作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 不考虑关税影响的内生通胀比预期更稳定，"劳工荒""住房荒""鸡蛋荒"均在持续缓解，车辆保险通胀亦逐渐回 归合理区间。叠加关税形势已在缓和，即将到来的关税通胀可能不会推升长期通胀预期，并被美联储定性 为"暂时性通胀"。与此同时，随着空缺职位的消耗，美国失业率或将开启新一轮上行，为美联储打开新一轮降 息的大门。 我们认为长端美债已经进入"击球区"，美元亦已再度具备做空价值。 一、宏观：通胀读数或已触及年内低点 4月美国CPI通胀数据超预期回落，创本轮大通胀以来新低。 图1：美国通胀读数创大通胀以来新低 资 料 来 源 ： M A C R O B O N D 、 招 商 银 行 研 究 院 一是就业市场降温，"劳工荒"缓解，薪资通胀持续弱化。 3月美国职位空缺率降至4.3%，为本轮"劳工荒"以来 最低值，2-4月服务业时薪环比增速连续3个月稳定在0.2%，驱动4月服务业时薪同比增速回落至3.6%，非房服 务通胀回落至3.1%。 4月美国CPI通胀数据低于市场预期。CPI同比增速降速至2.3%（市场预期2.4%）；环比增长0.2%（市场预期 0.3%）；核心CPI同比增速维持在2.8% ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have led to significant reductions in bilateral tariffs, which is expected to positively impact both economies and financial markets [2][6][10]. Group 1: Bilateral Tariffs - The U.S. has reduced additional tariffs on Chinese goods to 10% and plans to suspend 24% of tariffs for 90 days after the "liberation day," resulting in an average tariff reduction from 125% to 10% [2]. - China will cancel 91% of its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, retaining only 10% and suspending 24% of its countermeasures for 90 days [2][7]. - The average U.S. tariff on Chinese goods is expected to decrease from 42.7% to 22.7% as cooperation on the fentanyl issue progresses [2][7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The reduction in tariffs is projected to significantly lessen the negative impact on U.S.-China trade, with an estimated 16% decline in China's exports to the U.S. from May to December 2025 [8]. - The overall export growth for China to the U.S. is expected to decline by 11.7% for the year, with potential losses in export value ranging from $200 billion to $300 billion [8]. - The easing of tariffs is anticipated to reduce the adverse effects on domestic demand, manufacturing investment, and employment, although certain sectors heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. may still face challenges [8][9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The adjustment in tariff policies has improved market sentiment, leading to a recovery in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with expectations of a more stable market environment [10]. - The bond market has reacted to the positive news, with long-term interest rates rising, while short-term rates remain strong, indicating a potential opportunity for bond market positioning [11]. - U.S. stock markets are likely to experience a positive trend due to reduced trade tensions, although concerns over lingering tariff risks and high interest rates may limit upward movement [12]. Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The decline in tariffs is expected to bolster market risk appetite, leading to a potential appreciation of the RMB in the short term, while the USD may face mixed pressures depending on future tariff developments [13]. - Gold prices may experience short-term volatility due to increased risk appetite, but long-term uncertainties surrounding U.S. economic conditions and monetary policy could support a rebound in gold prices [13].

海外策略：美国经济平稳，美联储按兵不动 美国经济趋势上保持平稳，未来可能受到中美贸易谈判超预期支撑。 一是经济稳步扩张。 亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW模型预测Q2实际GDP年化增速达到2.3%，延续了Q1的平稳增长态势，其中私人消费增速达到3.3%， 剔除库存后的私人投资增速达到3.6%，结构上仅地产及建筑投资在长端利率上行压制下小幅萎缩，其余分项 均在扩张。 二是就业依然稳健。 4月美国新增非农就业人数（17.7万）超出市场预期，失业率稳定在4.2%，已 于4.0-4.2%区间震荡一年之久，周频首次申领失业金人数22.8万，较前值回落1.3万。值得注意的是，当前职位 空缺率（4.3%）已经降至本轮周期最低点，随着空缺职位的消耗，失业率可能向上突破前期箱体。中美贸易 谈判进展超预期，叠加"硬数据"持续给力，美国经济或已在预期层面越过谷底。 美联储于5月议息会议按兵不动，且未提供任何前瞻指引，继续强调政策路径将取决于未来形势。市场对美联 储降息的预期持续降温，年内降息预期收敛至3次合计75bp，首次降息时点7月。考虑到失业率的潜在上行趋 势，以及长端利率的震荡区间，我们认为当前市场预期基本理性。 由于美国经济、就 ...

Macro Economic Analysis - The Chinese economy showed better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, indicating a strong start to the year [1] - Policy measures are supporting commodity inflation, as reflected in the March price data [1] Trade Data Insights - The "export rush" is nearing its end, as indicated by the March import and export data [2] - The U.S. CPI inflation data for March reflects a brief period of calm in the overseas macroeconomic environment [2] Capital Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a strong and volatile phase, suggesting opportunities for long-term bond fund investments [3] - U.S. tech stocks have faced significant setbacks, raising questions about the market's bottom [3] - Tariff pressures are causing dramatic fluctuations in both stock and bond markets [3] Industry Analysis - The pharmaceutical industry is accelerating its digital transformation, with AI technology playing a crucial role in this new journey [5] - Positive policy measures are contributing to stability in the A-share market [5] - Tariff expectations are being driven by policy responses, highlighting the need to monitor these developments [5] - Market volatility continues as the impact of tariffs temporarily eases [5] Weekly Outlook - Recent tariff measures have exceeded expectations, leading to a significant rise in risk-averse sentiment [6]

Group 1: CPI Inflation - The CPI inflation for April is -0.1% year-on-year, which is in line with the previous value and higher than market expectations of -0.3% [1] - Core CPI inflation remains stable, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while year-on-year it holds steady at 0.5% [8] - Food prices have turned from decline to increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year decline narrowing by 1.2 percentage points to 0.2% [5][6] Group 2: PPI Inflation - The PPI inflation for April is -2.7% year-on-year, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and -0.4% month-on-month, which is weaker than the historical average since 2017 [12] - The decline in PPI inflation is primarily due to tariff impacts, with energy prices being suppressed and some industries facing export obstacles [15] - New momentum industries show resilience, with prices in sectors like computer and electronic equipment manufacturing improving [15] Group 3: Forward Outlook - Looking ahead, the implementation of a package of financial policies on May 7 is expected to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market, potentially leading to a stabilization and gradual recovery of core CPI inflation [11] - The PPI inflation is projected to face downward pressure due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, but the recent financial policies may alleviate some of this pressure [20] - The expected CPI inflation midpoint for Q2 is around 0.2%, while the annual midpoint is projected at 0.4%; for PPI, the Q2 midpoint may drop to around -2.5%, with an annual midpoint of -2.4% [21]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the report is the confidence in achieving economic goals despite external uncertainties, emphasizing the need for effective policies to support the real economy and address challenges posed by external factors [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Situation Assessment - The report expresses confidence in achieving this year's economic and social development goals, citing three supporting factors: rapid growth of new drivers, steady recovery of market demand, and solid economic fundamentals [1]. - It highlights the challenges posed by external economic conditions, including tariff impacts and insufficient internal demand, while urging a focus on development confidence and effective policy responses [1]. Group 2: Policy Stance - The monetary policy maintains an "appropriate easing" tone, upgrading the balance framework to four dimensions, including support for the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system [5]. - The report emphasizes the need for macro policy coordination and highlights the sustainability of China's government debt expansion, suggesting that fiscal policy may further strengthen to support investment and consumption [5][8]. Group 3: Inflation and Price Control - The report acknowledges the current low inflation environment, with CPI and PPI remaining at low levels, and expresses a positive outlook for price recovery [2][3]. - It outlines the constraints on demand and supply that affect price levels, advocating for measures to expand effective demand and improve the supply-demand cycle [2]. Group 4: Interest Rate Policy - The report calls for enhancing the pricing capabilities of financial institutions and maintaining market competition, with a focus on reducing overall financing costs for enterprises [12]. - It highlights the importance of transparency in loan costs, indicating that the average interest rate for new loans was approximately 3.3%, which is historically low [12][14]. Group 5: Financial Market Development - The report emphasizes the need to enhance the bond market's functionality and manage interest rate risks, proposing the introduction of a "technology board" for bond issuance to support innovation [16]. - It notes the significant size of China's bond market, which reached 177 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, while also addressing the risks associated with short-term yield fluctuations [16].

图1：4月进出口表现好于市场预期 4月我国进出口金额同比增速表现好于市场预期，出口增速下滑但仍保持较快增长，进口降幅收窄，贸易顺差 大幅扩张。 按美元计价，进出口总金额5,352亿美元，同比增长4.6%。其中，出口3,156.9亿美元，同比 8.1%（3月12.4%，市场预期0.7%）；进口2,195.1亿美元，同比-0.2%（3月-4.3%，市场预期-6.9%）；贸易顺差 961.8亿美元，同比扩张241.9亿美元（+33.6%）。4月外需下行压力初步显现，重点港口货物和集装箱吞吐量 先下降后回升，出口集装箱运价指数环比下滑4.5%。 分地区看， 相较3月，我国对美国以及非美地区出口增速表现明显分化。4月对美出口增速大幅下降30.1pct 至-21.0%，对非美地区出口增速上行0.1pct至13.0%。非美地区中，对新兴市场如东盟出口增速大幅上行9.2pct 至20.8%，对拉美（17.3%）、非洲（25.3%）出口增速下行但保持较高增速。对欧盟增速下行2.0pct至8.3%， 对日本（7.8%）、 中国台湾地区（15.5%）出口增速提升。随着中美贸易摩擦冲击进一步显现，我国对美和对 非美地区出口表现或继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.50% and is facing a decision-making dilemma between combating inflation and stabilizing employment, with potential for 1-3 rate cuts within the year totaling 25-75 basis points [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance - The U.S. economy is currently in a solid expansion phase, with low unemployment rates and a robust job market [3][5]. - Inflation remains somewhat elevated, and the Federal Reserve is committed to achieving maximum employment and restoring inflation to 2% [3][5]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve has decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% and will closely monitor economic indicators, including labor market conditions and inflation pressures, to determine future policy adjustments [3][5]. - The Fed is cautious about the risks associated with its dual mandate of employment and inflation, acknowledging that both unemployment and inflation risks have risen [5][6]. Group 3: Market Strategy - The recommendation is to maintain a strategy of buying long-duration U.S. Treasuries on dips and shorting the dollar on rallies [2][8]. - The market is currently neutral, with expectations for rate cuts being tempered, and the probability of a June rate cut has decreased to around 20% [7][8].

2025年5月7日，中国人民银行、国家金监总局和中国证监会联合发布一揽子金融政策，旨在缓冲外部贸易环境 变化，稳定市场预期、支持实体经济，通过降准、降息及结构性货币政策工具等措施提振楼市和股市信心。从 房地产市场运行来看，销售量价在去年"926"首提"止跌回稳"后出现一定修复，但进入4月后"止跌"迹象逐渐减 弱，主要表现为新房成交相较去年同比转负，二手房成交同比放缓，热点城市的市场热度也有所下降。显 示"926"一揽子政策对房地产市场的效果消退。叠加中美贸易战扰动，居民信心走弱，房地产政策升级的必要 性明显提升。 本次发布的一揽子金融政策中，房地产直接相关的主要有三：一是下调政策利率10bp及公积金贷款利率25bp， 二是下调结构性货币政策工具利率25bp，三是加快房地产新模式融资制度出台，从长短期两方面对房地产进行 稳市场托底和基础性制度改革。后续还可关注今年"两会"提出的政府收储政策优化，跟进房地产供给端去库存 的落地进展和规模；关注城中村、城市更新政策升级及"房票"制度探索；关注北上深调控政策放松及"好房 子"项目供给。 一、市场表现：4月以来新房与二手房市场热度超季节性回落 与去年"926"新政后新房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, expanding domestic demand, promoting technological innovation, and supporting enterprises, with coordinated efforts from monetary policy, financial regulation, and capital market policies [1][2]. Policy Overview: Comprehensive Financial Policy Efforts - The monetary policy includes ten measures across three categories, such as a comprehensive reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, aimed at maintaining liquidity and supporting consumption and innovation [2][3]. - Financial regulatory policies focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets, supporting enterprises, and enhancing financial supervision to promote the development of new productive forces [4]. - Capital market policies consist of six measures designed to ensure market stability and resilience, with a commitment to supporting the capital market's long-term health [5]. Policy Characteristics: Strengthening Counter-Cyclical Adjustments - The necessity for extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments has increased due to external challenges, such as the "reciprocal tariffs" announced by the Trump administration, which exceeded market expectations [6]. - The central government's recent meeting emphasized the need for timely implementation of established policies and the introduction of incremental reserve policies to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments [6]. Monetary Policy: Moderate Total and Loose Structure - The monetary policy measures reflect a "moderately loose" stance, with timely and appropriate reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, aimed at maintaining liquidity and supporting key sectors [7][8]. - Structural tools are designed to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, and foreign trade, with significant funding allocated to these initiatives [10]. Financial Regulatory Policies: Supporting Asset Prices and High-Quality Development - The focus on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets is crucial for maintaining expectations and promoting domestic demand [11]. - Regulatory measures include enhancing financing stability for real estate and increasing support for small and private enterprises, as well as optimizing the financial environment for foreign trade [12]. Capital Market Policies: Stabilizing the Stock Market and Promoting Innovation - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will collaborate with various financial institutions to maintain market activity and stability, with a focus on supporting technological innovation and enhancing the capital market's openness [13]. - The policies aim to create a virtuous cycle of returns, funding, and market stability, while also addressing the impacts of external tariff policies on listed companies [13]. Market Impact: Positive Trends in Stocks and Bonds, Stable Currency - The policies are expected to provide strong support for the A-share market, with a focus on stabilizing the market and expectations amid external uncertainties [14]. - The technology sector is identified as the primary beneficiary of the policies, receiving comprehensive support across various financial instruments [15]. - The bond market is anticipated to experience mixed performance, with short-term bonds benefiting from lower funding costs due to interest rate cuts [17]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, influenced by ongoing US-China trade negotiations and domestic monetary policy adjustments [18].