报告导读： 2025H1 机械行业景气回升，半导体设备、工程机械、锂电设备、风电零部 件、出口消费链的盈利能力均有增长。人形机器人等科技驱动型行业和工程机械等内需驱 动型行业景气度预期维持高位，建议关注：人形机器人、工程机械。新能源行业"反内 卷"共识形成，光伏设备、锂电设备、风电零部件有望由价格竞争转向价值竞争。 2025 年机械行业整体景气抬升。 截至 2025 年二季度末， A 股机械行业上市公司共 546 家， 2025H1 共实现收入 1.0 万亿元 /yoy+6.7% ，归母净利润 756.4 亿 元 /yoy+167.7% ， 毛 利 率 22.6%/yoy+0.1pct , 净 利 率 7.9%/yoy+0.9pct ， ROE4.2% ， 资 产 负 债 率 54.0% ； 分 季 度 看 ， 2025Q1/2025Q2 分 别 实 现 营 收 4,743.7 亿 元 /5,676.8 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 8.0%/5.7% ， 实 现 归 母 净 利 润 337.5 亿 元 /421.5 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 19.5%/17.9% ，毛利率 22.5%/22.7% ，净利率 ...

报告导读： 四类基金销售费用均做调降，新规预计将推动基金销售渠道的头部集中，同时 买方投顾模式也有望进一步发展。 事件： 2025 年 9 月 5 日，证监会发布关于就《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见的通知。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 销售费用降费落地，买方投顾空间凸显；报告日期：2025.09.07 报告作者： 刘欣琦（分析师），登记编号：S0880515050001 王思玥（分析师），登记编号：S0880525070022 孙坤（分析师），登记编号：S0880523030001 重要提醒 新规对东方财富和同花顺的业绩影响有限。 新规未对 C 端客户服务费作调降，且基金代销业务在东方财富和同花顺的收入占比有限（ 2024 年报占比分别为 19% 和 4.5% ）。 投资建议： 推荐投顾业务能力更强券商。 风险提示： 政策推出进度不及预期。 报告来源 四类基金销售费用均做调降，包括申（认）购费下调，赎回费归属于基金资产、 1 年以上持有期销售服务费免收。 1 ） 申（认）购费下调上限 ， 新规要求 申（认）购费中股票型 / 混合型 / 债券 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the emergence of a new consumption era characterized by supply-demand misalignment and marketing support driving explosive growth in consumer sectors [3]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The new consumption era is marked by a significant shift in consumer behavior and preferences, necessitating innovative marketing strategies to capture market share [3]. - The report highlights the importance of understanding consumer trends and adapting to the evolving landscape to leverage investment opportunities [3]. Group 2: Value Proposition - The research serves as a foundation for investment decisions, with a focus on identifying key stocks that align with the emerging consumer trends [4]. - The company aims to create value through in-depth analysis and strategic recommendations tailored to the current market dynamics [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that UBTECH has secured a significant contract worth 250 million yuan for humanoid robot products and solutions, marking it as the largest contract in the global humanoid robot sector to date, indicating the early commercialization phase of the humanoid robot industry [1][2] - The recent order from UBTECH is seen as an important milestone in the commercialization of the humanoid robot industry, with a focus on short-term industry fluctuations driven by events and long-term attention on quality companies with order certainty and mass production capabilities [2][3] Group 2 - UBTECH's new order includes the Walker S2 humanoid robot, which features an autonomous hot-swappable battery system, and the company plans to initiate delivery of this contract within the year [2] - Tesla has released its fourth chapter of the "Secret Master Plan," emphasizing sustainable development and the integration of hardware and software to create a safer and cleaner world, with a focus on the role of humanoid robots in redefining labor and allowing humans to focus on preferred activities [3] - Tesla's new compensation plan for CEO Elon Musk includes potential stock grants worth approximately $975 billion, contingent on achieving operational milestones such as delivering 20 million vehicles and 1 million robots [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole meeting indicated a dovish shift from Powell, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September due to ongoing economic slowdown, although the pace and extent of cuts remain uncertain due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1]. Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing marginal slowdown, with July durable goods orders showing a significant year-on-year decline and negative month-on-month growth. The Markit manufacturing PMI rose in August, but the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell. Additionally, refinery utilization rates slightly decreased, and steel production continued to decline year-on-year [3]. - In Europe, economic and inflation indicators are stabilizing, with the Eurozone GDP showing a slowdown in Q2 2025. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone and EU decreased in July, while the CPI in August showed a slight year-on-year increase, with core CPI remaining stable [3]. Policy Insights - In the U.S., weak non-farm payroll data reinforces expectations for interest rate cuts, while Trump's narrowing of the Fed chair candidate list raises concerns about the Fed's independence. In Europe, the ECB may pause rate cuts in the short term, and the euro could have appreciation potential despite political factors. The Bank of Japan maintains its rate hike path but warns of tariff risks, with the next rate cut expected in late 2025 or early 2026 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current high trading heat in thematic investments, with a shift from technology themes to new energy themes, highlighting the performance of sectors like lithium batteries and solid-state batteries while noting a pullback in military and AI-related themes [1]. Group 1: Thematic Trading Overview - The average daily trading volume of hot themes was 1.177 billion yuan, showing a week-on-week decline, while the average turnover rate reached a new high of 5.4% for the year [1]. - New energy themes such as lithium batteries, inverters, and energy storage saw significant increases, with overall net inflows into these sectors [1]. - Military-related themes experienced substantial pullbacks, particularly in ground armaments and commercial aerospace [1]. Group 2: Anti-Competition Measures - The government is accelerating the comprehensive rectification of "involution" competition, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, to promote high-quality development [2]. - The renewable energy sector is witnessing a significant increase in new installations, with the share of power generation reaching nearly 40% [2]. - Recommendations include focusing on industries facing issues with excessive capacity and chaotic price competition, such as photovoltaic, energy storage, and wind power [2]. Group 3: Solid-State Batteries - The industrialization process of solid-state batteries is accelerating, with new applications emerging in humanoid robots and low-altitude economies [3]. - The energy density of the newly launched "Longquan No. 2" solid-state battery by Yiwei Lithium Energy reaches 300 Wh/kg, targeting high-end applications [3]. - By 2030, the shipment volume of solid-state batteries in China is expected to exceed 65 GW, indicating a rapid acceleration in industrialization and large-scale deployment [3]. Group 4: AI Applications - China's AI industry is entering a phase of large-scale commercialization and value creation, with a government goal for over 70% penetration of new intelligent terminals by 2027 [4]. - The trend towards universal access and intelligent equity is driving significant infrastructure investment in computing power [4]. - Recommendations include focusing on application companies benefiting from model efficiency improvements and cost reductions across various sectors [4]. Group 5: Embodied Intelligence - The robotics industry is transitioning from "technical exploration" to "scale commercialization," with significant advancements in product launches and financing [4]. - The domestic robotics sector is poised for rapid development, supported by a comprehensive supply chain and application scenarios [4]. - Recommendations include focusing on core components benefiting from technological upgrades and manufacturers capable of large-scale production [4].

Macro Analysis - The August non-farm payroll data in the U.S. showed a significant miss with only 22,000 jobs added, falling short of market expectations. Additionally, the combined job additions for June and July were revised down by 21,000, marking the first negative job growth since December 2020 [3][4] - The U.S. labor market is characterized by a fragile balance, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a stable average weekly hours worked. However, the proportion of long-term unemployed individuals is rising, indicating a challenging job market for those who lose their jobs [3][4] - Historical seasonal trends suggest that August non-farm payrolls are typically weak but may be revised upward in subsequent months. Current unemployment claims data has not shown significant deterioration, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could support the labor market [3][4] Overseas Strategy - The ongoing competition in the food delivery sector has begun to impact the earnings of major Hong Kong-listed internet companies, with a reported cumulative net profit growth of 4.1% for H1 2025 compared to 10.0% for H1 2024. The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a growth rate of 21.6% for H1 2025, down from 61.5% in the previous year [10][11] - Despite the challenges faced by the retail sector, other segments such as technology hardware, materials, and pharmaceuticals have shown strong performance in their mid-year reports. The overall earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks have been adjusted downward, particularly in the consumer discretionary sector, while materials and technology sectors have seen upward revisions [10][11] - The second half of 2025 may present a turning point for Hong Kong stocks, with the potential for improved earnings expectations as major internet companies increase investments in AI and as domestic policies support the market. The narrative may shift from the food delivery competition to AI empowerment, with foreign capital potentially returning due to interest rate cuts [11][12] Non-Bank Financials - The recent draft regulations on fund sales fees propose reductions across four categories, including lower subscription fees and the elimination of service fees for holdings over one year. The new maximum subscription fees are set at 0.8% for equity funds, 0.5% for mixed funds, and 0.3% for bond funds, compared to current averages of 1.22%, 1.38%, and 0.58% respectively [17][18] - The new regulations are expected to encourage longer holding periods for investors and promote the development of buy-side advisory services. The impact on major fund distribution platforms is anticipated to be limited, as the overall revenue from fund sales is a small portion of their total income [18][19]

Semiconductor Sector Dynamics - The world's first full-band 6G chip has been released [1] - OmniVision Technologies has launched the high-voltage isolation driver chip ORD110x [1] - AMD has officially released the Ryzen 5 9500F [1] Automotive Electronics Sector Dynamics - Hesai has secured a global exclusive lidar order from Motional [1] - Pony.ai has reached a strategic cooperation with Qatar National Transport Company [1] - Qualcomm and BMW Group have jointly launched a driver assistance system [1] AI Sector Dynamics - UBTECH has won the largest global contract for humanoid robots [1] - XianGong Intelligence has partnered with Stardust Intelligence to promote the large-scale application of humanoid robots in industrial and logistics scenarios [1] - The first large-scale reinforcement learning framework for embodied intelligence has been open-sourced [1] Metaverse Sector Dynamics - Oculens is set to unveil multiple new smart glasses [1] - Rivet has secured a $195 million contract with the U.S. Army to provide XR technology support for command systems [1] - VITRUE has raised a total of $100 million in two rounds of Series B financing [1]

Market Overview - The market is expected to continue its upward trend next week, with the liquidity shock indicator for the CSI 300 index at 0.77, lower than the previous week's 1.26, indicating current market liquidity is 0.77 standard deviations above the average level over the past year [2] - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF options has increased to 0.80 from 0.66, reflecting a rise in investor caution regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2] - The average turnover rates for the Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All A are at 1.47% and 2.25%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity compared to historical levels [2] Economic Indicators - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates saw weekly increases of 0.66% and 0.68%, respectively [2] - The official manufacturing PMI for China in August was reported at 49.3, slightly below the previous value of 49.7 but above the consensus expectation of 49.25; the S&P Global China Manufacturing PMI was at 50.5, up from 49.5 [2] Technical Analysis - The SAR indicator for the Wind All A index has shown a downward breakout, while the sentiment model has issued a negative signal [2] - The moving average strength index currently scores 211, placing it in the 77.0% percentile for 2023 [2] - The sentiment model score is at 0 (out of 5), indicating a negative trend signal [2] Market Performance - For the week of September 1-5, the SSE 50 index fell by 1.15%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.81%, and the CSI 500 index dropped by 1.85%, while the ChiNext index rose by 2.35% [3] - The overall market PE (TTM) stands at 21.9 times, which is in the 73.9% percentile since 2005 [3] Factor Analysis - The small-cap factor's congestion level remains stable at 0.68, while the low valuation factor is at -0.66, and the high profitability factor is at -0.23 [4] - The high profitability growth factor has a congestion level of 0.25 [4] Industry Analysis - The congestion levels for the comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, power equipment, and machinery equipment industries are relatively high, with notable increases in the congestion levels for power equipment and comprehensive sectors [5]

报告导读： 上周住房成交回落。9月5日深圳市出台进一步优化调整房地产政策，放松力度 大于京沪，这将有助于引入包括外地购买力在内的市场需求。维持行业"增持"评级。 2025年8月35城月度库存出清周期环比继续回升 ：35城2025年8月可售面积为31387万平，环比上个月0.64%，同比-4.42%。35城2025年8月库存出清周期（按 12个月月均计算）为22.09个月，环比上个月1.89%，同比去年-4.91%。 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 上周大中城市成交回落。 9月5日深圳市发布《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》。我们认为深圳政策的放松力度大于北京、上海，有助于引 入包括外地购买力在内的市场需求，预计全年市场"止跌回稳"的趋势不变。维持行业"增持"评 ...