Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Overview - The Federal Reserve has conducted 5 easing cycles and 5 preventive rate cuts since 1980, with rate reductions ranging from approximately 75 basis points (bp) to 1150 bp[13] - Preventive rate cuts occur when economic growth slows but has not yet entered a recession, while easing cuts are implemented during severe economic downturns[17] - The current easing cycle shares similarities with those in 1995 and 2019, with marginal economic weakening but resilient consumption and services[5] Group 2: Asset Performance During Rate Cuts - U.S. Treasury yields typically decline significantly before the first rate cut, with average declines of 73 bp and 85 bp for easing and preventive cuts, respectively[53] - U.S. equities generally rise during preventive cuts (with an 80% success rate for the Nasdaq and S&P 500) but tend to decline during easing cuts, averaging a drop of 11%-13%[52] - The U.S. dollar usually weakens during both types of rate cuts but tends to rebound after the cycle ends, with an average increase of 2.7% six months post-cut[52] - Gold performs better during preventive cuts, with an 80% success rate, while industrial metals depend more on global demand fundamentals[52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2][14]. Core Insights - The coal prices have shown a seasonal rebound, with expectations for a favorable market in Q4 due to increased demand and supply constraints [7]. - The report highlights the impact of "anti-involution" policies and stricter safety regulations on coal supply, which are expected to support price stability and potential increases [7][9]. - The overall sentiment is that coal prices are likely to rise in the upcoming winter season, driven by demand recovery and macroeconomic policies [7][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 11, the Qinhuangdao coal price was 706 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 154 RMB/ton, but a slight week-on-week increase of 0.7% [7]. - The average daily coal consumption in power plants across 25 provinces was 5.12 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that coal supply is expected to remain tight due to "anti-involution" effects and safety inspections, which may limit new supply [7]. - The inventory levels at northern ports were reported at 17.47 million tons, an increase compared to the same period last year [7]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coal stocks that are likely to benefit from the current market conditions, including companies like Lu'an Huanneng, Pingmei Shenma, and Shanxi Coking Coal [9]. - It also highlights the potential for growth in companies like Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment Energy, which are expected to see performance improvements [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a relative performance expectation above the market [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese government has implemented comprehensive export controls on rare earth elements, which may create new investment opportunities in the sector [4]. - The tightening of supply chains for rare earths globally, particularly due to U.S. efforts to restructure its supply chain, enhances the strategic importance of China's rare earth products [4]. - The demand for rare earths is expected to grow due to the increasing production of new energy vehicles and wind power installations, supporting the market performance of the rare earth sector [4]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on rare earth production companies such as Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Guangxi Nonferrous Metals, as well as permanent magnet material companies like Jieneng Permanent Magnet [4]. Summary by Sections Export Controls - Starting November 8, 2025, China will impose export controls on certain heavy rare earth items, related equipment, and technologies, expanding the scope of previous regulations [4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The U.S. has been investing in domestic rare earth production, including a $400 million investment in MP Materials, which highlights the challenges of restructuring the rare earth supply chain outside of China [4]. Policy Impact - New policies aimed at regulating rare earth mining and refining are expected to enhance the traceability of rare earth products and combat smuggling, further stabilizing the supply side [4]. Demand Growth - The demand for rare earths is projected to benefit from the growth in new energy vehicles and wind power installations, with exports of rare earth permanent magnets showing a year-on-year increase of 15.4% as of August [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][31]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism regarding the overall opportunities in the computing power and storage industry chains, particularly focusing on domestic computing power and storage sectors. It highlights improvements in supply-side conditions for domestic computing chips and increasing demand driven by AI-related capital investments [2][31]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in demand for DRAM and NAND due to the continuous release of large models, with expectations for a major expansion year for storage in the upcoming year [2][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The electronic industry outperformed the overall market during the week of September 29-30, with the Shenwan Electronic Index rising by 2.78%, ranking 6th among 31 Shenwan industries. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 53.51%, ranking 3rd [12][31]. Weekly Focus - OpenAI's release of the Sora 2 model is expected to significantly increase demand for computing and storage capabilities. Additionally, Samsung and SK Hynix have signed an agreement to supply memory chips for OpenAI's data centers, indicating a growing collaboration in the AI sector [25][27]. - The report notes that Longxin Technology is progressing towards its IPO, which is anticipated to enhance its market presence in the DRAM sector [29][30]. - The report also mentions that major DRAM manufacturers have paused pricing for a week, which may lead to a price increase of over 30% in the fourth quarter [30][31]. Industry Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential in the domestic computing power chain, highlighting key players such as Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Chipone. It also points out the expected growth in the storage sector, particularly for NAND and DRAM, driven by new product launches from Yangtze Memory Technologies and Longxin [2][31]. - The overseas computing power chain is also noted for its rapid growth, with significant capacity expansions expected in PCB manufacturing [31]. Valuation - As of October 9, 2025, the electronic industry's valuation (PE-TTM) stands at 67.72 times, which is considered to be at a historical mid-level [20][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the domestic market for Vitamin A, Vitamin E, and methionine, with the methionine project entering trial operation, which is expected to gradually contribute to profits [5] - The company achieved significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 11.101 billion yuan, up 12.76% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.603 billion yuan, up 63.46% year-on-year [4][5] - The report highlights the company's focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement in production, alongside the steady progress of various projects [4][5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 23.938 billion, 26.136 billion, and 28.785 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 6.741 billion, 7.139 billion, and 7.641 billion yuan [5][6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.19, 2.32, and 2.49 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][12] - The report indicates a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.83, 10.23, and 9.55 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][12] Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a 52-week increase of 21.48% [4] - The report notes a decline in the prices of major products in Q2 2025, with Vitamin A and Vitamin E prices decreasing by 14.73% and 22.90% respectively, while methionine prices increased by 2.30% [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is set to acquire a 39.2% stake in Wu Tongshu Technology, a leading AIDC service provider, which is expected to significantly enhance its position in the intelligent computing center market valued at over 1 trillion yuan [4][44]. - Wu Tongshu Technology has committed to achieving a net profit of no less than 400 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong growth potential [4][44]. - The report highlights four key advantages of Wu Tongshu Technology: superior server performance, excellent liquid cooling technology, strong profitability, and a solid presence in the education sector [43][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, established in 1999, specializes in landscape lighting design, construction, and operation services, with rapid revenue and profit growth from 2015 to 2021 [14]. - The company has expanded its business scope by acquiring Holovis and is now pursuing the acquisition of Wu Tongshu Technology to enhance its capabilities in computing services and immersive experiences [24]. 2. AIDC Business - The domestic intelligent computing center market is projected to reach 288.6 billion yuan by 2028, with a CAGR of 27% [27][40]. - Wu Tongshu Technology's server performance is reported to be at 80%-90% of international leading levels, with a significant cost advantage [43][56]. - The company has a strong order reserve of 3.55 billion yuan, with a high probability of fulfilling its performance commitments [4][43]. 3. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit to grow significantly from 101.75 million yuan in 2025 to 153.49 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 392.04% and 23.45% respectively [6][7]. - The expected revenue for 2025 is projected at 1.29 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 87.97% [7]. 4. Market Trends - The report notes that the AI industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the Chinese AI market expected to reach 352.2 billion yuan by 2025, driven by advancements in large model technologies [28][30]. - The demand for intelligent computing is expected to rise sharply, with the market size for intelligent computing projected to reach 259 billion yuan by 2026 [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before July, simple trading rules could achieve good results in convertible bond timing, but since July, as the equity market has continuously broken through upward, convertible bond valuations have continued to rise, and strategies based on the mean - reversion logic are prone to missing out on opportunities in the unilateral upward market [4][9]. - The capital flow of institutional investors often leads the market trend. The current unilateral upward equity market started with insurance funds accelerating into the market, pushing up the banking sector, followed by a steeper increase in margin balance, an increase in the equity positions of hybrid funds and first - and second - tier bond funds, and the growth style began to dominate [4][10]. - Public funds are the largest investors in the convertible bond market, and their behavior has an important impact on the convertible bond market. The report focuses on the high - frequency measurement of the convertible bond positions of active public funds [4][19]. - The Kalman filter method is used to measure the convertible bond positions of public funds with a median absolute error of about 3pct at the end of each quarter and an estimated accuracy of about 60% for the change direction of convertible bond positions [4][38][42]. - Public funds show obvious left - hand characteristics in convertible bond allocation, buying more when prices fall and reducing positions when prices rise. The main driving force for the accelerated rise of convertible bonds since June is not public funds, and their convertible bond positions only began to increase significantly in late July [4][49]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. From Valuation to Capital: The Evolution of the Timing Framework - Valuation and absolute price are common references for investors in convertible bond timing. Before July, simple trading rules were effective, but since July, strategies based on mean - reversion logic are easy to miss opportunities in the unilateral upward market [4][9]. - The capital flow of institutional investors has a leading effect on the market. The current equity market's unilateral rise started with insurance funds entering the market, followed by an increase in margin balance and the equity positions of hybrid and bond funds, and the growth style became dominant [4][10]. - Public funds are the largest investors in the convertible bond market, holding 35% of Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bonds and 36% of Shenzhen Stock Exchange convertible bonds as of the end of August. Active public funds' convertible bond holdings are mainly concentrated in hybrid funds and first - and second - tier bond funds, while passive convertible bond funds are mainly ETFs [19]. 2. High - Frequency Measurement of Public Fund Positions - The frequency of public funds' position information disclosure is low and lacks timeliness. Common high - frequency measurement methods include the quadratic programming method and the Kalman filter method [27]. - **Kalman Filter**: It is a recursive algorithm with two stages: prediction and update. It estimates the current state based on the previous state's estimated value and the current observation value [28]. - **Model Setting**: Assume that the assets held by funds include stocks, convertible bonds, pure bonds, and cash, and establish equations based on asset weights, fund returns, and asset returns [35]. - **Data Description**: The main measurement objects are hybrid and first - and second - tier bond funds. Samples are selected according to certain criteria each quarter. The returns of different asset classes are represented by corresponding indices. Initial values are adjusted and iterated quarterly [36]. 3. Model Effect Evaluation - **Absolute Error**: The median absolute error of the model's measurement of sample funds' convertible bond positions at the end of each quarter is about 3pct [38]. - **Direction Accuracy**: The model's estimated accuracy for the change direction of sample funds' convertible bond positions each quarter is about 60% [42]. - **Typical Sample Analysis**: For sample funds with large short - term position fluctuations, the model's measurement error is relatively large. There are usually breakpoints in the position measurement results between the end of each quarter and the beginning of the next quarter [46]. 4. Institutional Behavior Analysis - Public funds show obvious left - hand characteristics in convertible bond allocation, buying more when prices fall and reducing positions when prices rise. The main driving force for the accelerated rise of convertible bonds since June is not public funds, and their convertible bond positions only began to increase significantly in late July [49].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 22.2% year-on-year, reaching 3.096 billion yuan in H1 2025, with net profit soaring by 66.9% to 110 million yuan. Excluding share-based payment impacts, net profit would have been 141 million yuan, reflecting a 114% increase [1][5]. - The growth in net profit is attributed to product upgrades that enhanced gross margins and improved channel efficiency leading to increased sales [1]. - The company launched over 20 new models, including K50, MS95, and Moda50D, and expanded its retail presence to over 14,000 stores [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Electric bicycles generated 1.997 billion yuan in revenue, up 29.2%, accounting for 64.5% of total revenue [2]. - Electric scooters contributed 354 million yuan, a 2.6% increase, representing 11.4% of total revenue [2]. - Battery sales reached 597 million yuan, up 16.5%, making up 19.3% of total revenue [2]. - Components for electric two-wheelers generated 107 million yuan, a 2.8% increase, accounting for 3.5% of total revenue [2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 13.56%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 3.56%, up 0.97 percentage points [4]. - The report forecasts revenues of 6.063 billion yuan, 6.916 billion yuan, and 7.642 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 151 million yuan, 192 million yuan, and 217 million yuan for the same years [5][6]. Growth Strategies - The company aims to penetrate the high-end electric assist bicycle market, targeting a market expected to grow from 35 billion USD in 2024 to 62 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of nearly 10% [4]. - It is also developing a battery swapping, leasing, and aftermarket modification ecosystem to create additional growth avenues [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with an "Accumulate" rating [2][8]. Core Views - The company has a strong foothold in the valve market, particularly in overseas markets, and is a leader in the data center valve segment [6][31]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years [39]. - Key growth drivers include projects in Saudi Arabia, domestic smart water business, and a leading position in data center valves [6][8][36]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been in the valve market for over 30 years, with significant experience in research and development, brand influence, and product quality [6][10]. - It has a market capitalization of approximately 4.36 billion CNY and a circulating market value of about 2.66 billion CNY [4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 272 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.86%, and a net profit of 59 million CNY, up 15.14% [6][13]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 669 million CNY in 2025 to 960 million CNY by 2027, with net profit projected to increase from 152 million CNY to 241 million CNY in the same period [39][40]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company has established a strong presence in six key segments: firefighting, municipal water supply, smart energy-saving, gas, automotive and agricultural machinery parts, and marine applications [11][15]. - The Saudi project is expected to significantly boost overseas revenue, with the company recognized as a qualified supplier for Saudi Aramco [6][32]. - The domestic smart water business is anticipated to grow due to the national push for smart water management systems [34][36]. Product and Technology - The company has been involved in the data center valve market since 2018, maintaining a leading position with products used in major data centers in Indonesia and North America [36][37]. - The company has a robust R&D framework, having received multiple certifications and recognition for its innovative products [30][29]. Investment Outlook - The report forecasts a steady increase in both revenue and profit margins, with a focus on maintaining high gross and net profit margins [21][39]. - The company’s strategic initiatives, including a recent stock incentive plan, are expected to enhance long-term growth and attract talent [37][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, indicating a projected increase in performance relative to the market index [4][12]. Core Insights - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays are expected to see record-high travel activity, with a significant increase in outbound travel bookings [1]. - Travel search volume during the holiday period is projected to increase by over 20% year-on-year, with a notable rise in both domestic and international flight bookings [8]. - The report highlights a strong demand for high-quality hotel bookings, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% for premium accommodations [8]. - Outbound travel is experiencing a surge, particularly to regions benefiting from visa-free policies, with booking numbers for destinations like Europe and North America showing substantial growth [8]. Summary by Sections Travel Trends - The report notes that the travel search volume for the upcoming holiday is expected to exceed 20% year-on-year [8]. - Domestic flight bookings have increased by 26%, while international flight bookings have risen by 15% [8]. Hotel and Accommodation - High-quality hotel bookings have seen a year-on-year increase of 58% [8]. - The demand for premium hotels continues to grow, with over 20% increase in bookings compared to last year [8]. Outbound Travel - Outbound travel bookings have increased significantly, with a 30% rise in visa service bookings for the National Day holiday [8]. - Specific regions such as Europe and North America have seen booking increases of 80% and 207% respectively, while Asian destinations have experienced a 380% rise [8].