德国新总理默茨在议会首轮投票中意外败北，虽然第二轮投票勉强过关，但这一波折已经严重削弱其权威与执政基础。 图 片下方人物为 弗里德里希·默茨 投资者信心与经济复苏前景受挫 5月6日这天本应是默茨政治生涯的高光时刻，德国联邦议院大厅座无虚席，前总理默克尔、默茨的家人及政界要员齐聚一堂，准备见证德国战后第十位总理的 诞生。 然而，随后宣布的结果却令所有人大跌眼镜。 据 环球网 报道，在 第一轮投票中，默茨仅获得310张赞成票，比所需的316票少了6票。这是德国二战后首次出现总理候选人未能在第一轮投票中获得多数票 当选。这一结果令德国舆论哗然。 虽然经过数小时的紧急会谈和幕后角力， 默茨在当天晚些时候的第二轮投票中终于获得了所需的绝对多数票 。 但首轮失败已给他的执政开局蒙上了阴影，严 重损害了他的政治权威，也令资者对德国政局稳定性，以及默茨能否迅速稳定局势并开始推进其经济改革议程产生了质疑。 默茨执政开局遭遇政治危机 对于默茨一波三折当选，政治学家Andrea Römmele评论称："历史性的。这绝对是历史性的。从来没有哪位总理在首轮投票中落败，没人预料到这种情况。" "这表明整个联盟多么脆弱，"Römmele补 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including interest rate cuts and liquidity provisions [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.5%, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4]. - The structural monetary policy interest rate has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, and the policy rate has been adjusted from 1.5% to 1.4% [4]. - The personal housing provident fund interest rate has been decreased by 0.25 percentage points, with the 5-year and above first home loan rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6% [4]. Group 2: Capital Market Support - The PBOC has optimized two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, merging the quotas for securities fund insurance company swaps (5 billion yuan) and stock repurchase loans (3 billion yuan) into a total quota of 8 billion yuan [4]. - The PBOC will also lower the reserve requirement ratio for car rental companies [5]. Group 3: Regulatory and Policy Initiatives - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has introduced eight new policies aimed at increasing financing options for real estate and expanding the scope for long-term investments by insurance funds [5]. - The policies include adjustments to regulatory rules, lowering investment risk factors for insurance companies in stock investments, and developing a comprehensive financing policy for small and private enterprises [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focused on maintaining market stability and enhancing responses to external risks, supporting the Central Huijin Investment Company in its stabilizing role [5].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley traders are more optimistic about the U.S. stock market compared to Goldman Sachs, predicting that the S&P 500 index will first reach 6000 points before facing potential declines [1][2]. Group 1: S&P 500 Index Projections - As of May 5, the S&P 500 index closed at 5650 points, indicating less than a 10% upside to Morgan Stanley's target of 6000 points [3]. - Morgan Stanley outlines a potential path for the S&P 500 to reach 6000 points, driven by factors such as the activation of CTA strategies, accelerated stock buybacks, and retail investor participation [5][8]. - The firm suggests that if the index surpasses 5800 points, it could trigger a short squeeze, leading to further upward momentum [5]. Group 2: Mid-term Outlook - Despite the optimistic short-term outlook, Morgan Stanley warns that reaching 6000 points may represent a peak, with a subsequent bearish outlook for the mid-term [4][10]. - The firm anticipates a significant decline in hard economic data, such as non-farm payrolls and retail sales, within the next 1-2 months [10]. - Two potential narratives could emerge regarding the economic situation: high tariffs with ongoing trade negotiations or a temporary economic soft landing due to signed agreements [11][12]. Group 3: Potential Downside Risks - Morgan Stanley believes that the most likely scenario involves high tariffs persisting, which could hinder the stock market's performance [13]. - The firm predicts that the market may retest lower levels, with potential downward adjustments to S&P 500 earnings expectations [14]. - A rapid decline to 5000 points could occur if macroeconomic data deteriorates significantly, such as non-farm payrolls falling below 50,000, and unresolved trade relations [16].

以下文章来源于追风交易台 ，作者追风交易台 追风交易台 . 全球宏观研究、交易、配置，你不能错过 美元贬值可能还没结束？ 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Teresa Alves在5月1日的报告中表示，美元目前被高估约16%， 这一估值错配主要由全球资金追逐美国卓越回报前景所驱动。 随着美国回报优势逐渐减弱，美元的高估状态可能将逐步纠正。这对投资者意味着美元资产价值可能面临中期调整压力。 美元高估约16% 高盛采用两种主要模型——GSDEER和GSFEER——评估美元估值， 结果显示实际贸易加权美元指数较其公允价值高出约16%。 美国经常账户赤字与美元调整 高盛研究指出，美元高估程度高度依赖于经常账户"标准水平"的假设。 当前美国实际经常账户赤字约4%，如果经常账户赤字缩小至2.6%，将对应约16.5%的美元调整；若进一步缩小至2%（接近IMF2023年标准值），则可能导致 22%的美元贬值；若降至1%，可能需要31%的美元贬值才能实现。 研究强调，由于美国是相对封闭的经济体（出口占GDP约11%），相比其他更开放的经济体，需要更大幅度的汇率调整才能弥合同等规模的经常账户缺口。 高盛强调，美元估值本身并不是催化剂 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve in responding to the Trump administration's tariff policies, suggesting that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is in a "goalkeeper's dilemma," where maintaining interest rates to combat inflation could further slow the economy, while cutting rates to stimulate growth may exacerbate short-term inflation pressures caused by tariffs or supply shortages [1][2]. - The Fed is likely to prioritize "inflation control" in its decision-making process, especially in light of potential price increases from tariffs [2][4]. Group 2: Labor Market and Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed will closely monitor labor market changes, using employment data as a critical reference for its decisions. It will not preemptively cut rates based on anticipated economic slowdown without clear data [2][3]. - If there are clear signs of labor market deterioration, the Fed may be prepared to act, but the extent of inflation will be a limiting factor in its decision to lower rates [5][9]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations Management - Managing inflation expectations is crucial for the Fed, as stable expectations can lower the cost of controlling inflation. If expectations become unanchored, it will be more challenging to manage inflation [5][6]. - The Fed's communication strategy has become more complex due to public criticism from Trump, necessitating a cautious approach to guide market expectations [7][8]. Group 4: Divergence Among Fed Officials - There is a division among Fed officials regarding whether the price increases from tariffs will be temporary. Some believe that without the tariff-induced price pressures, the Fed might have already begun cutting rates [9][11]. - Former Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren suggests that the Fed should cut rates in response to economic weakness, as rate cuts can help offset weak demand but do not address supply chain issues [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competitive landscape of large model development in China, focusing on the advancements of DeepSeek and Kimi, and the challenges they face from larger companies like Alibaba and Baidu [2][15]. Group 1: Model Developments - DeepSeek launched its new model, DeepSeek-Prover-V2, with a parameter scale of 671 billion, significantly larger than the previous version's 7 billion, enhancing efficiency and accuracy in mathematical tasks [3][4]. - Kimi, developed by the team at Moonlight, released a model called Kimina-Prover with 1.5 billion and 7 billion parameter distilled versions, achieving a miniF2F test pass rate of 80.7% [3][4]. - The performance of DeepSeek-Prover-V2 surpassed that of Kimina-Prover in both miniF2F and PutnamBench tests, indicating a competitive edge in mathematical reasoning capabilities [4]. Group 2: Competitive Challenges - DeepSeek faces declining interest in its R1 model, with competitors like Alibaba rapidly advancing their models, prompting expectations for new releases like R2 or V4 [6][18]. - Kimi is also under pressure from ByteDance's Doubao and Tencent's Yuanbao, necessitating continuous innovation to maintain its market position [7][16]. - The article highlights the rapid growth of Kimi, which reached 20 million monthly active users in November 2024, trailing behind Doubao's 56 million [16]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Alibaba's new model, Qwen3, is described as a hybrid reasoning model that outperforms DeepSeek's R1, with a parameter count only one-third of R1's [19]. - Baidu's recent releases, including Wenxin 4.5 Turbo, are noted for their superior performance and lower costs compared to DeepSeek, with criticisms regarding DeepSeek's speed and pricing [20][21]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with more players entering the large model open-source race, emphasizing the need for advanced technology to set industry standards [22].

以下文章来源于见闻历 ，作者卜淑情 见闻历 . 每天多看我一眼，投资赚的多一点。 | 时间 | 地区 | 内容 | 预期 | 前値 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5月05日 | 周一 | | | | | 数据 | 海外 | 21:45 美国4月Markit服务业PMI终值 | 51.2 | 51.4 | | | | 22:00 美国4月ISM非制造业指数 | 50.3 | 50.8 | | | | 英国伦敦证券交易所因银行假日休市一日 | | | | 事件 | 海外 | 日本、韩国股市休市，至5月6日 | | | | | | 待定 沙特阿美在每月5日左右公布官方原油售价 | | | | 财报 | 海外 | BioNTech、泰森食品、安森美半导体 | | | | | | Palantir、福特汽车 | | | | 5月06日 | 周二 | | | | | 数据 | 国内 | 09:45 中国4月财新服务业PMI | | 51.9 | | | | 09:45 中国4月财新综合PMI | | 51.8 | | | 海外 | 16:00 欧元区4月服务业PMI终值 | 49 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the unpredictable nature of Trump's trade policies, the earnings season for major U.S. tech companies has surprisingly strong performance, alleviating investor concerns about potential worst-case scenarios [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - The earnings forecast for the "Mag7" is expected to grow by 21.6% in 2025, with revenue growth projected at 9.7%, both estimates having increased over the past week [1]. - Four companies within the Mag7 have provided revenue forecasts that are either in line with or exceed Wall Street expectations, indicating overall market resilience [2]. - Microsoft’s revenue forecast exceeded expectations due to strong performance in its Azure cloud computing business, which continues to see demand outstrip data center capacity [2]. Group 2: AI and Capital Expenditure - Concerns regarding capital expenditures for AI computing devices have eased, benefiting companies like Nvidia and Broadcom, which rely on such spending for revenue growth [3]. - Meta has raised its capital expenditure forecast for the year, while Microsoft anticipates a slowdown in growth for such expenditures next year, but still expects an increase [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Challenges - Overall, the financial reports have provided strong support for a market rebound, with investors adopting a cautiously optimistic outlook despite ongoing uncertainties [2]. - Tesla has abandoned its previous forecast for revenue growth recovery by 2025, and Apple has indicated an increase of $900 million in costs due to tariffs, leading to downgrades from two Wall Street firms [4]. - Despite concerns about potential downturns, the general sentiment remains positive, with many believing the situation is better than expected [5].

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased production for two consecutive months, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, with Brent crude falling over 20% this year [1][3][11] Group 1: Production Increase - OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, nearly three times higher than Goldman Sachs' initial forecast of 140,000 barrels per day [5] - Over the past two months, OPEC+ will add more than 800,000 barrels per day to the market, severely impacting an already fragile market [5][8] - The decision to increase production reflects a strategic shift within OPEC+, prioritizing production discipline over price stability [6][10] Group 2: Market Reaction - On Monday, U.S. crude futures fell by 4.27%, dropping to $56.30 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped 3.9% to $59.09 per barrel [2][3] - The increase in supply has caught the market off guard, especially following a similar production increase announced just a month prior [8] - The oil market is facing downward pressure due to a mismatch between supply and demand, exacerbated by concerns over economic recession stemming from U.S. tariff policies [9] Group 3: Compliance and Challenges - OPEC+ is facing compliance issues, particularly from Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have not adhered to production agreements [8] - The financial breakeven points for member countries vary significantly, with Russia needing $62 per barrel and Saudi Arabia requiring $81, creating a high-stakes "game of chicken" among members [9] - The long-term threats to OPEC+ include the resurgence of U.S. shale oil production and the global energy transition, which could further complicate their strategy [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts are revising their forecasts downward due to the unexpected supply surge, with Goldman Sachs' previous price predictions for U.S. and Brent crude potentially facing adjustments [11] - Oilfield service companies like Baker Hughes anticipate a reduction in exploration and production investments due to the oversupply outlook and geopolitical uncertainties [12] - The current data indicates a bearish outlook, with OPEC+ prioritizing short-term supply over price stability, suggesting further price declines may occur before compliance improves or geopolitical risks diminish [13][14]

周六，伯克希尔哈撒韦将于内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行年度股东大会。该公司在大会前发布的财报显示， 公司第一季度运营利润为96.4亿美元，去年同期112亿美元，同比下跌14%。该公司警告，关税可能会 进一步打击公司利润。 以下为伯克希尔哈撒韦第一季度财报要点： 主要财务数据： 营收： 伯克希尔哈撒韦第一季度营收897.25亿美元，上年同期898.69亿美元。 运营利润： 伯克希尔哈撒韦本季度的营业利润同比下降14%，为96亿美元，折合每股A类 股票收益为6703.41美元，不及分析师预期的7076.90美元 净利润： 伯克希尔哈撒韦第一季度净利润46.03亿美元，上年同期盈利127.02亿美元。折 合每股A类股票收益为3200美元 投资净亏损： 伯克希尔哈撒韦第一季度投资净亏损50.38亿美元，上年同期盈利14.8亿美 元。 持有债券： 伯克希尔哈撒韦截至一季度末持有的固定收益证券投资公允价值达150.35亿美 元，其中，对美债、外国债券、企业债券的投资公允价值分别为40.42亿美元，94.52亿美 元，15.41亿美元。 现金储备： 伯克希尔在第一季度末的现金储备升至3477亿美元，再创历史新高。 保险业务： 保险 ...