Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the "Market Earnings Ratio" (市赚率) as a valuation parameter for investment decisions, particularly in the context of high-end liquor stocks like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao. It suggests that significant investment should only occur when "bloody chips" (带血筹码) appear, indicating a substantial drop in stock prices and potential for recovery [2][4][5]. Group 1: Market Earnings Ratio - The "Market Earnings Ratio" is defined as PR = PE / ROE / 100, where PE is the price-to-earnings ratio and ROE is the return on equity. This ratio helps identify undervalued stocks [2][4]. - Historical analysis shows that Kweichow Moutai's market earnings ratio only exceeded 2 PR during the 2007 bull market and in 2021, indicating periods of overvaluation [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The first strategy involves investing in Kweichow Moutai at a 60% discount, Wuliangye at 50%, and Luzhou Laojiao at 40% if their performance remains stable, aiming for valuation recovery with a potential doubling of investment [4][5]. - The second strategy suggests increasing investment to 20% or 30% when stock prices and performance decline, focusing on price anchoring rather than performance metrics. For example, if Kweichow Moutai's stock price drops to 1250 yuan, it represents a 50% discount [5][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The article discusses the potential for high returns when "bloody chips" appear, referencing past instances where significant drops led to substantial recoveries, but cautions that replicating such scenarios may be challenging [6]. - It highlights the unique high-margin characteristics of premium liquor stocks, suggesting that while there is widespread recognition of their investment value, opinions on specific pricing vary significantly [6].

哈佛被特朗普强制退学了？ 5月22日，特朗普对哈佛大学下达了一道行政禁令：禁止哈佛招收国际学生，并要求现有近7000名国际学生必须转学，否则将失去合法身份！ 目前 哈佛大学已向联邦法院提起诉讼 。 与此同时，包括香港科技大学在内的多所高校已主动向受影响学生伸出援手，开设快速录取通道、提供学术 转接支持。 过往特朗普与哈佛等高校的"积怨"较久，这不是哈佛首次被特朗普针对…… 01 特朗普清退全体哈佛留学生！ 全球排名第一的哈佛大学官网上，国际学生申请入口被替换成一则冰冷公告："请立即联系其他院校转学。" 根据哈佛大学的数据， 2024-2025学年，哈佛共有6,793名国际学生，占总学生人数的约27%，他们来自140多个国家和地区，其中大多数在攻读研 究生课程。这些学生每年贡献3.84亿美元学费，支撑3900个就业岗位。 其中本科、研究生和访问学者群体的中国学生约有800-1200人。 特朗普一纸禁令，不仅将重创常春藤学术生态，更将引发数十亿美元经济损失。法新社评论称，这是"美国学术自由史上最黑暗的的星期四"。 02 特朗普的报复 这背后是特朗普和哈佛长期"积怨"爆发。 特朗普重返白宫后，猛烈抨击以哈佛为代表的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment in ultra-high voltage (UHV) new energy base projects primarily consists of three components: UHV transmission lines, peak-shaving power sources, and new energy sources. The profitability of these projects is heavily influenced by electricity price differentials and the capacity utilization of the transmission lines [2][3][4]. Group 1: UHV Transmission Lines - UHV transmission lines are typically funded by the power grid, with some contributions from receiving provinces. The return on investment is mainly derived from transmission fees, which are fixed per kilowatt-hour. The project must achieve at least 80% of its designed capacity to avoid losses, and to meet expected returns, it should exceed 90% [2]. - The transmission fee cannot exceed the regional electricity price differential; for instance, the price difference between Shaanxi (0.34) and Anhui (0.4) is 0.06. If the transmission fee exceeds this differential, the project loses economic viability [2]. Group 2: Peak-Shaving Power Sources - Peak-shaving power sources are primarily coal-fired power plants, typically configured to 50% of the full transmission capacity, with an annual utilization of 5000 hours [3]. Group 3: New Energy Sources - New energy sources, such as wind and solar, are configured based on their annual utilization hours. For example, if the average annual utilization is 2500 hours, the installed capacity should be double that of the peak-shaving coal power [3]. Group 4: Current Issues - The uneven output of new energy sources and the inadequacy of the current pricing mechanism make it challenging for new energy base projects to be profitable. To ensure the design return of new energy projects, it is necessary to reduce the curtailment of wind and solar energy, which in turn affects the utilization hours of peak-shaving coal power and the transmission volume of UHV lines [4]. - If the profitability of peak-shaving coal power and UHV lines is to be maintained, a significant increase in wind and solar capacity is required. This would lead to higher curtailment rates for wind and solar projects, and under the current pricing mechanism, electricity prices are likely to decline, making it difficult for new energy projects to be profitable [4]. Group 5: Energy Storage Consideration - While energy storage could theoretically smooth out the output of wind and solar energy, the question remains: who will bear the costs? [5]

以下文章来源于债券今天有蛋吗 ，作者债券汪汪队 债券今天有蛋吗 . 最及时的债券公众号，每日13:30-14:00更新当日债市变化，买债基必备 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：表舅是养基大户 来源：雪球 今天看到了招商证券做的一个测评 ， 针对的是天弘基金的固收+产品线 ， 文章叫 《 锚定绝对收益目标 》。 从招商证券的这篇文章 ， 正好探讨一下关于固收+基金 ， 控制回撤的问题 ， 我觉得很适合个人投资者朋友 们学习一下 ， 我直接援引一下文章里的一些图片 ， 作为辅助 。 第一 ， 权益市场走强过程中 ， 往往伴随着固收+业务的大发展 。 下图 ， 是天弘旗下固收+基金的年度收益 ， 和全市场的比较 ， 这个图比较有看点的一点在于 ， 天弘的固 收+产品数量 ， 在2022年接近翻倍 ， 而此前的2021年 ， 恰恰是上一轮牛市的高潮 ， 这说明权益转牛推动 固收+业务发展的逻辑 ， 是没问题的 。 | 麦5:天弘旗下固收+美念近十年单年度收益率平均值 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that Return on Equity (ROE) is a more critical indicator for stock selection than growth, as highlighted by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger in their shareholder letters [2][3]. Group 1: Importance of ROE - Companies that can maintain high ROE typically possess long-term competitive advantages, often referred to as "moats," which are essential for future performance [3]. - From a practical investment perspective, in the absence of secondary market pricing, the only goal for shareholders is the return on equity, which will approximate the long-term return rate [3]. - The notion that a lack of growth leads to stagnant stock valuations overlooks the fact that sustainable competitive advantages make it difficult for companies to remain stagnant [3][4]. Group 2: Growth and Valuation - Even in industries perceived to be stagnant, such as liquor and home appliances, companies like Moutai and Meidi have continued to achieve growth and increasing profits over the past decade [3][4]. - The existence of an enduring industry allows for moderate growth driven by improved production efficiency and inflation, which benefits companies in competitive positions [4]. - The ability to predict high growth is complex, as past performance does not guarantee future results, and many high-growth companies have faced sudden downturns [4]. Group 3: Pricing and Investment Strategy - The key to profitability is not merely the increase in valuation but the price at which investments are made; for instance, Gree's PE ratio increased from 6x in 2014 to 17x in 2018, demonstrating that low growth can still yield significant returns if purchased at a low price [5]. - Long-term holders of companies like Moutai have achieved returns close to the net asset return rate, despite the company never trading at 1x PB, indicating that brand and market position are critical value drivers not reflected on the balance sheet [7][8]. - High growth does not always correlate with high ROE, as many companies pursuing aggressive growth strategies do not achieve favorable economic outcomes [8].

特朗普再度挥动关税大棒， 威胁对欧盟商品征收50%关税，此外，特朗普还点名苹果和三星，表示 对不在美国生产的手机制造商征收25%的关 税，并称 将在六月底前对苹果公司和三星征收关税。 此言论也在欧洲金融市场引发震荡，重要股指纷纷下挫。 关税担忧再起，周五美股也全线下挫， 截至收盘，道指跌0.61%，纳指跌1.00%，标普 500指数跌0.67%。 本周，道指累计跌2.47%，标普500指数跌2.61%，纳斯达克指数跌2.48%。 | A HS 港股 | 美股 全球 | 某余 | 期货 曲家 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 亚太市场收盘 | 欧洲市场收盘 | | 北美市场收盘 | | * 恒生指数 | 疆 英国富时 | | ■ 道琼斯 | | 23601.26 | 8718.27 | | 41603.07 | | +56.95 +0.24% | -20.99 -0.24% | | -256.02 -0.61% | | · 上证指数 | 德国DAX | | ■ 纳斯达克 | | 3348.37 | 23623.82 | | 18737.21 | | -31.82 -0.94% | -3 ...

以下文章来源于二马由之 ，作者二马由之 二马由之 . 用逻辑讲投资 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 二马由之 来源：雪球 价值投资者应该何时卖出股票呢 ？ 常规的说法是 1 、 涨多了 ， 股票贵了 ， 因此高抛 ； 3 、 公司基本面有超预期的负面变化 ， 因此卖出 。 俗称割肉 。 那么价值投资会不会因为公司股票下跌而止损呢 ？ 是否因为股票下跌而选择止损一直是区分价值 投资和非价值投资的一个重要标准 。 这里我说一个观点 ， 价值投资者只割肉不止损 。 趋势投资者 ， 技术分析者会因为股票下跌而卖出 ， 这本身是他们投资体系的一部分 。 因此 ， 这类投资者因为下跌而止损是很正常的行为 。 但是价值投资的底层逻辑是低买 ， 高卖 。 因此 ， 因为股票下跌了 ， 更便宜了而卖出是违背了 价值投资的基本原则的 。 那么价值投资者能不能因为股票下跌 ， 而不是基本面恶化卖出股票呢 ？ 能 。 对于价值投资者来 说 ， 这个行为叫做割肉 。 价值投资者为什么会因为股票下跌 ， 而非基本面变化而割肉呢 ？ 其原因是 ， 当股票上涨时 ， 一些人认为自 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the benefits of systematic investment plans (SIPs) or dollar-cost averaging, arguing that it helps manage investment risks and emotions during market fluctuations [2][5][22]. Group 1: Problems Addressed by SIPs - SIPs allow investors to buy regardless of market price fluctuations, preventing the pitfalls of trying to time the market [5][6]. - Investors often hesitate to buy during market downturns, leading to missed opportunities and potential losses [9][12]. - SIPs help manage emotional responses to market volatility, reducing the likelihood of making impulsive decisions during market lows [13][14]. Group 2: Personal Investment Experience - The author shares personal experiences with SIPs, highlighting a case where the investment initially faced a -24% loss but later recovered to -2.9% due to continued investments during market lows [15][19]. - The article discusses specific funds, such as the Huatai-PB Southeast Asia Technology ETF and Manulife India Equity Fund, showcasing their performance and recovery from losses [16][20]. Group 3: Importance of Selecting the Right Assets - The article stresses the necessity of choosing long-term upward-trending assets for SIPs to ensure positive outcomes over time [22][24]. - Historical examples, such as gold and the Nasdaq 100 index, illustrate that long-term investments can yield profits even when purchased at market peaks [26][27]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - Viewing SIPs as a method of accumulating wealth rather than short-term trading can enhance commitment to the investment strategy [28].

对于港股大模型，杜厚良认为，从长期来看， AI有望在本质上改变移动互联网的入口。通过AI技 术的普及应用，移动互联网现有的分配方式或将发生较大转变。 当硅基代码叩响文明之门，当智能浪潮重塑人类想象， AI浪潮正以前所未有的 速度改变着人类认 知世界的方式， 颠覆着传统产业的底层逻辑 ， 更逐浪于资本市场 。 "AI+"的未来还有哪些想象 空间？人形机器人投资的下一阶段焦点在哪？投资者应该如何 从大模型技术发展中寻找机会？ 近日，中欧基金举办了 AI DAY活动。活动邀请了 中欧基金科技战队核心团队、 券商分析师、国 内 AI科学家及产业专家等，分享了当前AI技术发展的最新成果，探讨了 生成式 AI发展趋势及投 资价值，一同解码AI应用的投资机会和无限可能。 中欧基金权益研究部副总监、科技组组长杜厚良： 关注港股大模型应用、国产替代、 3D打印等 作为中欧基金权益研究部副总监、科技组组长，杜厚良认为投资科技一定要立足产业研究，要比 别人更早发现科技产业变化的机会。今年以来，中欧基金科技战队积极主动开展调研，力求挖掘 AI产业的潜在投资机会。 杜厚良介绍，中欧基金科技战队的大部分成员毕业于清华、交大等院校，且兼具 ...

午后突然跳水！ 创业板指领跌 。 截至收盘， 沪指跌0.94% ， 深成指跌0.85% ， 创业板指跌1.18% 。 个股跌多涨少 ， 全市场超4200只个股下跌 。 沪深两市全天成交额1.16万亿 ， 较上个交易日放量529亿 。 板块方面 ， 可控核聚变 、 贵金属 、 创新药 、 维生素等板块涨幅居前 ， 港口 、 游戏 、 算力 、 电力等板块跌幅居前 。 01 午后突然跳水 多只高位股跌停 今日午后，市场突然大调整，早上向好的指数于下午两点之后直接跳水。 从结构上看，大盘蓝筹股是下跌的主要压力，今天早上长江电力就带头下跌，盘中跌幅扩大至2%，中国平安、中信证券、贵州茅台等多只权重股 短线跳水，中国石油、农业银行、中国人寿等股票更是贡献了较大的下跌点数，上证指数跌幅也跟随扩大。 | STEET | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600900 已收盘05-23 15:00:00 北京 | | | | | | 125.21万人加自选 30.49 -0.54 -1.74% | | | | | | 高 31.06 开 30.99 量 85.42万手 | | ...