金融人必备！股神思维 + 专属助手 黄金跌破每盎司4000美元，业内普遍认为此前的涨势已变得不可持续，市场正在挤出"泡沫"。 周一，国际金价最低跌至每盎司3980美元，此前刚刚在短短七周内飙升27%，于10月20日触及4381美元的高点。一周之内， 金价较近期高点已下跌超过9% ，行业人士将早前的涨势归咎于投资者的"投机性"持仓。 业内高管预计金价将在未来几周进入更深度的回调。 世界黄金协会市场策略师John Reade在伦敦金银市场协会京都年会间隙表示：" 我认为行业内很多人实际 上会欢迎比目前更深的回调 。" 一家大型黄金交易银行的高级主管则更直言不讳："只有疯子才会认为黄金会涨到这么高。" 尽管汇丰、美银和法国兴业银行等机构仍 维持明年金价5000美元的目标，但即便是看涨者也对近期的下跌感到紧张 。眼下，黄金市场面临的问题包括零售投 资者需求的可持续性，以及央行是否会因高价放缓购金步伐。 业内欢迎"健康回调" 10月28日，据媒体报道，在本周黄金行业最大的年度会议上，与会者的乐观情绪被意外的警告所打断—— 金价可能需要进一步下跌才能恢复上涨。 业内高管将这轮下跌视为对过热涨势的"健康回调"。 代表黄金矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - Short-term investment in gold is no longer considered wise due to high volatility and crowded trades, while medium to long-term outlook remains positive with projected price increases [1][2][18]. Short-term vs Long-term Strategies - For short-term trading funds, the best strategy is to remain on the sidelines and wait for a significant drop in volatility before entering the market, as trading in a high-volatility environment yields low returns [4][7]. - For long-term investment funds, the current strategy should be to wait for buying opportunities in the 3800-3900 USD/oz range, which is identified as a key support level for 2025 [5][13]. Volatility and Market Trends - Historical analysis indicates that a return to low volatility is a prerequisite for the initiation of new market trends, whether upward or downward [6][8]. - The current high volatility environment makes it difficult for new trends to form, necessitating patience from investors [7][8]. Price Projections - The quantitative model from Shenwan Hongyuan predicts that the gold price will stabilize at 4814 USD/oz by 2026, supported by factors such as rising global fiscal deficits and continued central bank purchases [14][15]. - Morgan Stanley expresses a contrasting view, favoring U.S. Treasury bonds over gold, citing that gold has underperformed U.S. Treasuries over the past 50 years [2]. Market Sentiment and Buying Trends - Despite recent price declines, major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs maintain a bullish outlook on gold, with Goldman Sachs suggesting a target price of 4900 USD/oz, indicating potential upward risks [18][20]. - Reports from gold dealers indicate a surge in retail buying, as investors view the price drop as an opportunity to purchase gold at lower prices [21][22][23]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the gold market remains cautiously optimistic for the long term, with significant buying interest from both institutional and retail investors, despite short-term volatility challenges [19][24].

一年前还在监狱服刑的币安创始人赵长鹏，如今获得了美国总统特朗普的赦免。 这一戏剧性转折不仅为这位因允许洗钱者使用其加密货币交易平台而获罪的企业家开启了新篇章，也成为特朗普政府华盛顿权力运作的最新注脚——只要能雇得 起合适的说客。 华尔街见闻此前文章写道，特朗普上周四（10月23日）表示：" 我相信我从未见过他，但很多人告诉我他获得了大量支持。他们说他所做的甚至不是犯罪，他是 被拜登政府迫害的，所以应很多好人的请求，我赦免了他。" 10月25日，据美国媒体Politico报道， 这些"好人"中的关键人物，包括特朗普长子的狩猎伙伴Ches McDowell，以及曾被特朗普考虑担任SEC主席的加密货币 律师Teresa Goody Guillén。 对促成赦免的说客们来说，这是一次实力展示，体现了 华盛顿K街权力（K街是美国政治中"游说"的代名词）向与白宫有直接联系的公司转移的趋势。 这次赦免是赵长鹏和币安近一年来积极靠近特朗普政府努力的结果。除了游说攻势外，币安还与特朗普家族利润丰厚的加密货币项目World Liberty Financial建 立了业务联系。 天价游说：一个月45万美元 McDowell的北卡罗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Financial Street Forum focuses on monetary policy, liquidity mechanisms for non-bank institutions, and the importance of maintaining financial stability while addressing credit issues for individuals affected by the pandemic [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is exploring mechanisms to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific circumstances to maintain market stability and prevent moral hazards [2]. - PBOC will continue to implement a supportive monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools to ensure short-term, medium-term, and long-term liquidity arrangements, thereby keeping social financing conditions relatively loose [3]. - The PBOC plans to resume open market operations for government bonds, which is seen as a crucial step to enhance the financial functions of government bonds and improve market stability [5]. Group 2: Credit Repair and Individual Support - PBOC is researching policies to support individuals in repairing their credit records, particularly for those who have defaulted due to uncontrollable circumstances like the pandemic but have since repaid their debts [4]. - A proposed one-time personal credit relief policy aims to prevent the display of certain default information in credit systems for individuals who meet specific criteria, with implementation expected early next year [4]. Group 3: Virtual Currency and Financial Regulation - PBOC will continue to combat domestic virtual currency operations and speculation while closely monitoring the development of foreign stablecoins, which pose potential financial risks [6][7]. - The central bank emphasizes the need for a comprehensive macro-prudential management system to better cover systemic financial institutions and assess risks from international economic and financial markets [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's debt burden is accelerating, projected to surpass that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century, with total debt as a percentage of GDP expected to reach 143.4% by 2030, marking a significant increase of over 20 percentage points from current levels [1][3]. Debt Trajectory - By 2030, the debt-to-GDP ratio for Italy and Greece is expected to decline, while the U.S. ratio will continue to rise, indicating a long-term trend of increasing debt in the U.S. as per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) [2][3]. - The IMF predicts that the U.S. budget deficit will remain above 7% of GDP annually until 2030, making it the highest among all wealthy nations tracked by the IMF [1]. Political and Economic Context - The Biden administration has seen a rapid expansion of the federal deficit, with limited progress made during the Trump administration to address the issue [3][4]. - Political dynamics in the U.S. complicate efforts to reduce the deficit, as both major parties are resistant to significant changes in spending or taxation [4]. Italy's Fiscal Discipline - Italy is recognized for its efforts to control budget deficits, with a projected fiscal deficit of 3% of GDP this year, down from 8.1% when the current government took office [6]. - The Italian government is expected to achieve a primary surplus of 0.9% of GDP, exceeding initial forecasts [6]. Sustainability Concerns - Despite the U.S. having a lower net government debt level compared to Italy, concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy are growing due to the rising debt trajectory [7]. - Analysts emphasize that any predictions regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal conditions must consider various economic factors, including productivity growth and tax revenues [7].

上任仅九个月的时间里，贝森特——这位63岁的美国财长负责推进了特朗普激进的关税议程、主导了对美联储的改革、放松了加密货币监管、开启了减税 的大门。 在接受英国《金融时报》专访时，特朗普政府财政部长、前对冲基金经理 贝森特系统阐述了他的核心工作理念： "在不激怒市场的前提下，最大化推行'MAGA'。" 贝森特在采访中表示，与其它非正统的民粹主义政府不同， 他"对市场抱有健康的敬畏之心"，必须"尊重市场"。 对于特朗普政府全球大规模征收关税，造成市场动荡的行为， 贝森特表示，特朗普的策略"总是先宣布高额关税以创造谈判杠杆，随后再将其降低"。他评价 道： "他（特朗普）的风险承受能力比我高。" 力推MAGA的财政部长，挥霍美财政部信誉？ 作为特朗普内阁中负责全球最大经济体及其债务市场的核心人物，贝森特将Maga议程全面引入美国财政部。 值得一提的是，在特朗普的首个任期内，财政部 曾被视为抵制特朗普政策的堡垒。 这种做法为他赢得了总统的巨大信任。 宾夕法尼亚州共和党参议员戴维·麦考密克（David McCormick）透露： 特朗普对他抱有极大的信心"，并视其为"理性的声音"和"能把事情办成的人。 然而，这一做法也引 ...

在华尔街对英伟达的狂热追捧中，一位分析师正在逆流而行。 在覆盖英伟达的80名分析师中，Seaport Global Securities分析师Jay Goldberg给出了唯一的"卖出"评级，并将目标价定在100美元。 "围绕AI的所有炒作，我都持怀疑态度，" Goldberg在接受彭博采访时表示，"这不是我第一次看到泡沫。" 历史重演？剑指科网泡沫 在Goldberg看来，当前英伟达的惊人增长，主要依赖于少数几家科技巨头的巨额资本支出。微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta、甲骨文以及OpenAI这六家公司 正在争相建设AI基础设施，它们的采购需求造就了英伟达高达4.5万亿美元的市值。 2025年，这五家上市公司预计资本开支将接近4000亿美元，OpenAI也承诺投入逾1万亿美元。 然而，Goldberg提醒投资者关注这些巨额投入迄今为止所产生的实际回报有多么有限。 他认为， 这种模式与科网泡沫时期的电信基础设施建设非常相似，当时思科等公司的股价因预期中的互联网流量而飙升，但当预期未能立即兑现时，股价便遭 受重创。二十多年后，思科的股价仍未回到2000年的高点。 他将当前的局面类比为2000年前后的科网泡 ...

重点关注： 2025年亚太经济合作组织（APEC）领导人非正式会议、超级央行周，美联储、日本央行、欧洲央行、加拿大央行等将公布利率决议。 | 时间 | | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10月27日 周一 | | | | | | 数据 | 09:30 | 中国 9月规模以上工业企业利润同比 | | 20.4% | | 事件 | 待定 | 2025金融街论坛年会开幕, "一行两局一会"主要 负责人将做主题演讲 | | | | 财报 | | 恒瑞医药、芯原股份、长盛轴承、胜宏科技 | | | | 10月28日 周二 | | | | | | 数据 | | 元 | | | | 事件 | | 元 | | | | 财报 | | 传音控股、安孚科技、东芯股份、中国平安 | | | | 10月29日 周三 | | | | | | 数据 | | 元 | | | | 00:00 | | 华盛顿特区 NVIDIA GTC 大会 黄仁勋发表演讲 | | | | 事件 | 待定 | 美国总统特朗普访问韩国 | | | | 21:45 | | 加拿大央行公布利率决议和货 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent crash in the gold market, with a 6.3% drop marking the largest single-day decline since 2013, was widely anticipated and did not trigger panic among investors, instead sparking a buying frenzy among retail investors [1][3]. Market Reaction - Despite the significant drop, global retail investors rushed to buy gold, viewing the price decline as a buying opportunity, with reports of high demand from dealers in Singapore and the U.S. [7][8][9]. - Analysts generally maintain a positive outlook, considering the price drop a "healthy correction" necessary to clear market excesses and ensure the sustainability of the bull market [10][11]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from MKS Pamp SA and Morgan Stanley suggest that the recent price drop will be absorbed by other buyers, including central banks, leading to limited overall price declines [11]. - The core drivers of the current gold bull market include significant purchases by central banks, concerns over unsustainable sovereign debt levels, and increased participation from retail investors [11]. Contrarian Views - Some analysts, like Michael Hartnett from Bank of America, question the solidity of the "devaluation trade" supporting gold prices, citing factors such as low U.S. Treasury yields, a budget surplus in September, and the resilience of the U.S. dollar index [12][13]. - Even bullish analysts acknowledge risks, including a potential slowdown in central bank purchases, which could impact the bullish outlook for gold [15].

白宫方面则面临外界质疑。在被问及此次赦免是否构成腐败交易时，白宫女发言人Karoline Leavitt周四回应称，该决定经过了白宫律师的"彻底审查"。此前， 币安曾协助一家与特朗普有关联的公司推出稳定币项目，此举引发了民主党人的抨击，他们认为赦免是利益冲突扩大的又一例证。 特朗普一纸赦令，赵长鹏重燃美国雄心 特朗普的赦免为赵长鹏重新参与币安的运营打开了大门。"总统赦免的影响相当广泛"，DGIM Law律师事务所合伙人Jonathan Groth表示： 获得特朗普赦免为币安联合创始人赵长鹏扫清了法律障碍，更重要的是，这重新点燃了这家全球最大加密货币交易所征服美国市场的雄心。 美国总统特朗普发布赦免令数小时后，币安联合创始人、亿万富翁赵长鹏在飞机上发出感谢信。他在社交平台X上写道： "深深感激今天的赦免，也感谢特朗普总统维护了美国对公平、创新和正义的承诺。 我们将竭尽所能，帮助美国成为加密货币之都， 并推动web3在全球的发 展。" 这一赦免令的发布，距离赵长鹏承认未能有效阻止洗钱活动并辞去币安首席执行官一职过去了近两年。消息传出后，与币安生态系统绑定的原生代币BNB周四 一度飙升8%。 "这似乎意味着赵长鹏现 ...