Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a differentiated growth pattern in the medium-term economic landscape, with strong performance in emerging technologies and high-performance storage prices continuing to rise rapidly, while the real estate cycle and durable goods demand remain under pressure [1]. Group 1: Consumer Trends - Service consumption has significantly improved, with domestic ice and snow tourism seeing a notable increase; average ticket prices for flights from Guangzhou to Harbin for New Year's Day 2026 rose approximately 56% compared to November 2025 due to colder weather boosting consumer sentiment [2]. - Movie box office revenues surged, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 326.7% and 355.7%, respectively, driven by the release of blockbuster films [2]. - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities fell by 34.3% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of 31.6%, 33.9%, and 40.7%, respectively, indicating continued pressure on the real estate market [2]. - Durable goods consumption shows signs of overextension, with manufacturers significantly lowering production expectations; daily retail sales of passenger vehicles continue to decline [2]. Group 2: Technology and Manufacturing - The technology hardware sector remains strong, driven by AI infrastructure investments; prices for high-performance DRAM storage (DDR4/DDR5) increased by 13.3% and 8.2% month-on-month, respectively [3]. - The number of domestic game licenses increased by 58.9% year-on-year in November 2025, contributing to a favorable supply environment for AI software applications [3]. - Construction demand remains weak, with slight price recoveries in steel due to reduced operating rates in blast furnaces, while prices for glass and cement continue to face downward pressure [3]. - Manufacturing sectors, including automotive and chemicals, are experiencing declines in operating rates and a decrease in hiring intentions [3]. Group 3: Logistics and Transportation - Long-distance travel demand has decreased month-on-month, although it remains strong year-on-year; the Baidu migration index fell by 3.8% month-on-month but increased by 18.5% year-on-year [4]. - Freight logistics have also seen a month-on-month decline, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volumes decreasing by 0.2% and increasing by 0.7%, respectively [4]. - Shipping rates for dry bulk and refined oil have risen significantly, driven by increased demand from iron ore and crude oil production [4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the pre-training Scaling Law remains valid, with Google's Gemini demonstrating significant advancements in AI capabilities, particularly in multi-modal reasoning and user data integration, which strengthens its competitive edge in the AI ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: Model and Technology - Gemini has optimized multi-modal capabilities, achieving a screen understanding score of 72.7% in the ScreenSpot-Pro test, significantly outperforming competitors like GPT-5.1 (3.5%) and Claude Sonnet (36.2%), indicating its potential for GUI operations [2]. - The advancements in Gemini are attributed to substantial investments in pre-training, validating the effectiveness of Google's approach to AI development [1]. Group 2: TPU Ecosystem - Google has accelerated the optimization of its TPU ecosystem, enhancing external usability by supporting PyTorch and investing in open inference ecosystems, which improves TPU's market competitiveness [3]. - TPUv7 shows a Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) advantage, being 44% lower than GB200 servers for internal use and 30% lower for external leasing compared to GB200, and 41% lower than GB300 [3]. - The TPU's role is seen as crucial for building a comprehensive AI ecosystem rather than merely selling the hardware, aiming for optimal cost and efficiency in cloud services [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The long-term competitive landscape suggests that TPU is unlikely to completely disrupt NVIDIA's GPU dominance but may serve as a complementary solution for specific customer segments [3]. - NVIDIA's established supply chain advantages and the appeal of its GPU's out-of-the-box usability for small to medium customers present challenges for TPU's market penetration [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Q4 style rotation model indicates signals for small-cap and growth stocks, with a focus on sectors such as electric equipment and renewable energy for December [1][2]. Style Rotation Model - The Q4 style rotation model has issued signals favoring small-cap stocks, with a comprehensive score of -1 for the dual-driven rotation strategy as of September 30, 2025 [3]. - The value-growth style rotation model shows a comprehensive score of -3 for the dual-driven rotation strategy, indicating a preference for growth stocks [4]. Industry Rotation Insights - In November, the composite factor strategy yielded an excess return of -0.58%, while the single-factor long strategy had an excess return of -0.83% [4]. - For December, the single-factor long strategy recommends bullish sectors including banking, construction, non-bank financials, and electric equipment and renewable energy. The composite factor strategy suggests bullish sectors such as telecommunications, comprehensive finance, computer technology, electric equipment and renewable energy, and utilities [4].

Group 1: Style Rotation Insights - The Q4 style rotation model indicates signals for small-cap and growth stocks [2][3] - The dual-driven rotation strategy for Q4 has a composite score of -1, predicting a focus on small-cap stocks [3] - The value-growth style rotation model shows a composite score of -3, suggesting a preference for growth stocks [4] Group 2: Industry Rotation Analysis - In November, the composite factor strategy yielded an excess return of -0.58%, while the single-factor long strategy had an excess return of -0.83% [4] - For December, the recommended long industries based on single-factor strategies include banking, construction, non-bank financials, and electric equipment & new energy [4] - The composite factor strategy recommends long positions in telecommunications, comprehensive finance, computers, electric equipment & new energy, and utilities [4] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Sector Performance - In November 2025, the pharmaceutical sector underperformed the broader market, with the SW pharmaceutical and biological index declining by 3.6% compared to a 1.7% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [7] - The relative premium level of the pharmaceutical sector is currently at 72.6%, indicating a normal valuation level compared to all A-shares [7] - In the Hong Kong market, the pharmaceutical sector performed similarly to the market, with the Hang Seng Medical Care index at -0.1% and the biotechnology sector at +0.4% [7] Group 4: U.S. Pharmaceutical Market Trends - In November 2025, the U.S. pharmaceutical sector outperformed the broader market, with the S&P Healthcare Select Sector Index rising by 9.1% compared to a 0.1% increase in the S&P 500 [8] - Notable gainers in the S&P 500 healthcare component included Eli Lilly (+25%) and Solventum (+23%) [8]

Group 1 - The global bond market is focusing on three main themes: European fiscal risks, a data vacuum in the US, and credit improvement in emerging markets [1] - The European Central Bank warns of increasing sovereign debt supply pressure and a shrinking scale of central bank bond purchases, leading to rising interest rate risks [1] - The probability of a rate cut in December in the US has dropped from 95% to 50% due to government shutdown, creating policy uncertainty in the market [1] Group 2 - Major bond yields globally have generally declined, with US long-term yields falling more than short-term yields, exemplified by a 5.2 basis point drop in the 30-year yield [1] - The UK 10-year bond yield saw a significant drop of 9.34 basis points, leading declines in developed markets [1] - Credit spreads have compressed significantly, with investment-grade corporate bonds dropping by 11 basis points and high-yield bonds decreasing by 29 basis points to 6.58% [1] Group 3 - The issuance of Dim Sum bonds totaled 41, with a scale of 95.383 billion yuan, where central bank bills accounted for 47.2% of the issuance [2] - The overall issuance structure is dominated by bank financial bonds, with urban investment bonds' coupon rates concentrated in the 5-7% range [2] - Offshore RMB bonds show a flattening characteristic with short-end yields rising and long-end yields falling, while the sovereign bond 10-year spread narrowed from 8.95 basis points to 5.19 basis points [2] Group 4 - The global bond market is experiencing a stable credit environment with no major sovereign rating adjustments or systemic defaults [3] - The debt of high-risk US companies increased from $271 billion to $296 billion, a rise of 9.2%, indicating accumulating refinancing pressure [3] - The net outflow from high-yield bond funds was $333 million, and from leveraged loan funds was $89 million, indicating pressure on liquidity [3] Group 5 - The strategy suggests focusing on 5-7 year medium to long-term bonds to capture the benefits of a steepening yield curve and rolling down yields, while maintaining a defensive position in AAA/AA+ rated securities [4] - The preferred regional allocation includes US investment-grade corporate bonds and emerging market sovereign debt, while caution is advised for European bonds [4]

Group 1 - The article provides an overview of the economic development, cement supply and demand situation, competitive landscape, profitability, and trends in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [1] - The DRC is a resource-rich country with a population exceeding 100 million and a land area of 2.3454 million square kilometers, making it the second largest country in Africa [2] - Despite a low economic development level with a per capita GDP of just over $600, the DRC has significant mineral resources, including 75 million tons of copper (15% of the world's total), 4.5 million tons of cobalt (50% of the world's total), and 30 million tons of tantalum and niobium (80% of the world's total) [2] Group 2 - High inflation and rapid currency depreciation have led to a loose foreign exchange management system, allowing the free circulation of the US dollar [3] - Cement production and sales have been growing rapidly, but there is still a shortage; the per capita cement production in 2023 is only 23 kg, significantly below the average in Sub-Saharan Africa, indicating substantial growth potential [3] - Even with increased production, there is projected to be a shortfall of 780,000 tons in 2024, with an expanding trend in shortages for 2025 and 2026 [3] Group 3 - The DRC has only five cement plants, resulting in a favorable competitive landscape [4] - Cement prices in the DRC are among the highest in Africa, ranging from $170 to $400 per ton, influenced by the distance from production facilities [4] - Despite high prices, companies like CILU and PPC Barnet are experiencing losses due to unstable production, high electricity and transportation costs, and elevated financial expenses [4]

报告导读： 中国股市进入击球区， 2025 年 12 月 -2026 年 2 月是中国政策、流动性、 基本面向上共振的窗口期。布出先手棋，增持中国市场，做多跨年行情。看好科技 / 券商 / 消费。 市场风险已大幅释放，中国股市进入击球区。 与当下谨慎共识不同的是，国泰海通策略坚决看好中国市场前景，股指进入击球区： 1 ）市场调整的时间和空 间已与历次牛市主线回调相当，恐慌抛售杀出交易风险释放。 2 ）市场对年末经济工作会议讨论不多，考虑眼下走弱的增长现实和十五五开年经济增速的重 要性，政策窗口期临近市场有望建立新预期。 3 ）中金公司合并标志资本市场改革加快纵深， 11 月 21 日 16 只硬科技 ETF 迅速获批隐含监管层稳定市场 的决心与行动部署。机会总在恐慌中出现，我们认为，中国股市将逐步企稳与展开跨年攻势，上升的空间还很大，眼下是增持的良机。 中国资本市场处于大发展的周期，股指向上还有很大空间。 过去造成股市估值折价的因素已消解（担忧中美冲突 / 经济能见度下降 / 资产负债收缩）， 2025 年以来对外更自信 / 对内更稳定、尾部风险下降 / 人民币资产逐步企稳，意味着中国资本市场处于估值回升和大 ...

报告导读： 上周全球指数明显反弹，股指波动率回落，全球科技板块领涨。 资金面上， 戴利等联储官员支持 12 月降息， 12 月联储降息预期回升。基本面上， AI 泡沫担忧暂 缓，港股美股科技盈利预期均上修，欧美经济高频景气预期有所回落。 市场表现：上周全球市场反弹。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 +3.3% ，其中 MSCI 发达市场 +3.4% 、 MSCI 新兴市场 +2.2% 。债市方面，中债利率上行，美 债利率下降。大宗方面，银价涨跌幅居前，天然气跌幅居前。汇率方面，美元贬，英镑升，日元升，人民币升。上周全球科技板块明显反弹，材料、工业、金 融板块涨幅也居前。 交投情绪：上周欧股成交放量，美股 / 亚股缩量，股指波动率回落。 从成交看，上周英股、德股、法股成交上升，美股、日股、韩股、港股与 A 股成交下 降。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比上升、处历史偏低位，美股投资者情绪上升、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股、欧股、日股、美股波动率下 降。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周上升。 盈利预期：上周港股美股科技盈利预期均上修。 横向对比来看，上周港股 2025 年盈利预期边际变化表现最优 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of the Doubao mobile assistant by ByteDance marks a significant advancement in integrating AI capabilities into mobile operating systems, transitioning AI from application-level to system-level functionality [1][2][3]. Group 1: Product Overview - The Doubao mobile assistant is a system-level service that deeply integrates the Doubao large model into the operating system, enhancing user interaction and experience through advanced AI capabilities [2][3]. - The assistant can be activated via voice commands, side buttons, or Doubao Ola Friend headphones, allowing for more convenient user interactions [3]. - The Doubao large model excels in reasoning, visual understanding, image creation, video generation, and voice recognition, achieving top-tier performance in various assessments [2][3]. Group 2: Functional Capabilities - The Doubao mobile assistant can perform complex tasks across multiple applications, such as ticket booking, product ordering, and file downloading, by simulating user actions like clicks and swipes [3]. - It features a Pro mode that utilizes memory data and enhanced reasoning capabilities to assist users in completing intricate tasks [3]. Group 3: Market Strategy - ByteDance aims to collaborate with multiple smartphone manufacturers to integrate the Doubao mobile assistant into various brand models, rather than developing its own smartphone [3]. - The assistant is currently available for developers and tech enthusiasts on the Nubia M153 prototype, priced at 3499 yuan, facilitating the product's market entry and commercial pathways [1][3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the outlook for domestic inflation in 2026, focusing on the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends, highlighting the need for effective fiscal policies to stimulate demand and support price recovery [2][3][4]. Group 1: Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI has recently returned to the 1% range, indicating a positive signal, but this is attributed to specific factors rather than a broad recovery in domestic demand [2]. - The sustainability of "old momentum" is questioned, with expectations for increased fiscal support in 2026, particularly towards the service sector, but concerns about diminishing multiplier effects are raised [2][3]. - The direction of the price base is contingent on effective fiscal spending to create a positive demand cycle, emphasizing the need for structural changes in fiscal policy rather than mere continuation of existing measures [3]. Group 2: 2026 Inflation Projections - It is anticipated that the core CPI will shift focus from physical consumption driven by "trade-in" policies in 2025 to the recovery elasticity of "service CPI" in 2026, dependent on effective domestic demand policies [4]. - The PPI is expected to experience a recovery influenced by the interplay between real estate sector challenges and supply-side reforms, with potential for gradual improvements as policies are implemented [4].