Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "430" and "531" policies will lead to a decrease in the profitability of new energy projects, resulting in a slowdown in new energy development after the initial rush in early 2025. The marginal impact on coal consumption is expected to diminish, with a potential turning point for coal consumption around 2027 [1]. Group 1: New Energy Development - Over the past decade, new energy has experienced rapid growth, significantly impacting thermal power demand. By the end of 2024, the total installed capacity of wind and solar energy in China is projected to reach 1.4 billion kilowatts, achieving the 2030 target six years ahead of schedule. The share of thermal power generation capacity has decreased from 66.75% in 2015 to 43.88% in 2024 [2]. - The rapid growth of new energy has led to a notable decline in the growth rate of thermal power generation, which is now lagging behind the overall electricity consumption growth rate [2]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "430" policy highlights the increasing pressure on distributed solar energy consumption, with some provinces halting new registrations for distributed solar projects. The profitability of these projects has become highly uncertain, ending the previous model of easy profits from simply installing power stations [3]. - The "531" policy, effective from January 2025, will push new energy into market trading, with settlement prices expected to decrease significantly compared to coal-based benchmark prices. This is likely to result in a substantial decline in new installations of distributed solar energy starting in the second half of 2025 [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The new energy sector is entering a new phase, with the peak of new energy installations likely occurring in 2024. The pressure on thermal power is expected to be greatest in 2025, but with steady growth in electricity demand driven by sectors such as electric vehicles and AI, the pressure on coal consumption is anticipated to ease in 2026, with a potential upward turning point in 2027 [4].

报告导读： 2021-24 年是中国水泥企业出海的提速期，而 2025 年后或迎来水泥企业出 海的分化期，企业机制决定了扩产速度，但内功决定海外盈利兑现的质量。 全球视角：需求定增量，格局定价格。 全球水泥发展历程来看，区域水泥的需求从长期看是由城镇化进程 与人口增速决定，但我们观察到 90 年代以来全球需求增长斜率最高区域（包括中国大陆、中亚、东南 亚、北非等），往往对应的是分散化的产业格局和较为激烈的价格竞争。而欧洲作为全球老牌水泥巨头的 发源地在 70 年代率先完成了城镇化，实现了先竞争、先集中，高度集中的产业格局带动欧洲水泥价格在 水泥需求见顶后，反而迎来了价格的新高。 报告名称：海外水泥的纸黄金与真功夫——海外水泥专题 报告日期：2025.07.08 报告作者： 鲍雁辛 （分析师），登记编号： S 0880513070005 杨冬庭 ( 分析师 ) ，登记编号：S 0880522080004 经营视角：机制定速度，内功定质量。 2021-2024 年间国内水泥企业出海进程加速。水泥企业海外投资 产能从 4503 万吨提升至 8759 万吨，其中民营、外资股东背景的企业及市场化机制较优的国企在扩产期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the steady progress in overseas solid-state battery development, with continuous breakthroughs in product performance and a mass production timeline set for 2026-2030 [1][2][3] Group 2 - Overseas solid-state battery companies are focusing on sulfide technology routes, with energy densities ranging from 301-560 Wh/kg for various companies including Solid Power, QuantumScape, Factorial Energy, and Samsung SDI [1][2] - Solid Power's revenue for 2024 is projected at $20.14 million, a 16% year-on-year increase, with R&D expenses of $73.34 million, up 34% year-on-year; QuantumScape has not yet generated revenue but has R&D expenses of $380 million, a 10% increase year-on-year [2] - Solid Power's sulfide solid-state battery has an energy density of 390 Wh/kg, while QuantumScape's QSE-5 cell reaches 301 Wh/kg with a 10C discharge capability; Factorial Energy's Solstice battery offers a range of 1000 km, and Samsung SDI's silver-carbon negative battery achieves 900 Wh/L with a 9-minute fast charge [2] - Collaboration between battery manufacturers and automakers is deepening, with projects covering technology licensing, production line co-construction, and road testing; Solid Power's batteries are being tested in BMW's i7, while QuantumScape has signed a mass production agreement with Volkswagen's PowerCo [3]

Core Viewpoint - The application scenarios of stablecoins are continuously expanding, with the future scale expected to reach $3.5 trillion [1][2]. Group 1: Application Scenarios - Stablecoins have evolved from their inception in 2014 with USDT, initially focusing on cryptocurrency trading, to various applications including cross-border trade settlements and decentralized finance (DeFi) [1]. - Four main scenarios for stablecoin application have emerged: 1) Cryptocurrency trading, supporting transactions of BTC, ETH, RWA assets, and NFTs [1]. 2) Cross-border payments, enabling point-to-point instant transfers without intermediaries [1]. 3) Consumer payments, integrating stablecoins into the internet finance system for lower-cost and faster transactions [1]. 4) Traditional capital markets, allowing tokenization of assets like foreign exchange and securities, enhancing asset usability and transferability [1]. Group 2: Future Scale Estimation - The future scale of stablecoins is projected to reach $3.5 trillion through four key scenarios: 1) In the cryptocurrency sector, with a neutral market growth of 10%, stablecoins are expected to reach $363.3 billion by 2030, maintaining an 8.22% market share [2]. 2) In cross-border payments, assuming a 20% market share, the demand is estimated at $2.9 trillion [2]. 3) For daily consumer payments, a 10% market share translates to $121.6 billion [2]. 4) In traditional capital markets, under a neutral scenario, stablecoin demand is projected to be $133.3 billion [2].

每周一景： 云南兰坪澜沧江山谷河流村庄风光 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【煤炭】新能源步入下半场，电煤压力最大已过 投资建议： 近年来伴随着新能源装机高增，新能源发电量高速增长，对煤电的挤压效益日益明显，市场担忧在新能源的挤压下未来煤电将进入负增长阶段， 从而导致电煤消费进入下行通道。而我们认为新能源高速发展时代已过，2025年起随着新能源"430、531"新政出台，并且考虑到当前电网巨大的消纳压力 和新能源项目盈利性下降明显，我们判断未来新能源发电将减速，对煤电的边际冲击减弱，我们测算电煤的需求拐点或将在2027年。 新能源步入下半场，电煤已过压力最大时刻，2026年压力缓解，2027年有望迎来向上拐点。 我们认为新能源新政带来的未来现金流确定性下降，将有望促 使新能源装机开始下降，2024年将可能成为历史新能源装机的大顶，也意味着对于火电替代压力最大的在2025年。而展望整体全社会用电量的需求端，随着 近年来用电结构变化，以新能源汽车、AI相关、储能为主导驱动力的第三产业及城乡居民用电成为拉动边际用电量提升的主要方向，有望推动全社会用电量稳 步增长。我们判断随着需求端的稳步增长，与2025年6月开始新能源 ...

Core Insights - The online consumption power of male users in China is increasing, particularly among those under 30, with a notable rise in high-end spending over 2000 yuan, driven by self-indulgent and stress-relief consumption needs in gaming, trendy toys, sports, and technology products [1][3] Group 1: Gaming - Male users account for nearly 70% of the gaming market, with the industry experiencing sustained growth during the summer season [1][3] - In May 2025, a total of 144 game licenses were issued, marking a new monthly high, which is expected to boost search traffic for gaming on platforms like Baidu starting in July [3] Group 2: Trendy Toys - The domestic IP toy market is growing robustly, with sci-fi mecha IPs being particularly popular among male consumers [1][3] - EDC (Everyday Carry) products have emerged as a rapidly growing segment, with 80% of EDC users being male, and sales during the 2025 618 shopping festival saw over a fourfold year-on-year increase [3] Group 3: Sports - Males are the primary audience for sports viewership, and there is a continuous increase in fitness-related demands [1][3] Group 4: Technology Consumption - Young and middle-aged males exhibit dual characteristics of tech-savvy and quality-oriented consumption, with rapid growth in outdoor cameras and gaming consoles [1][3] - By April 2025, the monthly active user (MAU) count for male users in China is projected to reach 634 million, reflecting a 2.2% year-on-year increase [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tactile sensors are a critical bottleneck in the hardware side of general humanoid robots, with significant growth potential as they can permeate from hands to the entire body, leading to a vast market opportunity in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Potential - The global tactile sensor market is projected to grow from $15.33 billion in 2024 to $35.59 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 12.8% [2]. - The market for tactile sensors could reach approximately 1 trillion yuan when humanoid robot production reaches 100 million units, indicating a massive blue ocean opportunity [1][2]. Group 2: Technology Landscape - The main technical routes for tactile sensors include piezoresistive (37% market share) and capacitive (28% market share) technologies, with various players in the market yet to go public [2]. - The tactile sensor industry is characterized by multiple technology routes, with a need for integration of materials, manufacturing, and algorithms to produce flexible tactile sensors suitable for robots [1][2]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The current stage of humanoid robots is at L3 and below, akin to the capabilities of a 4-7 year old child, with tactile sensing primarily focused on dexterous hands [2]. - As the complexity of tasks and application scenarios expand, tactile sensing is expected to extend from hands to arms, legs, torso, and face, indicating substantial growth potential [2].

Core Viewpoint - The market uptrend is expected to continue, supported by technical indicators and optimistic market sentiment [1][2]. Market Indicators - The liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index was 1.19, lower than the previous week (1.36), indicating current market liquidity is 1.19 times above the average level of the past year [2]. - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options decreased to 0.79 from 0.95, reflecting increased investor optimism regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2]. - The five-day average turnover rates for the SSE Composite Index and Wind All A were 0.98% and 1.62%, respectively, maintaining trading activity at 66.75% and 75.52% percentiles since 2005 [2]. Macro Factors - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced slight fluctuations, with weekly increases of 0.05% and 0.12%, respectively [2]. - China's official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, up from the previous value of 49.5 and above the expected 49.3; the Caixin manufacturing PMI for June was 50.4, higher than the previous 48.3 [2]. Technical Analysis - The Wind All A index broke above the SAR indicator on June 24, signaling a buy [2]. - The current market score based on the moving average strength index is 228, placing it in the 88.8% percentile since 2021 [2]. - The sentiment model score is 3 out of 5, with both trend and weighted models indicating positive signals [2]. Market Performance - The SSE 50 index rose by 1.21%, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.54%, the CSI 500 index went up by 0.81%, and the ChiNext index gained 1.5% during the last week [3]. - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 20.0 times, positioned at the 60.1% percentile since 2005 [3]. Factor Crowding Observations - The crowding degree for high earnings growth factors has significantly increased [3]. - The crowding degrees for small-cap factors, low valuation factors, high earnings factors, and high earnings growth factors are 0.66, -0.10, -0.21, and 0.15, respectively [3]. - The industry crowding degrees are relatively high in banking, comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, retail, and non-bank financial sectors, with construction materials and steel showing notable increases [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent increase in the US debt ceiling by $5 trillion, while alleviating immediate debt crisis concerns, may lead to short-term supply shocks in US Treasury bonds, resulting in upward pressure on interest rates [1][3][4] Group 2 - The "Great and Beautiful" Act passed by the US Congress aims to reduce taxes by $4 trillion and cut spending by at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade, which is expected to create a historical high in bond supply that the market needs to absorb [1][2] - Historical context shows that the US has raised the debt ceiling over seventy times since its establishment in 1917, indicating that the debt crisis is more a product of political maneuvering rather than a genuine sovereign credit risk [2][4] - The increase in the debt ceiling temporarily removes the risk of default, but it also leads to significant supply shocks in the Treasury market, with expectations of rising interest rates, particularly if the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4.5% [3][4] - The ongoing trend of increasing fiscal deficits and debt expansion could accumulate risks that may spill over into the global financial market if not addressed fundamentally [4]

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The aviation industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in Q2, with a projected 7% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic and stable domestic ticket prices [1][3][4] - The summer travel season is anticipated to reach its first peak, driven by school holidays, leading to an optimistic supply-demand outlook and an expected rise in both passenger load factor and ticket prices [1][4] - The decline in jet fuel prices by 13% year-on-year in July is expected to positively impact profitability during the summer travel period, as the industry enters a low supply growth era [1][3] Group 2: Oil Shipping Industry - OPEC+ is set to continue increasing production by 550,000 barrels per day in August, which is expected to gradually reflect in the oil shipping demand and performance in the second half of the year [2][4] - The average TCE for VLCC in Q2 is estimated at $42,000, showing a significant improvement compared to Q1, indicating a recovery in the oil shipping sector [3][4] - The oil shipping industry is expected to benefit from the anticipated increase in demand and improved market conditions, alongside the potential for lower oil prices [2][4] Group 3: Highway Transportation - The highway transportation sector is projected to maintain resilient traffic demand, with a 5.8% year-on-year increase in passenger flow and a 2.9% increase in freight volume observed in April and May [3][4] - The ongoing optimization of debt and reduction in financial costs are expected to support steady growth in the performance of highway companies [3][4]