Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding intrinsic value in investment decisions, particularly in the banking sector, amidst recent valuation recovery and market skepticism towards banks [2][3]. Summary by Sections Intrinsic Value and Its Determinants - Intrinsic value is determined by both internal and external factors, with the Dividend Discount Model (DDM) being a conservative approach to assess it through current and future dividends [2]. - Internal factors include current dividends and their growth, which should be viewed over a long-term horizon of fifty to sixty years rather than just short-term fluctuations [2][3]. Current Banking Environment - The banking sector is currently experiencing a challenging period with low growth due to a declining interest rate cycle, which has led to a zero-growth scenario for banks [2]. - Despite this, the long-term perspective suggests that as interest rates stabilize, banks will resume growth in line with M2 money supply, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][3]. Comparison with Market Average - The article highlights that while bank profit growth has decreased, the average profit levels in the economy have decreased even more, suggesting that banks remain relatively more profitable [3][4]. - The concept of relative advantage is crucial; even if a bank's absolute performance declines, its valuation can still increase if it outperforms the average [4]. Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - Investors should adopt a long-term view and consider comparative advantages when analyzing banks, recognizing the unique characteristics of different banks based on their regional and operational factors [5]. - Many strong banks currently offer dividend yields around 5%, and despite the challenges of a declining interest rate environment, they still exhibit growth potential, leading to attractive annualized returns [5]. Economic and Social Implications - The recovery of bank valuations is supported by economic fundamentals and aligns with the needs of the broader economy, contributing to the stability of the capital market and promoting economic growth [5]. - The article posits that the valuation recovery of banks can help repair the balance sheets affected by the real estate crisis, providing a solid foundation for credit expansion and wealth creation [5].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown remarkable performance over the past two years, with significant stock price increases, but there are concerns about the divergence between stock prices and fundamental performance [2][5][6]. Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The stock performance of major banks, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), has seen increases of +17.66%, +52.30%, and +5.71% over the past three years [2]. - The China Securities Banking Total Return Index has been reaching historical highs, indicating strong overall sector performance [2][4]. Group 2: Dividend Indices and Bank Weighting - Traditional dividend indices are strongly correlated with the banking sector, with the "low volatility dividend" index having nearly half of its weight in the banking sector [5]. - The performance of city commercial banks has been better than that of state-owned and joint-stock banks, influencing the composition of various dividend indices [5]. Group 3: Concerns Regarding Banking Sector Fundamentals - Despite a 42.90% increase in the China Securities Banking Total Return Index over the past year, banks have shown stagnation in revenue and net profit growth, alongside declining ROE and increasing overdue rates [5][6]. - The ROE for major banks is around 10%, and maintaining this level requires a profit growth rate of 6.80%, which is not being met according to the latest quarterly reports [6]. - The overall dividend yield for the banking sector has decreased significantly, with major banks now yielding less than 4.50%, down from nearly 7% two years ago [7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Market sentiment towards the banking sector has shifted, with reduced concerns about bad debts and profit growth, leading to a lack of negative commentary in discussions about bank stocks [8]. - The current price-to-book ratio for the China Securities Banking Index is 0.67, indicating that while the sector is not overvalued, the overall investment attractiveness is being questioned [8]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current market is characterized by "medium-low valuation" and "low interest rates," suggesting a potential asset allocation of 65% equities and 35% bonds for defensive investors [11]. - The focus for long-term investment remains on dividend-paying stocks and low-cost dividend ETFs, with a strategy to reinvest dividends and new funds into short-term bonds [11].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant outperformance of small-cap stocks, represented by the CSI 2000 index, compared to large-cap stocks, represented by the CSI 300 index, since the beginning of the year, highlighting a typical small-cap style in the market [3][5] - The CSI 2000 index consists of companies with a median market capitalization of 4.4 billion, with 96% of companies having a market cap below 10 billion, indicating its small-cap nature [3][5] - The top five industries in the CSI 2000 index are mechanical equipment (13.8%), electronics (10.12%), computers (8.88%), biomedicine (7.42%), and automobiles (7.18%), which are all technology growth sectors [3][5][7] Group 2 - The CSI 300 index's top five industries include banking (13.8%), non-bank financials (10.6%), electronics (10.08%), food and beverage (9.53%), and power equipment (7.13%), showing a balance between growth and value attributes [5][7] - The performance of small-cap stocks is influenced by industry factors, with three of the top ten performing industries in the first half of the year being represented in the CSI 2000 index [7][10] - The geographic concentration of listed companies in advanced manufacturing provinces like Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai contributes to the higher representation of small-cap stocks in the CSI 2000 index [10] Group 3 - The article compares the performance and valuation metrics of small-cap stocks (CSI 2000) and large-cap stocks (CSI 300), noting that the median ROE for CSI 2000 is 1%, while for CSI 300 it is 2.56%, indicating lower profitability for small-cap stocks [12][14] - The median PE ratio for CSI 2000 is reported at 74 times, while for CSI 300 it is 20.5 times, suggesting that small-cap stocks are overvalued relative to their earnings [12][14] - Despite lower profitability, small-cap stocks have shown a median revenue growth of 3.57% and a net profit growth of 2.72% in the first quarter, compared to the CSI 300's revenue growth of 3.15% and net profit growth of 6.95% [14][15] Group 4 - The article highlights the differences in performance between small-cap stocks in the US (Russell 2000) and A-share small-cap stocks, noting that the Russell 2000 has a higher proportion of loss-making companies and lower profitability metrics [18][19] - The article attributes the underperformance of US small-cap stocks to high debt risks and a lack of growth in revenue and net profit, contrasting with the performance of A-share small-cap stocks [19][20] - The valuation of US small-cap stocks is lower than that of A-share small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000's forward PE ratio being significantly lower than that of the CSI 2000 [21][22] Group 5 - The article discusses the distinction between micro-cap stocks and small-cap stocks, emphasizing that micro-cap stocks have poor fundamentals and high valuations, which do not reflect their performance [24][25] - Even after excluding micro-cap and loss-making stocks, A-share small-cap stocks still exhibit high valuations compared to large-cap stocks and other markets [26][28] - The article concludes that the recent recovery trend in small-cap profitability represents a critical opportunity for these stocks to prove their value in the market [29][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on Walmart due to increased tariffs and the company's decision to raise prices, which has drawn criticism from former President Trump, who believes Walmart should absorb the costs instead of passing them on to consumers [4][10]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism of Walmart - Trump criticized Walmart for planning to raise prices due to tariffs, stating that the company, which made billions in profit last year, should absorb the costs [4][5]. - He emphasized that Walmart's price hikes should not be blamed on tariffs, as the company has already seen significant profits [4][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Walmart - Walmart reported total revenue of $165.6 billion for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, a 2.5% increase year-over-year, with adjusted operating income of $7.3 billion, up 4.3% [5][7]. - However, the net income attributable to Walmart fell by 12.1% to $4.49 billion, indicating the impact of rising costs on profitability [5][7]. Group 3: Impact of Tariffs on Costs - Walmart's management highlighted the significant cost pressures from tariffs, particularly those imposed on imports from China, which have accelerated since late April [9][8]. - The company is exploring various strategies to mitigate these costs, including diversifying profit sources through e-commerce [9][8]. Group 4: Broader Retail Price Increases - Walmart's price increases may signal a trend for other retailers, as it serves a large portion of American consumers [10]. - Other companies, including Ford and luxury brands, have also announced price hikes, indicating a potential widespread increase in retail prices [10]. Group 5: Inflation and Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped significantly, with the May index falling to 50.8, the second-lowest level recorded since 1978 [12][14]. - Inflation expectations among consumers have risen, with one-year expectations increasing to 7.3%, the highest since 1981 [14][12].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, marking the third downgrade since 2011 and 2023, with the latest downgrade by Moody's to Aa1 from AAA [5][12]. - Credit ratings are evaluations of a debtor's ability to fulfill debt obligations, similar to a credit score for individuals [7][8]. - The downgrade reflects deep-seated issues in the US economy, particularly the high cost of debt driven by increasing fiscal deficits and insufficient revenue growth [12][14]. Group 2 - The total US debt is projected to reach $36.7 trillion by May 2025, with a significant portion maturing in June and September, leading to high repayment obligations [13]. - The high interest rates on US debt, particularly a 4.48% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, contribute to the unsustainable nature of US debt management [14]. - Historical patterns indicate that each downgrade of the US credit rating has led to market corrections, with notable declines in the Nasdaq following previous downgrades [15][18][21]. Group 3 - The article references Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, who has recently shifted his investment strategy to short positions against major tech stocks and Chinese companies [23][27]. - Burry's actions reflect a broader trend where institutional investors have exited the market, leaving retail investors vulnerable to potential downturns [30][34]. - The current market dynamics suggest a potential top formation, with expectations of a significant correction in the near future [36][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on "core assets" in investment strategies, particularly those that leverage China's technological and manufacturing advantages to expand into global markets [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Logic - "Small businesses" do not equate to "small market capitalization"; rather, they refer to business models with weak correlation to national economy and people's livelihood [3]. - Industries such as liquor, beverages, home appliances, building materials, auto parts, new consumption, and cultural media are considered "small businesses" that can still generate large market capitalizations [3]. - The article identifies companies that can showcase China's technological advantages while maintaining a low risk of disruption as a key long-term investment direction [4]. Group 2: Industry Characteristics - Certain industries can effectively utilize China's manufacturing clusters and engineer advantages, with low likelihood of product category disruption or iteration being surpassed [4]. - Leading companies in these sectors have established wide economic moats, benefiting from scale, cost advantages, and continuous incremental innovation [4]. - The current geopolitical context, including the return of core manufacturing to the U.S. and the reduction of trade deficits with developing countries, suggests that China's technological and manufacturing advantages are unlikely to be replaced or surpassed in the next 30 to 50 years [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift of subjective long-biased private equity funds towards Hong Kong stocks due to the significant valuation gap and improved market conditions compared to A-shares, highlighting the potential investment opportunities in the Hong Kong market [3][9][10]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - From 2021 to 2023, the Hang Seng Index fell by 37.39%, while the Shanghai Composite Index only dropped by 12.78%, indicating a more severe decline in Hong Kong stocks [9]. - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index is at the 36.85% percentile over the past decade, making it one of the cheapest major markets globally [9]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of CNOOC in A-shares is 8.81, while in Hong Kong it is only 5.48, showcasing the valuation disparity [9]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The influx of southbound capital has been significant, with over 600 billion yuan bought by southbound funds by the end of April 2023, indicating a strong demand for Hong Kong stocks [12][24]. - New economy companies in Hong Kong, such as Pop Mart and Xiaomi, are showing improved fundamentals and performance, which enhances the attractiveness of the market [13]. - The potential return of Chinese concept stocks to Hong Kong could further invigorate the market [13]. Group 3: Private Equity Strategies - ZY, a value-oriented fund, achieved a 42% return this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 32 percentage points [15]. - DS employs a balanced strategy with a diversified portfolio across various sectors, aiming for long-term compounding returns [17]. - HA HX focuses on concentrated positions in underappreciated sectors, achieving a 56% return over 24 months, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Index [21]. Group 4: Current Market Conditions - As of April 30, the PE ratio of the Hang Seng Index was 9.94, placing it at the 39.67% percentile over the last decade, indicating continued valuation attractiveness [22]. - The number of quality companies in Hong Kong is increasing, supported by improving fundamentals and the potential return of Chinese concept stocks [23]. - The process of market revaluation is ongoing, with southbound capital continuing to flow into Hong Kong stocks [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in the valuation of dividend indices following the annual report updates, attributing this rise to the use of static price-to-earnings (PE) ratios by the China Securities Index, which contrasts with the rolling PE ratios used by other platforms [3][10]. Valuation Changes of Dividend Indices - The valuation of various dividend indices has seen notable changes, with the PE ratios increasing significantly post-annual report updates. For instance, the Dividend Index's PE rose from 7.19 to 8.71, marking a 21.14% increase, while the dividend yield remained stable at 7.10% [7]. - The China Securities Dividend Index also experienced a PE increase of 22.46%, from 7.88 to 9.65, with a slight decrease in dividend yield [7]. - The low-volatility dividend indices showed a lower increase in PE ratios, indicating a more stable valuation compared to single-factor dividend indices [8]. Industry and Sample Performance - The analysis of the China Securities Dividend Index reveals that 58 out of 100 sample companies experienced a decline in profit year-on-year, with an average profit drop of 12.99% [16][17]. - Revenue performance was similarly affected, with 60% of the sample companies reporting a decline in revenue, averaging a decrease of 3.89% [17]. - Industries facing profit declines include coal, transportation, steel, media, and construction materials, while banking and public utilities showed stable profit growth [19][20]. Conclusion on Dividend Indices - The overall valuation increase in dividend indices is primarily driven by the decline in profits among key sectors like coal and steel, leading to a significant rise in PE ratios. Despite this, the indices maintain a stable profit outlook, suggesting that investors can hold onto these indices without excessive concern [20][21].

特朗普又出关税大消息，当地时间5月16日，特朗普表示，未来两到三周内，美国可能会单方面对许多贸易伙伴设定新的关税税率。 昨晚美股高开高走，标普连涨第五天，道指收复年内所有跌幅。截至收盘，道指涨0.78%，标普500指数涨0.7%，纳指涨0.52%。 不过盘后，国际信用评级机构穆迪宣布，由于美国政府债务和利率支付比例增加，该机构决定将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1。 01 特朗普又出关税大消息 据英国《金融时报》报道，当地时间5月16日，美国总统特朗普表示，未来两到三周内，美国可能会单方面对许多贸易伙伴设定新的关税税率。特 朗普称，美国缺乏与所有贸易伙伴通过谈判达成协议的能力。 特朗普当天在阿联酋与企业高管会面时表示，财政部长贝森特和商务部长卢特尼克将发出信函，告诉一些贸易伙伴，他们在美国做生意需要支付多 少钱。 特朗普进一步表示，"虽然有'150个国家'希望达成协议，但不可能与所有国家会面。我认为我们会给出公平的税率，想要与那么多国家见面并谈判 是不可能的。" 回顾此前，特朗普于4月2日宣布对数十个贸易伙伴加征所谓的"对等关税"，一度引发全球金融市场剧烈动荡，随后特朗普改口，宣布暂缓90天执 行，但几乎 ...

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴 实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿知睿见 管理层最近一年一直在提股市的高质量发展 。高质量发展带来的牛市有什么不同呢 ？到底什么 是股市的高质量发展呢 ？ 一 、 高质量发展的典型案例 最近银行的上涨引起了很多人的关注 ， 大家都被涨得一脸懵逼 。 不知道为啥银行能涨得这么猛 ？ 很多人还一个劲的骂银行上涨 ， 怪银行虹吸了小盘股的流动性 。 反正银行一般都不讨投资者的喜爱 ， 公募和私募都不怎么碰 ， 散户更是瞧不上银行那点股价的 弹性 。 只有那些用来打新的账户 ， 才会买点银行作为底仓 。 然而 ， 大家都是短视的 ， 如果我们把时间拉长 ， 你就会发现银行的收益其实很高 。 银行全收益指数从2005年到现在 ， 涨了13倍 。不仅涨幅很大 ， 而且回撤相对小很多 。 指数在低波状态下缓慢爬坡 。 来源：雪球 不过 ， 如果我们只看银行指数 ， 就是另外一番景象 ...