近期，沪铜主力合约在79000~80700元／吨区间运行。展望四季度，受美联储降息预期升温、基本面偏 强等利多因素影响，预计沪铜价格走势偏强。 宏观方面，美联储降息预期升温将为大宗商品市场提供流动性支持，但全球贸易摩擦仍然存在不确定 性。 2025年国内铜市需求端呈现显著的结构性分化特征。传统消费领域需求疲软，空调零售量虽然保持增 长，但9月排产数据下滑；房地产行业缓慢复苏，需求同样疲软。新能源和电力行业需求强劲，前7个月 新能源汽车销量为650万辆，同比增长29%；全国累计发电装机容量同比增长18.2%，为铜需求提供了有 力的支撑。 库存方面，数据显示，截至9月5日当周，沪铜仓单数量同比下降85%；沪铜库存为8.2万吨，同比下降 66%；LME铜库存为15.8万吨，同比下降50%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，COMEX铜周度库存同比大幅 增长661%，至30.53万吨。这反映出全球铜显性库存正在流向美国。 整体来看，四季度全球铜市将迎来传统的需求旺季，但基本面的结构性矛盾依然存在。供应方面，矿端 新增产能释放速度偏慢，铜精矿供应偏紧的格局没有改变。需求方面，预计四季度美国进口需求强劲； 我国新能源和电力行业快速发 ...

Core Viewpoint - PTA futures have stabilized after dropping to the lower end of the fluctuation range at 4650 yuan/ton, with strong support expected for a rebound due to low valuation and tight supply-demand balance [1] Group 1: Raw Material Support - Despite pessimistic market expectations for the future supply-demand pattern of crude oil, international oil prices remain supported around 65 USD/barrel [2] - OPEC+ decided to slightly increase production while emphasizing a cautious and flexible approach to manage voluntary production cuts, which has calmed the market [2] - There has been no significant inventory accumulation in the crude oil market since July, indicating that supply surplus has not been confirmed [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Balance - PTA operating rates are maintained at low levels, with current processing fees below 200 yuan/ton, leading to potential losses for some advanced PTA facilities [3] - The demand for textiles and apparel is expected to rise in September and October, but overall consumer demand remains weak, limiting brand replenishment intentions [3] - Polyester average operating rates as of September 4 are at 91%, with filament factories at 86.7%, short fiber factories at 93.9%, and bottle chip factories at 72.9% [3] - The profit margins in the polyester segment have improved, and inventory pressure is expected to be manageable during the peak season, allowing for sustained high operating rates [3] - Overall, the combination of low PTA valuation, short-term crude oil price support, and a tight supply-demand balance suggests strong support around 4700 yuan/ton, with PTA likely to stabilize and rebound in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in urea futures and spot prices is attributed to weak market sentiment and an oversupply situation, leading to a bearish outlook for the urea market in the short term [1][4][5]. Price Trends - On September 9, urea futures fell below the 1700 yuan/ton mark, closing at 1669 yuan/ton on September 10, a decrease of 1.01% [1]. - In the spot market, prices also declined, with small particle urea prices in major domestic production areas like Shandong and Henan ranging from 1640 to 1700 yuan/ton, while prices in the northern Xinjiang region were between 1410 and 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is cautious, with manufacturers having varying pressures based on their export orders. Companies with export orders maintain a firm pricing stance, while those lacking such orders are more inclined to lower prices to secure sales [3]. - Downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see approach, particularly in the agricultural sector [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in urea prices is primarily due to weak fundamentals, with domestic urea production remaining at historically high levels despite a slight decrease in daily output. Current inventory levels are around 1.09 million tons [4]. - Agricultural demand is currently in a seasonal lull, with low purchasing activity from grassroots levels and high inventory levels at compound fertilizer companies [4][5]. Future Outlook - Urea production is expected to rebound in mid to late September, potentially reaching daily outputs of over 190,000 tons, which may exacerbate the supply situation [5]. - The market is characterized by high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, leading to a "weak reality" for the urea market. However, potential export opportunities could provide short-term support for prices [5]. - Despite the bearish sentiment, the downward price movement may be limited as the market could be nearing a bottom [5].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has adjusted with a steepening yield curve, and the correlation between stock and bond markets has weakened as of September. The overall bond market has returned to a fluctuating range without significant changes in the funding and economic fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - As of the latest data, the yields for 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds are 1.41%, 1.62%, 1.85%, and 2.15%, reflecting changes of 0.23, -0.93, 1.35, and 1.00 basis points respectively since the end of August [1]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a reasonable liquidity level, with a net injection of 3,865 billion yuan in August through various monetary policy tools [3]. - The current DR001 and DR007 rates are fluctuating around 1.4% and 1.45%, indicating a stable liquidity environment [3]. Group 2: Economic Recovery - The trade data for August shows a year-on-year export growth rate of 4.4% and an import growth rate of 1.3%, both of which have decreased by 2.8 percentage points compared to the previous month [4]. - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.40%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating improvements in both supply and demand sides [4]. Group 3: Central Bank Actions - There is a growing expectation for the PBOC to restart government bond trading, influenced by policy signals and changes in liquidity operations [6]. - The PBOC has been utilizing various tools for medium to long-term funding, with the balance of reverse repos increasing significantly since the end of 2024 [6]. - The necessity to restart government bond trading has increased due to the declining balance of government bonds held by the PBOC [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - With the PBOC's active liquidity support and reduced impact from government bond issuance, significant fluctuations in the funding environment are unlikely in September, and short-term bond trends are expected to remain stable [7]. - The long-term bullish logic for the stock market remains unchanged, which continues to exert downward pressure on long-term bonds [7].

上周，事件驱动债市放大波动，而本周，债市重回偏弱格局。 市场风险偏好有所变化 7月以来，股债市场整体呈现"跷跷板"效应。在全球流动性宽松、美元资产重新配置的大背景下，我国基 本面及政策面趋稳形成相对优势，A股由此开启流动性"牛市"，并出现一定赚钱效应，吸引资金稳步流 入，债市随之承压。不过，受益于央行呵护流动性以及美联储降息预期进一步强化，加之理财及债基赎回 压力相对可控，债市相对"抗跌"。 近期，股指期货远月合约贴水幅度扩大，且股指看涨期权隐含波动率下行幅度明显大于看跌期权，该数据 于上周上半周到达阶段性高点，下半周以来有所修复，说明市场风险偏好回落后再度回升，这有利于股 债"跷跷板"效应的发挥。 图为30年期国债期货主力连续合约日线走势 证监会就公募基金销售费用管理规定征求意见 9月5日，证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》，明确以下几点：一是 赎回费全额计入基金财产，无论投资者持有时长如何，赎回费不再返还给销售机构，而是全部计入基金资 产；二是统一赎回费率标准，将股票型、混合型、债券型基金以及FOF基金的短期赎回费率拉平，持有期 不足6个月的投资者需缴纳至少0.5%的赎回费； ...

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme People's Court of China has released five typical antitrust cases that address significant legal issues related to the abuse of administrative power, horizontal monopolistic behaviors, and the role of industry associations in monopolistic practices, impacting essential sectors such as transportation, building materials, raw pharmaceuticals, and chemicals [1] Group 1 - The cases directly affect the daily lives of citizens, influencing costs related to transportation, medication, and housing [1] - The court's actions aim to firmly curb monopolistic behaviors and provide compensation to affected businesses, thereby safeguarding market fairness and protecting the interests of the public [1] - The cases reflect an improvement in the court's adjudication standards, offering clear guidance for regulating market competition behaviors [1] Group 2 - The "Cement Association Horizontal Monopoly Agreement" case clarifies the recognition standards for monopolistic behaviors conducted by industry associations, delineating the boundaries of such associations' actions [1] - The "Formaldehyde Sales Market" horizontal monopoly agreement case establishes standards for identifying and implementing horizontal monopoly agreements, aiding courts in accurately recognizing such behaviors to maintain fair market competition [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the national marine GDP is projected to reach 10.5 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of 2.7 trillion yuan compared to 2020 [1] - Marine oil and gas are expected to be the main contributors to reserves and production, with marine crude oil accounting for over 70% of the domestic crude oil increment in 2024 [1] - China's marine pharmaceutical research and development capabilities rank among the world's top, with domestically developed marine drugs making up 28% of the globally listed categories [1] Group 2 - The marine shipping volume and container throughput account for one-third of the global total [1] - The marine tourism industry is projected to achieve an added value of 1.6 trillion yuan in 2024, with a surge in cruise tourism and marine educational travel, transforming the marine sector into a "happy check-in place" [1]

据新华社电 今年是我国碳达峰碳中和目标提出五周年。10日，国务院关于应对气候变化和碳达峰碳中 和工作情况的报告提请全国人大常委会会议审议。 生态环境部部长黄润秋受国务院委托作报告时介绍，党的十八大以来，党中央将应对气候变化摆在国家 治理更加突出的位置，实施积极应对气候变化国家战略，作出实现碳达峰碳中和的重大战略决策， 把"双碳"工作纳入生态文明建设整体布局和经济社会发展全局。 重点领域绿色发展持续推进。2024年城镇新建绿色建筑面积16.9亿平方米，占当年城镇新建建筑面积的 97.9%。构建清洁低碳交通运输体系，2024年重点行业大宗货物清洁运输比例约70%，民航绿色转型成 效突出。同时，全国碳市场逐步完善，适应气候变化工作深入推进，基础能力稳步夯实，科技创新和政 策激励不断强化，中国为全球气候治理作出重要贡献。 "应对气候变化和碳达峰碳中和工作任重道远。"黄润秋表示，我国碳排放强度控制难度大，要用全球历 史上最短时间实现碳达峰到碳中和，完成全球最高碳强度降幅，任务十分艰巨。同时，持续推进绿色低 碳转型面临挑战，国际气候治理形势复杂严峻。 报告指出，要持续实施积极应对气候变化国家战略，积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和 ...

胶版印刷纸期货上市首日 9月10日，胶版印刷纸期货在上期所挂牌交易。上市首日，主力2601合约收于4208元/吨，较4218元/吨 的挂牌基准价下跌10元/吨，跌幅为0.24%。次主力2603合约收于4218元/吨，较主力合约升水10元/吨。 宋霁鹏告诉期货日报记者，胶版印刷纸生产成本的重要构成纸浆（占比65%~70%）价格今年以来整体 低位震荡，虽在一定程度上缓解了造纸企业的成本压力，但胶版印刷纸市场供过于求，价格传导不畅， 企业难以通过提高产品价格来提升利润，行业整体利润空间被压缩，多数企业处于微利甚至亏损边缘。 数据显示，截至9月10日下午收盘，胶版印刷纸期货成交2.19万手（单边，下同），成交金额37.03亿 元，持仓0.29万手，成交持仓比7.42。 兴业期货分析师杨帆认为，在过剩格局下，行业利润整体不佳，企业开展风险管理的重要性凸显，适度 参与纸浆及胶版印刷纸期权，能够有效平衡期货头寸。例如买入期权保护或替代原有期货头寸以规避风 险，或者卖出期权增加收益以修正基差或价差。通过构建期货与期权相结合的风险管理体系，并且灵活 调整头寸的比例，企业能够从容应对各类行情，最终大幅提升盈利能力。 上期所数据显 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of futures and options for newsprint paper, fuel oil, asphalt, and pulp at the Shanghai Futures Exchange marks a significant step in enhancing the multi-layered derivatives system in the industry, providing essential financial tools for companies in the cultural paper sector and promoting sustainable development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The paper and paperboard production in China is projected to reach 136 million tons by 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest producer and consumer of paper for 16 consecutive years [3]. - China is the largest producer and consumer of cultural paper globally, with a market size exceeding 100 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Significance of the Launch - The introduction of newsprint paper futures and options is timely, providing crucial financial instruments for upstream and downstream enterprises in the cultural paper industry, enhancing their risk management capabilities [4]. - The market mechanism is expected to stimulate green transformation in enterprises and promote sustainable development in the paper industry [4]. - The launch aims to improve the international competitiveness of China's paper industry and establish "China prices," attracting global resources [4]. Group 3: Market Performance - On the first trading day, the newsprint paper futures opened at 4150 yuan/ton and closed at 4208 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 0.24% [7]. - The trading volume for newsprint paper futures reached 21,850 contracts, with a transaction value of approximately 3.7 billion yuan [7]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The current weak fundamentals in the industry are reflected in the low opening price of newsprint paper futures, attributed to increased supply pressure from expanding production capacities of major factories [9]. - Despite entering the seasonal consumption peak, demand remains cautious due to delayed purchasing intentions among book sellers and shrinking profits [9]. - Inventory levels for newsprint paper are at historical lows, with 530,000 tons in production and 700,000 tons in circulation, indicating ongoing supply pressure [9].