12月19日，毕盛资产（APS Asset Management）创始人、执行主席兼首席策略官王国辉（Wong Kok Hoi）做客由华尔街见闻和中欧国际工商学院联合主办 的「Alpha峰会」，就2025年后的中国经济前景与全球资产配置逻辑发表了深度演讲。 精彩观点： 1、驳斥"中国不可投资"论： 沃伦·巴菲特说得最好："如果袜子便宜，我会买很多袜子；如果股票便宜，我会买很多股票。"给中国贴上"不可投资"标签是一个有缺陷的概念。任何生 意，只要价格合适，都是可以投资的。在我44年的职业投资生涯中，从未听过任何股市被如此描述。 2、中国股市或已进入"多年牛市"： 到2030年，得益于庞大人口规模、货币升值以及巨大的科技产出，中国的GDP极有可能超过美国。因此，即使我一半的预测正确，中国股市也有可能已经 进入一个多年的牛市。 3、驳斥"日本化"： 中国不会重演日本的通缩危机。与当年的日本相比，中国拥有年均1万亿美元的贸易顺差，股市市盈率仅为15倍（日本当年为75倍），且主要银行体系依 然健康。 4、中国"MIT"优势之制造业（M）： 中国已经生产了全球34%的制成品。这不仅仅关乎工厂，还包括港口、高铁、电厂等完整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. private credit market, once touted as a "safe haven" for individual investors, is facing a dual shock of deteriorating fundamentals and collapsing confidence, leading to a reassessment of asset values [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Blue Owl Capital's withdrawal from financing Oracle's $10 billion AI data center project has triggered market fears of a breakdown in large-scale infrastructure financing [5] - This incident highlights a fundamental shift in the credit market's attitude towards aggressive capital expenditures by tech giants, resulting in pressure on Oracle's stock price and its partners [3][4] - The private credit industry, valued at over $2 trillion, is under significant stress as default rates rise and borrowers face pressure in a high-interest environment [4] Group 2: Impact on Business Development Companies (BDCs) - BDCs, which primarily serve individual investors, are experiencing significant stock price declines despite the S&P 500's approximate 16% increase this year [9] - The assets managed by BDCs have more than doubled since 2020 to around $450 billion, but the current market conditions are punishing investors who exit at the wrong time [10] - FS KKR Capital's stock has dropped about 33% this year, with a rising bad loan rate from 3.5% in January to approximately 5% by September [11][12] Group 3: Credit Quality and Defaults - The credit quality of BDCs is deteriorating, with significant investments facing default risks, such as KKR's $350 million investment in Kellermeyer Bergensons Services [11] - BlackRock's BDC reported a 7% default rate on loans, highlighting the systemic issues within the sector [13] - The situation is exacerbated by scandals involving companies like First Brands, which have led to substantial unrealized losses for firms holding their debt [14] Group 4: Liquidity and Valuation Issues - The liquidity crisis and valuation disputes are accelerating the market's decline, as seen in Blue Owl's failed attempt to merge its private BDC with publicly traded counterparts [15] - The disconnect between private asset pricing and public market valuations is causing panic-driven redemptions from investors [15] - Individual investors attracted by high dividends are now facing significant uncertainty regarding both returns and principal safety [16]

Core Viewpoint - Wallan Technology, one of the "Four Little Dragons" of domestic GPUs, is making significant strides towards becoming the first GPU stock in Hong Kong by planning an IPO to raise approximately HKD 48.55 billion [3][6]. Group 1: IPO Details - Wallan Technology plans to issue 247,692,800 H-shares at a price range of HKD 17.00 to HKD 19.60 per share, with the maximum fundraising amount being approximately HKD 48.55 billion if the upper limit is used [3][8]. - The stock code for Wallan Technology is "6082," and it is expected to officially start trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 2, 2026 [3][8]. - The entry fee for investors is approximately HKD 3,959.54 based on the upper limit price [9]. Group 2: Fund Utilization - The funds raised from the IPO will primarily be used to advance the development of next-generation chips such as BR20X and BR30X, as well as to invest in core technologies and enhance commercialization capabilities [12][18]. Group 3: Business Performance - Wallan Technology has accumulated a total of 24 binding orders valued at approximately RMB 821.8 million, along with five framework sales agreements and 24 sales contracts totaling RMB 1.24 billion, indicating a strong potential revenue reserve exceeding RMB 2 billion [14][15][19]. - The company reported rapid revenue growth, with revenues of RMB 62.03 million in 2023 and RMB 589.03 million in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.9% [20][24]. Group 4: Market Landscape - The smart computing chip market presents both opportunities and challenges, with the market share of Chinese enterprises expected to grow from approximately 20% in 2024 to about 60% by 2029 [28]. - However, the market is highly concentrated, with the top two players expected to hold 94.4% of the market share by 2024, leaving limited space for other participants [28]. Group 5: Investment and Strategic Decisions - Wallan Technology has attracted significant capital, having completed multiple rounds of financing totaling over RMB 9 billion, with notable investors including Qiming Venture Partners and IDG Capital [31]. - Initially targeting the A-share Science and Technology Innovation Board for its IPO, the company ultimately chose Hong Kong for its diverse investor base and capital acquisition opportunities [33].

Core Viewpoint - The unique phenomenon of "AI tech stocks and resource commodities (gold, copper) rising simultaneously" in 2025 reflects a common pricing strategy among major economies addressing the core issue of debt. The resolution of debt relies on technological advancements to enhance total factor productivity (AI path) or through inflation to dilute debt (resource path), representing two sides of the same macroeconomic logic [1][8]. Group 1: Changes in Profit Structure - The profit structure of China's A-share market has fundamentally changed, evolving from a previous "80/20" model to a current "60% traditional domestic demand + 40% emerging industries and overseas" model. The overseas segment shows higher profit quality than domestic operations, becoming a core support for market resilience [1][9]. - The overseas revenue share of A-share companies has exceeded 20% and continues to rise, with overseas business margins significantly higher than domestic ones, indicating that overall profitability will not experience systemic decline even if domestic profits remain under pressure [9]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - A-share ROE is expected to show a clearer upward trend, transitioning from a "fast bull" to a healthier "slow bull" market due to valuation constraints, enhanced regulatory oversight, and the entry of long-term incremental funds [1][16]. - The period from December to January is identified as a critical "buy the dip" window, with expectations of a "spring rally" in February to March, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in sectors that have undergone sufficient adjustments [4][22]. Group 3: Global Market Review - The performance of major markets, including the US, Germany, China, Japan, and South Korea, has shown a strong correlation in the rise of technology and resource sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals, driven primarily by earnings growth rather than mere valuation expansion [5][6]. - The simultaneous rise of technology and resource assets, particularly gold and AI stocks, reflects a dual pricing strategy addressing the global debt issue, with both sectors benefiting from the same macroeconomic conditions [7][8]. Group 4: Supply Constraints and Industry Trends - Supply constraints are becoming a dominant variable in various industries, including AI computing power, semiconductors, and resource sectors, indicating that as long as supply cannot be rapidly expanded, industry trends are unlikely to change [20][21]. - The copper price is expected to replicate the upward trajectory of gold, driven by historically low global inventories and anticipated recovery in manufacturing due to fiscal and monetary easing [3][14][15]. Group 5: Funding Sources and Market Dynamics - Three relatively certain sources of incremental funds are identified: long-term funds represented by state-owned enterprises, insurance funds with increasing equity allocation, and high-net-worth individuals reallocating from low-yield fixed income to equities [18][19]. - The current market environment suggests a "slow bull" rather than a rapid bull market, with traditional macro indicators losing significance while industry trends, global demand, and supply constraints become more critical pricing factors [23].

特朗普对下任美联储主席人选仍未做出最终决定， 候选人名单在12月初一度缩减至哈塞特（Hassett）一人后，沃什（Warsh）凭借上周的强势面试重新回到 竞争行列。 华尔街巨头和特朗普盟友正就人选问题各方游说，这场选拔已演变为一场跨越金融界和政界的激烈角逐。 据媒体报道， 美联储理事沃勒（Waller）本周也接受了特朗普面试，并获得企业高管支持。 BlackRock高管Rick Rieder计划于年底最后一周在特朗普私人俱 乐部接受面试，这表明 候选人范围再次扩大，竞争更加白热化。 媒体援引知情人士，华尔街内部人士一直在为沃什进行游说，致电政府官员为其争取支持，部分目标是将哈塞特排除在考虑范围之外。 尽管沃什的商界支持者认为，他相比哈塞特更能保持独立于白宫的立场，因其不太可能在经济环境未支持的情况下轻易推行降息，但特朗普曾向媒体表示，沃 什在交流中曾明确向其传递美联储应当降息的信息。 前达拉斯联储主席Richard Fisher表示："我认为除非对特朗普总统做出某种承诺，否则你无法得到这份工作。" 华尔街巨头积极介入人选博弈 批评者认为哈塞特与特朗普关系过于密切，可能缺乏作为独立央行主席在债券市场的可信度。 ...

Economic Indicators - China's December one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) are expected to remain unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively, marking the seventh consecutive month of stability [12][13] - The U.S. is set to release its Q3 GDP report on December 23, with market expectations for an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 2.5% [5][6] - Japan's Tokyo CPI is projected to rise by 2.2% in December, down from 2.7% in November, indicating a cooling trend [14] Key Events - The 19th session of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee will be held in Beijing from December 22 to 27 [22] - Huawei will hold a launch event for the nova15 series and other products on December 22 [24] - The U.S. will update its PCE data alongside the Q3 GDP report on December 23 [8] Corporate Developments - Oracle Japan is scheduled to release its latest financial report on December 23 [30] - Shenzhen Dapu Microelectronics will have its IPO application reviewed by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on December 25 [31] - Several companies, including Limoneira and GTIM, are expected to announce their earnings reports [30] Market Activity - Global stock markets, including U.S., Hong Kong, and European markets, will observe trading halts around Christmas, with specific early closures noted [16][19] - The Hong Kong stock market will be closed from December 25 to 26, with no northbound trading available during this period [17]

Core Viewpoint - The market is beginning to position itself for strong economic growth in 2026, with expectations of interest rate cuts, tax reductions, and tariff cuts driving corporate earnings acceleration [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - The Bank of America’s bull-bear sentiment indicator has risen to 8.5, signaling an extreme level of optimism in the market, which may lead to adjustment risks [2][12] - Global stock inflows reached $98.2 billion in a single week, with U.S. stocks attracting $77.9 billion, marking the second-largest weekly inflow on record [5][4] - There was a significant outflow of $43.9 billion from cash assets, the largest since April of this year, indicating a notable increase in market risk appetite [7] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategist recommends positioning for a declining inflation trend by going long on zero-coupon bonds, mid-cap stocks, and emerging market equities, rather than simply chasing the current bullish consensus on risk assets [3] Group 3: Macro Outlook and Risks - In an optimistic scenario, if CPI falls to 2% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield drops to around 3.5%, risk assets could receive substantial support [8] - Potential risks include global liquidity nearing its peak, the possibility that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts may be less than the market's current expectation of 150 basis points, and the chance of the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate to the highest level since 1995 [9] Group 4: Structural Risks - While overall market positioning does not show overheating, structural risks are accumulating, including high margin debt growth outpacing market gains and elevated hedge fund leverage [17] - The concentration of investor holdings in AI and technology sectors raises concerns reminiscent of market structures in 2000 and 2007 [17] - Global long-term yields are on the rise, posing a risk that could increase bond market volatility and materially threaten the stock market, even if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates [17]

Core Insights - Elon Musk's personal net worth has surged to $749 billion, making him the first individual in history to surpass a net worth of $700 billion [2] - This milestone in wealth growth is attributed to a ruling by the Delaware Supreme Court, which reinstated previously revoked Tesla stock options valued at $139 billion [3][4] - The court deemed the 2024 ruling that annulled Musk's compensation plan as improper and unfair, resulting in a single-day increase of $139 billion in his net worth [4] Summary by Sections Wealth Increase - Musk's wealth now exceeds that of the second richest person, Google co-founder Larry Page, by nearly $500 billion, solidifying his position as the world's richest individual [5][15] - The compensation plan, initially valued at $56 billion, has grown to $139 billion due to the rise in Tesla's stock price [9] Legal and Compensation Developments - Musk's 2018 compensation plan has faced a tumultuous judicial review process, having been deemed invalid by a lower court two years ago due to its excessive scale and procedural issues [6][7] - The recent ruling by the Delaware Supreme Court overturned the lower court's decision, allowing the compensation plan to remain in effect [8] Company Valuation and Future Prospects - Reports suggest that Musk's aerospace startup, SpaceX, is planning an internal share sale, with a potential valuation reaching $800 billion, making it the highest-valued private company globally [11][12] - Tesla shareholders have approved a $1 trillion compensation plan, the largest corporate compensation scheme in history, reflecting investor confidence in Musk's vision of transforming Tesla into a leader in AI and robotics [13][14] Wealth Disparity - The wealth gap between Musk and the second richest individual has reached nearly $500 billion, marking the largest wealth divide on the global billionaire list [15] - This disparity is comparable to the annual GDP of a medium-sized developed country [16]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global stock market will continue its bull market into 2026, but the index returns will be lower than in 2025, with a broader diversification in the market as AI benefits spread from core tech giants to a wider range of industries [1][2] Economic Environment - The global economy is expected to maintain a comprehensive expansion in 2026, supported by further moderate easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, providing solid support for the stock market [2] Return Expectations - According to regional market capitalization weighting, the expected price return for the global stock market in 2026 is 13%, with a total return including dividends reaching 15%, primarily driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3][8] Market Cycle Stages - The stock market cycle is categorized into four stages: "Despair" (bear market), "Hope" (valuation-driven rebound), "Growth" (longest phase driven by earnings), and "Optimism" (increased investor confidence leading to valuation rises) [4] Market Trends - The report notes a significant broadening trend in the global stock market in 2025, which is expected to continue into 2026, breaking the previous highly concentrated market structure [9][10] Performance of Major Markets - In 2025, for the first time in nearly 15 years, U.S. stocks underperformed, with total returns in Europe, China, and Asia nearly double that of the U.S. market [10][11] Regional Performance Predictions - In 2026, U.S. stocks are expected to slightly underperform compared to global markets, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) and MSCI Emerging Markets indices projected to achieve total returns of 18%, surpassing the expected 15% for the S&P 500 [12] Investment Styles - The U.S. market remains dominated by growth stocks, while non-U.S. markets are seeing better performance from value stocks, indicating a shift from the past decade's growth stock dominance [13] Sector Performance - The trend of broadening returns is evident, with technology and finance leading in 2025, while real estate and healthcare lagged, reflecting the emergence of quality stocks within both growth and value sectors [14] Concentration of Earnings - The contribution of the top seven tech giants to the S&P 500's earnings is expected to decrease from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026, with the earnings growth of the remaining 493 companies increasing from 7% to 9%, indicating a further decline in industry concentration [15] AI Benefits Expansion - In 2026, the benefits of AI are expected to spread from core tech giants to a broader range of industries and companies, particularly those that can leverage AI and related technologies to enhance profitability and productivity [16][20] Market Dynamics - The current tech stock enthusiasm is not seen as a bubble, as today's tech giants possess stronger balance sheets and cash flows compared to the 2000 internet bubble [17] Investor Behavior - The correlation of stocks among the five major AI hyperscalers has dropped from 80% to 20%, indicating that investors are becoming more selective about which companies to invest in within the tech sector [18] Cross-Industry Growth - The spillover effects of tech capital expenditures are expected to drive growth in non-tech sectors such as industrials, materials, and finance, creating a cross-industry growth wave termed "AI + Industry" [21]

Core Viewpoints - The current phase of the AI revolution is likened to a party that started at 9 PM and is only at 10:30 PM, indicating that there is still much room for growth and investment opportunities in the sector [3][16] - The situation is compared to 1996, where the current AI landscape is driven by large tech companies with substantial cash flows, rather than the speculative environment of 1999 [4][16] - The multiplier effect of spending on Nvidia chips is significant, with every dollar spent generating 8 to 10 dollars in the broader tech ecosystem [5][19] AI Revolution Insights - The AI revolution is still in its early stages, with the first layer being chips and subsequent layers in software, cybersecurity, and infrastructure just beginning to emerge [6][19] - There is a current supply-demand imbalance for Nvidia chips at a ratio of 12:1, indicating strong demand and a capital expenditure supercycle [7][21] - The year 2026 is projected to be a critical moment for monetization in AI, distinguishing successful companies from those that fail to execute monetization strategies [8][22] Consumer AI and Market Dynamics - Apple is expected to lead the consumer AI revolution, leveraging its 2.4 billion iOS devices to become a key entry point for AI applications [9][24] - China holds significant advantages in power supply and robotics, particularly in humanoid robots, positioning it as a leader in the AI race [10][21] - The relationship between the US and China is characterized as one of interdependence rather than decoupling, with both countries needing to collaborate for the AI revolution to reach its peak [11][21] Future Projections - By 2030, it is anticipated that 20% of vehicles will be autonomous, and every 10 to 15 households will have a humanoid robot [12] - The technology sector is expected to see a continued bullish trend, with a projected 25% increase in tech stocks over the next year, lasting at least until 2027 [15][25]