行 业 农林牧渔行业 超配（维持） 农林牧渔行业双周报（2025/3/14-2025/3/27） 财报披露期到来 关注业绩催化 2025 年 3 月 28 日 投资要点： 风险提示：疫病大规模爆发，价格下行，自然灾害，市场竞争加剧等。 资料来源：iFinD ，东莞证券研究 所 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 SW农林牧渔行业跑赢沪深300指数。2025年3月14日-2025年3月27日，SW 农林牧渔行业上涨1.96%，跑赢同期沪深300指数约1.43个百分点；细分板 块中，动物保健、养殖业、渔业和农产品加工均录得正收益，分别上涨 5.97%、3.45%、0.87%和0.48%；种植业和饲料均录得负收益，分别下跌0.28% 和0.5%。估值方面，截至2025年3月27日，SW农林牧渔行业指数整体PB（整 体法，最新报告期，剔除负值）约2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) [1][5] Core Views - In 2024, China Pacific Insurance achieved an operating revenue of 404.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 44.96 billion yuan, growing by 64.9% year-on-year [1][5] - The report highlights the robust growth in new business value (NBV), which increased by 20.9% year-on-year, with a new business value margin of 16.8%, up by 3.5 percentage points [5] - The total investment income saw a significant rise of 130.5% year-on-year, amounting to 120.39 billion yuan, driven by favorable market conditions and strategic asset allocation [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the operating profit was 34.43 billion yuan, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, while the operating profit for life insurance was 27.59 billion yuan, up by 6.1% [1][5] - The total insurance premium income for life insurance reached 261.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.3% growth [5] Investment Strategy - The report notes an increase in the total investment yield to 5.6%, up by 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a strategic shift towards long-term bonds and equities [5] - The report anticipates a net profit of 47.40 billion yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PEV) of 0.54 as of March 27 [5][6] Market Position - As of March 27, the closing price was 32.20 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 284.45 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a standard rating for the non-ferrous metals and steel industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that copper prices are influenced by the expectation of US tariffs, while gold prices continue to reach historical highs [2][3] - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a mixed performance, with precious metals increasing significantly, while energy metals have declined [6][19] - The report suggests focusing on specific companies such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum for copper, and Chifeng Jilong Gold and Shandong Gold for gold investments [6][19] Market Overview - As of March 27, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has decreased by 0.43% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points, ranking 19th among 31 industries [13] - The steel industry has seen a decline of 2.36% in the same period, ranking 25th among the industries [13] - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals industry has increased by 13.15%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 13.21 percentage points, ranking 2nd [13] Subsector Performance - Within the non-ferrous metals sector, the precious metals segment rose by 4.42% in the last two weeks, while energy metals fell by 5.12% [19] - Year-to-date performance shows precious metals up by 19.98%, industrial metals up by 14.74%, and energy metals up by 7.39% [19] Price Analysis - As of March 27, 2025, LME copper price is at $9,846.50 per ton, while gold is at $3,099.20 per ounce, reflecting significant increases [29][38] - The report notes that the steel composite price index (CSPI) is at 94.86 points, with iron ore prices at 802 RMB per ton [44][48] Company Announcements - Shandong Gold reported a net profit of 2.952 billion RMB for 2024, a 26.8% increase year-on-year [53] - Yunnan Copper's net profit for 2024 was 1.265 billion RMB, a decrease of 19.9% [55] - Luoyang Molybdenum announced a 64.03% increase in net profit for 2024, reaching 13.532 billion RMB [57]

深 度 研 究 电力设备及新能源行业 超配（维持） 电力设备及新能源行业之变压器专题报告 星垂平野阔，月涌大江流 2025 年 3 月 28 日 投资要点： SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522050001 电话：0769-22119416 邮箱：liuxingwen@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：苏治彬 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523080001 电话：0769-22110925 邮箱：suzhibin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 研 究 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：刘兴文 变压器向智能化及节能环保化方向发展。变压器广泛应用于电力电 网、新能源、轨道交通、电动汽车充电桩、工业制造、基础设施建 设、房地产等行业。变压器的节能环保化有助于提高电能利用率， 减小输变配电过程中的电能和设备损耗，有效节约能源。随着行业 监管体系对变压器产品的智能化、节能环保化水平的要求不断提高， 变压器行业现有的头部企业丰厚的行业经验、充足的研发、生产和 ...

Group 1 - The generative artificial intelligence (AI) market is experiencing significant growth, with the global market size reaching approximately $36.06 billion in 2024, a 76% increase from the previous year. It is projected to reach $215.4 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56.33% from 2024 to 2028 [25][28]. - China is rapidly advancing in the AI sector, holding 36% of the world's large AI models as of Q1 2024, second only to the United States at 44%. The number of AI unicorns in China has reached 71, ranking second globally [17][20]. - The Chinese generative AI market is expected to grow from 17 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.09 trillion yuan by 2030, with a staggering CAGR of 93.41% [28][31]. Group 2 - The report highlights two key companies in the generative AI sector: Parallel Technology and Shuguang Data Innovation. Parallel Technology achieved revenue of 655 million yuan in 2024, a 32.07% increase year-on-year, and turned a profit with a net profit of 12 million yuan, up 114.32% [2][54]. - Shuguang Data Innovation focuses on liquid cooling data center infrastructure products, with significant revenue contributions from its cold plate and modular data center products, which accounted for 42.13% and 29.70% of its revenue in the first half of 2024, respectively [2][60]. - The AI software market in China is projected to reach $570 million in 2024, with expectations to exceed $850 million by 2025 and reach $3.54 billion by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 57% from 2024 to 2028 [29][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market index by more than 15% in the next six months [4][55]. Core Views - The company is a comprehensive energy supplier and service provider with its own gas sources, having evolved from primarily urban gas operations to a significant player in coalbed methane exploration and development [6][13]. - The company leads in technology, being the first in China to successfully adopt multi-branched horizontal well drilling technology and multi-layer fracturing techniques for coalbed methane development [6][43]. - The company is actively expanding high-quality oil and gas resources, with ongoing exploration and production in unconventional gas fields and new shale gas exploration rights acquired in 2024 [6][49][51]. - The company is rapidly advancing coal resource projects, having secured exploration rights for high-quality coal resources with significant estimated reserves [6][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company was established in 2002 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2016, initially focusing on urban gas business [6][13]. - It has long-term operating rights in several regions in Xinjiang for natural gas markets [6]. 2. Growth in Coalbed Methane Production - The company has seen rapid growth in coalbed methane production and sales, with total production reaching 1.704 billion cubic meters in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 16.16% [14]. - In the first half of 2024, production reached 0.971 billion cubic meters, up 16.23% year-on-year [14]. 3. Development of Oil and Gas Resources - The company operates three unconventional gas fields in Shanxi and Ordos, and has acquired shale gas exploration rights in Guizhou [49][51]. - It has also entered conventional oil and gas projects, acquiring significant exploration and production rights in the Kashgar North project [49][51]. 4. Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew from 2.617 billion yuan in 2021 to 3.517 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.92% [18][21]. - The net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 882 million yuan, a 30.28% increase year-on-year [18]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report projects earnings per share of 3.05 yuan, 3.60 yuan, and 4.06 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10x, 8x, and 8x [55][56].

证券研究报告 2025 年 3 月 28 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘震荡反弹，三大指数小幅上涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3373.75 | 0.15% | 5.05 | | | 深证成指 | 10668.10 | 0.23% | 24.28 | | | 沪深 300 | 3932.41 | 0.33% | 13.06 | | | 创业板 | 2145.10 | 0.24% | 5.19 | | | 科创 50 | 1040.57 | 1.12% | 11.52 | | | 北证 50 | 1331.17 | -0.69% | -9.22 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 医药生物 | 1.88% | 有色金属 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [2][8] Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in performance for the year 2024, with total revenue reaching 25.821 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.647 billion yuan, up 3.49% year-on-year [6][7] - The company maintains a stable gross profit margin of 29.88%, while the net profit margin decreased slightly to 14.12%, down 1.59 percentage points [6] - The company continues to implement its "one body, two wings, global layout" development strategy, with a leading position in the domestic gypsum board market and the largest global steel keel industry group [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 25.821 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.14% [6] - The operating profit was 3.974 billion yuan, up 2.43% year-on-year, and the net profit was 3.726 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.82% increase [6] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) for the year were 2.159 yuan, a growth of 3.5% [6] Cost and Expenses - The total sales expenses were 1.443 billion yuan, an increase of 51.84% year-on-year, while management expenses rose to 1.128 billion yuan, up 38.49% [6] - The overall expense ratio increased to 14.34%, up 1.85 percentage points [6] Asset Structure and Cash Flow - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at 23.96%, a slight increase of 1.36 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a stable asset structure [6] - Operating cash flow for the year was 5.134 billion yuan, an increase of 8.45% year-on-year, with a net inflow of 2.428 billion yuan in Q4 [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve EPS of 2.73 yuan and 3.21 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.5 times and 9 times [6][7]

超配（维持） 关注产能去化预期 布局超跌反弹 2025 年 3 月 27 日 专 S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源 iFinD，东莞证券研究所 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 农林牧渔行业 农产品之生猪养殖链专题报告 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： 预计2025年我国生猪供给整体较为宽裕，预计Q4有望回落。我国 能繁母猪存栏量于2023年初-2024年4月间下滑9%，于2024年5月-11 月间回升2.4%，于2024年12月开始出现下滑。截至2025年1月末， 我国能繁母猪存栏量达到4062万头，已连续两月减产，较2024年11 月末回落0.4%，未来仍有较大去化空间。2024年，我国生猪累计 出栏量70256万头，同比下降3.3%。截至20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the organic silicon industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The rapid expansion phase of production capacity in the organic silicon industry is nearing its end, and the supply-demand balance is expected to improve [3] - The demand for organic silicon materials is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of over 10% due to emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and electronics [60] - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top three companies holding a market share of 45.93% and the top six companies holding approximately 69.19% [34] Summary by Sections 1. Wide Application of Organic Silicon Products - Organic silicon is widely used in various fields including aerospace, electronics, construction, transportation, chemicals, textiles, food, light industry, and medical applications [14] - The market share of organic silicon deep-processing products in China includes RTV (37.0%), HTV (29.4%), silicone oil (28.3%), LSR (3.6%), and silicone resin (1.8%) [18] 2. Supply Side: End of Rapid Capacity Expansion - As of 2024, China's organic silicon intermediate capacity is 3.44 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.82% from 2019 to 2024 [25] - The industry is currently experiencing losses due to previous overcapacity, and new capacity additions are expected to be limited, with only 100,000 tons planned for 2025 [34] 3. Demand Side: Strong Growth in Emerging Applications - The apparent consumption of organic silicon intermediates in China is projected to grow from 1.0615 million tons in 2019 to 1.8164 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.34% [39] - The demand for organic silicon in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 16.40% from 2024 to 2030 [45] 4. Key Companies - Hoshine Silicon Industry (合盛硅业) focuses on the research, production, and sales of silicon-based new materials, with an organic silicon monomer production capacity of 1.73 million tons as of June 2024 [63]