Core Viewpoint - The current market concerns do not pose significant downward risks, and the bullish sentiment is expected to continue, with potential for a favorable market performance in Q4 2025 and spring 2026 [2][5]. Group 1: Market Concerns and Outlook - The macroeconomic combination in H2 2025 is unfavorable but will not impact the expected improvement in supply-demand dynamics in 2026, as the key verification period for demand may not occur until after 2025 [2][3]. - The structural mainline related to the core narrative of the bull market has not yet established a trend, but this is not expected to hinder the performance of Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025 [3][4]. - The potential impact of the expiration of the 90-day pause on US-China tariffs is expected to weaken over time, as trade relations between China and other countries remain stable [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Strategies - The focus for short-term investments should be on "bull market synchronous assets," particularly in sectors like brokerage, insurance, military industry, and rare earths, while also considering high-demand sectors like pharmaceuticals and overseas computing [6][7]. - The structural strategy of "anti-involution" in high market share manufacturing sectors in China aims to build price alliances and enhance industry concentration, particularly in solar energy, chemicals, and key electrical components [6][7]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to lead in the bull market, with increasing optimism and a high net inflow from mainland investors, indicating a potential for better performance compared to A-shares [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The market perceives a saturated space for anti-epileptic drugs, but there exists a significant treatment gap in epilepsy, with 51.7 million people affected globally as of 2021, and current medications having limited efficacy and notable side effects. New drugs with promising clinical data may address this unmet need [1][3]. Group 1: Treatment Gap in Epilepsy - Approximately 9 million epilepsy patients in China face a treatment gap, with around 30% of patients unable to achieve effective seizure control despite monotherapy or polytherapy [1][3]. Group 2: New Drug Development - The pipeline for anti-epileptic drugs is expanding due to the discovery of new targets and technologies, with breakthroughs expected to fill the unmet market needs. Current anti-seizure medications (ASMs) have limited efficacy and significant side effects [3]. - Notable advancements in overseas clinical trials include Xenon's XEN1101, Longboard's Bexicaserin, and Stoke's Zorevunersen, while domestic progress includes Hainan Haiyao's new generation KCNQ potassium channel activator [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade risks following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies like Japan and the EU [2][49]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6]. - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9]. - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, mid-range tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14]. Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][51]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a 4.7-fold increase in annual investment to fulfill its promise [4][21]. - South Korea's commitment of $350 billion represents 53% of its fiscal spending, necessitating a dramatic increase in FDI to the US over three years [4][21]. Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to maintain a long-term and targeted approach to tariffs, with significant revenue generation from tariffs being a primary benefit of trade agreements [5][32]. - As of July 29, 2025, US tariff revenue reached $125.6 billion, 2.3 times higher than the previous year, indicating a shift in focus from currency manipulation to fiscal control [5][32]. - The article suggests that the US may continue to leverage tariff threats as a negotiation tool, with a potential shift in strategy from historical approaches that focused on currency adjustments to a more fiscal-oriented strategy [5][37].

Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events - Developed market indices experienced a rebound, with the Nasdaq index rising by 3.9%, and the S&P 500 increasing by 2.4% [2][3] - Emerging market indices showed mixed results, with the Ho Chi Minh index up by 6.0% and the SENSEX in India down by 0.9% [3][11] - The WTI crude oil price fell by 7.8% to $63.9 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 1.3% to $3,403.5 per ounce [26][30] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on all imported semiconductor chips, effective August 7, with exemptions for companies that commit to manufacturing in the U.S. [32] - On August 6, the U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, bringing the total to 50%, effective August 28 [32][33] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for July was reported at 50.1, below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating a potential slowdown in the services sector [40] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data for July is anticipated to show a core CPI month-over-month increase of 0.3%, aligning with market expectations [43][44] - Germany's industrial production for June decreased by 1.9%, significantly below the expected decline of 0.5%, suggesting ongoing economic weakness [46]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment strategies in the express delivery and petrochemical industries under the "anti-involution" policy, highlighting the potential for price recovery and structural opportunities in these sectors [1]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is expected to experience performance elasticity due to price recovery, with the belief that the "anti-involution" policy aligns with optimizing logistics costs, rather than conflicting with it [2]. - The National Postal Administration's commitment to high-quality industry development and the restoration of price disparities is seen as a positive factor, ensuring that low prices can be adjusted above delivery fees to protect workers' rights and coordinate the national e-commerce supply chain [2]. - Predictions indicate a significant range of net profit for companies within the Tongda system for 2025 and 2026, reflecting the potential impact of price adjustments on profitability [3][4]. Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical sector's "anti-involution" opportunities are primarily concentrated in high-demand sub-sectors, where high operating rates indicate better current market conditions [5][6]. - The focus should be on the current economic climate of the industry, with high operating rates suggesting a more favorable environment for growth, while the elimination of outdated capacity can enhance this situation [6]. - Key areas within the petrochemical industry expected to see significant "anti-involution" potential include refining, olefins, and polyester, with recommendations to focus on leading companies in these segments [8][11].

Core Viewpoint - The market consensus is gradually shifting towards the initiation of a bull market, but there are significant short-term divergences among investors regarding market conditions and expectations [3][4]. Short-term Market Challenges - The market faces several short-term challenges, including expectations of economic slowdown in Q3 2025 and a policy focus on structural adjustments, which may not support a breakout in indices [2][3]. - The main structural narrative of the bull market has yet to be established, with current high momentum sectors like pharmaceuticals and overseas computing being seen as independent trends rather than the core narrative of the bull market [3][4]. Potential Bull Market Directions - Two potential directions for the bull market structure include: 1. Breakthroughs in domestic technology, particularly in AI and robotics, which could lead to a broader market expansion across infrastructure, hardware, software applications, and business models [3][4]. 2. High global market share manufacturing engaging in anti-involution strategies, which could enhance industry concentration and pricing power [3][4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The bull market atmosphere is expected to persist despite unfavorable macroeconomic conditions in Q3, as the long-term supply-demand dynamics are projected to improve by 2026 [4][5]. - Key factors that could impact the bull market sentiment include significant demand declines around mid-2026 and constraints on China's manufacturing competitiveness [5][6]. Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - Short-term strong sectors include pharmaceuticals and overseas computing, which reflect high growth expectations but may face challenges in maintaining independent performance [7][8]. - The defense and military sector is anticipated to have repeated opportunities before early September, while new consumption sectors may see rotational gains [8][10]. - The Hong Kong stock market is highlighted as a potentially leading market in the bull cycle, with a focus on pricing trends that align with fundamental expectations [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential risks and uncertainties facing the U.S. economy in the second half of 2025, particularly focusing on the impact of tariffs and the "Beautiful America Act" on economic performance and market behavior [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The IMF has revised down the global GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from January, with the U.S. forecast lowered from 2.7% to 1.8%, a drop of 0.9 percentage points [1]. - There is a need to guard against the risk of an unexpected economic downturn, especially if the unemployment rate rises to the range of 4.4% to 4.6%, which could trigger a "recession trade" in the market [2][5]. Group 2: Tariffs and Legislative Impact - The two main themes for the second half of 2025 are the verification of tariff data and the potential impact of the "Beautiful America Act" [2]. - The introduction of Tariff 2.0 has increased uncertainty regarding trade, industrial production, and economic growth in the latter half of the year [1]. Group 3: Currency Dynamics - The article suggests that under the influence of a slowing U.S. economy and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar may further depreciate, leading to a passive appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar [8]. - If the U.S. moves towards fiscal balance following the implementation of the "Beautiful America Act," it could create additional space for interest rate cuts, potentially continuing the trend of gradual dollar depreciation [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving investment strategy in the real estate sector, emphasizing a shift towards a new development model that focuses on high-quality housing and a return to manufacturing from finance [1][2]. Group 1: New Development Model - The new real estate development model may include concepts such as high-quality housing, human-centered design, lifecycle management of properties, and a system for selling completed homes [1]. - The current market shows a low penetration rate of high-quality housing at only 24% within urban residential stock, while the demand for improved housing is projected to account for 44% from 2022 to 2025 [1]. Group 2: Quality Housing Definition - The definition of "good housing" is expanding from a focus on physical structures to include functional living spaces and emotional fulfillment, indicating a broader understanding of housing quality [2]. Group 3: Lessons from the U.S. Market - Drawing parallels with the U.S. experience post-real estate crisis, the article suggests that companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management will successfully navigate market cycles [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Companies that can create high-quality housing products are expected to thrive, characterized by strong product margins and efficient inventory turnover [6]. - The premium for high-quality housing products is becoming increasingly evident, as illustrated by specific case studies [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a correction phase, returning to a volatile state, with the main structural breakthrough yet to be established. The market will digest the expected economic growth slowdown in the second half of 2025 and the policy focus on structural adjustments [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The focus on self-sufficiency and defense industry presents a potential opportunity, with a "barbell strategy" (high dividend + micro-cap stocks) likely to see a rebound [4]. - The main catalyst for future upward movement is the trend against "involution," which is expected to improve the profitability of midstream manufacturing in the long term, although short-term momentum may face resistance [4]. Group 2: Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical and computer sectors (IT services, software development) are highlighted as key areas of interest [5]. - In the short term, consumer goods are expected to have a rebound potential, following the recent activity in Hong Kong's cyclical stocks, indicating a time window for revaluation of consumer goods [8]. - In the medium term, the probability of a reversal in the consumer goods sector is increasing, with the rise in consumer goods prices expected to solidify the current valuation of new consumption sectors [9]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China focused on the development of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for a stable and active capital market [11]. - The policy mentions the attractiveness and inclusivity of the Chinese capital market, reflecting ongoing attention to its healthy development [12]. - Non-manufacturing PMI remains above the threshold but shows signs of marginal slowdown, with input prices performing better than sales prices [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent U.S. non-farm payroll data and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, highlighting increasing divisions within the Fed regarding potential rate cuts and the resulting impact on global markets [2][3][7]. Economic Indicators - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking a period of inaction since Trump's presidency [3][6]. - The U.S. added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [3][6][7]. - Revisions to previous months' non-farm payroll data showed a downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs, indicating a weakening labor market [3][6]. Market Reactions - The weak employment data triggered a "recession trade" in global equity markets, leading to declines in most equity assets and significant drops in metal commodities [3][6][7]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 17 basis points to 4.23%, while the U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase, remaining below 100 [3][6][7]. Fund Flows - There was a notable outflow of capital from the Chinese stock market, with domestic investors withdrawing $3.085 billion, while foreign investors saw an inflow of $882 million [3][6]. - In the past week, global funds saw significant inflows into U.S. and European markets, while Chinese equity funds experienced substantial outflows [3][9]. Valuation Metrics - The Earnings Risk Premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index rose to 64%, indicating a slight recovery in valuation attractiveness compared to historical levels [3][6]. - The risk-adjusted returns for the CSI 300 increased from 71% to 79%, while the S&P 500's risk-adjusted returns remained stable at 48% [3][6]. Sector Performance - In the U.S. equity market, funds flowed into financials, industrials, and infrastructure sectors, while healthcare, energy, and technology sectors saw outflows [11]. - In the Chinese market, capital flowed into financials, technology, and materials sectors, with outflows from real estate, infrastructure, and healthcare sectors [11].