以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 所以，主动公募向业绩比较基准靠拢，符合海外经验，可能是A股市场和公募行业发展的最终 状态。短期，市场博弈公募持仓向业绩比较基准靠拢，更偏向于是资金博弈主题，需严守性价 比，把握好节奏。 短期宏观预期难有方向性变化，行业结构也缺乏突破方向，我们维持二季度是中枢偏高震荡市 的判断。中美日内瓦经贸联合声明后，中国外需预期修复，支持A股向上挑战震荡区间上限。 但2025年供给增速中枢仍偏高，2025年内A股供需格局难有向上拐点的预期不变。中期A股基 本面节奏预期并未根本变化，暂不足以支持A股向上突破。 同时，二季度经济基本面有望脉冲式改善。中美经贸关系缓和，二季度从"抢转口"到"抢出 口"，外需从初步显现下行压力，到可能脉冲式上行。尽管基本面改善尚无法外推，但短期数 据验证有望保持强势，至少排除了下行风险。5月政策兑现成为主要矛盾阶段，宽货币及时全 面兑现。平准基金有力支撑资本市场预期，A股市场下行风险同样可控。 结构上，科技、消费、医药是A股一季报高景气的主要方向。二季度外需脉冲式改善，政策对 冲受益的消费短期基本面弹性受限。科技需要新产业趋势催化， ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the fundamental outlook is expected to improve in a pulse-like manner, supported by the stabilization of capital market expectations through the balanced fund [2] - The market is currently engaged in a game where public fund holdings are aligning with performance benchmarks, indicating a focus on thematic investments [2] - Global risk appetite is rising due to easing geopolitical tensions, as indicated by positive movements in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 [3] Group 2 - The demand is showing slight recovery, but asset turnover rates are declining, which is negatively impacting profitability [6] - The future rhythm of the industry remains unchanged, with key catalysts for the domestic AI industry still pending [7] - The article suggests a focus on consumer sectors such as air conditioning, white goods, liquor, education publishing, traditional Chinese medicine, dairy products, and non-sports apparel [20]

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者全球资产配置团队 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 人民币国际化的进程、前景与机遇 ——全球货币体系重构与人民币国际化系列之一 金倩婧/冯晓宇/林遵东/涂锦文/王胜 本期投资提示： 2025年以来，为了解决美国面临的双赤字问题，特朗普上台后一系列政策极大增加了全球经 济、贸易、金融市场的不确定性。与此同时，全球投资者持有美元资产的意愿下降，特别是以 安全属性为主的美债被抛售，黄金受到青睐。对于全球投资者而言，无论是官方还是私人部 门，资产多元化将是趋势。另一方面，当前中国在全球经贸当中的参与权重，意味着人民币国 际化将不断深化。自2022年以来的人民币国际化展现出多维度深化、结构性优化与机制性建设 协同推进的鲜明特征，尽管在资本项目有序开放、金融市场体系建设等方面挑战犹存，但人民 币在全球货币体系中的实际地位和影响力无疑已迈上新台阶，正为中国建设金融强国的战略目 标提供日益重要的支撑。 从发展历程来看，人民币国际化经历了政策出击市场需求扩张高水平开放金融市场的三个阶 段：1）政策驱动 ：2009年我国开放人民币跨境贸易和直接投资的结算试点，2011年推广至全 国，人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to remain in a high central oscillation phase in Q2, with external demand pressures not yet evident but still a concern for the future. The market's ability to fully break through is limited due to insufficient time to digest fundamental expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The A-share market is characterized as a high central oscillation phase, with fundamental factors indicating an upward ceiling. The key variable affecting the fundamentals is the impact of Trump's tariffs, with expectations of policy adjustments and negotiations between China and the U.S. [2]. - The supply side shows a high visibility of significant supply clearance, but the absolute level remains high, making it difficult for supply-demand dynamics to improve within 2025 [2]. - The financial policy's comprehensive and consistent implementation is expected to stabilize market expectations and maintain market activity, despite the potential for downward pressure [3]. Group 2: Policy and Liquidity Factors - Recent financial policy announcements are expected to exceed market expectations in terms of their comprehensive and consistent implementation, which is crucial for stabilizing capital market expectations [2][3]. - The current market phase is marked by a verification period for policy layout and performance, with the execution of growth-stabilizing policies becoming a primary concern for the capital market [3]. Group 3: Public Fund Trends - The long-term trends in public fund product structure adjustments include a strengthened trend towards passive equity products, with three resonances: investor demand, policy encouragement, and the weakening of active fund incentives [4]. - There is an expected increase in strategic investments in low-volatility and asset allocation products, which are encouraged by management to attract long-term capital into the market [4][5]. - Public funds are likely to increase their willingness to allocate to clearly undervalued sectors, with typical low-allocation sectors identified as banking, non-bank financials, public utilities, and transportation [5]. Group 4: Sector Performance and Opportunities - Short-term and long-term structural directions favor technology, with the first quarter showing strong performance in consumption, pharmaceuticals, and technology sectors [8]. - The domestic AI industry and embodied intelligence are highlighted as investment opportunities, with a focus on the robotics sector showing better micro-structural performance compared to AI [8]. - The market is expected to maintain oscillation in Q2-Q3, with both technology and consumption sectors needing to capitalize on wave opportunities [8]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Earnings - The expansion of the profit-making effect is observed across various sectors, with banking, public utilities, and international military industries showing significant growth [12]. - The sentiment indicators suggest a continued expansion in the market, with low valuation and high dividend sectors experiencing increased profitability [9][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a smooth price circulation and transmission mechanism to enhance the efficiency of the national unified market, highlighting the need for targeted reforms to address the current low price phenomenon in China [1][2][3]. Price Formation and Transmission Mechanism - Over the past decade, China has made significant progress in price reform, with 97.5% of goods and services prices determined by the market. However, a rare phenomenon of continuously low prices has emerged, with the CPI index hovering around 1% since March 2023, negatively impacting economic growth and consumer vitality [3][4][5]. - The current price transmission mechanism is hindered by the digital economy's impact, the inadequacy of market pricing in the service sector, and excessive price competition in online sales, leading to a decline in overall price levels [2][6][11]. Digital Economy and Cost Reduction - The digital economy has significantly reduced costs across various sectors, enhancing efficiency in manufacturing and service industries. For instance, logistics costs as a percentage of GDP have decreased from 18% in 2012 to 14.1% in 2024 [7][8]. - However, the costs associated with innovative factors such as technology and digitalization are not effectively reflected in the current pricing system, contributing to the overall decline in price levels [10][18]. Service Sector Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanisms for social services and public utilities have not fully transitioned to market-based systems, with significant portions of the CPI basket being influenced by these sectors. The weight of social services in the CPI has reached 25% in 2024 [11][12][19]. - The lack of market-driven pricing in education, healthcare, and public utilities limits the ability to reflect supply and demand changes, impacting overall price dynamics [11][12]. Online Sales and Price Competition - The rise of online sales, particularly through e-commerce and live streaming, has led to a competitive environment characterized by absolute low-price strategies, resulting in price "involution" where prices fall below cost for many products [13][14][21]. - The complexity of online sales pricing and the lack of clear regulatory standards have disrupted traditional price supervision mechanisms, complicating the management of price order in the market [14][24]. Recommendations for Reform - To reverse the low price expectations, it is essential to enhance the price transmission mechanism in the digital economy, regulate online sales, and improve price supervision mechanisms through targeted reforms [15][16][20]. - The article suggests accelerating the marketization of pricing mechanisms in social services and public utilities, promoting competition, and ensuring that pricing reflects supply and demand dynamics [19][20][21].

杨成长 龚 芳 邹 威 区域市场是组成全国统一大市场的基本单元，区域循环通过打破地理边界与行政藩篱，借 助基础设施的互联互通、跨区域规则的互认以及市场标准的衔接来推动要素自由流动和产业分 工协作，从而降低市场交易成本，畅通国内大循环 进一步消除各类区域隐形壁垒，完善对地方政府政绩的考核方式，引导区域之间形成良性 竞争生态 以城市群为载体，加快形成城市群内跨行政区域的常态化监管协调机制，着力解决区域基 础设施建设标准不一致的难题，以基础设施的高效连通推进区域一体化发展迈上新台阶 加快构建和完善不同区域间的利益补偿机制，缩小区域差异，推进区域协调平衡发展 消除区域壁垒、畅通区域循环是激发区域市场活力和推进全国统一大市场建设的重要内 容。 畅通区域循环包含区域良性竞争、区域有效合作和区域差异化发展三个层次的内涵，良性 的区域竞争是激发区域主体发展活力的重要抓手，区域之间的有效合作是实现区域互联互通的 有效举措，引导区域发掘差异化比较优势是实现区域协调发展的关键所在。在畅通国民经济循 环和新型产业循环的基础上，本文从地理视角出发，重点聚焦区域发展中的隐形壁垒、无效内 卷及协调发展难题，为推进全国统一大市场建设，全面释 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者全球资产配置团队 本期投资提示： 全球资产价格回顾：本周（20250419-20250426）特朗普多次发言表明希望缓和与中国的贸易关系。对于市场而言，关税不确定性最大的阶段基本 已经过去，市场风险偏好企稳反弹。叠加美股多支重要科技股业绩超预期，本周纳斯达克指数反弹明显，全球股市情绪明显转暖。1）利率方面， 美十年国债收益率下13 BPs来到4.29%，美元指数上行到99.6。 2）权益方面， 关税不确定性降温提升市场风险偏好。此外，美国重要科技股业绩 亮眼，如谷歌云业务利润21.8亿美元，大幅高于分析师预期的19.4亿美元，此外公布了700亿美元的股票回购计划。本周纳斯达克反弹明显。具体 地，标普500(4.59%)＞发达市场(4.10%)>日经225(2.81%)>新兴市场(2.67%)>沪深300(0.38%)。 3）商品方面， 黄金冲高回落，整体下跌0.33%，布伦 特原油价格下跌2.98%。 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 关税担忧边际降温，全球市场情绪修复明显 全球资金层面：美国固收类基金持续流出，发达欧洲股市资金大幅流入。全球资金层面：1)国家与地区层 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 一、A股政策预期保持稳定的三个条件：1. 增量政策布局的保留空间。2. 存量政策加速落地执行。3. 政府债券发行加速，为三季度稳增长储备资 源。4月政治局会议存量政策"用好用足"，增量政策"备足预案"，资本市场"稳定"基础上还要"活跃"，全面覆盖市场期待。政策关键验证期，A 股预期将保持稳定。 此前，我们讨论了二季度A股政策预期保持基本稳定的三个必要条件：1. 对股价而言，后续政策空间比已落地的政策更加重要，保留增量政策布 局的空间是市场预期稳定的首要条件。2. 存量政策加速落地，特别是消费增量刺激，以及重点项目要落实到基建产业链中微观改善上。3. 三季度 稳增长压力可能大于二季度，同时从政府债券发行到落实实物量有一定滞后。所以，市场期待二季度专项债和特别国债发行放量，为三季度稳增 长进一步发力做好准备。 4月25日政治局会议召开，政策布局基本覆盖了上述三个条件，全面契合市场期待。政策关键验证期，A股预期能够保持基本稳定。这里我们具 体讨论5个政策要点： 1. 存量政策"用好用足"。 针对关税冲击压力，会议强调"加紧实施 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 目录 一周回顾 用好用足"，增量政策"备足预案"，资本市场"稳定"基础上还要"活跃"，全面覆盖市场期待。政策关键验证期，A股预期将保持稳定。 易因素。基准假设是，特朗普政策调整缓慢且渐进，美股承压，A股基本面预期和风险偏好恢复有上限。 段性修复；高股息投资重新向港股聚焦。中期展望向"结构牛，全面牛"回归，二季度本就是"结构牛"的调整期，A股消化基本面压力"幅度充分，时间不足"，维持二季度震荡市判断。 历史15%分位以下的行业：保险、小金属、交通运输（航运港口）、电池、 农林牧渔 、医疗服务。 支重要科技股业绩超预期，本周纳斯达克指数反弹明显，全球股市情绪明显转暖。 专题研究 所减仓。2）大众消费品和地产产业链明显低配。3）周期中有色金属大幅加仓。4）腾讯控股首次取代宁德时代成为公募基金重仓规模第一大个股。 0 美元/盎司。短期调整后，未来黄金价格是否还具备上行空间？本篇报告我们将用定量测算的方式来分析黄金在不同情景下的风险和机会。 电 话 会 议 l and and the submit and the more of ...

作者： 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 屠 强 资深高级宏观分析师 联系人： 屠强、耿佩璇、浦聚颖 摘要 高频跟踪：工业生产小幅走弱，建筑业开工边际改善，货运量有所回升。 【工业生产】工业生产小幅走弱。 本周，高炉开工小幅回落，同比-0.2pct至4.7%。化工链中PTA和涤纶 长丝开工均有下行，同比分别-0.2、-1.2pct至5%、3.6%。汽车半钢胎开工连续两周回落，同比-2.8pct 至-2.1%。 【建筑业开工】建筑业开工边际改善。 本周，全国粉磨开工率、水泥出货率边际改善，同比分别+1.1pct 至0.8%、+0.8pct至-2%。沥青开工率同比也有上行，较前周+2.3pct至-1.2%。 【下游需求】全国新房成交降幅较大，货物运输强度有所回升。 本周，全国新房成交同比-24.2pct 至-22%；其中一线、二线、三线城市成交均有走弱。物流表现有所好转，公路货车通行量同比+3.2pct至 2.6%；与出口相关的港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量同比分别+8.7pct至5.1%、+9.2pct至10.3%。人流强 度也有回升，迁徙指数同比+6pct至-5.2%。 【物价】农产品、工业品价格均有分化。 本 ...