]yrtsudnI_elbaT[ 2024 年 06 月 24 日 【评论】 点阵图下调 2024 年降息预期，上调了 2025、2026 年降息预测。本次 议息会议市场依然最为关注美联储在 SEP 中对点阵图的调整，6 月点 阵图显示联储将今年降息预期由 3 次共 75PB 下调至 1 次共 25BP，从 点阵图分布来看委员整体仍偏向于今年降息 1 次或 2 次，同时点阵图 预期 2025 年和 2026 年各降息 4 次。 挖掘价值 投资成长 2024.04.18 1.连续上调长期利率预测，去通胀取得进展 SEP（Summary of Economic Projections）上调失业率、通胀预期，长期 利率预测进一步上移。经济预测方面，美联储维持 GDP 预测；上调 2025/2026 年失业率预测至 4.2%/4.1%；上调 2024/2025 年 PCE 预测至 2.6%/2.3%，上调 2024/2025 年核心 PCE 预测至 2.8%/2.3%；同时联储官员对长期中性利率的预 期升至 2.8%。 [Table_yemei] 宏观数据点评 会后市场降息预期回调。根据芝商所 FedWatch 工具 ...

618宠物食品战报发布,零食礼包品类 增速突出 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市(维持) 【事项】 相对指数表现 【评论】 【投资建议】 【风险提示】 2024 年 06 月 24 日 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师:高博文 证书编号:S1160521080001 联系人:班红敏 电话:021-23586475 京东超市宠物业务披露 618 大促阶段战报。据战报显示,截至 5 月 20 日 20:00-6 月 18 日 24:00,京东宠物 618 全周期成交单量同比增长超 42%;新用户同比增长超 32%;936 个品牌销售额同比增长超 100%;261 个品牌销售额同比增长超 1000%;280 个品牌新用户同比增长超 100%; 超百万爆品数量同比增长超 210%。 在宠物食品品类中,宠物零食礼包品类增速突出。其中:猫粮烘焙粮 销售金额 yoy+170%;猫主食冻干销售金额 yoy+186%;猫湿粮销售金 额 yoy+149%;猫零食礼包销售单量 yoy+2615%;老年犬粮销售金额 yoy+167%;狗零食礼包销售金额 yoy+273%。 麦富迪在猫狗食品的四个细分榜单中均有上榜且排名前列。从品牌销 售额 ...

关节续标执行在即,国产化加速在望 2024 年 06 月 24 日 【事项】 2024 年 5 月 21 日国家医保局组织的全国人工关节集采协议期满后接 续采购在天津开标。本次接续采购共有 6000 多家医院参加,共填报 需求量 58 万套,较首轮集采增加 7.42%,其中髋关节 28.6 万套,膝 关节 29.4 万套。与首轮集采结果相比,本次接续采购中选价格稳中 有降,平均略降 6%左右。本轮采购周期由两年延长至三年,中选结果 将于 2024 年 6 月在全国落地执行。 【评论】 采购规则持续优化,最高限价与复活机制设置温和。本次接续采购中 选产品的价差从首轮集采的平均 2.8 倍缩小至 1.1 倍,市场竞争更加 公平,企业供应更有保障。本次采购坚持"量价挂钩、以量换价"原 则:1)坚持竞价入围,以适当的竞争"淘汰"率,引导首轮中选价 格较高的产品进一步降价。2)稳定市场,引导有序竞争,未在竞争 中入围的产品,如报价不高于首轮集采中选价平均水平也可"复活" 中选,给予有让利患者意愿的企业更多中选机会,保障供应稳定多元。 3)实行梯度带量,中选排名靠前、价格低的产品带量比例高,反之 中选排名靠后、价格略高的 ...

行 业 研 究 / 传 媒 互 联 网/ 证 券 研 究 报 告 传媒互联网行业动态点评 海运价格持续上涨,头部大卖抗风险能 力更胜 2024 年 06 月 24 日 【事项】 海运价格逆季节性持续上涨。受年初红海事件影响,中国出口集装箱 运价指数三四月份小幅回调后,再次持续上涨。较四月中旬低点,近 两个月 CCFI 综合指数上涨 46%。四月中旬至六月中旬,中国出口集装 箱运价指数:南非/南美/欧洲/东南亚/美西/地中海航线分别上涨 126%/110%/48%/48%/43%/36%。 【评论】 海运费上涨,受供需两端共同影响。供给端:1)地缘政治影响,红 海危机未解除:中东地区紧张氛围被再次点燃,航运船只绕行好望角, 航运干线运力周期增加,成本增加;2)船舶公司削减运力:船公司 削减有效运力致舱位紧张,引发涨价潮。需求端:1)消费旺季到来: 购物节大多集中在下半年,亚马逊 Prime 会员日 7 月全球举行,备货 需求增加;2)半托管模式兴起:Temu 等跨境电商平台开放半托管模 式,跨境卖家多平台运营增加海外仓备货。 头部大卖抗风险能力更胜一筹。海运费持续走高,卖家头程货运周期 拉长、费用成本增加,或导 ...

脑机融合,引领医疗健康新浪潮 2024 年 06 月 24 日 【投资要点】 脑机接口(Brain-Computer Interface,BCI )是在大脑与外部环境 之间建立起的、不依赖于外周神经通路的交流与控制通道,从而实现 大脑与外部设备的直接交互。脑机接口系统可以根据脑信号采集的方 式,分为侵入式和非侵入式脑机接口。脑机接口的学术探索始于 20 世纪 20 年代,经历科学论证阶段,目前正处于应用试验阶段中快速 发展。 全球脑机接口产业链仍处于初期发展阶段,上游设备尚未实现标准化 量产,BCI 芯片和算法是核心技术壁垒。目前,我国脑机接口平台的 核心组件仍然高度依赖进口,我国在此领域的国产化程度尚显不足。 此外,脑机接口在发展过程中面临着技术基础和商业化挑战等问题, 距离成熟产业化仍有很长的路要走。 医疗健康是目前脑机接口最大的市场应用领域,也是最主要且最接近 商业化的领域。根据 Precedence Statistics 的数据显示,2023 年全 球脑机接口市场规模为 23.5 亿美元,预计到 2033 年将达到 108.9 亿 美元,2024-2033 年的复合年增长率为 16.55%。目前我国脑 ...

重症医学政策出台,助推市场扩容 2024 年 06 月 24 日 【事项】 2024 年 5 月 6 日,国家卫生健康委会同国家发改委、教育部、财政部、 人社部、医保局、中医药局、疾控局等八部门,正式印发《关于加强 重症医学医疗服务能力建设的意见》。(以下简称《意见》)。 【评论】 《意见》指出,到 2025 年末,全国重症医学床位达到 15 张/10 万人, 可转换重症医学床位达到 10 张/10 万人,相关医疗机构综合 ICU 床 医比达到 1:0.8,床护比达到 1:3;到 2027 年末,全国重症医学床位 达到 18 张/10 万人,可转换重症医学床位达到 12 张/10 万人,重症 医学医疗服务资源有效扩容,区域布局更加均衡,专科服务能力显著 提升。根据 QY research 报告数据,预计我国重症监护市场规模到 2027 年将攀升至 16.37 亿美元,2021-2027 年 CAGR 为 7.41%, 《意见》颁布有望带来重症监护市场的进一步扩容。 与欧美发达国家相比,中国的人均 ICU 床位数仍有提升空间,《意见》 对重症医学床位数量提出要求,重症监护病房数量和 ICU 床位数量的 提升将进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianyue Advanced (688234) [4][6] Core Views - Tianyue Advanced's performance has reached an inflection point, driven by accelerated overseas validation and economies of scale [1] - The company achieved a significant turnaround in 2023, with revenue growth of 199.90% YoY and a narrowing net loss of 73.91% YoY [2] - In Q1 2024, the company continued its strong performance with a 120.66% YoY revenue increase and a return to profitability [2] - The company has maintained revenue growth for 8 consecutive quarters, with improving gross margins and profitability since Q3 2023 [2] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue reached 1.251 billion yuan, with a net loss of 46 million yuan [2] - Q4 2023 revenue was 426 million yuan, with a gross margin of 17.84% and net profit of 23 million yuan [2] - Q1 2024 revenue was 426 million yuan, with a gross margin of 21.92% and net profit of 46 million yuan [2] - The company forecasts 2024-2026 revenue of 2.134 billion, 3.032 billion, and 4.144 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 173 million, 230 million, and 423 million yuan [6][7] Operational Highlights - The company has established three major SiC semiconductor material production bases in Jinan, Jining, and Shanghai [2] - Shanghai Lingang factory achieved 300,000 wafer capacity by end-2023, with plans for 960,000 wafer capacity in phase two [2] - 2023 substrate sales reached 226,300 wafers, a 255% YoY increase, making the company a top-three global player in conductive SiC substrates [2] - The company has secured long-term agreements with major international players like Infineon and Bosch, with over 10% share in Infineon's 6-inch conductive substrate procurement [2] Technological Advantages - The company leads in automotive-grade conductive SiC substrates [2] - It has a leading position in 8-inch conductive substrate product layout, quality, and mass supply capabilities [2] - The company has pioneered the use of liquid-phase methods to produce low-defect 8-inch crystals, overcoming key challenges in SiC crystal growth [2] International Expansion - Overseas revenue reached 411 million yuan in 2023, an 822.26% YoY increase [2] - International business gross margin reached 28.95%, significantly higher than domestic operations [2] - The company has successfully entered the supply chains of leading overseas customers with high-quality conductive SiC substrates [2] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 22.736 billion yuan and a circulating market cap of 13.988 billion yuan [3] - It has established cooperation with over 50% of the world's top 10 power semiconductor manufacturers [2] - The company is actively supporting the industry transition to 8-inch products [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [12]. Core Insights - The company, Baoguang Co., Ltd. (600379), reported a significant increase in performance for Q1 2024, with revenue reaching 401 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16 million yuan, up 73% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to enhanced market expansion efforts, improved product sales structure, and benefits from tax incentives [1][12]. - Baoguang is a leader in the vacuum arc extinguishing chamber industry and is actively expanding into hydrogen energy, solar thermal, and energy storage sectors, aligning with global trends towards green and low-carbon energy [9][12]. - The global market for vacuum arc extinguishing chambers is projected to grow from 2.93 billion USD in 2024 to 3.7 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 4.7%. The company has achieved growth in both domestic and international markets, breaking through key technologies to reduce reliance on foreign products [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Baoguang's revenue was 401 million yuan, with a net profit of 16 million yuan, reflecting a 73% increase year-on-year. The company expects continued growth, projecting net profits of 104 million yuan, 125 million yuan, and 148 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][12][13]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2023 was 117.52 million yuan, with projections of 136.72 million yuan for 2024, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [13]. Industry Position - Baoguang is recognized as a champion in single-item manufacturing by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, maintaining the highest global sales volume in vacuum arc extinguishing chambers. The company is also focusing on the domestic market's rapid growth and the increasing pace of localization in various sectors [9][12]. - The company is actively involved in the development of high-voltage vacuum arc extinguishing chambers, with production capabilities expected to ramp up by July 2024 [2][12]. Growth Opportunities - The hydrogen energy and solar thermal sectors are identified as new growth points, with Baoguang's hydrogen business maintaining high capacity utilization rates and expanding into new markets [10][12]. - In the energy storage sector, Baoguang has established itself as a leading contractor for thermal power energy storage projects, including Asia's largest thermal power energy storage project [11][12].

光伏产品出口月报(2024年5月) 2024 年 06 月 21 日 【投资要点】 光伏电池组件:欧洲拉货持平,拉美非洲环比提升 1) 总量:2024 年 5 月,国内光伏电池组件出口 28.27 亿美元,环比 -0.88%,按照 Infolink 上月组件出口均价测算,国内 5 月光伏组 件(不含电池)出口 20.62GW,同比+8.54%,环比-1.33%。2024 年 1-5 月,国内光伏电池组件累计出口 147.47 亿美元,同比下降 33.28%。 2) 分区域:5 月国内出口欧洲光伏电池组件 13.58 亿美元,环比 -0.17%;出口亚洲 9.70 亿美元,环比-5.84%;出口拉美 3.01 亿 美元,环比+11.09%;出口非洲 1.26 亿美元,环比+13.75%。 3) 分发货地:5 月江苏出口 8.31 亿美元,环比-0.19%;浙江出口 7.57 亿美元,环比+17.48%。 光伏逆变器:需求持续复苏,浙江出口同环比提升 1) 总量:2024 年 5 月,国内光伏逆变器出口 7.80 亿美元,环比提 升 12.39%,自今年 2 月以来连续 3 月环比提升。2024 年 1-5 月, ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company [7][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the trends in the automotive and motorcycle sectors, with projected revenue growth from 2024 to 2026 [7]. - The motorcycle segment is experiencing strong international demand, with a notable increase in exports [22]. - The company has made significant advancements in research and development, particularly in electric vehicles and autonomous driving technologies [5][13]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 67.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.21 million yuan, down 84.35% [11][18]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.55%, and a net profit of 15.44 million yuan, down 62.05% year-on-year but up 141.10% quarter-on-quarter [11][18]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 72.85 billion yuan, 77.13 billion yuan, and 81.38 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.40 billion yuan, 1.56 billion yuan, and 1.92 billion yuan [7][14]. Segment Performance - The automotive segment generated a revenue of 37.34 billion yuan in 2023, while the motorcycle segment achieved 20.33 billion yuan [18]. - The motorcycle segment's revenue decreased by 4.37% in 2023, but the overall overseas business grew by 14.80% [22]. - The company has successfully launched several new models and is focusing on enhancing its product offerings in both domestic and international markets [5][22].