2025 年 6 月 30 日 总量研究 各类行业主题基金普遍上涨，港股 ETF 资金显著净流入 ——基金市场与 ESG 产品周报 20250630 要点 市场表现综述：大类资产方面，本周（下文如无特殊说明，本周均指代 2025.6.23-2025.6.27）国内权益市场情绪高涨，创业板指领涨，原油指数大 幅回调。行业方面，本周各申万行业多数上涨，计算机、国防军工、非银金 融行业涨幅居前，石油石化、食品饮料、交通运输行业呈现回调。基金市场 方面，本周权益类基金净值表现占优，股票指数型基金上涨 3.11%，中长期 纯债型基金小幅回调。 基金产品发行情况：本周国内新基市场热度延续，新成立基金 43 只，合计 发行份额 317.82 亿份，6 月以来新成立基金数量份额创今年新高。本周新成 立基金包括债券型基金 9 只、混合型基金 12 只、股票型基金 17 只、FOF 基 金 3 只、REITs1 只、国际(QDII)基金 1 只。全市场新发行基金 21 只，从类 型来看，股票型基金 9 只、债券型基金 5 只、混合型基金 5 只、FOF 基金 1 只、REITs1 只。 基金产品表现跟踪：长期行业主题基金指数方面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a robust and high-quality growth in a weak demand environment, continuing to advance its dual-focus strategy [10] - For the fiscal year 2024/25, the company reported a revenue of 25.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.51 billion RMB, up 14.3% year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 57.3%, while the operating margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 19.2% [5][8] Financial Performance - The company’s main business segments showed varied performance: brand down jackets increased by 11%, OEM processing by 26%, women's wear decreased by 21%, and diversified clothing increased by 3% [6] - Online sales for the entire brand reached 7.58 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 9.3%, with the brand down jackets accounting for 34.5% of the revenue [6] - As of March 2025, the company had 3,470 down jacket stores, a net increase of 253 stores, reflecting a 7.9% growth [7] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s operating expenses ratio decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 38.5%, indicating effective cost control [8] - The inventory increased by 23.6% to 3.95 billion RMB, with inventory turnover days slightly increasing to 118 days [9] Strategic Focus - The company is committed to a dual-focus strategy centered on down jackets and fashionable functional apparel, aiming for steady growth despite external challenges [10] - The report anticipates continued revenue growth exceeding 10% for the main business segments, showcasing the resilience of the brand and operations [10] Earnings Forecast - The report projects revenue growth rates of 10.1% for FY2026 and 10.0% for FY2027, with net profit growth rates of 11.5% and 11.4% respectively [11] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for FY2026 is projected at 0.34 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing advantages of raw milk and structural upgrades that enhance profitability [1][2] - New product iterations and management empowerment are anticipated to drive long-term growth, with new products contributing over 10% to overall revenue [1] - The company’s flexible milk source structure, with 30% from self-owned farms, 30% from joint ventures, and 40% from social farms, allows for profit enhancement under cost advantages [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Projected revenue for 2023 is 10,987 million yuan, with a growth rate of 9.80%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 12,416 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.09% [3][9] - The company’s net profit for 2023 is estimated at 431 million yuan, growing to 931 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 14.30% [3][9] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 26.9% in 2023 to 29.3% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [11] Cost Structure and Product Mix - The company’s cost structure is expected to benefit from a reduction in raw milk prices, which have decreased to 3.04 yuan per kilogram as of June 2025 [2] - The product mix is shifting towards low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, which have higher gross margins compared to room-temperature products (40%+ for low-temperature fresh milk vs. 20%+ for room-temperature) [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.50 yuan in 2023 to 1.08 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 38 to 17 over the same period [3][12] - The report forecasts a return on equity (ROE) improvement from 16.85% in 2023 to 20.23% in 2027, indicating enhanced shareholder value [3][11]

2025 年 6 月 30 日 有色金属 铂价格创近 1 个月新高，多晶硅价格再创 2014 年以来新低 ——金属新材料高频数据周报（20250623-20250629） 要点 军工新材料：电解钴价格上涨。（1）本周电解钴价格 24.80 万元/吨，环比 +5.1%。本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值 0.92 ，环比-1.3%；电解钴和硫酸钴价格 比值为 5.06 ，环比+0.8%。（2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元/千克，环比+0%。 毛利 -8.56 元/千克。（3）铍价格本周持平。 新能源车新材料：硫酸钴价格上涨。（1）本周 Li2O 5%锂精矿中国到岸价 545 美元/吨，环比 +1.87%。（2）本周电碳、工碳和电池级氢氧化锂价格分 别为 6.04 、5.91 和 5.84 万元/吨，环比-0.3%、-1.05%和-1.8%。电碳与工碳 价差为 2024 年 11 月以来新低，或代表锂电景气度相较工业领域有所减弱。 （3）本周硫酸钴价格 4.88 万元/吨，环比+2.31%。（4）本周磷酸铁锂、 523 型正极材料价格分别为 3.03 、10.55 万元/吨，环比+0%、+0.7%。（5） 本周氧化镨钕价格 ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June 2025 is 49.7%, up from 49.5% in May, aligning with market expectations[2] - The production index increased by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, while the new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%[5] - Large and medium enterprises showed improved sentiment, with large enterprises' PMI rising to 51.2% and medium enterprises' PMI to 48.6%, while small enterprises' PMI fell to 47.3%[5] Economic Recovery Indicators - External disturbances have weakened, leading to a recovery in new export orders, which continue to rise[3] - High-energy-consuming industries are stabilizing, with their PMI increasing by 0.8 percentage points to 47.8%[15] - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, primarily due to the end of holiday effects, but remains in the expansion zone[27] Price and Inventory Trends - The raw material purchase price index rose to 48.4%, and the factory price index increased to 46.2%, both recovering from previous declines[23] - The raw material inventory index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 48.0%, indicating improved production activity[23] Construction Sector - The construction sector's business activity index rose significantly to 52.8%, reflecting a positive trend in housing construction activities[32] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market, which is expected to further improve supply-demand dynamics[33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The approval of domestic weight loss drugs marks a significant opportunity in the GLP-1 industry chain, with companies like Innovent Biologics (H), Heng Rui Medicine, and others being highlighted for their competitive advantages in sales and R&D capabilities [3][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of sales capabilities in the commercialization of weight loss drugs, suggesting that companies with strong sales execution will dominate the market [21]. - The overall pharmaceutical industry is expected to experience a positive trend due to expanding terminal demand, particularly in the GLP-1 sector [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week, the A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 1.60%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.35 percentage points and the ChiNext index by 4.11 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 sub-industries [1][15]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 2.85%, slightly outperforming the Hang Seng Index [1]. Company Updates - Recent developments include IND applications for HSK47388 by Haishi Ke and GR2303 injection by Zhixiang Jintai, among others [2][30]. - Heng Rui Medicine is conducting Phase III clinical trials for HRS-8080 and HRS9531, while other companies are in various stages of clinical trials [30]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a structural selection of investment opportunities based on payment willingness and ability, focusing on three payment channels: in-hospital payments, out-of-pocket payments, and overseas payments [4][27]. - Key recommendations include Heng Rui Medicine, Mindray Medical, and Yuyue Medical, among others [4][27]. Key Company Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Heng Rui Medicine is forecasted to have an EPS of 1.07 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 49, rated as "Increase" [5]. - Yuyue Medical and Mindray Medical are also highlighted with "Buy" ratings based on their projected earnings and valuations [5]. R&D Progress - The report tracks the R&D progress of various companies, noting significant advancements in clinical trials and IND applications [30][31]. Important Database Updates - The total number of hospital visits showed a year-on-year increase of 13.29%, indicating a recovery in healthcare demand [32]. - Basic medical insurance income reached 1,030.2 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, with a notable decrease in monthly income [41].

2025 年 6 月 30 日 总量研究 中报季将至，关注业绩线索 ——2025 年 7 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 要点 6 月 A 股港股市场有所回暖 6月A股主要指数普遍上涨，行业端涨跌分化。受市场情绪好转等因素影响，6月 （截至26日），A股主要指数普遍出现上涨，其中创业板指涨幅最大，6月份累 计上涨了6.1%。行业端涨跌分化，通信、非银金融、银行、有色金属等行业表 现较好，消费板块表现则较差，如食品饮料、美容护理、家用电器等行业。 6月港股市场震荡上行。6月受海外扰动缓和、国内风险偏好回暖等因素影响， 港股市场整体走势震荡上行。截至2025年6月26日，恒生香港35、恒生综合指数、 恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为5.0%、4.8%、4.4%、4.4%、 3.4%。 A股观点：关注业绩主线及稳定类资产 预计指数整体将维持震荡。短期外部风险扰动最严重的时候或许已经过去，但仍 需要对特朗普后续政策的反复保持警惕。近期国内政策仍积极发力，预计后续政 策仍将持续落地。随着中美两国为"对等关税"按下 90 天"暂停键"，短期内 出口或将保持高增，预计消费仍是经济修复的重要动能之一。内外因素交 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about the domestic breakthroughs in COC materials, packaging materials, and semiconductor materials, emphasizing the importance of "domestic substitution" in achieving supply chain security and reducing production costs for end products [1][22] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Materials - The global semiconductor sales are projected to reach approximately $630.5 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of about 19.7%, with the Asia-Pacific region expected to see a growth of 17.5% [4][38] - The steady growth in the semiconductor market is anticipated to drive an increase in demand for semiconductor materials, including photoresists and electronic specialty gases [4][43] COC/COP Materials - COC/COP, a high-end optical material, has shown significant potential, with Akolai's thousand-ton production line entering trial production in Q3 2024 [2][29] - COC/COP materials are characterized by high thermal deformation temperature, high transparency, low birefringence, and low dielectric loss, making them ideal for optical components [25][28] - The domestic production of COC/COP is gaining momentum, with several companies, including Akolai, making strides in industrialization [28][29] PSPI Materials - PSPI combines the functions of photoresist and dielectric insulation layer, showing promise in integrated circuits and OLED applications [3][35] - Domestic companies like Aolide and Dinglong have achieved breakthroughs in the localization of PSPI, indicating a potential increase in domestic supply [3][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-value new materials, particularly semiconductor materials, OLED supply chains, and wind power materials [5] - It also highlights the importance of monitoring the development of new capacities in the semiconductor materials sector [43]

Investment Rating - The mechanical industry is rated as "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the marginal decline in domestic demand for engineering machinery, while also emphasizing the advancements in humanoid robotics and related technologies [3][4][5] - The report suggests that 2025 will be a breakthrough year for humanoid robots, with mass production expected to drive the downstream supply chain [5] - The agricultural machinery market shows signs of improvement, with tractor exports increasing significantly [8] - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing short-term pressure on domestic sales, but export volumes are maintaining a growth trend [12] Summary by Relevant Sections Humanoid Robots - A joint research team has developed the world's first humanoid robot with high-resolution tactile perception and complete motion capabilities [3] - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk confirmed the integration of AI voice assistant Grok into the Optimus V3 humanoid robot [3] - Significant investments in humanoid robotics are being made, with companies like Galaxy General completing a financing round of 1.1 billion RMB [3][4] Machine Tools & Cutters - Japan's machine tool orders in May 2025 amounted to 128.716 billion JPY, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [6] - The report suggests that the machine tools and cutters sector is influenced by economic expectations, with potential improvements expected as policies are implemented [6] Agricultural Machinery - The agricultural machinery market sentiment index was reported at 43.5% in May 2025, indicating a slight year-on-year improvement [7] - Tractor exports from China increased by 12.3% in quantity and 31.1% in value during the first five months of 2025 [8] Engineering Machinery - In May 2025, excavator sales (including exports) reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [12] - Domestic sales of excavators decreased by 1.5%, while export sales increased by 5.4% [12] - The report anticipates a recovery in demand for engineering machinery as infrastructure investment is expected to remain high [12] Forklifts - Forklift sales in May 2025 reached 123,472 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [13] - The average working hours for forklifts increased by 22.5% month-on-month, indicating improved demand [13] Rail Transit Equipment - The report notes significant increases in the procurement of high-speed train maintenance projects by the National Railway Group [14] - The rail transit equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased railway investment and passenger flow recovery [14] Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the acceleration of domestic substitution for key semiconductor equipment due to increased tariffs [15][16] - The establishment of the third phase of the big fund, with a registered capital of 344 billion RMB, is expected to significantly boost the domestic semiconductor industry [16] New Energy Equipment - As of May 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of power generation in China reached 3.61 billion kW, a year-on-year increase of 18.8% [17] - The report highlights the rapid growth of photovoltaic power generation capacity, with a 57% year-on-year increase in new installations [17] Low-altitude Economy and EVTOL - Policies supporting the development of the low-altitude economy and EVTOL (Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing) aircraft have been introduced in various regions [18][19] - The report emphasizes the potential for the low-altitude economy to drive new industries and consumer spending [19]

Macro Analysis - Industrial enterprises' profit growth turned negative in May due to factors such as weakened export support, expanded year-on-year decline in industrial product prices, and lower profit margins [2] - The previously high-profit growth in the midstream equipment manufacturing sector also turned negative [2] - Future recovery of industrial enterprise profits remains uncertain due to overseas demand fluctuations, low industrial product prices, and insufficient effective demand [2] Market Strategy - The most severe external risk disturbances may have passed, but vigilance towards potential policy changes from Trump is still necessary [3] - With a 90-day pause on "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the US, exports are expected to maintain high growth in the short term, with consumption being a key driver of economic recovery [3] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile in the short term, focusing on domestic consumption, domestic substitution, and low allocation of funds [3] Bond Market - The convertible bond market saw significant gains, with the index rising by 2.1% for the week, marking the highest increase of the year [4] - The overall performance of the convertible bond market has outperformed the equity market since the beginning of 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 6.6% [4] - Future market performance will be influenced by fundamentals and macro policies, particularly in sectors aimed at boosting domestic demand [4] Quantitative Analysis - The market displayed a small-cap style, with significant excess returns from block trading combinations [6] - The Beta factor and liquidity factor achieved positive returns of 1.06% and 0.37%, respectively, while the market capitalization factor and residual volatility factor recorded negative returns [6] - The block trading combination outperformed the overall index by 1.16% [6] Industry Research Computer Industry - The report emphasizes the potential of stablecoins in the internationalization of the RMB, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like Newland, Lakala, and Newland [10] - Ant Group's competitive advantages in compliance, technology, and market penetration are highlighted, recommending attention to companies like Hengsheng Electronics and Longxin Group [10] Internet Media - The gaming industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with strong consumer sentiment and a robust pipeline of new products for the summer [11] - Recommendations include Tencent, NetEase, and Perfect World, with a focus on innovative gameplay in various segments [11] Renewable Energy - The wind power sector is expected to see continuous improvement in profitability due to stable prices and cost reductions [12] - The report also highlights the importance of upcoming policies in the photovoltaic sector and suggests monitoring developments in solid-state batteries and energy storage [12] Non-Ferrous Metals - LME copper inventories have dropped to a 22-month low, with domestic air conditioning production expected to decline by 13% year-on-year [13] - The report anticipates strong copper prices in the short term, recommending investments in companies like Zijin Mining and Western Mining [13] Real Estate - The real estate sector shows weak beta but highlights structural alpha opportunities in core cities [17] - Sales in major cities increased by 14.4% from January to May 2025, with a recommendation to focus on companies like China Resources Land and China Jinmao [17] Agriculture - The pig farming sector is expected to recover as inventory levels decrease, with a long-term view of profitability growth [16] - Recommended companies include Juxing Agriculture and Muyuan Foods, as the industry moves towards a long-term upward cycle [16]