华利集团 300979.SZ 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 | | | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据业绩快报，我们下调公司盈利预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 3.03、3.68、4.30 元（原先分别为 3.71、4.22、4.83 元），参考可比公司，给予 2025 年 23 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价为 68.77 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：美国关税政策反复、海外需求下降、汇率波动等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 20,114 | 24,006 | 26,680 | 30,516 | 34,093 | | 同比增长 (%) | -2.2% | 19.4% | 11.1% | 14.4% | 11.7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,056 | 4,967 | 4,577 | 5,556 | 6,495 | | 同比增长 (%) | -1.2% | 22.5% | -7.8% | 21.4% ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 配置盘可以看收益率逢高增持 信用债市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 报告发布日期 2025 年 08 月 11 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | 徐沛翔 | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | 转债合理回调，看多逻辑不变：可转债市 场周观察 2025-08-04 信用债正在进入调整后的配置窗口期：信 用债市场周观察 2025-08-04 北交所打新：适合"固收+"的低回撤增厚 策略：固定收益市场周观察 2025-08-04 有关分析师 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [8] Core Insights - AI liquid cooling is transitioning from an optional to a necessary solution, with demand expected to drive rapid growth in market space and penetration rates [8] - The acceleration of ASIC layouts and the increase in domestic computing cluster scale will open new growth opportunities for the liquid cooling market [8] - The overseas supply gap in liquid cooling will provide opportunities for domestic suppliers to expand internationally, with expectations of moving from component supply to modular and integrated solutions [8] - The AI liquid cooling sector has high barriers to entry and significant value, suggesting a favorable competitive landscape and profitability in the medium to long term [8] Summary by Sections Liquid Cooling Market Dynamics - The demand for AI computing centers is driving the need for high-density GPU clusters, leading to a shift towards liquid cooling solutions [8] - Major cloud service providers are accelerating the development of customized ASICs and integrating liquid cooling solutions [8] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: - Yinvik (002837, Not Rated) - Yinlun (002126, Buy) - Feilong (002536, Not Rated) - Chuanhuan Technology (300547, Not Rated) - Xiangxin Technology (002965, Not Rated) - Sulian Technology (301397, Not Rated) - Zhongding (000887, Not Rated) [3]

Group 1: Inflation Trends - July CPI year-on-year growth was 0%, while core CPI growth was 0.8%, compared to previous values of 0.1% and 0.7% respectively[5] - Food prices are expected to exert downward pressure on CPI, with July food CPI at -1.6%[5] - The core CPI is anticipated to continue rising due to policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and improving living standards[5] Group 2: Policy Impact - Policies promoting consumption are expected to support high-end consumer goods and high-tech industries, maintaining elevated price indices[5] - The construction of a unified market and enhanced competition review is projected to help traditional and emerging industries recover prices[5] - The "anti-involution" policies are broadening their impact across various sectors, leading to positive changes in PPI, especially in technology and domestic demand-driven sectors[5] Group 3: PPI Performance - July PPI for certain sectors like arts and crafts, sports equipment, and nutritional food manufacturing showed year-on-year growth of at least 1.3%[5] - However, PPI in the mining sector remains under pressure, with July mining PPI at -14%[5] - External trade environment deterioration is causing PPI declines in key export sectors, with July PPI for general equipment manufacturing at -1.6%[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The current period is seen as an investment opportunity for the gold sector, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [8][12][13] - Economic indicators suggest that maintaining high growth is challenging, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [14] - The impact of tariffs is becoming evident, with expectations of rising inflation due to the depletion of low-cost inventories [15] Summary by Sections Gold Sector - The gold sector is viewed as a timely investment opportunity, with recent employment data indicating a shift towards lower growth expectations, enhancing the likelihood of interest rate cuts [13][14] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 20.1%, which is expected to further influence inflation in the coming quarters [15] Steel Sector - The steel industry is experiencing short-term profit fluctuations but is expected to stabilize and recover in the medium term due to the "anti-involution" policy [16] - Steel consumption has increased by 3.63% week-on-week, while production has shown a mixed trend with a notable rise in rebar production [21][18] - Overall steel inventory has risen, but structural improvements in demand are anticipated [23] - The cost of steel production is expected to stabilize, with short-term cost reduction potential diminishing [27] - Steel prices are projected to continue rising, supported by the "anti-involution" policy [36] New Energy Metals - The production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 20.95%, indicating strong supply dynamics [41] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial growth [45] - Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have generally increased, reflecting strong market conditions [50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the "One Certificate, One Product" policy for pesticides is expected to optimize the domestic formulation landscape in the medium to long term, addressing the issue of "one certificate, multiple products" that has led to chaotic competition in the market [8][14] - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a significant guiding policy for the manufacturing sector, aiming to eliminate unfair competition and establish a stable foundation for long-term industry growth [8][14] Summary by Sections Pesticide Formulation - The report highlights the competitive advantages of leading companies in the domestic pesticide formulation sector, recommending stocks such as Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), Hailier (603639, Buy), and Nuo Puxin (002215, Not Rated) [3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive structural opportunities for pesticide exports, with a focus on improving industry fundamentals [7] Market Trends - As of August 8, Brent crude oil prices decreased by 4.42% to $66.59 per barrel, influenced by increased supply from OPEC+ [10] - The price of formic acid surged by 28.6%, driven by tight market supply and strong demand, particularly in export markets [11][12] Price Movements - The report notes significant price increases for formic acid, liquid chlorine, and international urea, while crude oil and WTI prices saw notable declines [11][15] - PTA price spread increased by 224.7%, attributed to a decrease in PX prices due to falling international oil prices [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the recovery of the real estate sector and stock prices does not solely depend on the timing of policy implementation, but rather on the decline of the risk-free interest rate and the reduction of industry risk assessments [2][3]. - The real estate sector is entering a new bottoming phase, with the influence of the denominator (risk-free rate) now outweighing the numerator (fundamental factors), which is expected to lead to a rebound in stock prices [2]. - Confidence in national governance will bolster investor trust in policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - Beijing's recent policy changes, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road and increased support for housing provident funds, signal a positive shift for the market [4]. - The new policy is expected to stimulate demand in suburban areas, where over 80% of new residential sales occur, aiding in inventory reduction [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific stocks: China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy), Poly Developments (600048, Buy), Beike-W (02423, Buy), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), and Gemdale Corporation (600383, Accumulate) [9].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market has shown resilience, with a rapid recovery that exceeded some investors' expectations, leading to increased confidence [3][14][15] - It is anticipated that market confidence will continue to rise, with the expectation that indices will reach new highs throughout the year, viewing short-term pullbacks as part of an upward trend [4][15] - The technology sector is identified as a key investment theme, with a strong belief that it will continue to lead economic growth, particularly through advancements in artificial intelligence [5][16] Group 2 - Short-term focus is recommended on strong sub-themes within the technology sector, including robotics, liquid cooling, military information technology, and commercial satellites, which are expected to see significant developments and events [6][17] - The report highlights the potential of AI applications, particularly following the release of GPT-5, which is expected to enhance user experience and narrow the gap with domestic models, indicating a growing market for AI applications [7][18] - Domestic computing power and advanced processes are emphasized as foundational for national development, with expectations of continued policy support and potential catalysts in the second half of the year [7][19]

- The report discusses the dividend prediction model for the August contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures, with predicted dividend points of 1.02, 1.66, 3.49, and 2.45 respectively[5][9] - The annualized hedging costs for the August contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures, excluding dividends and calculated on a 365-day basis, are 5.90%, 8.26%, 17.00%, and 19.43% respectively[5][9] - The report suggests that investors should focus on the potential for basis repair in the SSE 50 index futures due to its significant discount, and consider long arbitrage opportunities while controlling position size and holding period[6][9] - For the CSI 300 index futures, the report recommends monitoring the pace of discount repair and considering long arbitrage strategies with spot or ETF combinations under controlled risk conditions[6][9] - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 index futures are noted for their deep discount levels, with annualized hedging costs of 17.00% and 19.43% respectively, and the report advises investors to focus on the potential for phase repair while assessing the associated hedging costs and volatility risks[6][9] - The process for predicting dividends involves estimating the net profit of component stocks, calculating the pre-tax total dividends for each stock, determining the impact of dividends on the index, and predicting the impact of dividends on each contract[21][23][24] - The theoretical pricing model for stock index futures is based on the no-arbitrage pricing model, considering discrete and continuous dividend distributions, with the formula for discrete dividends being $ \mathbf{D}=\sum_{\mathrm{i=1}}^{\mathrm{m}}\mathbf{D}_{\mathrm{i}}\,/(1+\phi) $ and for continuous dividends being $ (r d)(T-t) t t F S e − = $[30][31] - The remaining impact of dividends on the August contracts of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures is 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.06%, and 0.04% respectively[12] Model Backtest Results - SSE 50 index futures (IH2508), annualized hedging cost (excluding dividends, 365 days): 5.90%[10] - CSI 300 index futures (IF2508), annualized hedging cost (excluding dividends, 365 days): 8.26%[10] - CSI 500 index futures (IC2508), annualized hedging cost (excluding dividends, 365 days): 17.00%[11] - CSI 1000 index futures (IM2508), annualized hedging cost (excluding dividends, 365 days): 19.43%[12]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the return of market allocation forces, suggesting a cautious increase in credit positions, particularly in the 2-3 year range, with a potential configuration window around mid-August [4][10][11] - The expectation for the second half of the year remains a "dual bull market" for stocks and bonds, with stocks outperforming bonds, driven by market allocation dynamics [9][10] - The corporate perpetual bond market shows limited potential for excess returns in August, recommending a conservative approach with a focus on larger issuers [11][18] Group 2 - In the primary market for corporate perpetual bonds, issuance volume increased, with a total of 158 bonds issued in July, raising 171.5 billion yuan, a 9% increase from the previous month [18][19] - The financing cost for AAA and AA rated bonds decreased, with rates at 2.12% and 2.35% respectively, down 11 basis points and 18 basis points [18][19] - The sectors leading in issuance include public utilities, urban investment, and construction, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong being the top provinces for new bond issuance [20][21][22] Group 3 - In the secondary market, the yield on corporate perpetual bonds showed mixed results, with short-term yields remaining stable while medium to long-term yields increased, leading to passive compression of spreads [28][30] - The report notes that the majority of urban investment perpetual bonds maintained stable or slightly compressed spreads, while industrial bonds experienced slight widening [30][33] - The report highlights that the risk profile of asset-backed securities (ABS) remains attractive, with a focus on standardized underlying assets, despite limited opportunities in August [13][14]