Core Viewpoint - In May, China's import and export growth rates declined due to tariff impacts, with exports slowing and imports decreasing significantly, while trade surplus expanded substantially [1][4]. Exports: Tariff Impact and Declining Growth - In May, export value grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a further slowdown of 3.3 percentage points from April, primarily due to a significant drop in exports to the U.S. [5] - The U.S. import demand weakened significantly, influenced by frequent adjustments in U.S. tariff policies and increased operational costs due to trade uncertainties [5] - Exports to non-U.S. regions, such as Europe (12%), ASEAN (14.8%), and Africa (33.3%), maintained strong growth, although the momentum may slow down in the future [5][8]. Import: Widening Decline - In May, the import value decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, a widening decline of 3.2 percentage points [14] - Imports from the U.S. fell by 18.1%, with the decline expanding by 4.3 percentage points compared to April, reflecting weak domestic demand [14] - Despite a significant decrease in imports from the U.S., imports from the EU showed a slight recovery, indicating a potential substitution effect [14]. Outlook: Export Pressure in the Second Half - Export growth is expected to further slow down in the second half of the year, with the average tariff rate on Chinese goods in the U.S. remaining high at 41.2% [17] - The ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Southeast Asia may disrupt China's foreign investment pace and affect exports through multinational supply chains [17].

海外策略：稳步扩张 美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，美联储年内降息预期维持在2次（约50bp），降息终点预期维持在3.5%。 上周亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速较前值回落0.8pct至3.8%，前期长端利率上 行的紧缩效应再度显现。个人消费增速降至2.6%，商品（3.3%）与服务（2.3%）均在放缓；私人投资（不含 库存）增速降至1.6%，主要来自地产（-0.9%）及建筑（-3.0%）分项的拖累。 失业率仍在上行，但斜率极缓。 周频首次申领失业金人数上行至24.7万，符合季节性水平。5月失业率较4月上 行0.05pct至4.24%，连续第3个月维持在4.2%左右。 市场对通胀的担忧亦在缓和。 Truflation日频通胀指数降至 1.84%，较前期高点回落26bp。 财政延续了"言语收缩，行为扩张"的基调。 尽管一直在进行各种缩减赤字的表态及尝试，但实际上财政赤字 仍在扩张。周频财政赤字额达到$1,275亿，继续超出季节性水平。2025财年美国赤字水平将继续处于高位。 基于货币政策"双目标"及经济、财政形势推演，美联储并无大幅调整政策的动机，我们维持年内降息不超2次 （50bp）判断， ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market continues to show signs of normalization, with the unemployment rate gradually rising, influenced by both long-term and short-term factors. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance on interest rates, with limited room for rate cuts in the near future [1][14]. Group 1: Employment Data - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding market expectations of 126,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.4% [1][17]. - The average hourly wage growth year-on-year was 3.9%, surpassing the expected 3.7% [1][17]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate Trends - The unemployment rate has been gradually increasing, rising by 5 basis points to 4.24% in May, maintaining around 4.2% for the past quarter [2][3]. - The three-month moving average of job vacancies was recorded at 4.4%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than the mid-2024 average [6]. Group 3: Short-term Influences - Consumer sentiment has improved, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index showing signs of recovery, indicating that the impact of tariffs on consumer sentiment is easing [8][9]. - The financial situation of U.S. households has improved, supported by fiscal expansion, leading to a decrease in employment willingness and an increase in hiring demand [8][10]. Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is experiencing tightening supply and demand dynamics, with a slight rebound in the job vacancy ratio to 1.03 in April. The average hourly wage growth increased by 0.2 percentage points to 0.4% in May [14]. - The forecast suggests that the unemployment rate may continue to rise gradually, expected to fluctuate between 4.2% and 4.6% throughout the year [14]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Following the stronger-than-expected employment data, U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities rose significantly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 11.6 basis points to 4.04% [15]. - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.45% to 99.19, while major U.S. stock indices all posted gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.03% [15]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - The company has adjusted its long-term positioning for 10-year Treasuries to 4.6% and for 5-year Treasuries to 4.15%, maintaining a long-term bearish outlook on the dollar [16]. - The expectation is that any technical rebounds in the dollar will present selling opportunities, as the long-term downtrend in the dollar is anticipated to continue [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of monitoring bank interest margins while maintaining a balanced approach in monetary policy execution [3] - The report highlights the resilience of the real economy in China, indicating a positive outlook despite external challenges [4] - It discusses the impact of tariffs on domestic prices and the potential for a rebound in exports as tariff pressures ease [5] Group 2 - The analysis of the U.S. CPI inflation data reveals that internal inflationary pressures are moderating, which may influence future Federal Reserve decisions [4] - The U.S. unemployment rate is facing upward pressure, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [4] - The report suggests that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields presents opportunities for strategic allocation in fixed income products [4][5]

Economic Overview - The US economy is maintaining a steady expansion, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations converging to two times (approximately 50 basis points), and the terminal rate expectation raised to 3.5% [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a sharp increase in the annualized growth rate of US real GDP to 4.6% in Q2, driven by a reversal in "import grabbing," with personal consumption (PCE) growth reaching 4.0% [2] - Private investment (excluding inventory) growth is at 4.4%, primarily supported by equipment (8.8%) and intellectual property (5.5%) contributions [2] - The job market remains robust, with unemployment levels stable, and initial jobless claims rising to 240,000, aligning with seasonal levels [2] Inflation and Fiscal Policy - Market concerns about inflation are easing, with the Truflation daily inflation index dropping to 1.84%, down 26 basis points from previous highs [3] - Despite ongoing rhetoric about deficit reduction, the fiscal deficit continues to expand, with weekly fiscal deficit reaching $127.5 billion, exceeding seasonal levels [3] - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to make significant policy adjustments, with expectations of a "hawkish rate cut" that emphasizes returning rates to neutral levels without indicating future policy trends [3] Overseas Strategy - Market risk appetite improved due to the suspension of Trump’s tariffs, leading to rebounds in US Treasury yields and the dollar, while gold prices fell [4] - The US stock market saw gains influenced by tariff policy changes, with corporate earnings showing resilience against economic fluctuations [4] - However, deep-rooted trade tensions remain unresolved, limiting upward potential for US stock valuations [4] Chinese Economic Insights - In April, industrial profits for large-scale industrial enterprises grew by 3.0% year-on-year, with industrial added value increasing by 6.1% [8] - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5% in May, indicating improved production and new orders [9] - Real estate transactions are entering a low season, with new home sales declining by 4.1% in May, although the decline is narrowing compared to April [9] External Demand and Trade - "Export grabbing" remains active but is losing momentum, with container shipping rates showing mixed trends across different routes [10] - The US Treasury Secretary indicated that trade negotiations between China and the US are temporarily stalled, suggesting ongoing trade tensions may impact China's foreign trade [11] Chinese Strategy: Stock and Bond Market - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with short-term funding and sentiment driving volatility [12] - The A-share market showed resilience despite a slight decline, with limited catalysts for significant movement in the near term [12] - In the context of risk appetite, funds are shifting towards stable dividend sectors, while consumer sectors are relatively weaker [13]

大类资产配置建议表 经济："美强欧弱"的回归 美国经济延续韧性，欧日经济转向逆风。 美国方面，市场"衰退之虞"基本消散，美国经济展现了依然强劲的 内生动能。美联储于5月议息会议继续强调"反应型"政策立场，将密切关注关税对通胀的影响；欧洲方面，经 济依然疲弱，通胀持续软化，欧央行大概率继续降息。日本方面，尽管经济已在显著减速，但通胀水平仍能支 持日央行继续加息，存在"滞胀"风险。 （一）美国经济：稳步扩张，担忧暂缓 美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，市场对衰退的担忧显著缓解。 美国经济保持稳步扩张状态。 亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型二季度年化增速预测值达到2.2%，实现转正，很大 程度来自"抢进口"退潮导致的贸易逆差收敛。随着特朗普新政冲击的退坡，美国经济展现了依然强劲的内生动 能，"衰退之虞"或再度被击退。 | | 大类资产 | 月度趋势 | | | 配置建议(未来6个月) | | | 配置变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 高配 | 中高配 | 标配 | 中低配 | 低配 | | | | 美元 | 偏弱震荡 | | ...

Group 1: Overseas Economy - The US economy is maintaining a steady expansion, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations converging to two times (approximately 50 basis points) for the year [2][3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a 2.4% annualized growth rate for US real GDP in Q2, driven by personal consumption (PCE) growth of 3.6% and private investment growth of 2.7%, while real estate and construction are contracting due to high interest rates [2] - The job market remains robust, with initial jobless claims falling to 227,000, indicating a low unemployment level [2] - Inflation effects from tariffs are manageable, with a 2% increase in import prices noted, and inflation is expected to stabilize around 3% in the second half of the year [2] - The "Beautiful Act" is progressing well, but the US fiscal deficit is significantly high, reaching $91.9 billion weekly, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges [2] Group 2: Overseas Strategy - Global market concerns have risen due to US debt rating downgrades and trade tensions, leading to increased US bond yields and a weaker dollar [4] - The S&P 500 index saw a 13% year-on-year EPS growth in Q1, exceeding market expectations, indicating resilience in US corporate earnings despite macroeconomic weaknesses [4] - The ongoing easing of inflation pressures provides the Federal Reserve with more policy maneuvering space, suggesting a potential new upward trend for US stocks [4] - Short-term US bond yields may face upward pressure, while a strategy focusing on medium to short-duration bonds is recommended [6] - The Chinese yuan may experience short-term pressure due to seasonal currency purchase demands, but overall stability is expected [6] Group 3: Chinese Economy - Domestic demand shows stability in car purchases, while real estate transactions are cooling, with new home sales in major cities declining by 5.7% year-on-year [7] - Export activities are accelerating as US importers rush to procure goods before tariff exemptions expire, with a 21.5% increase in container throughput at the Port of Los Angeles [7] - Fiscal revenue improved in April, with tax revenue growing by 1.9% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth this year [8] - Land transfer income also saw a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, indicating a recovery in the real estate market, although pressures remain [8] Group 4: Chinese Strategy - The bond market is experiencing slight adjustments, with a recommendation to focus on medium to short-duration bonds due to better risk-return profiles [11] - The A-share market is facing pressure from declining M1 and medium to long-term loan growth, indicating potential volatility [12] - The Hong Kong stock market is showing similar trends to the A-share market, with a focus on high-quality companies and stable dividend-paying stocks [12]

一、美债利率上行的原因 美东时间5月21日，美债利率全线上升，10年期美债利率突破4.6%，30年期美债利率突破5.0%，我们对此点评 如下： 第一，20年期美债拍卖结果较差，这是利率上行的导火索。 20年期美债最终得标利率为5.05%，相较4月高出 约20BP，也是自2023年11月以来首次突破5.0%整数大关，投标倍数同样出现了明显下滑。 第四，美国经济硬数据稳健，市场对通胀存在担忧，叠加美联储在降息问题上维持定力，基本面和货币政策对 利率偏空。 二、美债策略展望：短期波动不改震荡趋势，配置中短久期美债，回避长债 短期来看，上述利空因素可能将继续发酵，利率存在进一步冲高的风险，但美国评级下调等因素偏短期，影响 预计难以持久，同时美国经济在关税和通胀背景下仍有压力，认为美债利率不具备持续大幅上行的条件，维持 利率宽幅震荡的观点不变。考虑到美债票息收益可观，仍值得配置，建议维持中短久期美债的配置，以票息策 略为主，长久期债券建议回避，若10Y国债利率上升至4.7%-5%区间，可能是一个较好的配置窗口。 -END- 本期作者 陈峤 资本市场研究员 chenqiao426 @cmbch ina .com 刘东亮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and outlook of fixed income products and the bond market, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic factors and policy changes on investment strategies and opportunities [1][34]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Products - Recent performance of fixed income products shows that rights-embedded bond funds outperformed short-term bond funds and high-grade interbank certificates of deposit index funds in the past month, with returns of 0.62%, 0.19%, and 0.18% respectively [3][8]. - Cash management products yielded a return of 0.11%, indicating a stable but declining trend in cash product yields, which may approach 1% in the long term [1][38]. Bond Market Review - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with short-term rates stabilizing and long-term rates rising. The 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.68%, while the 1-year government bond yield rose to 1.45% [10][16]. - The easing of US-China tariffs has improved market risk appetite, leading to a slight market correction [10][30]. Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate a weak fluctuation in the bond market, with a potential for small adjustments. However, the long-term downtrend in interest rates remains intact, suggesting opportunities for investors to capitalize on market corrections [29][36]. - The 1-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate is expected to stabilize between 1.6% and 1.8% [29][30]. Investment Strategies - For investors focused on liquidity management, maintaining cash products and considering low-volatility financial products or short-term bond funds is recommended [38]. - For conservative investors, holding pure bond products and gradually increasing duration exposure is advisable, especially as the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7%-1.8% [39]. - For more aggressive investors, fixed income plus products that include convertible bonds and equity assets may present opportunities, with a focus on defensive convertible bond products over aggressive ones [40]. Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued a plan to promote high-quality development in the public fund industry, emphasizing a shift from scale to return, and from short-term to long-term investment strategies [34].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the stable growth of China's economy in April, highlighting the resilience of external demand and the transition of new and old growth drivers, despite challenges such as declining real estate investment and low inflation pressures [6][21]. Supply Side: Stable Growth, Slowing Momentum - In April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.2%, but down 1.6 percentage points from March [7] - The service production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, slightly down from March [7] - High-tech industries maintained robust growth, with production increasing by 10.0%, while equipment manufacturing grew by 9.8% [7] Fixed Asset Investment: Slowing Growth, Real Estate Drag - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% year-to-date, slightly down from the previous value [10] - Infrastructure investment increased by 10.9%, while real estate investment saw a decline of 10.3%, worsening by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value [10][11] - Manufacturing investment growth slowed to 8.2%, influenced by tariff impacts and reduced willingness to invest among enterprises [16] Consumption: High Levels with Notable Highlights - Retail sales growth in April was 5.1%, slightly below the market expectation of 5.5% [19] - Significant growth was observed in categories such as communication equipment and home appliances, with increases of 20-30% [19] - The consumption of gold and jewelry surged by 25.3%, driven by high gold prices [19] Outlook: Consolidating Foundations, Maintaining Stability - The article anticipates that tariff negotiations will yield positive outcomes, improving the economic environment and supporting the goal of achieving a 5% growth rate [21] - The article suggests that while external demand remains stable, inflation may continue to be low, and the real estate market may remain weak [21]