Group 1: Market Overview - The Beta factor and valuation factor achieved positive returns of 0.66% and 0.48% respectively, while the market capitalization factor recorded a negative return of -0.80%, indicating a small-cap market performance [5] - The quant stock selection strategy yielded significant excess returns, with the PB-ROE-50 combination achieving excess returns of 1.38%, 2.54%, and 4.23% for the CSI 500, CSI 800, and the overall market respectively [5] Group 2: REITs Market - The secondary market prices of publicly listed REITs in China showed an upward trend, with the CSI REITs closing at 806.72 and the CSI REITs total return index at 1047.51, reflecting weekly returns of 2.09% and 2.17% respectively [5] - Compared to other major asset classes, the return rates ranked as follows: Gold > Convertible Bonds > REITs > A-shares > Crude Oil > Pure Bonds > US Stocks [5] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - The 2025 annual report from the banking industry indicated an increase in the scale of wealth management products by nearly 3.3 trillion, achieving a year-on-year increase despite a high base [6] - "Fixed income +" wealth management products have become a significant growth point, while the average yield on wealth management products has dropped below 2% [6] - The proportion of wealth management products in deposit asset allocation rose to 28.2%, with the market share of wealth management companies exceeding 90% [6] Group 4: Copper Industry Analysis - The TC spot price reached a new low, indicating continued tightness in copper concentrate procurement, while cable manufacturers' operating rates increased week-on-week [8] - Despite the rise in copper prices, domestic social inventory continues to grow, which may suppress demand [8] - The outlook for 2026 remains optimistic with a tight supply-demand balance expected to support copper prices [8] Group 5: Chemical Industry Trends - The price of spandex has seen a significant increase of 1000 yuan/ton due to pressure from losses, marking a turning point in the spandex market [8] - Spandex prices have dropped from a historical high of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, representing a decline of 72% [8]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 点评： 营收盈利增速较1-3Q均有小幅回升，经营基本面稳中向好 2025年招行营收、归母净利润同比增速分别为0%、1.2%，营收、盈利增速较1-3Q分别提升0.5、0.7pct； 若保留两位小数，营收增速为0.01%，结束了23Q1以来累计营收增速同比负增长态势，营收增速实现转 正。营收主要构成上看，（1）净利息收入同比增长2%，增速较1-3Q提升0.3pct，公司保持适度扩表速 度，同时，以净利息收入/平均总资产作为观测净息差的代理变量，测算该代理变量2025年为1.71%，较1- 3Q年化值略降1bp，预估4Q息差保持稳定，量增价稳对利息收入形成支撑；（2）非息收入同比下降 3.4%，降幅较1-3Q收窄0.8pct，3Q资本市场景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of various market factors and investment strategies, indicating a mixed performance across different stock pools and sectors, with certain factors yielding positive excess returns [4][7][8][9][10]. Group 1: Market Factor Performance - The overall market showed positive returns for the Beta factor (0.66%) and valuation factor (0.48%), while the market capitalization factor yielded negative returns (-0.80%), indicating a preference for small-cap stocks [4]. - In the CSI 300 stock pool, the best-performing factors included the 5-day average turnover rate (4.52%) and 5-day reversal (3.17%), while the total asset growth rate (-2.05%) and quarterly ROE (-1.16%) performed poorly [5]. - The CSI 500 stock pool saw strong performance from the 5-day reversal (3.80%) and quarterly operating profit growth rate (1.98%), but struggled with momentum-adjusted small caps (-2.41%) [5]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Factor Performance - Fundamental factors showed varied performance across sectors, with net asset per share and TTM operating profit factors performing well in the defense and leisure services sectors [6]. - Valuation factors such as BP and EP also yielded positive returns in the defense and leisure services industries, while residual volatility and liquidity factors performed well in the coal sector [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Performance - The PB-ROE-50 combination achieved positive excess returns across stock pools, with the CSI 500 pool gaining 1.38% and the CSI 800 pool gaining 2.54% [7]. - Public and private fund research selection strategies both generated positive excess returns, with public strategies outperforming the CSI 800 by 0.61% and private strategies by 3.43% [8]. - The block trading combination also achieved positive excess returns relative to the CSI All Index, with a gain of 0.86% [9]. - The targeted issuance combination outperformed the CSI All Index by 1.32%, indicating strong performance in this investment strategy [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the spandex industry is at a turning point, with recent price increases indicating a recovery in market conditions after a significant decline in prices from historical highs [4][5]. - Spandex prices have dropped from a peak of 83,750 yuan/ton in 2021 to 23,600 yuan/ton in early January 2026, representing a decline of 72% [4]. - Recent price adjustments by spandex suppliers, with increases of 1,000 yuan/ton, suggest an improvement in supply-demand dynamics within the industry [4]. Group 2 - The spandex production capacity in China is projected to grow from 925,000 tons in 2020 to 1,430,000 tons by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% [5]. - The rapid increase in production capacity is expected to occur between 2022 and 2024, with annual growth rates of 10-11%, significantly higher than the average growth rate over the past five years [5]. - By 2026, only 40,000 tons of new capacity is expected to be added, primarily from Huafeng Chemical, indicating a slowdown in capacity growth [5]. Group 3 - The demand for spandex is expected to increase from 720,000 tons in 2020 to 1,060,000 tons by 2025, with a CAGR of 6.7%, demonstrating strong demand resilience [5]. - The elimination of outdated production capacity is anticipated, with 63,000 tons expected to be phased out by 2025 and an additional 54,000 tons from Xiaoxing Chemical by the end of 2026 [5]. - The combination of limited new capacity and the exit of outdated capacity is expected to significantly reduce supply-side pressure, contributing to a favorable outlook for the spandex industry [5]. Group 4 - The "anti-involution" policy is being promoted, which aims to optimize market competition and regulate chaotic business practices, particularly in the petrochemical sector [6][7]. - The petrochemical industry is shifting from merely increasing oil production to focusing on high-value-added transformations, indicating a new phase in policy direction [6]. - The refining and chemical fiber sectors are expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on high-quality development and structural optimization of production capacity [6][7].

Group 1 - The current phase of the A-share bull market may have broken through the second consolidation phase and entered the third upward phase, with a potential peak forming in the range of 4200-4300 points, followed by a pullback and stabilization at the upper edge of the second consolidation phase [5] - Key points to monitor include the pressure release and capital reception in the 4200-4300 point range, as well as the effectiveness of support at the upper edge of the second consolidation phase and signals of stabilization in core sectors [5] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury yield curve in 2025 exhibited a "steepening" characteristic, with short-term yields significantly declining due to interest rate cuts, while long-term yields remained volatile at high levels due to economic outlook expectations and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability [5] - For 2026, the trend of U.S. Treasury yields is expected to continue the "steepening" pattern, with clearer interest rate cut paths potentially driving further declines in short-term yields, while uncertainties regarding tariffs and expectations of U.S. fiscal sustainability may cause long-term yields to remain high and fluctuate or rise slightly [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that there is no immediate need for concern regarding the recent rise in DR001, as it is still operating near the policy interest rate level, specifically at an average of 1.35% for the second half of 2025, which is below the 1.4% 7D OMO rate [4][5] - The statement "guiding overnight rates to operate near the policy interest rate" does not equate to having the average overnight rate equal to the policy rate, indicating that the current level of DR001 is acceptable [4][5] - Recent increases in DR001, reaching 1.42% on January 22, 2026, are not alarming as this value is only at the 86th percentile since the second half of 2025 and reflects a return to normal levels rather than an extreme rise [6][7] Group 2 - The average values of DR001 from July to January show that December was relatively low at 1.29%, and the recent rise is merely a correction towards normal levels, with averages in other months around 1.37% [7] - The article emphasizes that if DR001's deviation from the policy rate is limited over a period, it indicates a "surrounding model," suggesting that short-term fluctuations should not be over-interpreted in terms of monetary policy stance [7]

Group 1 - The geopolitical situation has become increasingly tense since 2022, with major powers taking unilateral actions, leading to instability in international relations. The deep sea has emerged as a critical frontier for the competition over strategic resources and energy dominance [4] - The U.S. government, under Trump's administration, aims to become a global leader in responsible deep-sea mineral exploration and development, expediting the approval of mining licenses in international waters to encourage domestic companies to develop key mineral resources [4] - Although global legislation and environmental concerns may hinder the supply of deep-sea mineral resources in the short term, breakthroughs in technology and regulations could reshape the global mineral supply structure, making deep-sea resources a strategic asset for major powers in the long term [4] Group 2 - The Chinese government has recognized the strategic value of deep-sea resources, incorporating "deep-sea technology" as a key area in its 2025 government work report. This sector is crucial for resource independence, technological autonomy, and national defense [5] - A multi-level policy framework has been established by various government bodies, including the State Council and local governments, to support the growth of the deep-sea technology market and enhance the marine economy [5] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is a leader in deep-sea resource development, aiming to strengthen its oil and gas operations while exploring marine mineral resources. CNOOC has developed a comprehensive marine energy system, including conventional and deep-water oil and gas, LNG, and offshore wind power [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the characteristics and patterns of bull markets in the A-share market, emphasizing the alternating phases of upward and consolidation segments, with a low proportion of long-term downward phases [4]. Group 1: Bull Market Patterns - A-share bull markets typically follow a pattern of alternating "upward segments and consolidation segments," with long-term downward phases being rare [4]. - In a comprehensive bull market, the structure consists of "3 consolidation segments and 4 upward segments," while a structural bull market has "2 consolidation segments and 3 upward segments" [4]. Group 2: Characteristics of Second Consolidation Segment - Historical differences between comprehensive and structural bull markets during the second consolidation segment include significant variations in pullback magnitude, duration, market style, and activity level [5]. - From September 2024 to the present, the Shanghai Composite Index has formed 2 complete upward segments and 2 consolidation segments, currently transitioning from the second consolidation segment to the early stage of the third consolidation segment [5]. Group 3: Confirming Breakthrough from Consolidation to Upward Segment - A bull market's transition from the second consolidation segment to the third upward segment requires dual validation from technical patterns and policy events [6]. - A successful technical breakout above the upper boundary of the second consolidation segment, along with favorable policy signals, is essential for confirming the transition [6]. Group 4: Current Bull Market Type - The current bull market aligns more closely with the characteristics of a structural bull market, as the second consolidation segment exhibits "small pullback magnitude and long duration," which is distinct from comprehensive bull markets [7]. - The market style during the second consolidation segment has shown a "stronger winners" trend, consistent with historical structural bull markets [7]. Group 5: Potential Breakthrough of the Second Consolidation Segment - The current bull market may have already broken through the second consolidation segment, entering the third upward segment, as indicated by the Shanghai Composite Index's effective breakout and the appearance of a bullish candlestick pattern [8]. - Following the breakout, the market has shown steady upward movement, suggesting sufficient buying power and sustainability of the trend [8]. Group 6: Future Market Development - The initial phase of the third upward segment may form a temporary high between 4200-4300 points, followed by a potential pullback that stabilizes at the upper boundary of the second consolidation segment [9]. - Historical patterns suggest that after breaking through the second consolidation segment, the initial high in the third upward segment typically sees a rise of about 5% from the upper boundary and approximately 14.5% from the lower boundary of the second consolidation segment [9].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 2025年末，兴业银行总资产、贷款、非信贷类资产同比增速分别为5.6%、3.7%、7.8%，增速较3Q25末分 别变动+2、-0.6、+5.3pct，规模扩张进一步提速，贷款投放相对平稳。年末公司资产规模突破11万亿关 口，贷款规模增至5.95万亿，其中科技金融贷款突破1.12万亿、绿色贷款达1.1万亿、制造业贷款近万亿规 模，"五大新赛道"业务布局深化。 存款稳步增长，负债稳定性增强 2025年末，兴业银行总负债、存款、市场类负债同比增速分别为5.9%、7.2%、4.1%，分别较3Q末变动 +2.2、-0.4、+5.8pct，年末存款占负债比重58.2%，较年初提升0.7pct，负债端稳定性增强。公司持续拓展 低成本负债，后续伴随存 ...

Group 1: Excavator Sales and Market Trends - In December 2025, excavator sales in China (including exports) reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, up 10.9% [4] - For the entire year of 2025, excavator sales (including exports) totaled 235,257 units, marking a 17.0% increase, while domestic sales were 118,518 units, up 17.9% [4] - The non-excavator construction machinery segment showed significant recovery, with loader sales up 17.6%, grader sales up 70.5%, truck crane sales up 39.1%, crawler crane sales up 95.5%, and truck-mounted crane sales up 36.7% in December 2025 [4] Group 2: Export Growth and Opportunities - In December 2025, excavator exports reached 12,764 units, a 26.9% increase, with total annual exports at 116,739 units, up 16.1% [5] - The export value of construction machinery in December 2025 was $6.42 billion, a 27.2% increase, with the total annual export value at $60.17 billion, up 13.8% [5] - Future opportunities for construction machinery exports include demand growth in Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as increased penetration in high-end markets in Europe and the U.S. [5] Group 3: Electric Loader Sales and Industry Trends - Electric loader sales in December 2025 reached 2,722 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 218.7%, with an electrification rate of 22.2%, up 13.2 percentage points [7] - For the entire year of 2025, electric loader sales totaled 29,771 units, a 165.3% increase, with an electrification rate of 23.2%, up 12.9 percentage points [7] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for energy-saving and carbon reduction transformations in key industries, indicating that electrification will be a key development direction for the construction machinery sector [7] Group 4: Forklift Sales and Market Potential - In December 2025, total forklift sales reached 111,363 units, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.03%, with domestic sales at 63,807 units, down 5.2%, and export sales at 47,556 units, up 8.0% [8] - For the entire year of 2025, total forklift sales were 1,451,768 units, a 12.9% increase, with domestic sales at 906,812 units, up 12.6%, and export sales at 544,956 units, up 13.4% [8] - The rapid development of robotics and artificial intelligence is driving the penetration of unmanned forklifts, with projected sales of 39,000 units in 2025, a 39.3% increase, indicating significant market growth potential [8]