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Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index has increased to 6.35% as of June 8, up from 5.82% on May 25, driven mainly by asphalt operating rates and passenger car retail sales, indicating a recovery in infrastructure and durable goods consumption [1][7][8] - Passenger car retail sales maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 19% before June, compared to 13.3% in May and 14.5% in April [1][11] - Real estate sales showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% in the first 13 days of June across 67 cities, compared to a 13% decline in May [1][12] Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure indicators such as asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates continued to rise, with asphalt operating rates at 31.5% as of June 11, up 9.3% year-on-year [1][19] - Cement dispatch rates reached 41.4% as of June 6, slightly up from the previous week and higher than the same period last year [1][19] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port increased by 17.5% year-on-year as of June 13, indicating a recovery in coal production [1][20] Consumer Behavior - Service consumption showed a decline in metro passenger traffic and flight operations, with metro ridership averaging 76.17 million daily in 27 cities, down 0.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The land premium rate has significantly decreased to 1.04% as of June 8, down from 5.14% in May and 9.75% in April, indicating a cooling in the real estate market [3][13] Trade and Prices - Global oil prices surged due to geopolitical conflicts, with WTI crude oil rising by 13% and Brent crude by 11.7% [2][39] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 20.5%, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose by 7.6%, reflecting higher shipping costs [2][39] - U.S. imports continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 9.4% in early June, and imports from China decreased by 28% [3][25] Interest Rates and Debt Issuance - Government bond yields slightly decreased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.4002%, 1.5447%, and 1.6440% respectively as of June 13 [4][59] - New special bond issuance has progressed faster than in 2024, with a total of 1.69 trillion yuan issued by June 13, representing 38.4% of the annual target [3][47]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming important economic data and events for the week, including the New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in the US, as well as key indicators from the Eurozone and Japan [2][3][4]. - Recent data shows a decline in US consumer inflation expectations for the first time since 2024, with the one-year inflation expectation dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May [4][8]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.4% year-on-year in May, while core CPI rose by 2.8%, reflecting the impact of high tariff policies on domestic prices [4][8]. Group 2 - The US household net worth decreased for the first time in 2023, dropping by $1.6 trillion to $169.3 trillion, a decline of 0.9% [4][8]. - The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index improved to 0.2 in June, better than the previous value of -8.1 and the expected -6 [4][8]. - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.2% in Q1, which was better than the initial estimate of a 0.7% decline, exceeding economists' expectations [4][8]. Group 3 - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 1.9 for the week ending June 7, consistent with the four-week moving average [5][10]. - The German economic activity index fell significantly, with the WAI index dropping to -0.5 for the week ending June 8 [11]. - The US Redbook retail sales growth rate slightly decreased to 4.7% year-on-year for the week ending June 7, down from 4.9% the previous week [14]. Group 4 - The US mortgage rates saw a slight decline, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.84% as of June 12, down from 6.85% the previous week [16]. - Initial jobless claims in the US remained unchanged at 248,000 for the week ending June 7, while continuing claims rose significantly to 1.956 million [21]. - The RJ/CRB commodity price index increased to 309.9 on June 13, reflecting a 3.0% rise from the previous week [24]. Group 5 - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone have marginally eased, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US rising to 0.491 from 0.336 [28]. - Offshore dollar liquidity remained relatively loose, with the three-month swap basis for the yen against the dollar at -24.5 basis points [30]. - The high-yield corporate bond spread in the US remained low, with a spread of 3.08 basis points as of June 13 [32].

Group 1 - The article focuses on the analysis of residents' wages in China, highlighting the dependence of disposable income on wages, the wage growth rates among different demographics, the distribution of total wages across industries, and the comparison of wage growth with transfer payments [2][3][4][5][6][8][24]. Group 2 - In 2024, the national per capita disposable income is projected to be 41,314 yuan, with per capita wage income at 23,327 yuan, indicating that wages account for 56.5% of disposable income, which is historically high [3][11]. - The wage growth rate for urban residents in 2024 is 5.04%, while rural residents experience a higher growth rate of 6.94%, surpassing GDP growth [4][15]. - Non-private sector wage growth is higher than that of private sectors, with average wage growth rates of 2.8% for non-private and 1.7% for private sectors in 2024 [5][18]. - The total wage amount for urban non-private units is estimated at 20.53 trillion yuan in 2024, with stable trends in government service sectors and a decline in the share of "old economy" sectors like construction and finance [7][23][24]. Group 3 - Wage growth rates are compared with transfer payments, showing that from 2023 to 2024, wage growth outpaces personal income tax growth, but in the first quarter of 2025, wage growth is expected to fall below that of personal income tax [8][26]. - The growth rate of housing provident fund contributions is higher than wage growth, with the provident fund amounting to 36,317.83 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 4.67% increase [30][27].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 （四）关税相关 ： 6 月 12 日，商务部举行新闻发布会。记者就中美伦敦经贸会谈内容提问，" 中美 已达成协议，美国将对华征收 55% 的关税，中国将对美征收 10% 的关税，并且中国将和之前一样向 美国出口磁体和稀土材料 "。商务部发言人表示，中国"依法依规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审 查，已依法批准一定数量的合规申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作"。 风险提示： 政策更新不及时。 近一周，对外开放继续推进，主要涉及前沿地区试点及经验推广。 （一）试点经验推广 。 6 月 13 日，总理主持召开国常会，部署中国（上海）自由贸易试验区试点措 施复制推广工作。会议提出，"要在守住风险底线的前提下，更大力度开展制度型开放试验，加快构建 更高水平开放型经济新体制"。 （二）试点地区扩大开放 。 6 月 11 日，中办、国办印发关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创 新扩大开放的意见， 在金融、低空经济、数据、医药等领域，赋予深圳新 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 5 月，新增社融 2.29 万亿（前值 1.16 万亿），新增人民币贷款 6200 亿（前值 2800 亿）。社融 存量同比增长 8.7% （前值 8.7% ）， M2 同比增长 7.9% （前值 8% ），新口径 M1 同比增长 2.3% （前 值 1.5% ）。 核心观点 1 、在海外关税政策不确定性的影响下， 4 月和 5 月企业存款回落，企业现金流或承受一定程度的冲击。 2 、但在国内稳定资本市场政策的确定性的影响下，新增非银存款持续抬升， 4 月 5 月非银存款新增规模 是 2016 年以来同期最高值。 3 、政府层面，政府加速发债的背景下，新增存款规模相对偏慢，从这个视角来看政府债的下拨也相对偏 快，不过要关注后续政府债接近发行规模后的续航问题。 4 、从领先指标来看，企业居民存款剪刀差自 2024 年 9 月以来仍在持续改善，外部环境的不确定性并未打 破这一趋势，这或许意味着国内政策的确定性当下或是影响经济循环行为更重要的变量。 报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing discourse on "de-dollarization" in the context of U.S. tariff policies, highlighting the reliance of U.S. companies on overseas business and the potential impact on their performance due to changing global economic dynamics [2][4]. Group 1: Overseas Revenue Proportion - In the S&P 500 index, the proportion of non-U.S. revenue is approximately 30%, which is higher for large enterprises compared to small enterprises, where it is about 20% [6][18]. - The companies disclosing non-U.S. revenue in the S&P 500 represent about 83% of the total market capitalization, indicating a high level of representativeness [6][18]. Group 2: Industry Exposure to Overseas Revenue - The technology sector has the highest exposure to overseas revenue, with over 50% of its revenue coming from non-U.S. sources, followed by materials, healthcare, and communications, all exceeding 30% [7][21]. - Key industries like technology and communications account for nearly half of the total market capitalization of the S&P 500, indicating their significant reliance on overseas business [7][21]. Group 3: Major Companies' Overseas Business - More than half of the major companies in the S&P 500 have overseas business proportions exceeding their respective industry averages [9][26]. - For instance, Apple has 57% of its revenue from overseas, while Nvidia and Broadcom have 56% and 75%, respectively, which are above the technology sector's average of 51% [10][26]. Group 4: Importance of Asian and European Markets - Asian and European markets are nearly equally important, with Asian revenue accounting for 45% and European revenue for 40% of non-U.S. income [12][40]. - In the technology and energy sectors, Asian revenue is significantly higher than European revenue, while in consumer and financial sectors, European revenue dominates [12][40]. Group 5: Growth Rates of Domestic vs. Overseas Revenue - The growth of overseas revenue is generally outpacing domestic revenue growth, particularly in the communications sector, which shows a consistent trend of higher growth in non-U.S. revenue [13][44]. - The materials sector also exhibits higher growth in overseas revenue compared to total revenue for 2023-2024 [13][44]. Group 6: Profitability of Overseas Business - Certain industries, including essential and non-essential consumer goods, materials, and technology, show higher profit margins for overseas business compared to domestic operations [15][50]. - For example, the average operating profit margin for overseas business in the technology sector is 33%, which is higher than the overall average of 20% [15][50]. Group 7: Dependence on Chinese Market - The technology and communications sectors have a higher proportion of revenue from China, at 25.1%, compared to the overall average of 16.5% [16][57]. - However, revenue growth from China for these sectors has slowed in the past two years, potentially due to U.S. restrictions on technology [16][57].

Group 1 - The document emphasizes that the research material is intended solely for professional investors and should not be shared with non-professional investors [1][2] - It highlights the potential misunderstanding that ordinary investors may face due to the lack of interpretative services regarding key assumptions, ratings, and target prices in the reports [2] - The content is derived from previously published research reports by Huachuang Securities, and any discrepancies should refer to the complete report published on the same date [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the potential impacts of tariffs on inflation, highlighting that the CPI has been consistently below market expectations for three consecutive months [2][10]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In May, the CPI year-on-year increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, which was below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, also below the expected 2.9% [2][20]. - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous values of 0.2%. The core CPI also increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% [2][20]. - The proportion of CPI items with a year-on-year increase exceeding 2% rose from 37.7% to 40.8%, indicating a widening inflation breadth [20]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The article identifies several factors that may have suppressed the impact of tariffs on inflation, including the suspension and reduction of reciprocal tariffs and micro-level tax avoidance measures [3][10]. - The effective tariff rate in April was only 7.07%, significantly lower than estimates of 13-20% from overseas institutions, suggesting that various avoidance strategies have mitigated the tariff impact [3][10]. - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the initial sale price, which may further reduce the effective tariff burden [11]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Consumer Behavior - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, up from 1.73 [2][29]. - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with one-year and five-year inflation expectations remaining at their highest levels in 45 and 25 years, respectively [5][13]. - Despite concerns about price increases, a significant majority of retail executives plan to raise prices, indicating ongoing pressure for price transmission in the market [6][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025," focusing on tax reform, spending cuts, increased spending, and raising the debt ceiling, highlighting the potential impacts on the U.S. economy and fiscal deficit [1][9]. Group 1: Key Issues - Tax Reform: The act extends and expands personal tax cuts from the 2017 tax reform, leading to an estimated increase in the primary deficit of approximately $3.8 trillion from 2025 to 2034 [2][10]. - Spending Cuts: The act proposes cuts in healthcare, education, food assistance, and energy, which are expected to reduce the primary deficit by about $1.95 trillion over the same period [2][17]. - Increased Spending: Additional spending in military defense and immigration is projected to increase the primary deficit by approximately $480 billion from 2025 to 2034 [2][18]. - Debt Ceiling: The act raises the statutory debt ceiling by $4 trillion to $40.1 trillion, addressing the current public debt situation [2][21]. Group 2: Impact on Deficit, Economic Growth, and Distribution Effects - Deficit Impact: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the act will increase the primary deficit by about $2.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034, while other estimates range from $2.6 trillion to $2.8 trillion [4][26]. - Economic Growth: The act is expected to have a minimal impact on GDP growth, with estimates suggesting an increase of about 0.4% over the period from 2025 to 2034 [4][32]. - Distribution Effects: The act may exacerbate income inequality, as it is projected to benefit higher-income households more than lower-income ones, potentially widening the income gap [4][37][43]. Group 3: Future Developments - Legislative Process: The act requires agreement between the House and Senate to become law, facing internal divisions within the Republican Party that may complicate its passage [4][46]. - Key Dates: Important timelines include the desire for the act to be signed into law by July 4, the "X date" around August when the debt ceiling must be addressed, and the end of the fiscal year in September [4][47][49].