业净空持仓持续下降，从2025年9月底的8万手降至1月13日当周的5.5万手。 格林大华期货副总经理、首席专家王骏补充说，BCOM年度再平衡的交易窗口期被严格限定，本质上就 意味着本轮影响是短 ...

Core Viewpoint - The target prices for precious metals for 2026-2027 have been raised by multiple investment banks, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the market driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand fundamentals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - In 2025, the precious metals market experienced significant price increases, with international gold prices reaching new highs and a cumulative increase of 64.56% for the year, while domestic gold futures rose by 55.77% [1]. - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is expected to see a slowdown in employment and inflation in the U.S. economy, leading to a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and increased fiscal deficit pressure may position gold as a new pricing anchor in the monetary system, potentially allowing it to maintain a premium [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The allocation of gold by institutions is expected to increase, with continued support for gold prices from global central bank purchases and ETF demand [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, global gold demand reached 3,639.7 tons, marking an 11.7% year-on-year increase, driven by significant growth in ETF investment and central bank purchases [2]. - Geopolitical conflicts affecting key mineral resources have limited the growth of precious metal supplies, leading to tighter circulation inventories and potential supply-demand mismatches [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Considerations - Short-term trading strategies should consider market volatility and technical indicators, while long-term strategies can be aligned with global central bank gold purchases and ETF trends [2]. - Potential risks include the gradual release of AI's growth contributions in the U.S. economy post-2026, which could strengthen the dollar and exert downward pressure on precious metal prices [2]. - Overall, the precious metals market in 2026 is expected to retain strong investment value and premium space, with investors advised to monitor key variables such as U.S. employment, inflation, monetary policy, and central bank gold purchases [2].

Group 1 - The recent discussions between China and Canada have led to specific arrangements to address trade issues in electric vehicles, steel, aluminum products, canola seeds, and agricultural products [1] - China plans to adjust anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola seeds and discriminatory measures on certain agricultural products, potentially allowing Canadian canola seeds and meal to re-enter the Chinese market by March [1] - Current canola meal inventory in China is around 470,000 tons, with 150,000 to 200,000 tons expected to be from Canada in 2025, currently stored in bonded warehouses [1] Group 2 - The theoretical profit margin for importing Canadian canola seeds remains around 300 CNY per ton, considering a 15% import tariff and 9% VAT, but this may change with fluctuations in external prices [2] - The price of ICE canola seeds has started to rebound, and as China-Canada trade relations improve, the CNF price of Canadian canola seeds may also rise, potentially narrowing profit margins [2] - If tariff rates on Canadian canola seeds are adjusted after March, domestic oil mills may face tight supply conditions until then [2] Group 3 - The valuation of Chinese canola products is expected to become more internationalized, with international canola meal prices currently weak while Canadian canola oil prices are supported by the U.S. market [3] - The resumption of China-Canada canola trade is anticipated to gradually reflect supply pressures in the domestic market, with Canadian canola oil dependent on the fulfillment of U.S. RVO policies [3] - Domestic canola meal prices are approaching corn prices, and if prices decline further, demand for canola meal may improve [3]

昨夜今晨，美国又带来"头条"消息。这边，为了格陵兰岛，美国不断威胁欧洲盟友。那边，因为加沙问 题，又与"铁杆"以色列产生裂隙…… 美国这些"动作"引发了哪些反应？一起来看详细报道。 美国因格陵兰岛问题对欧洲8国加征关税 据央视消息，当地时间17日，美国总统特朗普表示，将从2月1日起对丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、 英国、荷兰和芬兰出口至美国的所有商品加征10%关税，加征关税的税率将从6月1日起提高至25%，直 至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。随后，多国发表声明回应。 瑞典首相克里斯特松当天发表书面声明，称"我们不会被勒索。只有丹麦和格陵兰岛才能决定涉及丹麦 和格陵兰岛的问题"。 丹麦外交大臣拉斯穆森当天称美国总统特朗普宣布的关税政策"令人意外"，他表示丹麦正与欧盟保持密 切对话。 挪威首相斯特勒当天在社交媒体发文指出，盟友之间不应存在威胁。他表示，"挪威的立场坚定：格陵 兰岛是丹麦的一部分。挪威完全支持丹麦的主权"。斯特勒还表示，北约内部就加强北极地区（包括格 陵兰岛）安全达成了广泛共识。 法国总统马克龙当天在社交媒体上表示，美国总统特朗普在法国支持格陵兰岛后发出的关税威胁是"不 可接受的"。 德国政 ...

"在目前价格水平下，综合多家投行预测，贵金属2026—2027年的目标价格均被进一步上调，表明在宏 观金融属性和供需基本面利好预期下，市场对贵金属长期走势持续看好，其价格中枢将逐步上抬，同时 高波动将成为常态。"近日，广发期货贵金属研究员叶倩宁在"期货大家谈"栏目直播中，对2026年黄金 市场走势进行了深度解读。 从供需格局看，机构对黄金的配置比例仍有上升空间。叶倩宁表示，2026年全球央行购金和ETF需求将 持续支撑金价。2025年前三季度全球黄金总需求为3639.7吨，同比增长11.7%，其中ETF投资需求显著 增长，全球央行购金也保持较快增长。此外，逆全球化加剧了各国在关键矿产资源上的争夺，贵金属矿 产供应受各主要产地的地缘冲突扰动，增长空间有限，流通库存偏紧时更容易出现供需错配。 叶倩宁表示，操作节奏上，短期建议结合市场波动率、技术面参考指标及交易所风控措施择时进行波段 交易，中长期则可参考全球央行购金以及黄金ETF趋势进行相应比例配置。 同时，她提示，若美国AI的"增长贡献"在2026年后渐进释放并推动美国经济复苏、美国财政赤字逐步收 敛、美元资产走强、美联储维持"鹰"派，可能对贵金属价格形成打压。 ...