风险提示： 部分指标为测算值，美联储降息快于预期，特朗普政策不确定性。 报告来源 报告导读： 上周全球市场普遍下挫，发达市场跌幅更大，或受中美关税冲突升级冲击。资 金面上，美联储政策分歧依旧，市场预期美联储年内或再降息 2 次左右。基本面上，上周 主要市场预期普遍回落，全球股市盈利预期多数下修。 市场表现：上周发达市场跌幅更大。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 -1.7% ，其中 MSCI 发达市场 -1.9% 、 MSCI 新兴市场 -0.2% 。债市方面，日本 10Y 国债 利率大幅上升。大宗方面，黄金继续上涨，铜价涨幅靠后。汇率方面，美元升，英镑贬，日元贬，人民币贬。分板块看，上周欧美与港股信息技术 & 可选消 费板块大幅回调，日股逆势上涨。 交投情绪：上周全球成交普遍走弱， VIX 指数快速抬升。 从成交看，上周恒指、标普 500 、欧洲 Stoxx50 、韩国 Kospi200 成交下降，日经 225 成交上 升。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比上升、处历史偏高位，美股投资者情绪上升、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股、美股、欧股、日股波动率上 升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising risk aversion in global debt markets due to the U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions with China, leading to a significant influx of capital into safe assets like U.S. Treasuries [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened, with 10-year and 30-year yields decreasing by 6.2 and 7 basis points respectively, while the 2-year and 10-year spread remains at 52.8 basis points [3]. - European sovereign bonds have also benefited from the risk-averse sentiment, with Germany's 10-year bond yield falling by 7 basis points to 2.63% [3]. - The offshore RMB sovereign bond market saw a rise, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5.18 basis points to 1.9109%, and the domestic and offshore yield spread widening from 3.22 to 11.48 basis points [3]. Group 2: Liquidity and Credit Risk - The global funding market is characterized by short-term easing and ample liquidity, with the U.S. SOFR narrowing from 0.026% to 0.048%, indicating sufficient interbank funding supply [4]. - Despite stable core liquidity indicators, the re-pricing of sovereign credit risk has led to structural differentiation in interest rates across markets, with a notable decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reflecting increased demand for safe assets [4]. - Investment-grade bond spreads remain stable, while high-yield bond spreads have widened, indicating heightened sensitivity to credit risk in a liquid environment [4]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The article suggests a strategic asset allocation approach that includes overweighting safe assets, increasing exposure to emerging market sovereign debt, tactically overweighting long-term U.S. Treasuries, and being cautious about credit risk [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a decrease in new land reserve planning in Q3 2025, but a significant acceleration in actual funding availability, suggesting a positive outlook for future funding implementation [1][2]. Group 1: Land Reserve Planning - In Q3 2025, new land reserve planning decreased, with a cumulative planned reserve amount exceeding 610 billion yuan. The newly planned reserve amount for Q3 2025 was 131.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.4% compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The top three provinces for cumulative reserve scale were Zhejiang (84.3 billion yuan), Guangdong (74 billion yuan), and Chongqing (50.5 billion yuan) [2]. - The characteristics of the acquired land parcels remained consistent with the first half of the year, with 78.5% of the land parcels being "new parcels" acquired between 2020 and 2024, and an average discount rate of 0.8 [2]. Group 2: Special Bond Issuance - In Q3 2025, the issuance of special bonds accelerated, with actual funding exceeding 90 billion yuan in a single quarter. A total of 195 billion yuan in land reserve special bonds was issued nationwide, covering 32% of the planned reserve amount, an increase of 12 percentage points from the previous half [3]. - The newly issued amount in Q3 2025 was 98.9 billion yuan, indicating a significant increase in actual funding availability [3]. - Only eight provinces have implemented special bond issuance, with the top three in coverage being Hunan (37.8 billion yuan, 96%), Jiangsu (24.3 billion yuan, 83%), and Guangdong (48.6 billion yuan, 66%) [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4, the focus will remain on the large-scale promotion of the land reserve process, particularly the implementation of special bonds. The operational model for land acquisition has become replicable and promotable since early 2025 [4]. - The actual funding scale is still lagging behind the planned reserve scale, and the structure of land reserves will be an important reference for market recovery in various regions [4].

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Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of Shanghai in the global economic landscape, particularly in the context of offshore financial center development and the acceleration of RMB internationalization [2][4]. Group 1: Offshore Financial Center Development - The article discusses the collaborative efforts of various institutions, including regulatory bodies, academia, and industry, to address the challenges of building an offshore financial center in Shanghai [4]. - It highlights the need for theoretical analysis, international benchmarking, policy design discussions, and practical exploration to overcome development bottlenecks and unleash institutional innovation dividends [4]. Group 2: Event Overview - The event includes a series of discussions featuring prominent speakers from regulatory, academic, and practical perspectives, focusing on strategic thoughts, theoretical logic, current status, and international experiences related to offshore financial centers [5]. - Key topics include regulatory perspectives on Shanghai's offshore financial center strategy, theoretical insights into offshore financial centers, policy research on current development and investment opportunities, and practical analysis from banking perspectives [5].

Core Insights - Global equity markets faced overall pressure, with significant performance divergence, particularly in Asia where Japanese and Korean markets excelled [1][2] - Precious metals, especially gold and silver, reached new highs, while oil prices declined [1][4] - The bond market showed a "bull steep" trend in China, while US bonds exhibited a "bull flat" trend, indicating differing yield curve behaviors [3] Group 1: Equity Market Performance - The MSCI global index fell by 1.3%, with developed markets underperforming compared to emerging markets, particularly in Asia [2] - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 7.0%, reaching a new high, driven by a weaker yen and optimistic policy expectations [2] - A-shares experienced a slight decline, with the Wande All A index down by 0.4%, while the KOSPI and KOSDAQ in South Korea rose by 5.4% and 2.1%, respectively [2] Group 2: Commodity and Currency Trends - The COMEX silver and gold prices increased significantly, with silver up over 60% and gold over 50% year-to-date [1][4] - The South China commodity index and CRB commodity index rose by 0.2% and 2.0%, respectively, with most major commodities showing gains except for WTI and Brent crude [4] - The US dollar index increased by 1%, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 2.2% against the dollar [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - In China, the yield curve showed a downward trend overall, with the long end (20-30 years) rising, indicating a "bull steep" characteristic [3] - The US bond market also saw a downward shift in the yield curve, with a narrowing 10Y-2Y spread, reflecting a "bull flat" trend [3] - As of October 12, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October rose to 98.3%, with expectations for two rate cuts within the year [3]

Core Insights - The humanoid robotics industry is experiencing significant advancements, indicating a rapid commercialization of the sector [2] - The release of Figure03 marks a transition from experimental prototypes to deployable and scalable products [3] Group 1: Figure03 Release - Figure has officially launched the third-generation humanoid robot, Figure03, designed for Helix, home, and large-scale applications [2] - Figure03 features a completely redesigned sensory suite and hand system for advanced AI capabilities [2] - The robot includes new functionalities such as soft goods, wireless charging, improved audio systems, and enhanced battery safety for home use [2] - The design aims for mass production, supported by a new supply chain and manufacturing process established at BotQ [2] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Orders - Zhiyuan Robotics has secured a multi-billion yuan order for the Zhiyuan Spirit G2 robot framework, marking one of the largest orders in the domestic industrial embodied intelligence robotics sector [3] - The partnership with a leading global ODM company aims to deploy nearly a thousand robots, addressing industry challenges such as inflexible production lines and capacity fluctuations [3] - This collaboration sets a new benchmark for AI manufacturing with a focus on flexible reuse, rapid reconfiguration, and scalable replication [3]

Core Viewpoint - The short-term evolution of imports and exports is characterized by a slight decline in export momentum and a significant drop in year-on-year growth due to elevated baselines, alongside a rebound in import growth, which compresses trade surplus and highlights the importance of domestic demand [1][2]. Group 1: Export Dynamics - The current critical issue is how China's exports will perform during the strategic stalemate phase of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations, especially after effectively countering U.S. trade barriers through tariffs and export controls [2]. - The impact of traditional U.S. trade barriers on China's exports is decreasing, while China's export controls have a minimal direct impact on its own exports but significantly affect other countries' industries [2][6]. - In September 2025, China's export growth rate in dollar terms was 8.3%, up from 4.4% previously, while import growth was 7.4%, up from 1.3% [6]. Group 2: Import Trends - The import growth rate has shown a significant seasonal rebound, indicating a potential impact on trade surplus in Q4 due to the recovery of import growth since July [2][6]. - The trade surplus has decreased, and the decline in growth rates for exports to ASEAN may be attributed to re-export regulations or a normal cooling off after a technical surge in August [6]. Group 3: Structural Changes - The long-term trend of "de-Americanization" in China's exports continues, with a sustained decline in export growth to the U.S. and re-export destinations, while maintaining high growth rates to other regions [6]. - The current export resilience is strong, with previously rushed orders being gradually digested, indicating that the impressive export performance has already accounted for the negative impacts of tariffs and order front-loading [6].

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The overall upward trend in the equity market is expected to remain intact despite new developments in the US-China trade dispute, supported by three main factors: accelerated economic restructuring in China, enhanced capabilities to respond to complex environments, and continuous improvement in capital market institutional stability [2][3] - The convertible bond market has limited downside potential, and sharp declines may present buying opportunities, as the supply-demand dynamics are tight with insufficient new issuance and accelerated retirement of existing bonds [2][3] - Emphasis should be placed on individual bond selection and tactical trading due to the current high prices and valuations of convertible bonds, indicating limited systemic opportunities [2][3] Group 2: Structural Opportunities in Convertible Bonds - Focus on high-quality individual bonds with fully compressed conversion premiums, which may present value after valuation corrections [3] - Target convertible bonds from export chains that have been unfairly punished but have limited actual tariff impacts, especially those that have mitigated risks through overseas production [3] - Consider low-priced bonds with expectations of adjustments or terms that can act as stabilizers in a portfolio, particularly those with positive yield-to-maturity buying points during market corrections [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Since September 22, oil prices have been in a downward adjustment, with Brent crude at $62.09 as of October 10, influenced by OPEC's shift from cautious production cuts to accelerated increases to regain market share [7] - The geopolitical risk premium in the oil market has narrowed due to a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East, which has significantly impacted oil prices [8] - The re-ignition of trade tensions, with the US planning to impose additional tariffs on China, has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, indicating potential volatility in the short term [9] Group 4: Aviation and Shipping Industry Trends - The domestic aviation market has seen a surge in travel demand during the long holiday, with ticket prices rising, indicating a potential for profitability growth in Q3 2025 [13] - Oil shipping rates experienced a temporary drop during the holiday but rebounded sharply afterward, with expectations for continued demand growth in the oil shipping sector [14] - China's countermeasures against US tariffs are expected to mitigate the impact on Chinese shipping companies, suggesting a potential stabilization in the shipping market [15] Group 5: Media and Entertainment Sector Performance - The gaming market continues to show strong performance, with Tencent and other major players maintaining top positions in mobile game revenues [20][21] - The film market during the National Day holiday showed a decline in box office performance, with total revenue down 13% year-on-year, indicating challenges in the film sector [22]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "Guidelines for the Deployment and Application of Artificial Intelligence Large Models in the Government Sector" by the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and the National Development and Reform Commission is expected to accelerate the implementation of AI in government applications in China [2][3]. Group 1: Guidelines Overview - The guidelines provide a framework for government departments to deploy AI large models, emphasizing the need for a unified approach to infrastructure and data governance [2][3]. - The guidelines advocate for a model reuse strategy to avoid isolated models and enhance data quality for effective AI training [2][3]. Group 2: Application Scenarios - Four high-frequency application scenarios are identified: government services, social governance, office administration, and decision support [3]. - Specific applications include intelligent Q&A, auxiliary processing, policy service delivery, smart monitoring, and emergency response [3]. Group 3: Market Potential - The guidelines highlight the broad market potential for AI in government applications, with a projected market size of 2.54 billion RMB in 2024 [3]. - The emphasis is on securing funding for AI deployment in the government sector and promoting the integration of domestic AI technologies [3].