Group 1 - In Q2 2025, actively managed equity public funds continued to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in their portfolios rising to 20% [1] - The concentration of holdings among actively managed public funds decreased, indicating a shift towards mid and small-cap stocks in Hong Kong [1] - The investment strategy involved increasing allocations to both growth assets like pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors, as well as dividend-paying assets such as non-bank financials and banks [1] Group 2 - Passive index funds also saw continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with approximately 280 billion yuan flowing in during Q2 2025, although at a slower rate compared to Q1 [2] - The total inflow through the Hong Kong Stock Connect for public funds in the first half of 2025 reached nearly 200 billion yuan, with a projected total for the year between 300 billion and 450 billion yuan [2] - The potential for further inflows remains significant, with an estimated theoretical allocation space of about 300 billion yuan for actively managed public funds [2] Group 3 - The momentum for southbound capital inflows is recovering, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may outperform A-shares in the second half of the year [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to become a key focus, driven by advancements in AI and easing of trade restrictions between China and the US [3] - Other sectors such as high-dividend stocks, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are also highlighted as areas of interest for investment in the latter half of the year [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is an adjustment in tactical asset allocation, recommending an overweight position in Chinese equities, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks, a market weight in Japanese stocks, and an underweight position in government bonds [1][2][3] - The improvement in market risk appetite is driving the pricing of major asset classes, with equities outperforming safe-haven assets, indicating a preference for risk assets over bonds [1][2] - Factors supporting the performance of Chinese assets include stable total policy expectations, increased enthusiasm for technology breakthroughs and emerging industries, and a focus on capital market development by the government [2][3] Group 2 - The tactical allocation view for A-shares has been upgraded to overweight due to the high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value of Chinese equity assets [2] - The tactical allocation view for US stocks has also been upgraded to overweight, driven by improved market risk appetite and a more favorable outlook on US trade policies following the US-Japan tariff agreement [2][3] - The tactical allocation view for Japanese stocks has been adjusted to market weight, as concerns over Japan's export trade have decreased, although inflationary pressures remain a consideration [3] Group 3 - The tactical allocation view for government bonds has been downgraded to underweight due to multiple factors including improved market risk appetite and ongoing redemption pressures, which are expected to negatively impact bond prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is the decline in the risk-free interest rate, which will lead to an overall increase in the valuation of A/H shares [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Valuation Logic - The main contradiction in market expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to the decline in discount rates, particularly the risk-free interest rate [2]. - The high opportunity cost over the past three years has hindered investors' willingness to enter the market [2]. Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical examples from Japan and the United States show that when interest rates fall to a certain level, investor interest shifts from fixed-income products to stocks and equity products [3]. - In China, each major market rally has been accompanied by a decline in risk-free interest rates, leading to increased capital inflow into the stock market [4]. Current Market Conditions - The current environment indicates that the conditions for a new round of capital inflow into the Chinese stock market are forming, driven by the decline in long-term bond yields [4]. - The anticipated decline in risk-free rates will likely lead to a broad-based increase in valuations across A/H shares, benefiting both blue-chip and growth stocks [5]. Future Outlook - The research suggests a strategic bullish outlook on China, emphasizing the importance of recognizing the shift in the main contradiction affecting market expectations [2][5].

Core Insights - OpenAI is expected to release GPT-5 in August, indicating rapid advancements in AI technology [1][2] - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) is taking place in Shanghai, showcasing significant developments in AI [2] - Companies are increasingly integrating AI into various sectors, including finance, marketing, and customer service, highlighting the broad application potential of AI technologies [1][2] Group 1: AI Developments - Meta plans to invest $100 billion in building a new generation of AI data centers and has established a "Super Intelligence Lab" [2] - OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Agent, which features multi-tool integration capabilities for end-to-end task execution [2] - Alibaba has released an open-source inference model Qwen3-2507, which matches the performance of top international closed-source models [2] Group 2: Industry Applications - AI is gradually being implemented in securities research and advisory, banking credit, marketing channels, insurance agent empowerment, small business ordering and marketing, and consumer finance risk control and customer service [1] - The brokerage industry is expected to see significant growth in intelligent research and advisory services, with recommendations for leading companies that develop specialized models and related products [1] - The consumer finance sector is anticipated to rapidly adopt intelligent customer service, marketing, and risk control applications [1] Group 3: Company Initiatives - Tonghuashun has launched new AI features, integrating large models to support stock selection, analysis, and inquiries [3] - Qifu Technology has been approved as one of the first members of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's AI Standardization Technical Committee, recognizing its contributions to AI in financial security [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of China Fusion Company marks a significant transition from experimental research to engineering and commercial application in fusion energy, demonstrating a key leap for the fusion industry cluster development in China [1][2]. Group 1: Company Establishment and Investment - China Fusion Company was officially established on July 22, 2025, in Shanghai, with a total investment of 11.492 billion yuan from seven units, including China National Nuclear Corporation and China Petroleum Kunlun Capital [2]. - The company will focus on the engineering and commercialization of fusion energy, utilizing the magnetic confinement Tokamak technology [2]. - China Fusion Company has signed a deepening cooperation agreement with several institutions, including Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Shanghai Electric Group, to promote collaborative development within the fusion industry chain [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Development and Technological Advancements - Shanghai is actively promoting the fusion industry cluster, emphasizing the integration of innovation elements from enterprises, universities, and research institutions to accelerate the commercialization of fusion technology [3]. - Shanghai Superconductor has achieved breakthroughs in high-temperature superconducting core technology, holding over 80% market share for domestic and international fusion reactor supplies [3]. - The establishment of the fusion innovation consortium will enhance the density of technological innovation and accelerate the development of a globally influential fusion energy innovation hub [3]. Group 3: Global Context and Future Outlook - The global fusion industry is thriving, with at least 45 commercial fusion companies and cumulative investments of approximately 7 billion USD, with 80% of surveyed companies expecting to supply power to the grid in the 2030s [4]. - China has validated the feasibility of fusion reactors through national research projects and plans to start the BEST project in 2025, aiming for its first power supply to the grid by 2030 [4]. - The role of state capital in Shanghai is crucial for encouraging social capital to foster innovation in the upstream and downstream sectors, potentially shortening the growth cycle of the fusion industry [4].

本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 法律声明 ...

二季度债券型基金规模显著回升，主动纯债与指数基金贡献明显。 2025 年二季度以来，受益于国内货币 条件的边际宽松，叠加外部关税扰动下风险偏好收敛所形成的共振，债券型基金规模显著回升，在管规模 相较一季度增长 0.85 万亿至 10.9 万亿元，占全部公募基金比重约 32% 。得益于 5 月双降政策及 6 月 1.4 万亿买断式逆回购的落地，机构对于债券的配置意愿转向积极，与此同时伴随 8 只基准做市信用债 ETF 被纳入质押库，以及债市科技板升温下有关科创债 ETF 的预期不断提升，信用债 ETF 规模逐步壮 大。因而在二季度，主动纯债与指数债基规模增长贡献明显，两者分别较一季度增长超 4400/2900 亿 元。而固收 + 内部则出现了一定的分化，相对低波的一级债基环比增长 831 亿元，二级债基与可转债基 金则分别增长了 390/-32 亿元。 报告导读： ETF 规模占比增加，中长债基久期与杠杆均显著提升。 吴宇擎（研究助理），登记编号：S0880516050001 重要提醒 久期迭创新高，杠杆协同发力。 二季度尤其是 6 月以来，债券基金久期显著拉升。截至 Q2 末，短债与 中长债基金（剔除摊余成本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a slowdown in price decline, which may lead to a more stable competitive environment. The focus on leading e-commerce express companies is expected to enhance their market share and catalyze valuation recovery opportunities, while the timing for cyclical bottoming in express delivery services is also favorable [1][3][4]. Industry Overview - In June 2025, the total express delivery volume increased by 15.8% year-on-year, with a total of 16.87 billion packages expected to be delivered by the end of the month. The second quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year growth of 17.3%, driven by e-commerce promotions and convenient return policies [1][2]. - The express delivery industry is projected to maintain a growth rate exceeding 8% for the entire year of 2025, surpassing the predictions made by the postal administration [1]. Company Performance - In June 2025, the business volume growth rates for major listed companies were as follows: SF Express +31.8%, YTO Express +19.3%, Yunda Express +7.4%, and Shentong Express +11.1%. For Q2 2025, the growth rates were +31.2%, +21.8%, +11.2%, and +16.0% respectively [1][2]. - The single-package revenue for the four major companies in June 2025 showed declines: SF Express -13.3%, YTO Express -6.7%, Yunda Express -4.5%, and Shentong Express -1.0%. In Q2 2025, the declines were -13.7%, -6.3%, -5.4%, and -2.5% respectively [3]. Market Concentration - The concentration of the express delivery industry continues to increase, with the CR8 index reaching 87.0 in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7. The market shares for major companies in June 2025 were SF Express 8.7%, YTO Express 15.6%, Yunda Express 12.9%, and Shentong Express 12.9% [2]. Pricing Trends - The express delivery industry's revenue grew by 9.0% year-on-year in June 2025, while the single-package revenue decreased by 5.8%. In Q2 2025, the revenue growth was 9.3%, with a single-package revenue decline of 6.8%. The narrowing of the price decline indicates a potential easing of price competition [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The increasing focus on "involution" competition in China is expected to accelerate the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, drawing lessons from overseas experiences in the U.S., Japan, and Europe to reshape industry dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Anti-Involution Policies - Since the second half of 2024, China's macro policies have increasingly addressed "involution" competition, with significant meetings highlighting the need for industry self-discipline and the prevention of "malicious competition" [4][10]. - The essence of the current "anti-involution" policies is not to suppress market competition but to promote a transition from inefficient, disorderly expansion to sustainable, high-quality growth through institutional restructuring and incentive mechanism reform [4][15]. Group 2: U.S. Strategies - The U.S. government actively encourages mergers and acquisitions to force outdated capacities out of the market, leading to an oligopolistic competition structure that mitigates intense rivalry [5][23]. - The U.S. has shifted labor-intensive industries overseas, alleviating high domestic costs while promoting high-tech industries domestically, thus achieving a restructuring of the value chain [5][25]. - A series of innovation policies have been implemented to guide industry upgrades, enhancing market competitiveness through sustained research and technological advancements [5][26]. Group 3: Japanese Approaches - Japanese companies have accelerated their overseas expansion through "grouping out," supported by government policies that reduce risks associated with international operations [6][33]. - The Japanese industry has undergone significant consolidation, resulting in fewer but larger firms that reduce unnecessary competition and enhance profitability [6][37]. - Many Japanese firms are actively transforming their business models to escape homogeneous competition, focusing on high-value-added products and brand differentiation [6][44][45]. Group 4: European Measures - Europe employs rigid institutional constraints to set competitive boundaries, preventing companies from falling into involution cycles through strict regulations on state subsidies and competition law enforcement [7][46]. - The European Green Deal aims for carbon neutrality by 2050, raising industry entry standards and encouraging technological innovation, which helps eliminate low-value-added competitors [7][50]. - New regulations in the EU for renewable energy projects emphasize non-price criteria, creating barriers for foreign companies while favoring local enterprises [7][51].

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of the ETF market in the U.S. is expected to temporarily enhance turnover rates, while the liquidity premium of domestic bond ETFs is already relatively high [1]. Group 1: U.S. Bond ETF Market Trends - The U.S. bond ETF market is projected to grow significantly from $554.48 billion in 2023 to $1,152.81 billion in 2024, marking a growth rate of 107.9%. However, a noticeable decline is expected in 2025, with the market size dropping to $441.57 billion by June 2025 [2]. - During the periods of market expansion, particularly in early 2022, the turnover rate of U.S. credit bond ETFs increased, with an annual average turnover rate of 41% and peaks of 43% and 45% during specific months [2]. - There is no clear positive correlation between the expansion of the U.S. bond ETF market and turnover rates over a longer time frame, as evidenced from 2018 to 2020 when market size increased but turnover rates did not [2]. Group 2: Trading Activity and Liquidity Premium - The number of transactions for constituent bonds has significantly increased with the expansion of ETFs. For instance, the proportion of constituent bonds in the AAA benchmark market-making credit bond index has risen to 91.7% since July 2025 [3]. - The liquidity premium is reasonably anchored within 10 basis points (BP). Since 2024, the risk associated with high-grade urban investment bonds and secondary capital bonds has been similar, with a central spread of 0 and fluctuations generally within 10 BP [4]. - Some constituent bonds are experiencing liquidity premiums exceeding 15 BP due to heightened buying sentiment among certain institutions [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and ETF Dynamics - The expansion of ETFs is unlikely to lead to a sustained increase in the liquidity of constituent bonds. The physical redemption mechanism makes it easier to increase the scale of credit bond ETFs, but the liquidity of some constituent bonds may peak and decline as their market size decreases [5]. - Market sentiment significantly influences liquidity, with changes in ETF scale reflecting market emotions. The fluctuation in cash redemption products may be more pronounced during market adjustments, potentially putting pressure on the constituent bonds in the PCF list [5].