Core Viewpoint - The Guangdong Provincial Financial Management Bureau, along with nine other departments, has issued a work plan to promote financial services for the construction of a technology-driven province, focusing on enhancing the role of futures and technology innovation indices in supporting technological advancements [1] Group 1: Financial Services and Futures - The plan proposes the implementation of a strong foundation for technology finance, aiming to systematically advance the futures and technology innovation index system to empower technological innovation [1] - There is an emphasis on refining the futures product segment for strategic emerging industries, particularly in the renewable energy sector [1] - The development and listing of futures products such as lithium hydroxide are prioritized to create a comprehensive system of renewable energy products [1] Group 2: Strategic Industry Support - The plan aims to steadily advance the research and development of major strategic products like carbon emission rights to support the growth of strategic emerging industries such as renewable energy and energy storage [1] - The role of indices and index-based investments is highlighted as a crucial link between capital market financing and investment, encouraging index institutions to focus on key regions, industries, and enterprises [1] Group 3: Investment Products and Innovation - Support is provided for securities and fund management institutions to develop technology-themed fund products that align with national strategies, enhancing active management capabilities directed towards technology enterprises [1] - The initiative seeks to enrich the categories of technology innovation indices and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), promoting the aggregation of more medium- to long-term capital towards the development of new productive forces [1] - The plan aims to further guide the functionality of technology innovation index fund tools in driving innovation-driven development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is investing in agricultural infrastructure and innovative financial tools to support local farmers in the Hongsi Fort area, enhancing their resilience against natural disasters and market fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Support Initiatives - The company has allocated 50,000 yuan to support the improvement of agricultural facilities, including the construction and maintenance of solar greenhouses and tunnels [1]. - A cooperation agreement has been signed with Hongsi Fort District to provide broader support, including helping local enterprises connect with multi-level capital markets and exploring financing tools like corporate bonds and medium-term notes [2]. Group 2: Risk Management and Financial Tools - The company is promoting a "futures + insurance" model to provide dual protection for local specialty agricultural products, addressing both price and disaster risks [1]. - The implementation of the "futures + insurance" model is expected to benefit hundreds of local farmers, significantly enhancing their risk management capabilities [2]. Group 3: Community Development and Talent Cultivation - The company plans to establish a scholarship fund for underprivileged university students and provide internship opportunities to cultivate local financial talent [2]. - The comprehensive support model combines hardware investment, financial tools, and capacity building, transitioning from "blood transfusion" aid to "blood production" development [2].

2024年螺纹钢价格上演"过山车"行情，全年高低位价差达1400元/吨，黑色产业链企业利润被压缩。华 北地区某钢厂有很多建材库存，通过买入看跌"安全气囊"期权创新策略，成功锁定3500元/吨成本线， 最终在价格跌破3000元/吨时仍实现80%下跌参与率，累计对冲库存2万吨，增收超240万元，为黑色产 业链企业风险管理提供了新范式。 项目背景 2024年黑色金属市场价格波动极大，年初螺纹钢价格上冲至4400元/吨，钢厂满负荷生产却遭遇"高成本 陷阱"；三季度在全球经济衰退预期及地产需求萎缩的背景下，螺纹钢价格断崖式下跌至3000元/吨，行 业亏损超200元/吨；同时基差收窄，华东地区现货基差从年初的200元/吨收窄至三季度的50元/吨，传统 期货套保面临"锁价即锁亏"困境。 图为钢厂建材盘面利润走势（元/吨） 在这样的市场环境下，套期保值作为企业规避市场风险的重要手段被广泛关注。然而，传统的套期保值 方法在复杂的市场环境中显得有些"力不从心"，难以实现理想的风险对冲效果。2024年中期，螺纹钢市 场的基差迅速收缩，这一变化如同给企业套期保值的利润空间又套上了金箍，不仅限制了企业套期保值 的有效性，还可能导致企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal and coke prices have shown a "V" shaped trend since December, with significant downward pressure initially, followed by a rebound due to positive market factors, although the supply-demand dynamics remain challenging [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures faced increased downward pressure after the main contract switched to 2605 at the beginning of December [1] - The market is experiencing a "double weakness" in supply and demand for coke, with slight declines in production from steel mills and independent coking enterprises [2] - Environmental alerts in northern regions have led to production restrictions, with coking enterprises reducing output by 20% to 35% [2] Group 2: Production and Utilization Rates - As of December 19, the capacity utilization rate for independent coking enterprises was 72.05%, down 1.11 percentage points, with daily production of metallurgical coke at 630,000 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons [2] - The average profit for independent coking enterprises dropped to 16 yuan per ton of coke, down 28 yuan from previous levels [2] - The operating rate of sample coal mines was 86.62%, with a daily output of 757,500 tons, slightly down by 7,500 tons [3] Group 3: Inventory and Demand - Coking coal inventory at independent coking enterprises decreased by 10,100 tons to 10,362,900 tons, while steel mills increased their coking coal inventory by 103,400 tons to 8,049,900 tons [3] - Domestic coke consumption was 1,019,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 11,900 tons [2] - The overall inventory of coking coal at ports decreased by 213,300 tons to 2,861,700 tons [3] Group 4: Industry Position and Future Outlook - The coke industry is in a relatively weak position within the black industrial chain, with limited bargaining power [4] - There are expectations for winter storage policies from some steel mills, but the anticipated impact is expected to be limited [4]

12月，临近岁末加上西方圣诞节，催热全球消费——国产圣诞帽、圣诞树等商品"出海"，航运市场也如 期迎来"旺季效应"。上海出口集装箱运价指数（SCFI）逆势回升，美线、地中海等核心航线运费集体上 涨，头部船司更是密集官宣12月涨价，数据很直观：欧线运价环比上涨9.5%，美西、美东航线的涨幅 更是达到20%左右。放在往年，海运费一涨，聚酯行业早就掀起了抢出口热潮——赶在运费上涨前发 货，锁定订单和利润。但今年却反常：聚酯出口既没有短期爆发，也没有订单集中锁定的情况。这 波"热运费"遇上"冷订单"的反差，背后藏着啥原因？又透露了行业哪些新变化呢？ 为啥不"抢单"了？哪些因素卡住了出口冲动？ 业内人士直言，以往海运费上涨，聚酯企业"抢单"积极性拉满，这次却集体"克制"，这不是偶然，而是 多重因素叠加的结果：核心原因是运费上涨的逻辑变了，再加上需求、利润、政策的多重约束，让"抢 单"变得无利可图，甚至风险重重。 业内资深人士庞春艳表示，相较于往年8月出口量达峰的常规表现，今年出口量提前回落，是受关税政 策影响的出口节奏变化。 不过，11月中美釜山会晤后，美方释放缓和信号：专项关税从20%下调至 10%，暂停加征更高"对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to a cooling market sentiment following strong expectations, leading to a return to fundamental trading dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon futures prices have shown a high-level correction, with the main PS2605 contract price approaching 58,000 yuan/ton, closing at 59,225 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [1] - Analysts indicate that the price drop is a result of profit distribution conflicts along the supply chain, with upstream polysilicon producers still profitable while downstream segments face pressure from rising non-silicon costs [1] - Current cash profit margins across the polysilicon supply chain are approximately 27.21% for polysilicon, -11.67% for silicon wafers, -19.81% for battery cells, and 1.34% for modules [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity Outlook - It is projected that silicon wafer production will decrease by about 21.67% to 44.71 GW by December 2025, with further reductions expected in January 2026 [2] - The domestic polysilicon capacity is anticipated to be reduced to approximately 1.89 million tons by 2026, with self-regulated production and sales expected to continue [2] - The exchange has implemented measures to stabilize the market, including increasing the minimum opening positions and expanding delivery warehouses, which has helped to restore rational trading [2] Group 3: Pricing and Cost Pressures - The current market is characterized by a "cost-price-inventory" battle, with upstream polysilicon producers raising prices to 65,000 yuan/ton, while downstream companies resist these high prices [3] - Despite a reduction in inventory at the silicon wafer level, the increase in upstream prices has pressured downstream battery cell producers, leading to a rise in mainstream pricing to 0.32 yuan/watt [3] - The increase in prices for silicon wafers and battery cells has not yet translated into significant sales, indicating a potential "price without market" scenario [4] Group 4: Future Market Expectations - The short-term outlook suggests a continued "upstream price increase, downstream observation" market structure, with the acceptance of high-priced components by end-users being limited [5] - If component prices do not rise, the logic of upstream price increases may not sustain, leading to potential price corrections due to high inventory levels [5] - The ability of the entire supply chain to achieve a consensus on "volume for price" through greater production cuts is crucial for sustaining price increases [6]

早上好！ 平安夜里，据CME"美联储观察"，美联储2026年1月降息25个基点的概率为15.5%，维持利率不变的概 率为84.5%。美联储到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为42.2%，维持利率不变的概率为51.8%，累计 降息50个基点的概率为6%。 泽连斯基公布俄乌"和平计划"草案20点内容 据新华社援引乌克兰通讯社24日报道，乌克兰总统泽连斯基在记者简报会上公布了最新版俄乌"和平计 划"草案的20点内容，并强调该文件仍为草案，其条款可能在谈判过程中有所修改。 泽连斯基告诉记者，这份文件被称为"框架文件"，在很大程度上反映了乌克兰和美国的共同立场，部分 反映了美方立场，但仍有一些问题需解决，"不过，我们在最终敲定文件方面已经取得了显著进展"。 泽连斯基介绍了草案20点内容。其中包括，乌克兰的主权将得到重申；为维持俄乌长期和平，将建立接 触线监督机制；乌克兰将获得有力安全保障；乌武装部队在和平时期规模将保持在80万人；美国、北约 和欧洲将向乌克兰提供类似北约第五条集体防御条款的保障；俄罗斯把不侵略欧洲和乌克兰的政策写入 所有必要的文件中；乌克兰成为欧盟成员国，并有入盟明确时间框架；设立多个基金，目标是筹集8 ...

目前，我国蔗糖与甜菜糖主产区正值压榨旺季，市场供应增加，同时国际主要产糖国市场供需格局出现 了较大变化，国内外糖价持续下行。 那么，当前全球糖市处于怎样的运行状态呢？期货日报记者为此采访了一位"老糖商"——广西潮起有限 公司董事长李海，从全球主要产糖国的糖料种植面积与产量情况、国内外食糖供需格局两大维度展开分 析，呈现最直观的市场判断。 李海表示，近年来，全球糖料种植呈现显著的扩张态势，南北半球主要产糖国的种植面积与产量均实现 大幅增长，为市场供应奠定了充足基础。例如，全球第一大产糖国巴西的甘蔗种植面积与产量均创新 高。从种植面积看，巴西北部与中南部种植规模持续扩大。尽管2024年底至2025年第三季度巴西主要产 区的降雨量持续低于历史均值，导致甘蔗单产出现趋势性下滑，但得益于种植面积的显著增长，甘蔗总 产量仍稳定在6亿吨以上。与此同时，巴西甘蔗生产比例创下历史新高，糖醇比的动态调整进一步优化 了生产结构。 "印度是食糖生产与消费大国，其糖料产业近年来实现了跨越式发展。在种植面积方面，印度近十年来 甘蔗种植面积增长了18%，约100万公顷，重要的是，其甘蔗单产的大幅提升推动总产量增长了40%， 达到5亿吨，使 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon futures prices is attributed to a cooling market sentiment following strong expectations, leading to a return to fundamental trading dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Polysilicon futures prices have experienced a high-level correction, with the main PS2605 contract price approaching 58,000 yuan/ton, closing at 59,225 yuan/ton, down 0.91% [1]. - Analysts indicate that the price drop reflects ongoing profit distribution struggles between upstream and downstream sectors, with downstream segments facing increasing non-silicon cost pressures due to rising prices of auxiliary materials like silver paste [1]. - Current cash profit margins for polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules are approximately 27.21%, -11.67%, -19.81%, and 1.34% respectively, indicating significant pressure on downstream profitability [1]. Group 2: Production and Capacity Outlook - It is projected that silicon wafer production will decrease by about 21.67% to 44.71 GW by December 2025, with further reductions expected in January 2026 [2]. - The domestic polysilicon capacity is anticipated to be reduced to approximately 1.89 million tons by 2026, as the industry focuses on eliminating outdated production capacity [2]. - Self-discipline in production and sales within the polysilicon sector is expected to continue into the next year, with an estimated annual production of around 1.16 million tons in 2026, aligning with market demand [2]. Group 3: Pricing Trends and Challenges - The current market is characterized by a "cost-price-inventory" struggle, with upstream polysilicon producers raising spot prices to 65,000 yuan/ton, while downstream companies resist these high prices [3]. - Despite a reduction in inventory in the silicon wafer segment, the actual transaction prices remain limited due to the reluctance of downstream battery cell manufacturers to accept rising costs [3][4]. - The increase in prices for silicon wafers and battery cells has been noted, with silicon wafer prices rising from 1.48 yuan/piece to a range of 1.05 to 1.53 yuan/piece, and battery cell prices increasing from 0.283 yuan/watt to 0.27 to 0.31 yuan/watt [4]. Group 4: Future Market Expectations - The market is expected to maintain a "upstream price increase, downstream observation" dynamic in the short term, with the acceptance of higher component prices by downstream entities being crucial for the sustainability of upstream price increases [5][6]. - The ability of the polysilicon market to rebound will depend on whether downstream prices can rise to around 0.8 yuan/watt, which would support a gradual increase in polysilicon spot prices [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the core of price increases in polysilicon hinges on effective price transmission mechanisms throughout the supply chain, necessitating a consensus on "volume for price" across the entire industry [6].

戴一帆预计，甲醇市场因物流格局扭转将会常态化。虽然国内甲醇可外售供给增量低，但是境外投产兑 现在进口后对港口的冲击反而更加明显。聚酯产业链需求预期保持乐观，2026年行业开工水平同比有望 抬升，效益存在修复预期，其中乙二醇估值已提前打压到位。PVC则面临历史最高的库存矛盾，价格已 跌破历史纪录，2026年驱动将主要来自国内外供应端的产能清退。 戴一帆认为，2026年的主要不确定性在于"反内卷"与"双控"。 "整体来看，化工板块需求和驱动底色不足，全年大概率是化工价格波动率下降的年份，主要价格驱动 将锚定在能源端而非化工利润本身。"戴一帆说。 "化工端整体需求与驱动底色不足，全年大概率是化工波动率下降的年份，主要价格驱动将锚定在能源 端。"南华期货（603093）研究院高级总监戴一帆在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第八期 中，对2026年能化板块进行了深度展望。他表示，当前化工市场正经历近七八年来现货体感最差的时 期，展望2026年，持续的高产能投放将使得过剩矛盾依然尖锐，行业或将步入"降波之年"。 戴一帆认为，2025年化工市场呈"跌跌不休"态势，产业全环节扩张积累的过剩压力在下半年集中显现。 ...