Macro Perspective - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during the July meeting, which had a limited impact on nickel prices [2] - Indonesia's government raised nickel ore production quotas from 298.5 million wet tons to 364 million tons, but actual production was only 120 million tons, significantly below the quota [2] - Nickel ore imports in June were 4.35 million tons, down 9% year-on-year, but up 11% month-on-month, leading to an increase in nickel concentrate port inventory to 9.3146 million wet tons, returning to the median level of the past five years [2] Stainless Steel Industry - Both Indonesia and China's stainless steel industries are in a consumption lull, with profits for 200 and 400 series hot-rolled and cold-rolled stainless steel remaining negative, while only the 300 series maintained positive margins [3] - In June, production of hot-rolled stainless steel decreased by 5.5% month-on-month, and cold-rolled stainless steel production fell by 2% [3] - Nickel pig iron (NPI) production profits in China have declined, leading to the lowest operating rates and production levels in nearly four years, with imports of NPI rising by 50% year-on-year in June [3] Battery and Alloy Demand - Domestic sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35% year-on-year in the first half of the year, significantly boosting nickel demand for batteries [4] - Nickel demand for alloys also rose, with refined nickel production reaching 210,000 tons in the first half of the year, a 41% increase year-on-year, marking a four-year high [4] - Nickel inventory levels are at their highest in four years, with LME nickel inventory at 208,000 tons, a 98% year-on-year increase [4] Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices have been fluctuating within a range since June, with a peak of 125,370 yuan/ton in July due to stimulus measures in key industries [5] - The outlook suggests that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate, especially if Indonesia increases its nickel concentrate production in response to raised quotas [6] - The overall supply-demand balance for refined nickel remains loose, with high inventory levels at LME and SHFE, indicating limited upward price momentum in the short term [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive overview of domestic commodity basis data as of July 31, highlighting the differences between spot prices and futures contract prices across various commodities, indicating market trends and potential investment opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Commodity Basis Data - Copper shows a spot price of 78,500 with a futures closing price of 78,040, resulting in a basis of 460 and a basis rate of 0.59% [1]. - Zinc has a spot price of 22,320 and a futures price of 22,345, leading to a negative basis of -52 and a basis rate of -0.11% [1]. - Aluminum's spot price is 16,625, while the futures price is 16,735, resulting in a basis of -110 and a basis rate of -0.66% [1]. - The basis for rebar steel is 165 with a spot price of 3,370 and a futures price of 3,205, indicating a strong basis rate of 4.90% [1]. - The basis for paper pulp is notably high at 618, with a spot price of 5,850 and a futures price of 5,232, reflecting a basis rate of 10.56% [1]. Group 2: Price Changes and Trends - The price of cotton increased by 1,675 to reach 15,325, showing a significant rise of 10.93% [2]. - Industrial silicon has a spot price of 9,850, with a futures price of 8,760, resulting in a basis of 1,090 and a basis rate of 11.07% [2]. - The price of palm oil increased by 40 to 8,940, reflecting a slight rise of 0.45% [2]. - The price of eggs decreased by 282 to 3,240, indicating a decline of 8.70% [2]. - The price of sugar increased by 162 to 5,955, showing a rise of 2.72% [2]. Group 3: Market Insights - The report indicates that the basis rates for various commodities vary significantly, with some commodities like paper pulp and industrial silicon showing strong positive basis rates, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1][2]. - The fluctuations in prices across different commodities highlight the volatility in the market, which could impact investment strategies [1][2]. - The data reflects the overall health of the commodity market, with certain commodities experiencing price increases while others face declines, indicating a mixed market sentiment [1][2].

Core Points - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, effective August 1 [2] - The tariffs are part of Trump's ongoing trade policy, which has previously targeted various goods including steel [2][4] - Mexico, as the third-largest exporter of copper products to the U.S., is expected to face significant economic impacts from these tariffs [5][7] Impact on Mexico - The tariffs are projected to result in approximately $1 billion in losses for Mexico annually, as it exported $976 million worth of copper products to the U.S. in 2024 [7] - In the first five months of 2025, Mexico's copper product exports to the U.S. increased by 12% compared to the same period last year, generating $419 million in revenue [8] - The tariffs may also lead to increased competition among domestic U.S. traders, affecting the overall market dynamics [9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1, while copper input materials and scrap copper are exempt from these tariffs [1]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - The U.S. President signed an announcement imposing a 50% tariff on specific copper products [1]. - Copper input materials such as copper ore, concentrates, blister copper, cathodes, and anodes are not subject to the tariffs [1]. Group 2: Industry Reaction - Maximo Pacheco, Chairman of Codelco, expressed positive feedback regarding the U.S. announcement, indicating that the exemption for cathode copper products allows Codelco to continue as a supplier [1]. - Pacheco stated that this is beneficial for Chile, Codelco, and their U.S. customers [1]. Group 3: Market Impact - The announcement led to a significant market reaction, with copper prices on the COMEX market dropping by over 19% [1].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected announcement of a 50% tariff on certain copper imports by the U.S. government has led to a significant decline in copper prices, reversing previous gains in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. White House announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1 [1]. - Following the announcement, Comex copper prices fell over 18%, with the September contract dropping to $4.445 per pound, a decline of 20.4% [2]. - The premium of U.S. copper over LME copper decreased to $104, down from over $3,000 in recent months [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments and Future Outlook - The LME benchmark copper price fell by 0.03% to $9,695.5 per ton [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current price of $4.5 per pound for U.S. copper is reasonable, reflecting pre-tariff levels [4]. - There is an expectation that as U.S. inventories decrease and the impact of tariffs on downstream products is felt, Comex copper prices may rise again, potentially leading to a sustained U.S. premium [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper prices are under pressure due to a combination of factors including the U.S. decision not to impose tariffs on copper raw materials and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in copper prices [1] - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives effective from August 1, which is less severe than previously expected, resulting in a significant drop in U.S. copper prices [1] - China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1] Group 2 - Jinrui Futures notes that the recent tariff implementation may lead to potential logistics recovery, which could result in an oversupply situation, necessitating observation of consumer resilience [2] - If consumption continues to underperform expectations, there is a risk of price declines in the copper market [2]

该公司报告称，上半年铜产量同比下降26%，至3343,900吨，主要是因为矿石品位下降。该公司还将2025年全年铜产量预估自此前的850,000-890,000吨上调 至850,000-910,000吨。预计未来数月，其铜产量会更高。 数据显示，该公司2024年铜产量为952,000吨。 该公司表示将关闭其在澳大利亚Mount Isa的最后两座铜矿并已同意出售旗下菲律宾的铜冶炼厂。 上半年其钴产量为18,900吨，较上年同期增加19%。 （文华综合） 7月30日（周三），嘉能可周三报告称，上半年铜产量下降并表示其目标是在2026年底前节省10亿美元成本。 该公司首席执行官Gary Nagle在一份声明中表示："对我们的工业资产组合进行了全面审查……，认识到简化工业运营结构的机会。" 他补充说，该公司将在8月6日的半年报中提供更多细节。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Grupo Mexico maintains a "very optimistic" outlook on the long-term growth prospects of the copper industry in Asia despite the recent announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the United States [1] Group 1: Tariff Announcement - On July 30, the White House announced that President Trump would impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective from August 1 [1] Group 2: Company Response - Leonardo Contreras, CFO of Grupo Mexico's mining division, stated that the company will continue to monitor global changes before deciding whether to restart a mothballed smelting project in Arizona [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CFO of Southern Copper Corporation, Raul Jacob, expressed concerns about the impact of trade conflicts on the global economy and the copper industry, but remains optimistic about the long-term prospects for copper [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The mining sector anticipates that trade conflicts will negatively affect the global economy and the copper industry [1] - Despite current challenges, the industry is expected to maintain resilience in the long term [1] Group 2: Tariff Implications - Jacob highlighted a significant price gap between the COMEX and LME, indicating a high likelihood of the U.S. imposing tariffs on copper imports [1] - The Trump administration plans to implement a 50% tariff starting Friday, with Peru being a major supplier of refined copper to the U.S. [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the details of the tariffs and their potential impact on the company, as tariff levels on other goods and countries have been fluctuating [1] Group 3: Company Position - Grupo Mexico's chairman, German Larrea, stated that the company is monitoring the potential effects of tariffs on its business [1] - Southern Copper is in a solid position to handle uncertainties related to the trade environment [1]

Codelco主席Maximo Pacheco称："初步的解读表明关税将不会适用于阴极铜，使我们能够继续向市场供应。这对智利和Codelco来说是好消息。" 智利是全球最大的铜供应国，并且也是美国最大的阴极铜进口国。 （文华综合） 全球最大的铜生产商——智利国营铜公司Codelco周三表示，阴极铜被排除在美国铜关税之外是一个积极的消息。 据央视新闻客户端报道，当地时间7月30日，美国白宫表示，美国总统特朗普宣布对进口半成品铜产品和铜密集型衍生产品征收50%的普遍关税，自8月1日 起生效。 ...