Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: PB-ROE-50 **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the combination of Price-to-Book ratio (PB) and Return on Equity (ROE) to select stocks with high profitability and reasonable valuation[23] **Model Construction Process**: The PB-ROE-50 portfolio is constructed by selecting stocks with the top 50 combined scores of PB and ROE. The portfolio is rebalanced periodically, and adjustments are made based on the stock universe of different indices such as CSI 500 and CSI 800[23] **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates positive excess returns in specific stock pools, indicating its effectiveness in capturing value and profitability factors[23] - **Model Name**: Block Trade Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the principle that stocks with higher block trade transaction ratios and lower 6-day transaction amount volatility tend to perform better subsequently[29] **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed by selecting stocks with high block trade transaction ratios and low 6-day transaction amount volatility. The portfolio is rebalanced monthly[29] **Model Evaluation**: The model captures the information embedded in block trades, but its performance varies depending on market conditions[29] - **Model Name**: Private Placement Portfolio **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the event-driven strategy of private placements, considering factors such as market capitalization, rebalancing cycles, and position control[35] **Model Construction Process**: The portfolio is constructed using the announcement date of private placements as the event trigger. Stocks are selected based on their market capitalization and other factors, and the portfolio is rebalanced periodically[35] **Model Evaluation**: The model's performance is influenced by regulatory changes and market sentiment, showing mixed results in different periods[35] --- Model Backtesting Results - **PB-ROE-50 Model** - CSI 500: Weekly excess return 0.76%, absolute return 1.71%; YTD excess return 2.84%, absolute return 27.48%[24] - CSI 800: Weekly excess return 0.21%, absolute return 1.40%; YTD excess return 15.39%, absolute return 36.63%[24] - All Market: Weekly excess return -0.09%, absolute return 0.68%; YTD excess return 18.22%, absolute return 43.75%[24] - **Block Trade Portfolio** - Weekly excess return -0.16%, absolute return 0.61%; YTD excess return 39.03%, absolute return 69.06%[30] - **Private Placement Portfolio** - Weekly excess return -2.30%, absolute return -1.55%; YTD excess return -5.43%, absolute return 15.00%[36] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Profitability Factor (e.g., ROA, ROE) **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the company's profitability and operational efficiency, such as Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE)[12][13][14] **Factor Construction Process**: - ROA: Calculated as $ \text{ROA} = \frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Total Assets}} $ - ROE: Calculated as $ \text{ROE} = \frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Shareholder's Equity}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: Profitability factors generally show positive returns, especially in CSI 300 and CSI 500 stock pools[12][14] - **Factor Name**: Valuation Factor (e.g., PB, PE, EP) **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the valuation level of stocks, such as Price-to-Book ratio (PB), Price-to-Earnings ratio (PE), and Earnings Yield (EP)[12][14][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - PB: Calculated as $ \text{PB} = \frac{\text{Market Price per Share}}{\text{Book Value per Share}} $ - PE: Calculated as $ \text{PE} = \frac{\text{Market Price per Share}}{\text{Earnings per Share}} $ - EP: Calculated as $ \text{EP} = \frac{\text{Earnings per Share}}{\text{Market Price per Share}} $ **Factor Evaluation**: Valuation factors like PB and EP show significant positive returns in multiple industries[21] - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor (e.g., 5-day Reversal, 1-month Momentum) **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the trend-following or reversal behavior in stock prices over short-term periods[12][14][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - 5-day Reversal: Measures the return reversal over the past 5 days - 1-month Momentum: Measures the cumulative return over the past month **Factor Evaluation**: Momentum factors show mixed performance, with some negative returns in specific stock pools[12][14][16] - **Factor Name**: Liquidity Factor (e.g., Turnover Rate, Transaction Amount Volatility) **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the liquidity characteristics of stocks, such as turnover rate and transaction amount volatility[12][14][16] **Factor Construction Process**: - Turnover Rate: Calculated as $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\text{Trading Volume}}{\text{Total Shares Outstanding}} $ - Transaction Amount Volatility: Standard deviation of transaction amounts over a specific period **Factor Evaluation**: Liquidity factors generally show positive returns, especially in the CSI 500 and liquidity 1500 stock pools[12][14][16] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **Profitability Factors** - ROA: Weekly return 1.43% (CSI 300), 0.78% (CSI 500), 1.01% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - ROE: Weekly return 1.32% (CSI 300), 0.94% (CSI 500), 0.71% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - **Valuation Factors** - PB: Weekly return 0.67% (CSI 300), 0.77% (CSI 500), 1.06% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - EP: Weekly return -0.37% (CSI 300), 0.17% (CSI 500), 0.84% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - **Momentum Factors** - 5-day Reversal: Weekly return -1.25% (CSI 300), -0.48% (CSI 500), -1.44% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - 1-month Momentum: Weekly return 0.45% (CSI 300), 0.59% (CSI 500), 1.20% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - **Liquidity Factors** - Turnover Rate: Weekly return 0.75% (CSI 300), 1.68% (CSI 500), 0.84% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16] - Transaction Amount Volatility: Weekly return 0.47% (CSI 300), 1.01% (CSI 500), 0.56% (Liquidity 1500)[12][14][16]

2025 年 12 月 6 日 总量研究 公募 REITs 扩围至商业不动产，二级市场价格波动下跌 ——REITs 月度观察（20251101-202501130） 要点 1、 一级市场 截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，我国公募 REITs 产品数量达 77 只，合计发行规模达 1993.01 亿元（不含扩募）。从底层资产类型来看，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日， 交通基础设施类发行规模最大，共发行 687.71 亿元，园区基础设施类 REITs 发 行规模次之，为 329.33 亿元。 根据上交所及深交所项目动态披露，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，共有 20 只 REITs 处于待上市状态，其中 13 只为首发 REITs，另外 7 只为待扩募 REITs。 2、 二级市场表现 价格走势：2025 年 11 月 1 日-2025 年 11 月 30 日（以下简称"本月"），我 国已上市公募 REITs 的二级市场价格整体呈现波动下行的趋势。与其他主流大类 资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：黄金>纯债>REITs>原油>美股>可转债>A 股。 从项目属性来看，产权类 REITs 和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The convertible bond market rose slightly this week, and the equity market also had a small increase. Given the current volatility in the equity market, high - price and high - valuation convertible bonds may face adjustment pressure, and trading convertible bonds is difficult. It is recommended to comprehensively consider convertible bond terms and underlying stock conditions, select bonds carefully, and focus on structural opportunities and new bonds in high - prosperity industries [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 - From December 1, 2025, to December 5, 2025 (5 trading days), the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by +0.08% (last week's change was -0.27%), and the CSI All - Share Index changed by +0.77% (last week's change was +2.82%). Since 2025, the CSI Convertible Bond Index has risen by +16.27%, and the CSI All - Share Index has risen by +21.60% [1]. - By rating, high - rated bonds (AAA), medium - high - rated bonds (AA+), medium - rated bonds (AA), medium - low - rated bonds (AA -), and low - rated bonds (AA - and below) had weekly changes of +0.09%, -0.26%, -0.89%, -1.17%, and -1.31% respectively, with all but high - rated bonds declining [1]. - By convertible bond size, large - scale convertible bonds (bond balance > 2 billion yuan), medium - large - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1.5 and 2 billion yuan), medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 1 and 1.5 billion yuan), small - medium - scale convertible bonds (balance between 0.5 and 1 billion yuan), and small - scale convertible bonds (balance < 0.5 billion yuan) had weekly changes of -0.93%, -0.57%, +0.46%, -0.90%, and -1.37% respectively, with all but medium - scale convertible bonds declining [2]. - By conversion parity, ultra - high - parity bonds (conversion value > 130 yuan), high - parity bonds (conversion value between 120 and 130 yuan), medium - high - parity bonds (conversion value between 110 and 120 yuan), medium - parity bonds (conversion value between 100 and 110 yuan), medium - low - parity bonds (conversion value between 90 and 100 yuan), low - parity bonds (conversion value between 80 and 90 yuan), and ultra - low - parity bonds (conversion value < 80 yuan) had weekly changes of -2.74%, -1.23%, -1.67%, +0.11%, -0.89%, -1.31%, and -0.30% respectively, with all but medium - parity bonds declining [2]. Convertible Bond Price, Parity, and Conversion Premium Rate - As of December 5, 2025, there were 407 outstanding convertible bonds (410 at the end of last week), with a balance of 556.996 billion yuan (561.091 billion yuan at the end of last week). The average convertible bond price was 129.56 yuan (130.12 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 90.38% (from the beginning of 2023 to December 5, 2025). The average convertible bond parity was 100.82 yuan (100.90 yuan at the end of last week), with a percentile of 87.69%. The average convertible bond conversion premium rate was 30.76% (30.39% at the end of last week), with a percentile of 34.51% [3]. Convertible Bond Performance and Allocation Direction - Given the current situation, it is recommended to comprehensively judge based on convertible bond terms and underlying stock conditions, select bonds carefully, and focus on structural opportunities and new bonds in high - prosperity industries [4]. Convertible Bond Increase Situation - The top 15 convertible bonds in terms of weekly increase are listed, including YaKe Convertible Bond, WeiDao Convertible Bond, etc., along with their underlying stocks, industries, latest closing prices, convertible bond increases, and underlying stock increases [20].

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - The report anticipates a continued decline in credit activity due to insufficient demand and seasonal factors, with November loan growth expected to show a year-on-year decrease [1] - Government bonds remain the primary contributor to social financing, with the month-end growth rate projected to drop to approximately 8.4% [1] - M2 growth is expected to remain stable, while M1 growth is forecasted to decline, leading to a slight widening of the M2-M1 growth differential compared to the previous month [1] Group 2: Company Research on Andisu - Andisu is set to launch a new generation of sodium butyrate products, Sanion Tetra, and has released the latest version of the "Mackev Nutrition Guide" to assist global feed manufacturers [2] - The company's projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is estimated at 1.318 billion, 1.535 billion, and 1.784 billion respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

2025 年 12 月 4 日 行业研究 11 月金融数据前瞻：信用活动延续回落态势 ——流动性观察第 119 期 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 10 月金融数据前瞻：信贷季节性回落，社融、货 币降速——流动性观察第 118 期 9 月金融数据前瞻：社融增速回落，货币活化延续 ——流动性观察第 117 期 8 月金融数据前瞻： 社融增速或现拐点，存款活化 程度提升——流动性观察第 116 期 7 月金融数据前瞻：社融向上、贷款向下——流动 性观察第 115 期 如何看待股债跷跷板和 8 月流动性？——流动性观 察第 114 期 6 月金融数据前瞻：低基数效应下的季节性修复— —流动性观察第 113 期 7 月流动性：自发宽松——流动性观察第 112 期 5 月金融数据前瞻——流动性观察第 111 期 6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is set to launch a new generation of sodium butyrate products, Sanion Tetra, to strengthen its leadership in animal health management. Additionally, the updated McCaw® Nutrition Guide will provide global feed manufacturers with systematic vitamin nutrition references [1][2]. - The company is expanding its product and service matrix, focusing on high-concentration sodium butyrate solutions, which align with the global trend of reducing antibiotic use in livestock and promoting sustainable nutrition [2][3]. - The company is accelerating the development of specialty products and deepening its layout in the animal nutrition and health sector, supported by a "dual pillar" strategy that aims to balance its business structure while maintaining its global leadership in methionine [3]. Summary by Sections Product Development - The launch of Sanion Tetra aims to enhance the company's product matrix in animal health resilience management and respond to industry trends [2]. - The updated McCaw® Nutrition Guide expands the classification of animal species and production stages, providing comprehensive updates on recommended values based on current feed efficiency levels and new formulation technologies [2]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to benefit from its dual pillar strategy while maintaining its leadership in the methionine industry. The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is as follows: net profit of 1.318 billion, 1.535 billion, and 1.784 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.49, 0.57, and 0.67 yuan per share [4][10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 17.866 billion, 20.545 billion, and 23.627 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.01%, 15.00%, and 15.00% respectively [10]. Profitability and Efficiency - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 28.8% in 2025, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 7.97% [12][13]. - The operating profit margin is forecasted to be 11.1% in 2025, indicating a strong operational efficiency [12].

Group 1: Industry Research - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the expansion of public REITs into the commercial real estate sector, providing opportunities to revitalize a trillion-yuan asset market and accelerate market expansion [1] - The introduction of public REITs comes at a time when the real estate sector is under pressure, prompting a shift from "heavy development" to "heavy operation" for companies [1] - The report emphasizes the need for regulatory alignment and the importance of product valuation and operational quality in the short term, while anticipating accelerated market development with the expansion of product categories and regulatory improvements [1] Group 2: Company Research - The report notes that the company, Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ), has secured over 100 million USD in orders from North American data centers, leading to an upward revision of the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 0.6%, 5.1%, and 9.4% to 3.07 billion, 3.80 billion, and 4.58 billion yuan respectively [2] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 3.00, 3.71, and 4.47 yuan respectively [2] - The report indicates that as electricity demand in North America continues to grow, the company's service scope is expanding, and the power sector is expected to create a third growth curve for the company, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On November 28, 2025, the CSRC issued the "Announcement on Launching the Pilot Program of Commercial Real Estate Investment Trusts (Request for Comments)" to solicit opinions on the pilot program of commercial real estate investment trusts. On December 1, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission expanded the industry scope of infrastructure REITs to include commercial office facilities and urban renewal facilities, and added sub - categories such as stadiums, commercial complexes, and four - star and above hotels in consumer infrastructure [3][10][14]. - Launched during the real estate downturn, it provides an opportunity to revitalize the trillion - dollar commercial and office market. It can improve the asset structure of enterprises, help the real estate industry transform into a new development model, and enrich the types of underlying assets in the domestic public REITs market [3][10]. - It is necessary to pay attention to the institutional connection, and detailed rules are still awaited. The overall institutional framework of commercial real estate REITs follows that of infrastructure public REITs, and the specific categories and review mechanisms need further clarification. Implementing a dual - track review system may improve efficiency and accelerate market expansion. The applicability of the key expansion and recruitment mechanism and pilot tax policies in commercial REITs also needs attention [3]. - The secondary market of infrastructure public REITs is under short - term pressure. The valuation and operation quality of new products are the keys. The historical average dividend yields of Japanese office building REITs and hotel REITs are similar to those of current infrastructure public REITs equity - type products [3]. - Investment advice: In a low - interest - rate environment, high - dividend public REITs have an obvious interest - rate spread advantage. With the expansion of categories and improvement of the system, the market is expected to develop rapidly. Attention should be paid to the progress of new - category projects, products with strong underlying asset demand, and expansion and recruitment [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Public REITs Expand to the Commercial Field - On November 28, 2025, the CSRC solicited opinions on the pilot program of commercial real estate investment trusts, with the feedback deadline on December 27, 2025 [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to more industries and asset types. On December 1, 2025, it issued the "List of Industry Scope of Infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Projects (2025 Edition)", expanding to commercial office facilities, urban renewal facilities, and adding sub - categories in consumer infrastructure [14]. - In Q3 2024, there were 736 five - star hotels in China, accounting for 43.5% of the operating income of star - rated tourist hotels, and 2073 four - star hotels, accounting for 37.6%. The scope of the new expansion includes commercial office facilities (super - A and A - grade commercial buildings in super - large and large cities) and urban renewal projects (old - block and old - factory renovation projects), with isolation mechanisms set up [12]. 3.2 The CSRC Solicits Opinions on the Commercial REITs Pilot - Product definition: A commercial real estate investment trust fund is a closed - end publicly offered securities investment fund that invests in commercial real estate asset - backed securities to obtain the ownership or operating rights of commercial real estate, operates and manages commercial real estate to obtain stable cash flows such as rent and fees, and distributes the main income to fund share holders [15]. - Application process: To apply for the raising of a commercial real estate investment trust fund, the fund manager should submit the registration application materials stipulated by the "Securities Investment Fund Law" and the CSRC to the CSRC [20]. - Current situation of infrastructure public REITs: The current application process is "local NDRC - national NDRC - CSRC", with a long review process and a relatively small market scale. As of November 30, 2025, the issuance scale of the public REITs market (initial offering and expansion and recruitment) was about 209.5 billion yuan, and the market value was about 219.9 billion yuan. For commercial real estate assets with a higher degree of marketization, applying only to the CSRC can shorten the review process and accelerate market expansion [25]. - The scale of China's commercial real estate is huge, about 40 - 50 trillion yuan. Some enterprises are preparing for relevant application work, such as Fosun's progress in the independent listing plan of Sanya Atlantis through the REITs model [25]. 3.3 Pay Attention to the Institutional Connection - The overall institutional framework of commercial real estate REITs follows that of infrastructure public REITs. The "Request for Comments on Commercial REITs" is more concise in terms of the requirements for fund managers and custodians, fund manager responsibilities, and asset requirements. The asset sub - types in the "List of Industry Scope of Infrastructure Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Projects (2025 Edition)" are more specific [26]. - Implementing a dual - track review system for infrastructure public REITs and commercial real estate REITs can provide more choices for issuers, improve review efficiency, and accelerate market expansion. The applicability of the expansion and recruitment mechanism and pilot tax policies in commercial REITs needs attention [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has secured multiple contracts exceeding $100 million for gas turbine generator sets, marking a significant entry into the North American data center market [1] - The company aims to create a comprehensive lifecycle solution starting with gas turbine generator sets, leveraging its modular and intelligent power generation solutions to meet the growing electricity demand in North America [2] - Strategic partnerships with international giants like Baker Hughes and Siemens have been established to ensure core production capacity for future order demands in data centers [3] Financial Projections - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards by 0.6%, 5.1%, and 9.4% to reach 3.07 billion, 3.80 billion, and 4.58 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.00, 3.71, and 4.47 yuan [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 16.50 billion, 19.65 billion, and 22.84 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 23.58%, 19.06%, and 16.25% respectively [5] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of approximately 33% over the forecast period, with a projected return on equity (ROE) increasing from 12.7% in 2023 to 15.0% in 2027 [10] Market Position - The company is positioned to develop its power segment as the third growth curve following its drilling and natural gas segments, driven by expanding electricity demand in North America [2][4] - The current market capitalization is approximately 61.35 billion yuan, with a total share count of 1.024 billion shares [6] Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 25 in 2023 to 13 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [11] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.2 in 2023 to 2.0 in 2027, reflecting a strengthening balance sheet [11] Operational Highlights - The company’s gas turbine generator sets are designed for rapid transport and flexible expansion, addressing challenges such as tight project timelines and limited space [2] - The company has initiated business and team development in various lifecycle service areas, including small modular reactor (SMR) power supply and data center management [2] Strategic Partnerships - The company has signed a global strategic cooperation agreement with Baker Hughes for the NovaLT™ gas turbine, ensuring future production capacity [3] - A strategic cooperation agreement with Siemens has also been established to enhance the company’s capabilities in gas turbine technology [3]

Group 1: Automotive Industry - The delivery data for new forces in November shows a weakening of the year-end peak season effect, with significant purchase discounts from automakers [1] - Recommended stocks include NIO and Xpeng Motors, with a focus on low valuation and performance realization [1] - In the parts sector, recommended stocks are Fuyao Glass for its strong performance and overseas expansion, and Wuxi Zhenhua, Huguang Co., and Bojun Technology for their cheap valuations [1] Group 2: Aerospace and Construction Materials - The commercial aerospace sector is entering a new phase of rapid development, with a three-year action plan recently announced [2] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the rocket sector with companies like Chaojie Co., Gaohua Technology, and Zhongheng Design, as well as in the satellite sector with firms such as Shaanxi Huada and Shanghai Port [2] Group 3: Real Estate - The sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies in November was 244.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.7% [3] - Cumulative sales for the top 100 companies from January to November reached 3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 18.8%, indicating a worsening trend [3] - Investment suggestions focus on structural alpha opportunities, recommending China Jinmao, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Mixc Life, and Greentown Service [3] Group 4: Company Research - Water Sheep Co. has announced an employee stock ownership plan, reflecting confidence in long-term development [4] - The plan involves up to 938 participants and a funding source of no more than 51.04 million yuan, with shares repurchased at 20.46 yuan per share [4] - The repurchased shares will not exceed 2.49 million shares, accounting for 0.64% of the total share capital [4]