Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment in May 2025 shows a mixed performance across various asset classes, with a notable recovery in commodities and a positive response from developed markets to eased trade tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Performance - In May 2025, major asset performances ranked as follows: Nasdaq > Nikkei > Hang Seng > LME Copper Futures > Euro Stoxx > ChiNext > CSI 300 > Hang Seng Tech > Brent Oil > 0 > China Bonds > US Dollar > Spot Gold > Sci-Tech 50 > South China Composite, with commodities showing upward trends since June [1][14]. - Developed markets outperformed emerging markets, with US tech stocks (TAMAMA index) rising by 11.4% and the DAX and Nikkei indices increasing by over 5% [2][18]. - The CRB index rose by 7.94% from the end of May to June 3, indicating a rebound in commodity prices [2][17]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic indicators for May 2025 suggest a mild recovery in the domestic economy, with the BCI, EPMI, and manufacturing PMI slightly better than previous values [4][66]. - The high-frequency simulation model estimates the actual GDP monthly index for May at 5.19%, projecting a second-quarter GDP of around 5.2% [4][71]. - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.06%, indicating a need for improved production capacity and policy transmission [4][93]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is currently influenced by three main themes: the "tariff theme," which reflects eased tariff risks; the "odds theme," indicating a stabilization of market lower limits; and the "structural certainty theme," focusing on stable sectors and financial assets [3][59]. - The domestic stock market continues to exhibit a "dumbbell" structure, with small and micro-cap stocks and large-cap value styles performing well [2][29]. - Over 80% of the Shenwan first-level industries recorded positive returns in May, with finance and consumption leading the performance [2][39]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Future drivers for equity assets may include a return to historical patterns, with consumer assets showing both "odds and win rate" advantages [5][88]. - The market's lower limit has been raised following the easing of extreme trade conditions, with 71.8% of stocks closing above the 60-week moving average by the end of May [5][94]. - New thematic opportunities may arise from technological breakthroughs in key industries or new mid-term policy incentives expected around the end of July [5][95].

Core Viewpoint - The overall price trend in May shows a lack of consistent recovery, with industrial product prices exhibiting relative weakness, particularly in the context of recent "soft indicators" signaling economic challenges [3][15]. Group 1: Industrial Material Prices - As of May 31, the Business Price Index (BPI) recorded 856 points, down 0.8% from the end of April, with chemical prices showing a month-on-month increase of 1.6% [1][4]. - The energy index within the BPI fell by 2.8% due to geopolitical events affecting oil production [5]. - The South China Industrial Products Index recorded a month-on-month decline of 2.7% and a year-on-year decline of 20.4% [7]. Group 2: Domestic Pricing Adjustments - Domestic pricing for key commodities such as coking coal and cement saw significant declines, with coking coal futures down 26.8% and cement prices down 7.3% month-on-month [7][14]. - Rebar prices fluctuated, peaking at 3073 CNY/ton on May 16 before falling to 2925 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.9% [7][9]. Group 3: Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing price index in major cities mostly declined, with Beijing and Guangzhou down 0.8% and Shanghai remaining flat [9][10]. - The year-to-date high for these cities was recorded earlier in the year, indicating a potential cooling in the real estate market [9]. Group 4: Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index fell by 6.3% month-on-month, with significant declines in silicon wafer prices [10][12]. - In contrast, the semiconductor sector showed strength, with the DXI index rising 9.7%, indicating a positive outlook for memory products [10][12]. Group 5: Export and Shipping Prices - The export shipping sector saw a general increase in prices, particularly for container shipping to the U.S., with indices for Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York rising by 42.8% and 43.2% respectively [13][14]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) stabilized with a 2.3% increase, indicating a recovery in dry bulk shipping rates [13][14]. Group 6: Food Prices - Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with pork prices slightly increasing by 0.2% while vegetable prices fell by 1.4% [14]. - Fruit prices rebounded by 3.3% due to supply issues caused by drought conditions in northern regions [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed performance of various sectors in May, indicating a gradual recovery in certain areas while others continue to face challenges, particularly in real estate and industrial production. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - The cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 1.9% year-on-year as of May 22, marking the first positive reading of the year [1][7] - Industrial sector operating rates showed mixed results, with steel and coking industries underperforming compared to April, while the textile and apparel sectors improved significantly [8][9] - As of the fourth week of May, the operating rate of high furnaces increased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, while coking enterprises saw a 1.6 percentage point increase [8][9] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction funding availability rate remained stable compared to the end of April, with a slight increase of 0.07 percentage points to 58.9% as of May 27 [10][11] - The cement shipment rate recorded 40.5%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point decline year-on-year [10][11] - The oil asphalt operating rate decreased to 27.7% by May 28, down from 34.4% and 30.8% in the previous weeks [10][11] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales - The average daily subway ridership in ten major cities increased by 0.8% year-on-year to 61.51 million, although it showed a decline from the previous month [12] - Real estate sales in May showed a reduced decline compared to April, with a 4.1% year-on-year drop in the average daily transaction area across 30 major cities [14][15] - Retail sales of passenger cars maintained a relatively strong state, with a year-on-year increase of 16% from May 1 to 25 [15] Group 4: Appliance Sales and Export Activity - Retail sales of major home appliances remained high, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines showing significant year-on-year growth rates of 66.1%, 75.2%, and 85.2% respectively during the week of May 19-25 [16][17] - Container throughput showed a slight slowdown, with a year-on-year increase of 5.0% from May 5 to 25, down from 7.3% in April [18] - The number of container ships sent to the U.S. saw a year-on-year decline of 17.2% as of May 31, indicating a potential shift in export dynamics [18][19]

广发宏观周度述评（第16期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-15期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 回看本轮消费触底 的案例，其中包含两点启示。 消费目前仍不算强，但相对最弱的阶段已经过去。 从社会消费品零售总额来看， 2023 年以来的同比增速低点在 2024 年 6-8 月附近， 6 月和 8 月同比分别只有 2.0% 、 2.1% 。其中一线城市更低，上海社零同 比分别只有 -9.4% 和 -6.8% 。 "924" 之后，消费初步修复， 2024 年四季度社零同比月均值为 3.8% ； 2025 年一季度进一步修复至 4.6% ； 4 月进一步上 行至 5.1% 。 从 GDP 口径的批零来看， 2024 年三季度低点的同比为 5.0% ，四季度同比回升至 5.7% ， 2025 年一季度进一步回升至 5.8% 。 三是政策对于新消费业态的明确支持。在 " 创新多元化消费场景，扩大服务消费 " 的政策导向之下，文旅、冰雪、国潮、银发等领域均发展较快。 去年四季度初，我们曾提出 " 战略性关注消费类资产 " ，其中关键理由是 BCI 消费品价格前瞻指数、核心 CPI 同比均已经触底。 当时我们认为" BCI 消费品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The May PMI data indicates a series of characteristics reflecting a weak but stabilizing economy, with improvements driven by eased tariffs and a package of financial policies [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The three "soft indicators" (EPMI, BCI, PMI) show consistent upward trends, suggesting a recovery in May after a downturn in April due to tariff disruptions [1][4]. - The EPMI increased by 1.6 points to 51.0, which is still the third lowest reading for the same period historically [6][7]. - The BCI rose slightly by 0.2 points to 50.3, remaining below last year's level, indicating mixed microeconomic conditions [6][7]. - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 points to 49.5, still below the neutral level of 50, while the non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 50.3 [7][8]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector leads in absolute economic performance, followed by downstream consumer goods, while upstream raw materials lag behind [8][9]. - The May equipment manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2, and the consumer goods manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2, indicating positive trends in these sectors [9][10]. Group 3: Export and Demand - New export orders rose significantly by 2.8 points, reflecting a recovery in exports following the joint statement from the US and Japan [15][16]. - The production index increased to 50.7, and the purchasing volume index rose to 47.6, indicating a rebound in production and procurement activities [17]. Group 4: Price Trends and Expectations - Price indicators have not fully stabilized, but the downward pressure has eased, with the purchasing price index slightly declining to 46.9 [17][18]. - Microeconomic expectations have improved, with the production activity expectation index rising to 52.5, although still below March levels [19][20]. - The finished goods inventory index decreased to 46.5, indicating a cautious approach to inventory management by companies [22]. Group 5: Construction Sector - The construction sector remains weak, with the building PMI at 51.0, down from 51.9, indicating that real estate construction is a major drag on overall economic performance [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector showed mild recovery in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising by 0.5 points to 49.5, slightly above the seasonal average. However, this increase is not strong considering the low base from April due to tariff impacts. The absolute value of 49.5 is only better than May 2019 and May 2023 in the past decade [1][7][8]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In May, the manufacturing sectors that improved can be categorized into three types: emerging manufacturing (computer communication electronics, electrical machinery), essential consumer agricultural products, and the petrochemical industry chain (petrochemical refining, chemicals, synthetic fibers, and plastics) [2][9]. - The macroeconomic clues behind these improvements include: the cancellation of high tariffs leading to better export orders, the continued effects of domestic "two new" policies, and demand growth from the AI industry. The sectors experiencing significant downturns are mainly in the construction chain and optional consumer goods [2][9]. - The electrical machinery sector is leading in terms of prosperity, with a PMI above 55, benefiting from rapid growth in new energy and new energy vehicles, as well as policy dividends from "two new" initiatives [3][11]. Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as new generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors showed improved prosperity in May. This is attributed to the rebound in external demand and domestic policy support [3][12]. - The biological industry remains the weakest, with a significant decline in export orders continuing from April [3][12]. Construction Sector Insights - The construction industry in May is characterized by "infrastructure improvement and real estate drag." Civil engineering construction saw a continuous improvement for two months, while the real estate chain showed weakness across all stages [4][15]. - The construction activity index decreased by 0.9 points to 51.0 in May, indicating a slowdown in the real estate sector [14][16]. Service Sector Performance - The service sector saw a slight improvement, with the PMI rising by 0.1 points to 50.2. Key drivers include travel-related sectors benefiting from the May Day holiday and a rebound in the water transport industry [6][17]. - The information technology service sector continues to perform well, driven by trends such as "AI+" and online consumption [6][17]. Summary of Key Insights - The "two new" policies are concentrated in sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as electrical machinery and computer electronics, which currently show high prosperity [5][6]. - The new generation information technology sector leads in emerging industries, while the service sector's IT services maintain a leading position [5][6]. - External uncertainties continue to impact sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology, as indicated by their performance data [5][6]. - The construction sector is experiencing a rise in prosperity due to accelerated issuance of special bonds and project implementations, although upstream material sectors remain under pressure due to real estate slowdowns [5][6].

第二， 关税临时扰动和内需建筑需求仍偏弱是主要背景。（ 1 ）量价均有一定拖累， 4 月规上工业企业增 加值同比较 3 月放缓 1.6 个点， PPI 同比较 3 月降幅扩大 0.2 个点。（ 2 ）工业增加值为何放缓？一个 线索是出口交货值同比较 3 月回落 6.8 个点，即关税扰动或是主因之一。（ 3 ）价格端 PPI 同比在 3-4 月连续回调，其中国内定价的煤炭和钢铁、全球定价的原油链对价格均有较明显拖累，前者或受建筑业需求偏 弱影响；后者或受关税影响。 广发证券 资深宏观分析师 王丹 bjwangdan@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 4 月规上工业企业营收增速较前值小幅放缓。 1-4 月规上工业企业营收累计同比增长 3.2% ，略低 于前值的 3.4% ；推算营收单月同比增速为 2.6% ，低于 1-2 月同比的 2.8% 和 3 月的 4.2% 。 第三， 利润表现和营收不同， 4 月属于连续第二个月小幅改善。 4 月规上工业企业利润同比增长 3.0% ， 高于 3 月的 2.6% ，以及 1-2 月的 -0.3% 。从"量、价、利润率"三因素拆解看，主要是营收利润率同比 ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 2025年5月BCI读数为50.3，较前值小幅上行0.2个点。从这一指标可以理解"924"以来的经济节奏：2024年10-11月，政策初步见效，微观状况连续好 转；2024年12月，地方集中化债，经济景气度有所回踩；2025年1-3月，民营企业家座谈会叠加Deep Seek重大突破，微观景气度第二轮上行；4月，关税扰动 下经济再度出现回踩；5月，一揽子金融政策叠加关税缓和，经济再度企稳。从万得全A指数观测，股票市场基本上是相似的节奏，可见市场定价的有效性。 第二， 和总量上的弱修复特征对应，从主要分项指标来看，微观状况仍冷热参半：较前值好转的主要是企业融资环境、就业、消费品价格预期分项；继续下行的主 要是中间品价格预期、盈利预期、投资预期分项。 第三， 融资环境改善应主要与5月初一揽子金融政策有关，包括货币政策一端"降准+降息+结构性工具扩容"，以及金融政策一端确保外贸企业"应贷尽贷、应续尽 续"；同时中美日内瓦联合声明后，外需产业链的基本面和信用状况也有所改善。BCI融资环境指数环比上行1.1个点，估计5月信贷情况会好于4月。从大的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the upward limit of equity assets to be opened further through three emerging clues: government investment acceleration, supply-demand relationship management, and improvements in US-China trade relations. Group 1: Government Investment - Government investment is expected to accelerate following the issuance of special bonds and project implementation, with significant activity anticipated in May. The issuance of special bonds began on April 24, and the acceleration of project implementation is expected to lead to increased construction activity, particularly in urban renewal projects [2][4]. - The economic data from April indicates that while equipment and appliance sales are strong, the real estate and narrow infrastructure sectors are lagging, with fixed asset investment showing a year-on-year increase of only 3.6% [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Relationship - New signals from policies indicate a shift towards managing low prices and addressing "involution" competition. The central bank's report emphasizes a transition from managing high prices to low prices, aiming for high-quality development and preventing disorderly competition [3]. - The past two years have seen nominal growth rates lag behind actual growth, leading to higher real interest rates, which in turn dampen investment and consumption. Improving the supply-demand balance is seen as a pathway to raise the price level and stimulate economic activity [3]. Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - Recent communications between US and Chinese officials following the Geneva talks are viewed as a positive signal for improving macroeconomic uncertainty. Enhanced relations could lead to simultaneous improvements in the economic fundamentals and risk appetite [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - The week of May 22 saw significant upward pressure on risk-free rates in the US, leading to a "risk-off" sentiment in global markets. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all recorded declines of approximately 2.5% [5]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index outperformed global markets, rising by 1.1%, while A-shares showed mixed performance with a slight decline in technology stocks [5][6]. Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market displayed divergence, with gold leading gains amid geopolitical risks and tightening liquidity. Gold prices rose by 5.0% for London gold and 5.6% for COMEX futures, while copper also saw a slight increase [6][7]. - Oil prices adjusted downwards, with Brent crude futures falling by 1.0% during the same period [6]. Group 6: Economic Indicators - Industrial production in May is expected to show resilience, with a year-on-year growth estimate of 5.99%, supported by export demand. The actual and nominal GDP growth rates for May are projected at 5.24% and 4.10%, respectively [14]. - Consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) estimates indicate slight declines, with PPI expected to be -2.98% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector [15][16]. Group 7: Policy Developments - The State Council approved the "Manufacturing Green Low-Carbon Development Action Plan (2025-2027)," emphasizing the need for green technology innovation and the transformation of traditional industries [24]. - The government is focusing on addressing "involution" competition to promote healthy industrial development and enhance market competition [25].

广发证券资深宏观分析师 陈嘉荔 gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第一， 美东时间 5 月 16 日 ， 美国众议院预算委员会 否决了共和党预算协调法案草案（ House Reconciliation Bill ）。该委员会以 21 票对 16 票否决了该 法案，保守派共和党人要求对法案进行修改。 5 月 21 日 ，美国众议院共和党人对税收与支出法案进行了最后修改，众议院预算委员会通过"大而美"（ big and beautiful bill ）法案，该法案将进入众议院全体会议审议程序。 第二， 什么是预算协调程序（ Budget Reconciliation Process ）？预算协调程序是一种"快速通道"预算程序 ，旨在让国会能够用"简单多数"在参议院通过影 响赤字和债务的立法，而无需通常的 60 票门槛。预算和解程序通常需要通过 6 个步骤：通过预算决议（ budget resolution ）、委员会审议并修改（ committee markups and floor vote ）、议事规则审查（ Byrd 规则）、两院协商统一文本；两院最终投票、总统签署法案生效 ...