【宏观】 外需修复，推升供给——2025年11月PMI数据点评 新出口订单指数反弹，带动供给边际改善。 2025 年 11 月份，新出口订单指数为 47.6% ，边际回升 1.7 个百分点，创下半年以来的最大涨幅。在外需的支 撑下，生产指数升至临界点，但是表现不及近年同期平均水平，且涨幅弱于季节性。企业生产的积极性进一步提升还要内需的推动。从行业看，农副食品加 工、有色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业产需较为活跃，而石油煤炭及其他燃料加工、化学纤维及橡胶塑料制品等行业产需景气水平偏低。同时，原材料采购价格 总体水平加快上涨，反映"反内卷"治理效果持续释放。出厂价格指数虽然边际回升，但是仍处于收缩区间。在内需的疲软之下，制造业企业对原材料的扩大采 购较为谨慎。 建筑业景气指数边际回升，但是仍需提振。 在非制造业，服务业景气度边际回落，降幅强于季节性。究其原因，除了假期效应消退的影响，还与房地产供需 加快调整后，相关行业市场活跃度偏弱有关。建筑业景气指数边际回升，涨幅强于季节性。究其原因，或与四季度新型政策性金融工具落地、部分地方债结存 限额的投放有关。值得一提的是，财政部将提前下达 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额，支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of raw milk is stabilizing and expected to rise in 2026, benefiting from the reduction in supply-side expansion and decreased breeding, alongside the release of processing capacity on the demand side [2][3]. Group 1: Raw Milk Market - The price of raw milk has rebounded in September due to seasonal supply-demand mismatches and the implementation of new sterilized milk standards, leading to an initial balance in the industry supply-demand situation [2]. - As of now, China's self-sufficiency rate for raw milk exceeds 70%, with imports of dry dairy products equivalent to 15 million tons of fresh milk in 2024, accounting for 37% of raw milk production [2]. - Major companies like Yili and Mengniu are enhancing their processing capacity, which is expected to further boost the demand for raw milk as domestic substitution increases [2]. Group 2: Beef Cattle Market - The stock of breeding cows is continuously decreasing, with a year-on-year decline of 2.4% in national cattle stock as of Q3 2025, indicating a sustained supply gap and a favorable outlook for the beef cattle market until 2027 [3]. - The U.S. imposed a 40% tariff on Brazilian beef starting August 2025, leading to increased imports of beef into China, which may continue to affect domestic demand positively [3]. - The investigation into beef import measures in China will conclude in January, and potential restrictions could further stimulate domestic beef demand [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Cost Management - The profitability of dairy farming is expected to improve due to a rebound in milk prices and a reduction in unit costs, with leading dairy companies potentially seeing gross margin improvements of over 6% to 10% with a 10% to 20% increase in sales prices [3]. - The fair value of breeding cows is anticipated to rise due to the rebound in milk prices, lower feeding costs, and optimization of herd structure [3].

Core Insights - In the 2025 Sina Finance Golden Unicorn Best Analyst Awards, Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute won a total of 29 awards, ranking as the "Best Research Institution" and "Most Honorable Research Institution" in the top three [1] - Seventeen research teams received the "Best Analyst" award, with the Food & Beverage and Non-Bank Financial sectors ranking first [1] - Eight research teams were awarded the "Elite Analyst" title, with Macroeconomics, Computer Science, and Military Industry sectors also ranking first [1] Awards Summary - **Best Research Institution**: Guotai Junan Securities ranked first in "Best Research Institution" and third in "Most Honorable Research Institution" [4] - **Best Analysts**: - **1st Place**: Food & Beverage, Non-Bank Financial [5] - **3rd Place**: Innovative Drugs, Medical Devices, Retail and Social Services [5] - **4th Place**: Construction and Building Materials, Environmental Protection [5] - **5th Place**: Communication, Robotics and High-End Manufacturing [5] - **6th Place**: Real Estate, New Metal Materials, Home Appliances, Transportation and Logistics, Light Industry and Textile [5] - **7th Place**: Media [5] - **8th Place**: Oil and Chemical [5] - **Elite Analysts**: - **1st Place**: Macroeconomics [6] - **1st Place**: Computer Science [6] - **1st Place**: Military Industry [6] - **2nd Place**: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery [6] - **4th Place**: Strategy, Fixed Income [6] - **5th Place**: Electronics, Automotive and Parts [6]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate bond market has potential for yield exploration in the current low interest rate environment, but the fundamentals of the sector still require further improvement, and bond valuations may experience increased volatility due to event impacts, with an overall strategy recommendation leaning towards cautious defense [1][4]. Group 1: Company Debt Situation - Vanke announced a creditor meeting on December 10 to discuss the extension of "22 Vanke MTN004," which has a total issuance of 2 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 3%, maturing on December 15, 2025 [1]. - As of November 13, Vanke has repaid 19.571 billion yuan of domestic public debt in 2025, with a remaining balance of 20.316 billion yuan in domestic bonds and 1.3 billion USD in offshore bonds [2]. - Vanke's major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, has provided substantial financial support, totaling nearly 30 billion yuan from February to November 2025, primarily for repaying Vanke's publicly issued bond principal and interest [2]. Group 2: Industry Policy and Market Conditions - The real estate sector is experiencing simultaneous policy support and industry adjustment, with 2025 policies focusing on stabilizing the market and promoting recovery, including easing purchase restrictions and optimizing housing credit [3]. - In October, the sales area and sales revenue of commercial housing decreased year-on-year by 18.8% and 24.3%, respectively, due to a high base effect from last year's policy changes [3]. - New construction, construction, and completion areas in October saw year-on-year declines of 29.5%, 9.4%, and 28.2%, respectively, as developers prioritize ongoing projects amid significant financial pressure [3]. Group 3: Real Estate Bond Market Overview - From January to November 2025, a total of 593.681 billion yuan in real estate bonds were issued, while 624.609 billion yuan were repaid, resulting in a net financing of -30.928 billion yuan [4]. - The current non-default real estate bond scale is approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, with a high overall valuation level; about 442.7 billion yuan, or 38.4%, has a yield to maturity of over 2.3% [4]. - The investment strategy suggests that while there is some yield exploration potential in the current low interest rate environment, the sector's fundamentals need improvement, and a cautious defensive approach is recommended, focusing on high-quality central and state-owned enterprise real estate bonds with short durations [4].

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market in 2026 requires a shift from a broad reliance on overall market beta to a more refined selection of individual bond values, focusing on four main themes: technology growth, energy-driven investments, anti-involution, and low volatility bottom positions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In 2025, the convertible bond market strengthened due to a tight supply-demand balance and support from the equity market, with the China Convertible Bond Index showing a cumulative increase of 16.50% [1]. - High-priced, low-premium rate indices outperformed, with a cumulative increase of 21.48%, while low-priced convertible bonds achieved a steady return of 17.05% due to price recovery and valuation uplift [1]. - The convertible bond market exhibited three notable characteristics in 2025: scarcity of bottom-position bonds, index-based allocation tools, and a valuation logic leaning towards equity [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The convertible bond market experienced a significant contraction, with the total size down by 22.49% from the beginning of the year, primarily due to a reduction in issuance plans and an increase in forced redemptions as the equity market rose [1]. - The supply side is expected to remain under pressure, with a significant contradiction between the supply and maturity scale of convertible bonds, even without considering forced redemptions [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy - The valuation of convertible bonds is expected to remain high in 2026, supported by optimistic expectations for the equity market, driven by policy incentives and strong demand for equity assets [2]. - The first half of 2026 is anticipated to be a peak period for allocation, with a tight supply-demand balance providing a resilient foundation for high valuations [2]. - A neutral to slightly aggressive position is recommended for 2026, with a focus on maintaining a certain level of bottom-position bonds for liquidity and stability [3]. - Strategic opportunities should include selecting non-redeemed equity-type convertible bonds, participating in new bond issuance windows, and identifying bonds with strong conversion intentions [3].

Group 1: Copper and Aluminum - The demand for copper is expected to rise due to liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increased physical demand from AI investments, particularly in data centers and power grids, leading to a sustained upward trend in copper prices [1] - The copper supply-demand imbalance persists, and the valuation of the copper sector remains relatively low, suggesting a positive investment opportunity [1] - The aluminum industry is projected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, which will support aluminum prices and allow leading companies to achieve good profit levels due to their resource management and supply chain strategies [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - The long-term trend of "de-dollarization" is driving some countries to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and increase their gold reserves, a trend that is expected to continue despite easing U.S.-China trade tensions [2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are accelerating this process, with expectations of rising precious metal prices in 2025 and beyond [2] - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections may lead to more aggressive rate cuts from the new Federal Reserve chair, further supporting the bullish outlook for precious metals [2] Group 3: Energy Metals - The demand for lithium is anticipated to return to a tight balance by 2026, driven by growth in energy storage and power demand, with a projected demand growth rate of approximately 50% from energy storage and nearly 20% from power batteries [3] - The global lithium demand is expected to grow by 24.2%, while supply growth is estimated at 18.1%, indicating a shift from a loose balance to a tight balance in the lithium market [3] - The upward trend in lithium prices is expected as the market transitions to a tighter supply-demand scenario [3] Group 4: Rare Earth Materials - Domestic rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, with expectations for a continued upward trend due to supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and wind power [4] - The demand for neodymium-iron-boron is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 29% growth from the electric vehicle sector and 18% from wind power [4] - The tightening of supply, coupled with rising overseas prices, is likely to enhance the profitability and valuation of domestic rare earth magnet manufacturers [4]

Core Insights - Apple is accelerating its AI capabilities, which are expected to exceed expectations and drive smartphone upgrades and AR glasses penetration [1][2][3] - Doubao is exploring the integration of AI large models into smartphones, aiming to form an Agent-like functionality [2][3] Group 1: AI Integration and Product Development - Apple's Siri is set to evolve towards an AI Agent form, enhancing smartphone upgrades and AR glasses penetration [3] - Apple plans to launch the AI search tool "World Knowledge Answers" in Spring 2026, integrating it deeply with Siri to capture the generative AI market [3] - The upcoming iOS 26.4 is expected to significantly update Siri, improving its understanding of user context and integrating various media types for a better user experience [3] Group 2: Market Impact and Sales Projections - It is anticipated that at least two-thirds of iOS users will need to upgrade to the iPhone 15 Pro or higher by 2026 to optimize system experience, potentially leading to record smartphone sales [3] - The introduction of second-generation MR and AR glasses is expected to create a comprehensive AI hardware ecosystem, with projected sales reaching tens of millions [3] Group 3: Catalysts for Growth - The new iOS system experience is expected to surpass user expectations, acting as a catalyst for growth in the smartphone and AR markets [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the future outlook of various sectors, including commercial space, smart electric vehicles, and nuclear fusion, highlighting investment opportunities in these areas [3][4]. - It emphasizes the acceleration of China's commercial space development and its implications for the industry [4]. - The article provides insights into the expected growth of the global smart electric vehicle market by 2026, indicating significant investment potential [3][4]. Group 2 - The article outlines the 2026 outlook for the domestic and international large-scale energy storage industry, suggesting a growing market [4]. - It mentions the importance of nuclear fusion as a potential investment opportunity, reflecting ongoing advancements in this field [3][4]. - The event features discussions from industry leaders, providing a platform for investors to engage and explore these emerging sectors [3].

Core Insights - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned negative year-on-year, primarily due to the divergence in volume and price, uneven transmission of upstream price increases, and rising financial costs leading to a contraction in profit margins [1] - The industry is experiencing increased differentiation, with most sectors seeing a decline in profit growth; upstream industries performed slightly better than midstream and downstream, while only the beverage and tea sector benefited from a low base effect, resulting in marginal profit improvement [1] - Passive inventory replenishment highlights weak demand; future policy support and demand recovery are needed to stimulate inventory replenishment, alongside deepening anti-involution which may aid in improving PPI and restoring profit margins, although profit recovery may be gradual [1] - Caution is advised regarding demand falling short of expectations and issues related to cost transmission [1] Industry Analysis - The overall profit growth rate has declined across most industries, indicating a challenging environment for industrial enterprises [1] - Upstream industries are showing slightly better performance compared to midstream and downstream sectors, suggesting a potential shift in focus for investors [1] - The beverage and tea industry stands out as a rare exception, benefiting from a low profit margin base, which has allowed for some recovery in profits [1]

报告导读： 电力需求仍在上升趋势，长期看好火电。 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 各地新政限制售电盈利，有利电价企稳；报告日期：2025.11.26 报告作者： 吴杰（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040109 阎石（分析师），登记编号：S0880525070005 各地限制售电公司盈利，抵御恶性竞争，有利电价企稳。 10月全社会用电量8572亿度，YOY+10.4%（9月YOY+4.5%），二产/三产/居民用电量 5688/1609/1155亿度，YOY+6.2%/+17.1%/+23.9%（9月YOY+5.7%/+6.3%/-2.6%）提升，主要还是去年的天气等基数低的原因。预计全年5%以上 用电增速问题不大，三季报后，市场担忧26年长协电价和近期的高煤价，预计长协签订后行业会好转。 各地都在出台售电公司超额收益分成政策。 1、河南要求用户也需承担超额亏损，但上限仅10%。2、广东2026年起，对售电公司月度平均批零差价高于 0.01元/千瓦时的超额部分，按1:9比例分享给用户。同时将公示批零差价最大30家及固定价格均价最高30家售电公司名单。3、目前，河南、陕西、安徽 ...