6 月 4 日，桥水基金创始人瑞 · 达利欧在 X 上发布长文，介绍其新书《国家如何破产：大周期》的核 心观点。 这位全球宏观投资者用 50 年主权债投资经验，再次系统揭示国家如何走向债务危机：不是突然爆发， 而是一个可以量化、可监测的 " 大债务周期 " ，最终演变为系统性失控，正如他所比喻的 " 经济心脏 病发作 " 。 达利欧指出，美国当前财政收入约 5 万亿美元，支出却高达 7 万亿，债务总额逼近 30 万亿，未来十 年更可能升至 55 万亿。当利息支出挤压正常财政、国债需求下滑、央行被迫印钞时，整个货币体系就 将陷入 " 债务 — 通胀 — 再借债 " 的恶性螺旋。 这类机制曾反复出现在历史上，摧毁了英镑、荷兰盾等昔日的全球储备货币体系。 对于更多投资者而言，达利欧的建议一以贯之：在债务扩张、货币贬值的世界中，黄金、比特币等非政 府发行资产或将相对占优；同时，应关注那些财政稳健、地缘政治风险较低的国家市场，并减少对债务 类资产的依赖。 "我认为， 将一小部分资金配置在黄金中，不仅可以降低整个投资组合的风险，还很可能提升组合的长 期回报。 " 达利欧还强调，这场危机并非不可避免，但留给市场应对的时间窗 ...

"汽车正在从纯粹的机械设备，转变为某种像是'装上轮子的计算机'。" 点击阅读：《 巨头Baillie Gifford旗舰基金掌舵人的年度信：在不确定环境中，韧性并不是次要美德， 而是长期成功的核心…… 》 "没有哪个电动车市场像中国这样：极其拥挤，竞争激烈，但它也有望以良好的品质和极低的价格，引 领全球电动车行业。" 地平线是成立于 2015 年的中国 AI 芯片独角兽，专注于为自动驾驶、智能驾驶和通用机器人提供软硬 件一体化的计算平台。 2024 年 10 月 24 日，地平线登陆港股主板市场，成为港股当年最大科技 IPO 。今年 2 月底其股价 曾一度超 10 港元，目前最新市值近千亿港元。 2024 年公司收入 23.84 亿元，同比增长 53.6% ；授权及服务收入增长 70.9% ，毛利率高达 92% ，这意味着公司不仅在卖芯片，还在往更高附加值的软件授权、全栈解决方案转型。 Baillie Gifford 是地平线的主要机构投资者之一。早在私募融资阶段，该公司即已投资地平线，并在 IPO 中认购约 5.07 亿股，投资约 2.6 亿美元，成为最大基石投资者之一。截至 2025 年 4 月，贝利 · ...

其他值得看 他谈到了价值投资的恒久原则，还谈到对外贸易、特朗普、比亚迪、马斯克……充满了普世的胸怀和理 性开放的心态，也有令人叫绝的精准预见。 点击阅读： 芒格谈价值投资、比亚迪、特朗普和马斯克，超精彩的21分钟（2019年） 本周 推荐阅读 1、 巨头Baillie Gifford旗舰基金掌舵人的年度信：在不确定环境中，韧性并不是次要美德，而是长期 成功的核心…… 2019年2月14日，查理·芒格在每日期刊年度股东会结束后，接受了雅虎财经主编安迪·瑟沃（Andy Serwer）的简短采访。 2、 最近卖光美股！82岁吉姆·罗杰斯：我现在坐拥大量现金，策略上和巴菲特完全一样 时隔6年回头看这场针对时事话题的访谈，芒格总能用他标志性的机智与智慧，将讨论带回那些超越时 间的洞见。 太值得回味了！enjoy it～～ 4、 稳健工具箱里的自由现金流和红利，究竟该如何选择？ 看完记得 点击视频右下角头像 ， 关注【聪明投资者视频号】 ，带你看投资智慧的浓缩精华。 转载开白， 请联系小编微信【fanxiaocom】，添加备注 "转载+新媒体名+姓名" ，按顺序邀请加入媒体转载群 商务合作， 请添加聪明牛牛【微信cong ...

Group 1 - The article discusses Charlie Munger's views on the future of BYD in the hybrid and electric vehicle sectors, predicting it will be a major winner [22] - Munger emphasizes the importance of value investing, stating that all wise investments are essentially value investments [60][64] - He highlights the competitive nature of the automotive market in the U.S. and the challenges for new entrants, particularly from China [19][20] Group 2 - Munger expresses a positive outlook on the trade relationship between the U.S. and China, welcoming the trade deficit as beneficial for China's development [10][12] - He acknowledges that China has advantages in certain fields compared to the U.S., which is a natural occurrence in global trade dynamics [13][16] - Munger reflects on the historical context of trade and competition, using the example of Berkshire Hathaway's investment in Dexter Shoe to illustrate the impact of globalization [14][15] Group 3 - The article mentions that BYD has stopped producing gasoline-powered vehicles and is focusing on electric and hybrid cars, with significant sales growth in 2023 [23] - Munger believes that BYD's strength lies in its battery technology, positioning it well for future success in the electric vehicle market [21] - The discussion includes the competitive landscape of electric vehicles, with Tesla being recognized for its significant achievements [24]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of floating fee rate funds marks a significant transformation in the industry, with a focus on aligning fund manager compensation with long-term performance [1][18]. Summary by Sections Floating Fee Rate Funds - The first batch of floating fee rate funds was approved and launched, with performance benchmarks primarily against mainstream indices like the CSI 300 and the CSI A500 [1]. - The management fee structure is tiered based on annualized excess returns, with fees ranging from 0.60% to 1.50% depending on performance relative to benchmarks [1]. Fund Manager Profile - Zhu Hongyu from China Merchants Fund is highlighted as a suitable manager for these funds, possessing nearly 20 years of investment research experience and over 13 years in investment management [2]. - Zhu's extensive background in both public and private equity, along with a strong historical performance record, aligns with the requirements for managing floating fee rate funds [2][3]. Investment Philosophy and Strategy - Zhu Hongyu's investment approach is characterized by a three-tiered cognitive framework: understanding capability boundaries, recognizing industry life cycles, and insights into human behavior in market dynamics [6][8][13]. - The strategy emphasizes a balance between focused investments in well-understood companies and diversification across various sectors to mitigate risks [8]. Market Outlook - The current market is seen as transitioning into a phase of "profit stabilization and valuation recovery," with expectations of economic resilience supported by favorable policies [15]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as defense, consumer goods, and pharmaceuticals, with a focus on undervalued assets and structural growth potential [16][17]. Conclusion - The introduction of floating fee rate funds represents not only a management model innovation but also a test of active equity fund managers' long-term capabilities [18]. - Zhu Hongyu's investment philosophy and experience provide a roadmap for navigating market uncertainties while aiming for sustainable long-term returns [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding industry dynamics and leveraging investment strategies that focus on growth opportunities, particularly in the context of China's technological advancements and market trends [2][3][10]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy and Strategy - Warren Buffett's investment philosophy is heavily influenced by both Benjamin Graham and Philip Fisher, highlighting the need for deep business understanding and smart investment decisions [1]. - Philip Fisher is recognized as the father of growth stock investment strategies, which focus on identifying key industry dynamics and trends [2]. - The emergence of significant technological advancements, such as the DeepSeek-R1 model, has revitalized the Chinese tech sector, creating a fertile ground for growth investments [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights and Trends - The article discusses the digital transformation and its implications for investment, referencing the historical context of China's internet development starting in 1995 [4][5]. - Li Tao, a prominent fund manager at Harvest Fund, has a long history in technology investment, witnessing multiple cycles in the tech sector since 2008 [6]. - Li Tao's investment strategy focuses on long-term growth, identifying companies with strong business models and competitive advantages, which has led to significant returns for his managed funds [7][10]. Group 3: Performance and Achievements - As of the first quarter of this year, Li Tao's managed fund, Harvest Information Industry, achieved a return of 43.95%, outperforming its benchmark by 21.34% [7]. - The article highlights the importance of a systematic research approach and team collaboration in identifying key industry opportunities and high-quality companies [19]. - Harvest Fund's innovative floating fee structure aims to align the interests of fund managers and investors, marking a new era for equity funds [20][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that technology growth will likely be a central investment theme through 2025, supported by domestic policies and the push for self-sufficiency [10]. - Li Tao believes that the demand for computing power will surge due to the explosion of AI applications, presenting significant investment opportunities [11]. - The article concludes that with the right experience, platform support, and investment strategies, companies can achieve mutual growth with investors [28].

Core Viewpoint - Jim Rogers expresses significant concern about the current state of the U.S. stock market, indicating that he has sold all his American stocks, suggesting that the market is nearing the end of a "party" phase [1][2][30]. Summary by Sections On Tariffs and Debt - Rogers believes tariffs are generally harmful and that they ultimately burden consumers, as they are essentially a tax on imports [7][8]. - He notes that China is currently experiencing a slowdown due to the aftermath of a real estate bubble and global trade contractions, but he expects China to remain patient in negotiations regarding tariffs with the U.S. [9][10]. - He expresses concern over the U.S. national debt, emphasizing that the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in history and worries about the implications for future generations [11][12][17][45]. On Economic Conditions and Speculation - Rogers acknowledges that while economic data may appear strong, historical patterns suggest that such conditions often precede downturns, leading to his current worries about market sustainability [21][25][30]. - He highlights a surge in speculative behavior among new investors, which historically has led to negative outcomes [26][28]. On Interest Rates - Rogers predicts that interest rates will rise due to ongoing global inflation, suggesting that rates could exceed 5% in the coming years [36][39]. On Investment Opportunities - Currently, Rogers sees limited attractive investment opportunities globally, although he maintains a positive outlook on China and Uzbekistan [41][42][62]. - He has previously invested in India but currently holds no positions there, indicating a cautious approach to emerging markets [41]. On Personal Investment Strategy - Rogers holds a significant cash position and continues to invest in gold and silver, viewing them as long-term assets for his children [51][52]. - He expresses skepticism about the future of the U.S. dollar, acknowledging its current strength but warning of the unsustainable debt levels that could lead to a decline [56][57]. On Market Sentiment - Rogers advises investors to be extremely cautious in the current market environment, emphasizing the need for prudence amid rising excitement and confidence among market participants [64][70].

Core Viewpoint - Baillie Gifford, a legendary asset management company, has successfully identified and invested in disruptive growth stocks like Tesla, Amazon, and SpaceX, positioning itself as a leader in long-term growth investment [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Baillie Gifford was established in 1908 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, known for its long-term investment strategies [1]. - The flagship product, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (SMT), is regarded as a benchmark for ultra-long-term investments [2]. - SMT currently manages approximately £13.3 billion in assets, with a net return of about 13% over the past year, a cumulative loss of around 30% over the last three years, and an annualized return of about 12% over the past decade [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Portfolio - SMT's recent key holdings include publicly traded companies such as MercadoLibre (5.9%), Amazon (5.6%), and Meta (4.7%), as well as private companies like SpaceX (valued at approximately £1.071 billion) and ByteDance (approximately £566 million) [3]. - The current management team, led by Tom Slater and Lawrence Burns, emphasizes resilience as a core virtue for long-term success in unpredictable environments [4][22]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Company Performance - The past year has seen significant challenges, including high interest rates and geopolitical volatility, yet many invested companies have shown impressive operational performance [7]. - Companies have adapted by reducing expansion rates and refocusing on core strengths, leading to improved profit margins and accelerated free cash flow [10][11]. Group 4: AI and Technological Advancements - The rise of generative AI has had a profound impact, particularly in software engineering, leading to significant productivity gains [12][13]. - Companies like Meta and Spotify have successfully integrated AI into their operations, enhancing efficiency and revenue growth [19][20]. Group 5: Global Investment Perspective - SMT has leveraged its global investment mandate, focusing on companies like MercadoLibre, which has shown strong performance despite macroeconomic challenges in Latin America [36]. - The investment in Nubank, a leading independent digital bank outside China, highlights the potential for growth in emerging markets [39]. Group 6: Future Outlook and Emerging Opportunities - Baillie Gifford is actively seeking the next generation of winners, with investments in companies like SpaceX and Aurora Innovation, which are poised to reshape their respective industries [47][50]. - The company remains committed to identifying transformative opportunities and supporting innovative firms that can deliver substantial long-term returns [57].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and dynamics of China's consumption and investment landscape within the global economic framework, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to enhance consumer spending while managing trade surpluses and capital flows [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Economic Structure - China's fixed asset investment (FAI) growth has accelerated since 2020, primarily supported by high-end manufacturing, despite a significant decline in real estate investment [4][5]. - The high investment and savings rates in China have led to substantial production capacity, which is largely absorbed through exports, resulting in record trade surpluses [6][10]. - The trade surplus reached nearly $99 billion in a single month, with annual figures exceeding 7 trillion yuan, indicating strong manufacturing competitiveness but weak domestic consumption [6][10]. Group 2: Consumer Confidence and Policy Measures - Recent policy measures, such as consumption vouchers, have temporarily boosted consumer spending, but their long-term effectiveness remains questionable [7]. - Consumer confidence indices show that income confidence has remained around long-term averages, but the "scar effect" from the pandemic has significantly dampened consumer sentiment [8][9]. - Household savings continue to grow, with M2 growth rebounding, yet the fundamental savings behavior of consumers has not changed [8][9]. Group 3: Global Economic Relations and Capital Flows - China's strong investment and weak consumption are likely to maintain high trade surpluses, leading to continued accumulation of foreign assets estimated at $2-3 trillion [10][12]. - The U.S. has responded to China's trade surplus with tariffs, which have not effectively reduced import costs and may have exacerbated inflationary pressures domestically [12][14]. - There is a shift in capital flows, with funds increasingly moving towards non-U.S. assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies, European bonds, and offshore markets like Hong Kong [12][14]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The article highlights the potential for Hong Kong stocks to benefit from these capital flows, with significant IPO activity indicating renewed investor interest [14][15]. - The outlook for Hong Kong as a major financing center is positive, supported by the ongoing global economic interconnections and China's relative advantages [16].

Core Viewpoint - Warren Buffett will not take the main stage at the upcoming shareholder meeting, as confirmed by his daughter Susan, indicating a shift in leadership dynamics at Berkshire Hathaway [1] Group 1: Shareholder Meeting Arrangements - Susan Buffett mentioned that if health permits, Warren Buffett will sit in the front row with other board members and executives during the next shareholder meeting [1] - Greg Abel revealed that the announcement regarding the shareholder meeting's new arrangements was made due to numerous inquiries from suppliers and stakeholders about the future direction of the meeting [1] - The 2026 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting is scheduled for May 2, with a Q&A session planned for that morning, and further details will be released in early next year alongside the annual report [1] Group 2: Emotional Impact - Susan noted that many attendees were emotional during Warren Buffett's last address at the shareholder meeting, highlighting the memorable atmosphere of the event [1]