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美国码农,正被AI“大屠杀”
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-31 14:08
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of AI on the job market for programmers in the U.S., highlighting a drastic decline in employment rates and the challenges faced by new graduates in securing jobs in the tech industry [2][3]. Group 1: Employment Trends - AI-related layoffs are projected to reach 1.17 million by 2025, marking the highest level since 2020 [4]. - The employment rate for programmers has plummeted by 27.5%, indicating a loss of nearly one-third of jobs in this sector [5][6]. - A study from Stanford University reveals that the employment rate for programmers aged 22 to 25 has decreased by nearly 20% since the end of 2022 due to the proliferation of AI tools [10]. Group 2: Challenges for Graduates - Graduates from computer science programs, such as those from Stanford and the University of Toronto, are facing unprecedented difficulties in finding jobs, with many opting to pursue further studies due to a lack of opportunities [21][25]. - The job market has shifted dramatically, with many positions now requiring at least one year of experience, which most new graduates do not possess [31]. - A significant decline in entry-level job opportunities has been noted, with the share of new hires with less than one year of experience dropping by 50% from pre-pandemic levels [101]. Group 3: AI's Role in Job Market Dynamics - AI is not merely a tool for enhancing productivity but is increasingly replacing programming roles, leading to a crisis in the software engineering field [18]. - A report indicates that 90% of tech positions now utilize AI tools, a sharp increase from just 14% in 2024 [51]. - Despite the rise of AI, the quality of AI-generated code is concerning, with AI code exhibiting a higher error rate compared to human-written code, leading to significant technical debt [60][62]. Group 4: Industry Transformation - The nature of programming jobs is evolving, with employers now seeking higher-level skills beyond mere coding, such as understanding client needs and managing the software development lifecycle [57]. - The article emphasizes the need for programmers to adapt to new roles that involve critical thinking and strategic business understanding, as traditional coding tasks are increasingly automated [116][118]. - The shift towards AI in programming has created a paradox where experienced developers find themselves reviewing and correcting AI-generated code, which can slow down their productivity [91].
只有罗永浩还在靠嘴吃饭
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-31 11:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent return of Luo Yonghao to the tech scene, highlighting his efforts in live streaming and AI entrepreneurship, while also addressing the challenges he faces in the competitive landscape of the tech industry [4][31]. Group 1: Event Overview - Luo Yonghao's tech sharing conference attracted significant attention, with 950 million views on Douyin and 70,000 live viewers, despite criticisms regarding the lack of innovative AI products [4][10]. - The event featured nine tech products, including Luo's own AI product "Qie Ting," which combines AI functionalities for reading and analyzing books [10][16]. - Luo announced that ticket revenues of approximately 1.66 million yuan would be donated, and he expressed intentions to invest in promising tech companies [4][10]. Group 2: Luo Yonghao's Current Position - After a hiatus from public speaking, Luo has re-emerged as a prominent figure in the tech industry, leveraging his podcast and social media presence to maintain public interest and engagement [8][11]. - His podcast has attracted seven brand sponsors within six months, indicating a successful monetization strategy while keeping him in the public eye [11][12]. - Luo's engagement in public discourse has translated into significant traffic for his live streaming sessions, with a notable increase in sales during controversial discussions [12][22]. Group 3: Challenges in AI Entrepreneurship - Luo's AI project, "Xi Hong Xian," has faced funding challenges, with no public financing updates since a $50 million angel round in November 2022 [25][27]. - The competitive AI landscape is marked by substantial investments from other companies, making it difficult for Luo to keep pace with industry leaders [24][25]. - Despite setbacks, Luo remains committed to his AI ventures, although the products presented have not met market expectations [29][31]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Prospects - The smartphone market is undergoing a transformation with the rise of AI technology, presenting potential opportunities for Luo to re-enter the mobile sector [31][32]. - Luo's unique position as a multi-platform live streamer allows him to reach diverse audiences, contrasting with other major streamers who have become less vocal [21][19]. - The article suggests that Luo's ability to maintain relevance in the tech industry will depend on his continued engagement with the public and his capacity to innovate within the AI space [32][34].
这代人,不想急了
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-31 11:37
Core Insights - The article discusses a shift in consumer sentiment, particularly among younger demographics, from a fast-paced, achievement-oriented mindset to a more relaxed, self-paced approach to life and goals [2][4][6] - Swisse's collaboration with the People's Daily on the "Year-End Talk" video resonates with this sentiment by promoting the idea of finding one's natural rhythm rather than adhering to societal pressures [4][6][20] Group 1: Marketing and Brand Strategy - The "Year-End Talk" video achieved 50 million views within 24 hours, indicating a strong resonance with the audience and a shift in marketing strategy from traditional brand messaging to engaging in public discourse [4][7][12] - The involvement of the People's Daily signifies that the content transcended mere brand expression and tapped into genuine societal needs, marking a structural change in year-end marketing strategies [7][8][12] - The narrative approach has shifted from providing answers to fostering shared understanding, suggesting that brands should act as observers rather than authoritative figures [10][12] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Trends - Users are increasingly seeking to define their own pace and rhythm in life, moving away from a one-size-fits-all approach to personal growth and achievement [2][4][22] - The concept of "rhythm" has evolved into a public discussion topic, reflecting a broader societal trend where individuals express their unique experiences and life stages [4][14][20] - The article highlights that the traditional metrics of marketing success are evolving, focusing more on public engagement and meaningful discourse rather than just reach and impressions [12][20] Group 3: Health Industry Implications - Swisse's focus on a lifestyle-oriented approach to health, emphasizing natural rhythms and balance, aligns with the growing consumer preference for holistic well-being rather than quick fixes [16][20] - The brand's messaging reflects a deeper understanding of the pressures faced by young people, advocating for a return to natural living and self-care as a form of resilience [18][20] - This shift in narrative indicates a broader trend in the health industry, moving from problem-solving to maintaining balance and understanding life in a more integrated manner [20]
为什么最赚钱的IT生意往往不起眼?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-31 11:37
Core Insights - Dell's financial report reveals that over 80% of its PC revenue in FY2024 comes from commercial machines, indicating that flashy gaming laptops are a minority in its product lineup [2] - In the current economic climate, consumer spending is tight, while the commercial sector is providing a rare source of stability for tech giants [3] - Companies prioritize stability and sustainability over flashy features, leading IT giants like Dell and HP to focus on the lucrative commercial business [4] Market Dynamics - The commercial sector has high entry barriers, making it difficult for new players to enter, which results in a natural oligopoly [7] - Customer stickiness is strong in the commercial business, as selling hardware is just the beginning; long-term maintenance, software licensing, and asset management follow [8] - The lock-in effect is significant, as once companies choose their IT systems, switching costs increase, leading to stable and sustainable cash flows [9] Evaluation Criteria - In the commercial market, safety and compliance take precedence over design and cutting-edge technology, with total cost of ownership (TCO) and predictability being key concerns [11] - The procurement decision-making process in commercial settings often prioritizes financial and operational metrics over user experience [16] - Trust is a critical factor in the commercial sector, and establishing a reliable relationship can lead to long-term growth [12] Huawei's Strategy - Huawei's "Huawei Qingyun" has made significant strides in the commercial sector, serving over 100,000 industry clients and implementing over 90 scenario-based solutions [14] - The company aims to balance cost, efficiency, and user experience by leveraging its consumer product capabilities in commercial settings [16][17] - Huawei's approach includes integrating AI and collaborative capabilities into commercial products, enhancing user experience while meeting compliance requirements [19] Brand Positioning - Huawei Qingyun has developed a unified brand expression, which is crucial for accelerating business growth in a market dominated by established players [21] - The company is positioned as a pioneer in the HarmonyOS commercial sector, providing not just hardware but also a sustainable value network through ecosystem collaboration [22] - The HarmonyOS enterprise version aims to provide a secure and controllable technology foundation for businesses, facilitating digital transformation across various industries [24] Future Outlook - The competition in the commercial sector will shift from merely providing durable or cheaper products to balancing organizational management security with employee efficiency [27] - Companies that can build resilient digital foundations for various industries will secure their place in the next decade of digitalization [27]
“贵价面包”在高线城市不灵了?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-31 11:37
Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of the bakery brand UH Youhe has been met with a surprising number of store closures in major cities, indicating potential operational challenges despite its popularity and growth in store numbers [4][5][9]. Group 1: Store Expansion and Closures - UH Youhe, established in 2016, gained popularity for its freshly baked products and transparent operations, expanding from Hubei to multiple cities including Changsha, Hangzhou, and Chengdu by 2024 [6][7]. - As of now, UH Youhe has opened over 130 stores across various cities, maintaining its expansion momentum [8]. - However, the brand has also closed several stores in cities like Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, with many closures occurring within a year of opening [9][10]. Group 2: Reasons for Store Closures - The closures are attributed to various reasons, including unsuccessful negotiations for lease renewals and broader business adjustments [10][11]. - Industry analysts suggest that these closures may reflect a strategic move to cut losses on underperforming locations [11]. Group 3: Pricing Strategy - To cope with high operational costs, UH Youhe has been quietly increasing prices across its locations, with individual product prices rising by 1-2 yuan [14]. - The average consumer spending at UH Youhe is around 40 yuan, indicating a shift in pricing strategy to maintain profit margins amidst rising costs [14]. Group 4: Market Trends in Bakery Industry - The premium bakery market has seen intense competition, with many brands facing growth pressures, leading to adjustments in store strategies [15]. - Some brands are shifting focus to lower-tier cities, where there is significant growth potential, as evidenced by the expansion of brands like HOT CRUSH and KUMO KUMO into third-tier cities [16][18]. - The down-market trend is driven by changing consumer preferences, with increased demand for quality and service in less saturated markets [19][21].
早报 | 2026年“国补”政策来了;个人销售购买2年以上住房免征增值税;特斯拉官网罕见发布悲观交付量预期;李蓓卖课遭遇连环怼
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-31 00:24
Group 1 - The Chinese government will implement a new subsidy policy for equipment updates and consumer goods replacement starting in 2026, optimizing support areas and subsidy standards [2] - The subsidy for updating old elevators will be adjusted to a tiered system based on the number of floors, while the car replacement subsidy will be based on a percentage of the car price [2] - The policy aims to support small and medium-sized enterprises and improve the application process to reduce investment thresholds [2] Group 2 - SoftBank has completed a $40 billion investment commitment to OpenAI, marking one of the largest private financings in history [3] - This investment aligns with SoftBank's strategy to focus on AI and related infrastructure, following the sale of its Nvidia shares for $5.8 billion [3] - After this round of investment, SoftBank's ownership in OpenAI exceeds 10% [3] Group 3 - Elon Musk confirmed that xAI has acquired a third building, increasing its AI training computing power to nearly 2 gigawatts [4] - The new facility is located in Southaven, Mississippi, adjacent to xAI's second data center, Colossus 2 [5] - xAI is actively seeking financing to support its expansion plans, having previously discussed raising $20 billion in debt and equity [5] Group 4 - Warner Bros. plans to reject Paramount's acquisition proposal again, as the board is concerned about the lack of increased offers [6] - Paramount's latest offer includes a commitment from billionaire Larry Ellison to guarantee $40.4 billion in equity financing [6] - The board will meet next week to discuss the proposal further [6] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal significant internal divisions regarding future interest rate cuts, with some officials supporting a 50 basis point cut [7] - The Fed lowered the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% to 3.75%, with a vote of 9-3, marking the highest dissent since 2019 [7] - Some officials expressed uncertainty about the need for further cuts due to missing key economic data from a government shutdown [7] Group 6 - A new tax policy will exempt individuals from value-added tax (VAT) when selling homes purchased for over two years, effective January 1, 2026 [8][9] - Homes sold within two years will incur a 3% VAT [8] Group 7 - Tesla's website has published a pessimistic delivery forecast, predicting a 15% year-over-year decline in Q4 deliveries, totaling approximately 422,850 vehicles [10] - This decline is attributed to the expiration of U.S. tax credits and increasing global competition [10] - Tesla's total deliveries for 2025 are expected to be between 1.6 million and 1.65 million, marking an 8% year-over-year decrease [10] Group 8 - Disney has agreed to pay a $10 million civil penalty to settle allegations of violating the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act related to YouTube content [11] - The allegations state that Disney failed to properly indicate that its YouTube videos were directed at children, leading to unauthorized data collection [11] Group 9 - Ganfeng Lithium has been sent for prosecution due to alleged insider trading, with the company stating that its operations remain normal and the issue is historical [12][13] - Following the announcement, Ganfeng's stock fell by 3.78% in A-shares and 2.74% in Hong Kong shares [13] Group 10 - The first oral insulin application by Tianhui Biotech was not approved, with the company stating that the withdrawal was a strategic decision [23][24] Group 11 - The new generation of digital RMB system will officially launch on January 1, 2026, as announced by the People's Bank of China [30] Group 12 - Xiaopeng Motors' chairman, He Xiaopeng, predicts that true fully autonomous driving will arrive in 2026, skipping L3 and moving directly from L2 to L4 [32]
注意“用脑卫生”,打工人最应该戒掉的6件事
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-31 00:24
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "brain hygiene" in the context of modern work environments, highlighting the need to reduce unnecessary cognitive load and allow the brain to recover from mental fatigue. Group 1: Multitasking and Cognitive Load - Multitasking is prevalent in modern work, with employees averaging only 11 minutes on a task before being interrupted, requiring about 25 minutes to refocus [9][10] - Constant task switching depletes glucose in the brain, leading to feelings of exhaustion [9][10] - Strategies to mitigate multitasking include using time management techniques like the Pomodoro Technique and creating a distraction-free work environment [10] Group 2: Information Overload - Excessive information intake, especially from social media, contributes to cognitive fatigue, with humans expected to spend approximately 1.6 million years of attention on social media daily by 2024 [13] - The brain's processing capacity is limited to 120 bits per second, leading to feelings of anxiety and stress when overwhelmed by information [13][14] - Recommendations include digital detox, simplifying information sources, and using external tools for task management [14] Group 3: Emotional Labor - Emotional labor involves managing emotions to meet social expectations, often leading to hidden fatigue [15][16] - This type of labor is frequently underestimated and can lead to significant mental strain, especially in communication-heavy roles [16][18] - To reduce emotional labor, individuals can set clear psychological boundaries and allow for natural social interactions without the need for constant reassurance [19][20] Group 4: Always Being On Call - The expectation to be available for work outside of regular hours creates a state of constant alertness, leading to anticipatory anxiety [22][24] - This state can result in overestimating potential threats and maintaining a heightened state of vigilance [24] - Strategies to manage this include setting specific offline times and creating rituals to transition into relaxation [25][26] Group 5: Decision Fatigue - Shopping and decision-making can lead to cognitive overload, with the "paradox of choice" indicating that too many options can paralyze decision-making [27][28] - Decision fatigue manifests as difficulty in making even simple choices and can lead to impulsive behaviors [28][29] - To combat decision fatigue, it is advised to shop at optimal times, create shopping lists, and limit participation in sales events [29][30] Group 6: Pursuit of Perfection - The pursuit of the "best solution" can lead to mental exhaustion, as individuals may become trapped in a cycle of over-analysis and self-doubt [32][33] - This tendency can prevent individuals from recognizing their achievements and maintaining a healthy mental state [33][34] - To address this, individuals can set deadlines for decisions, prioritize tasks, and focus on progress rather than perfection [34][36]
Manus上岸了,其他人呢?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-31 00:24
Core Insights - The article emphasizes that 2026 is poised to be a year of explosive growth in AI applications, driven by recent significant events such as the acquisition of Manus by Meta for several billion dollars, which serves as a catalyst for Chinese entrepreneurs to consider collaboration and international expansion [4][10][13]. Group 1: Trends in AI Entrepreneurship - Trend 1: Overseas markets are becoming the primary birthplace for successful AI applications, with notable examples like Manus achieving an ARR of over $100 million shortly after its launch [10][12][14]. - Trend 2: Collaboration among AI startups is emerging as a vital strategy for survival, contrasting with the competitive acquisition landscape in Silicon Valley. Domestic companies are focusing on partnerships rather than outright acquisitions [16][19]. - Trend 3: Growth strategies are increasingly important, with investors expecting startups to demonstrate rapid scaling and market traction within short timeframes [20][22]. Group 2: Shifts in Business Metrics - Trend 4: The significance of ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) is diminishing, as the focus shifts to the ability of AI applications to convert token consumption into actual revenue, highlighting the importance of profitability and user retention [25][27][31]. - Trend 5: Traditional industries are undergoing transformation through "AI-native" solutions, with startups leveraging AI to address long-standing inefficiencies and create new business models [32][39][41].
“不被期待”的普通人
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-30 13:20
以下文章来源于刘知趣 ,作者刘知趣 刘知趣 . 虎嗅、澎湃新闻认证作者,十年互联网市场搬砖女工。曾任职于百度、知乎,现关注新青年一代如何更好地生活。 本文来自微信公众号: 刘知趣 ,作者:刘知趣,原文标题:《"不被期待"的我们》,题图来自:视觉中国 在贾樟柯的纪录片《一直游到海水变蓝》中,作家梁鸿回到河南老家,讲述了她父亲梁光正的一生。他一生务农,性格执拗又热心,从未离开过村子,也 从未被写进过任何"时代故事"。镜头前,他搓着手,略显局促地表示自己"就是个普通人,没啥可讲的"。 这种"被忽视"的状态,会随着升学一路延续。教育部《2023年全国教育事业发展统计公报》显示,当年全国普通本科招生478.16万人,而147所"双一 流"高校的本科招生总规模仅约为70万人,占比不过14.6%。这意味着,超过八成的本科生都就读于普通双非院校。在这样庞大的群体里,能被视作"社会 栋梁""家族希望"的,寥寥无几。 但越到中年越意识到,"不被期待"未必是件坏事。 社会学家项飙曾经在《十三邀》中谈及: 当一个人从小被寄予厚望,他的生活就很容易变成一场持续的表演,必须不断证明自己"值得"那份期待。 这个 洞察,道出了高期待背后的沉 ...
谁说有钱人不爱买新能源?
虎嗅APP· 2025-12-30 13:20
Core Viewpoint - The ultra-luxury car market is experiencing a redefinition of "luxury," driven by the changing consumption logic of high-net-worth individuals, with the ZunJie S800 achieving remarkable sales against a backdrop of declining traditional luxury brand sales [2][4]. Market Performance - The ZunJie S800 has achieved over 18,000 pre-orders within 175 days of its launch, with monthly deliveries stabilizing at over 2,000 units, contrasting with a general decline of around 30% in traditional ultra-luxury brand sales [2][4]. - The ZunJie S800 reached a milestone of 10,000 cumulative deliveries in just over 200 days, significantly faster than the typical 18-24 month period for traditional luxury cars [2][4]. Consumer Preferences - High-net-worth individuals are increasingly shifting towards domestic brands, with 42% of luxury car owners opting for Chinese brands, reflecting a significant change in market dynamics [5]. - A survey indicates that 87% of high-net-worth individuals prioritize advanced driving technology and smart cockpit features when purchasing vehicles, with 62% willing to pay a premium of 100,000 to 300,000 yuan for leading-edge technology [8]. Concerns and Preferences in New Energy Vehicles - Despite the demand for advanced technology, there are significant concerns regarding the core shortcomings of new energy vehicles, particularly regarding battery safety and efficiency [9]. - In the high-end new energy market, pure electric vehicles account for only 9% of sales, with a preference for range-extended and plug-in hybrid models, indicating a cautious approach towards fully electric options [9]. Technological Innovations - The ZunJie S800 leverages the Huawei Whale Battery Platform, which addresses safety concerns through advanced thermal management and structural integrity, achieving a battery health rate of 97% after 100,000 kilometers [11][12]. - The platform incorporates a unique thermal management system that actively prevents thermal runaway, enhancing safety beyond traditional passive measures [11][12]. Quality Control and Lifecycle Management - The Whale Battery Platform employs rigorous quality control measures, including 100% X-ray inspection of battery cells, ensuring high standards of safety and reliability [13][20]. - The platform redefines battery ownership by treating battery health as a serviceable asset throughout its lifecycle, allowing for shared maintenance responsibilities between manufacturers and users [18]. Market Implications - The technological advancements of the ZunJie S800 not only redefine consumer expectations in the ultra-luxury segment but also provide a competitive edge for Chinese brands in the high-end automotive market [20][24]. - The ZunJie S800 represents a shift in the automotive industry, moving from traditional supply-demand models to a more integrated approach that emphasizes quality standards and technological innovation [26].