Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The "924" policy shift in 2024 significantly improved market risk appetite, leading to increased market activity and valuation recovery in certain sectors[2] - By 2025, the macro economy shows signs of stabilization, with corporate profits beginning to recover from the bottom[2] - Despite improvements, the current macro environment remains complex, leading to increased volatility in some assets[2] Group 2: Industrial Profit Analysis - From January to April 2025, industrial enterprises' profits shifted from decline to growth, with high-tech manufacturing profits increasing by 9.0% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industrial average by 7.6%[6] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 4.87% from January to April 2025, a decrease of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year[7] - Equipment manufacturing remains a crucial support for profit growth, with a profit increase of 15.5% in the same period[10] Group 3: A-Share Market Predictions - A-shares are expected to reach a "profit bottom" in Q2 or Q3 2025, aligning with industrial profit trends[16] - The predicted cumulative profit growth rates for industrial enterprises in Q2, Q3, and Q4 2025 are 0.6%, 3.5%, and 3.3% respectively[16] - The upcoming mid-year reports for listed companies will be critical in assessing the effectiveness of the "924" policy and the resilience of the Chinese economy[31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth and adoption of AI models, particularly the Doubao model family, which has seen a significant increase in daily token usage, surpassing 16.4 trillion tokens by the end of May 2025, representing a growth of over 137 times since its launch [4][8]. - The Doubao model 1.6 features advanced capabilities, including multi-modal support and a context window of 256k, which enhances its reasoning and understanding abilities [4]. - The Seedance 1.0 pro video generation model has been recognized as a leader in the industry, outperforming many mainstream models in generating video content [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer industry has shown a market performance trend with fluctuations ranging from -27% to +67% over the specified periods [3]. AI Model Developments - The Doubao model family includes various models such as Doubao-seed-1.6, which offers a unified pricing model that reduces costs by 63% for most requests [4][6]. - The Seedance 1.0 pro model is priced competitively, costing only 3.67 yuan for generating a 5-second 1080P video, significantly lower than competitors [6]. Industry Adoption - The Doubao model is being adopted by 9 out of the top 10 global smartphone manufacturers and is utilized by 70% of systemically important banks and numerous brokerage firms [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the growing integration of AI models in various sectors, including education, automotive, and finance, with notable increases in token consumption across different applications [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI edge computing, AI agents, multi-modal AI, and AI computing power, listing several key players in each category [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue from traditional communication services while achieving significant growth in digital services, with a projected CAGR of 15% from 2020 to 2024 for digital services [5][22] - The company is positioned to benefit from advancements in satellite communication and quantum technology, which are anticipated to drive future growth [5][49] - The company has a strong dividend yield, with a projected cash dividend of 23.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing 72% of net profit attributable to shareholders [5][21] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 23% from June 2024 to October 2024 [2] Financial Data and Forecasts - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 507.84 billion yuan in 2023 to 586.73 billion yuan by 2027, with a net profit increase from 30.45 billion yuan to 40.59 billion yuan over the same period [6] - The company’s PE ratios for 2025-2027 are estimated at 21.02, 19.33, and 18.08, respectively, which are higher than the average PE ratios of comparable companies [5][6] Business Overview - The company’s traditional communication business remains robust, contributing 3,282 billion yuan in revenue by 2024, although its proportion of total revenue is expected to decline from 73% in 2020 to 63% in 2024 [5][22] - Digital services are projected to grow significantly, increasing from 840 billion yuan in 2020 to 1,466 billion yuan in 2024, enhancing the overall revenue mix [5][22] Capital Expenditure - The company’s capital expenditure peaked at 98.8 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight decrease to 93.5 billion yuan in 2024, and is expected to stabilize at 83.6 billion yuan in 2025 [5][29] Future Growth Drivers - The company is actively pursuing advancements in quantum technology and satellite communications, with significant investments in these areas expected to yield high growth potential [5][49] - The launch of 5G-A services is anticipated to create new opportunities in wireless communication, supported by government policies and operational initiatives [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests adopting a "wait-and-see" approach for convertible bonds, seeking structural opportunities before the inflection point of the small and medium - cap stocks in the equity market. It also advises paying attention to changes in the liability side and taking appropriate profit - taking on some high - position varieties. Given the current situation, the style preference is elasticity > bond nature [5][27]. - Structurally, investment strategies are proposed from three aspects: option value strategy, absolute price strategy, and theme trading strategy [6][28]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Overall Market Performance - The overall performance of the convertible bond market last week was positive. The CSI Convertible Bond Index has continuously risen since the end of May and has now returned to the level of late March. In terms of market capitalization style, during the four trading days after the Dragon Boat Festival, the small - cap style index outperformed the medium and large - cap varieties, showing a more trading - like market, which was also reflected in the industry sectors. Affected by factors such as the strong performance of new consumption and positive fundamentals of innovative drugs, the TMT and consumption sectors outperformed the cyclical and manufacturing sectors [5][9]. 2. Cumulative Entanglement: Spiral Rise of Price and Valuation - As the small - cap style returned to the upward range this week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index continued to rise. The median price of convertible bonds in the 90 - 110 yuan parity range has reached 122 yuan, at the upper edge of the oscillation range this year, and the valuation has exceeded 20%. However, compared with the May rebound, this round of the market shows a trend from large - cap convertible bonds to small - cap ones. For fixed - income + investors with a balanced and stable risk preference, the high - valuation environment increases the holding pressure [5][11]. 3. Using the Elimination Method: Liability - Side Emotional Changes May Be More Important 3.1 Credit Risk Impact - Localized - Since 2020, except for 2024, the number of rating downgrades each year has been within 30, and mid - to late June is the peak period for rating adjustments. As of now, the frequency of rating downgrades in 2025 is not significantly higher than the same period from 2020 - 2024, and the downgraded companies mostly face operational pressures. Except for the period since June 2024, the retracement of convertible bond varieties during the rating adjustment periods in other years was relatively controllable. Therefore, the credit risk impact on convertible bonds in 2025 may be "localized" [5][16]. 3.2 Liability - Side Changes and Valuation - Still in Entanglement - Using convertible bond ETFs as a benchmark, in the past 5 trading days, the product has shown a stable circulation scale but continuous share redemptions, indicating that the passive allocation part of convertible bonds may gradually complete profit - taking. The positions of institutions such as public funds and insurance companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have also been adjusted. The trading volume of high - turnover convertible bonds is still at a central level, and the trading has not entered an over - heated stage. Some industries in the consumption and TMT sectors have reached prices above 125 yuan. Whether the liability side will further shift from passive to active remains to be seen, and the key lies in whether the risk preference of the allocation side can increase again during the market trend establishment [5][21]. 4. Investment Strategies - **Option Value Strategy**: It is recommended to focus on new consumption sectors (e.g., Shuiyang Convertible Bond, Xianle Convertible Bond) and technology sectors (e.g., Dinglong Convertible Bond, Jingduan Convertible Bond) [6][28]. - **Absolute Price Strategy**: Bullish on bank varieties (e.g., Industrial Bank Convertible Bond) due to the supply - demand mismatch of convertible bonds, and pay attention to some pharmaceutical varieties with improved fundamentals (e.g., Yirui Convertible Bond, Haoyuan Convertible Bond) [6][28]. - **Theme Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to Huamao Convertible Bond catalyzed by mergers and acquisitions, and strategic sectors related to rare - earth magnetic materials such as Zhenghai Convertible Bond affected by continuous tariff disturbances [6][28].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The H-acid market is experiencing significant price increases, with a current price of 41,750 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.09% and a year-on-year increase of 22.79%, marking a three-year high [4][6] - The active dye market price is currently 23 RMB/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 4.55% and a year-on-year increase of 9.52% [4][6] - The H-acid industry faces long-term supply-demand gaps due to environmental pressures, leading to the elimination of many small producers and a gradual increase in industry concentration [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a market performance trend with a range from -22% to +22% for the period from June 2024 to February 2025 [3] Industry Dynamics - H-acid is a key intermediate for producing over 90 types of dyes, which are essential for dyeing wool and cotton fabrics, as well as for pharmaceutical production [6] - The production of H-acid generates complex and toxic wastewater, leading to high treatment costs and significant environmental pressures [6] - As of May 2025, the effective domestic production capacity of H-acid is less than 60,000 tons, indicating a supply gap of over 10% [6] Price Trends - The price of H-acid has been rising, which supports the upward price trend of active dyes, as H-acid constitutes 30-50% of the production cost of active dyes [6] - The active dye industry in China has a high concentration, with a CR4 of 64.91%, suggesting that leading companies have a strong pricing power [6] Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on the following companies: Jinchicken Co., Jihua Group, Runtu Co., Haisheng Pharmaceutical, and Zhejiang Longsheng [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the regulatory advancements in stablecoin policies in the US and Hong Kong, indicating a shift towards the formalization of cryptocurrency applications, particularly stablecoins [10][11]. - It emphasizes the growing adoption of stablecoins for cross-border payments and the increasing demand for AI applications, which are driving the need for enhanced computational liquidity [12][13]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The US Senate has advanced the "Stablecoin Unified Standards Guarantee Act" with a vote of 66 to 32, mandating that all stablecoins must be backed 1:1 by high-quality, low-risk liquid assets [10]. - Hong Kong has introduced the "Stablecoin Ordinance," effective August 1, 2025, requiring entities to obtain licenses for issuing stablecoins, with stringent financial and compliance requirements [14]. - The global issuance of stablecoins has surpassed $240 billion as of May 3, 2025, indicating a significant market presence [11]. - AI applications are experiencing rapid growth, with ChatGPT reaching 620 million monthly active users, surpassing traditional social media platforms [12][13]. Industry News - The "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong aims to regulate stablecoin activities and establish a licensing system, which is expected to accelerate the compliance and formalization of stable currencies [14]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released the "Computational Power Interconnection Action Plan," aiming to standardize and enhance the interconnectivity of computational resources by 2026 [15][16]. - China Mobile has announced the winners of its AI general computing device procurement, with a total estimated procurement of 7,058 units [17]. - The successful launch of the fourth batch of low-orbit satellites for the "GW Constellation" marks a significant step in China's satellite internet capabilities [18]. Market Review and Focus - The telecommunications sector saw a 5.06% increase this week, outperforming major indices, with significant gains in optical modules and AI computing indices [19][20]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the digital currency and computational power sectors, highlighting companies such as Chutianlong and Hengbao [23].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：国际局势莫测下 应坚守贵金属避风港 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 09 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 贵金属 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the progress of stablecoin regulations in Europe, the United States, and Hong Kong, indicating a clearer compliance path that could stimulate financial innovation and enhance the value of digital currencies and assets [4]. - Circle's IPO has generated significant demand, with the global stablecoin market projected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, driven by regulatory clarity and increased acceptance among financial users [4]. - Stablecoins are expected to evolve from mere transaction mediums to critical financial infrastructure, presenting investment opportunities in the digital currency sector [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer industry has shown a performance trend against the CSI 300 index, with fluctuations observed from June 2024 to February 2025 [3]. Related Research - Several related reports are mentioned, focusing on the implications of AI and data analysis in the industry, as well as the financial performance of specific companies [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA), listing several firms such as Lianlian Digital, Zhong'an Online, and others as potential investment opportunities [4].

Investment Strategy - The report highlights the recent updates in stablecoin policies in the US and Hong Kong, indicating a shift towards the formalization of cryptocurrencies, which may lead to increased adoption of stablecoins [10][11] - The global issuance of stablecoins has surpassed $240 billion as of May 3, 2025, suggesting that stablecoins are becoming a significant part of the cryptocurrency ecosystem [11] - The report emphasizes the growing demand for AI applications, with ChatGPT achieving 620 million monthly active users as of May 2025, surpassing traditional social media platforms [12][13] Industry News - The "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong will officially take effect on August 1, 2025, establishing a licensing system for stablecoin activities, which is expected to accelerate the compliance and formalization of stable currencies [14] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the "Computing Power Interconnection Action Plan," aiming to establish a comprehensive standard and rule system for computing power interconnection by 2026 [15][16] - China Mobile has announced the winners of its centralized procurement for AI general computing devices, with a total estimated procurement scale of 7,058 units, indicating ongoing investment in AI infrastructure [17] Market Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a 5.06% increase this week, outperforming major indices, with significant gains in optical modules and optical communication [19][20] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the digital currency and computing power sectors, highlighting companies such as Chutianlong and Hengbao [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (from June 3rd to June 6th), the money market rate declined, the average daily net lending of large - scale banks increased, and the leverage ratio of funds slightly rose. The net financing of certificates of deposit decreased, and the yields to maturity of certificates of deposit with different maturities showed differentiation. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were other product types, mainly increasing holdings of certificates of deposit. Rural commercial banks switched to increasing holdings of certificates of deposit, insurance companies increased holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds with maturities of 15 - 30 years, funds increased holdings of interest - rate bonds across all maturities, and large - scale banks bought interest - rate bonds with maturities of 1 - 3 years. [3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money and Capital Market - A total of 1602.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired this week. The central bank conducted reverse repurchases of 454.5 billion, 214.9 billion, 126.5 billion, and 135 billion yuan from Tuesday to Friday, with a total injection of 930.9 billion yuan and a net liquidity withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan for the whole week. [5][10] - As of June 6th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.45%, 1.55%, 1.41%, and 1.53% respectively, with changes of - 11.9BP, - 14.58BP, - 6.98BP, and - 13.22BP compared to May 30th, and were at the 19%, 9%, 16%, and 3% historical quantiles respectively. [5][12] - The net borrowing scale of the main fund lenders increased. The main lending institutions (large - scale commercial/policy banks and joint - stock commercial banks) had a net borrowing of - 341.2 billion yuan for the whole week, an increase of 284.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [5][17] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.5 trillion yuan and a maximum single - day trading volume of 7.86 trillion yuan, a 15.42% increase compared to the previous week's average daily volume. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions increased, with an average daily proportion of 87.5% and a maximum single - day proportion of 90.4%, a 3.61 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous week's average daily proportion. [5][24] - The leverage ratio of broad - based funds slightly increased. As of June 6th, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.3%, 202.5%, 127.1%, and 105.4% respectively, with changes of 0.41BP, 14.27BP, - 0.68BP, and 0.1BP compared to May 30th, and were at the 17%, 17%, 60%, and 39% historical quantiles respectively. [5][28] 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - This week, the issuance scale of certificates of deposit decreased, and the net financing amount decreased compared to the previous week. The total issuance was 585.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 82.91 billion yuan compared to the previous week; the total maturity was 664.37 billion yuan, an increase of 11.64 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing amount was - 78.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 94.55 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [5][32] - By bank type, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. This week, the issuance scales of certificates of deposit by state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 151.88 billion, 161.56 billion, 223.54 billion, and 44.51 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 214.34 billion, 69.4 billion, 45.4 billion, and 14.02 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [32] - By maturity type, the 6 - month issuance scale was the highest. The issuance scales of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit were 44.1 billion, 133.53 billion, 236.64 billion, 88.58 billion, and 122.43 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 311.5 billion, 443.3 billion, 929.5 billion, 806.6 billion, and - 2697 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [33] - This week, the issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit by different banks and with different maturities showed differentiation. By bank type, as of June 6th, the issuance interest rates of 1 - year certificates of deposit by joint - stock banks and city commercial banks changed by 0BP and - 2.83BP respectively compared to May 30th, and were at the 2% and 1% historical quantiles. By maturity, as of June 6th, the issuance interest rates of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 6 - month certificates of deposit changed by 2.64BP, 4.13BP, and - 5.23BP respectively compared to May 30th, and were at the 6%, 2%, and 1% historical quantiles. [41] - This week, the Shibor rates generally declined. As of June 6th, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1 - month, and 3 - month Shibor rates changed by - 6BP, - 11.7BP, - 15.1BP, - 0.1BP, and - 0.1BP respectively compared to May 30th, reaching 1.41%, 1.5%, 1.59%, 1.62%, and 1.65%. [43] - This week, the yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit flattened. As of June 6th, the yield - to - maturities of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank certificates of deposit with maturities of 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, and 1 year were 1.63%, 1.66%, 1.65%, 1.68%, and 1.68% respectively, with changes of 8.49BP, - 0.52BP, - 3BP, - 3BP, and - 2.75BP compared to May 30th. [45] - This week, the bill interest rates showed differentiation. As of June 3rd, the 3 - month direct discount rate, 3 - month transfer discount rate, 6 - month direct discount rate, and 6 - month transfer discount rate of state - owned shares were 1.15%, 1.02%, 1.14%, and 1.09% respectively, with changes of - 5BP, - 14BP, 0BP, and 3BP compared to May 30th. [46] 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - This week, the main buyers of cash bonds were other product types, with a net purchase of 8.92 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week's purchase scale; the main sellers were joint - stock banks, with a net sale of 22.38 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week's sale scale. [5][48] - This week, funds had a net purchase of 7.84 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 5.3 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 1.5533 billion yuan in credit bonds, 750 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 210 million yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 3 - 5 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year. [5][48] - This week, wealth management products had a net purchase of 4.61 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 720 million yuan in interest - rate bonds, 1.04 billion yuan in credit bonds, 850 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 2 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year. [5][50] - This week, rural financial institutions had a net purchase of 3.99 billion yuan of cash bonds, including a decrease of 2.19 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 80 million yuan in credit bonds, 360 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 5.73 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly decreased in the 1 - 3 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year. [50] - This week, insurance companies had a net purchase of 4.31 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 3.23 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 380 million yuan in credit bonds, a decrease of 210 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 900 million yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 20 - 30 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 3 - 5 - year range. [50]