一、存量市场概览 上周（2025.6.9-2025.6.13，下同）地方政府债市场持续扩容，截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日，地方债存量规模达到 51.1 万 亿元。从地方债类型分布来看，存续的地方债中新增专项债规模占比超过 43%，再融资专项债占比为 21%。进一步细 分专项债的募集资金投向，明确资金用途的存量债中，棚户区改造、园区新区建设、乡村振兴是规模较大的投向领域， 存量余额分别为 1.96 万亿、1.57 万亿和 1.12 万亿元。其次收费公路存量余额超过 8800 亿元，水利和生态项目存量 余额也在 2000 亿以上。截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日，广东、江苏、山东地方债存量规模仍位居三甲，存量规模分别为 3.39 万亿元、3.28 万亿元和 3.1 万亿元，其余 GDP 大省如四川、浙江、湖南、河南、河北、湖北存量规模也位于 2 万亿以 上。 二、一级供给节奏 上周地方政府债共发行 1077.85 亿元，其中，新增专项债 70.72 亿元，再融资专项债 400.07 亿元。分募集资金用途 来看，"普通/项目收益"和"偿还地方债券"是专项债资金的主要投放领域。截至 2025 年 6 月 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive "pause" since the beginning of the current rate cut cycle in September 2024 [2] - Economic forecasts indicate a heightened concern over "stagflation," with the Fed lowering growth projections while raising inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [2][3] - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts in 2025, but the number of committee members who believe no cuts are needed has increased from four to seven since March, indicating a hawkish stance [2][3] Economic Forecasts - The Fed has revised down the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, while raising core PCE inflation forecasts to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2] - Unemployment rate forecasts have been adjusted upward to 4.5% for 2025 and 2026, and 4.4% for 2027 [2] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in the summer, with Powell indicating that high tariffs are likely to push inflation up and exert pressure on economic activity [3] - The transmission of tariffs to final consumers is anticipated to take time, with many companies expected to pass on the costs to consumers [3] Monetary Policy Guidance - Powell stated that rate cuts could come quickly or may take time, depending on the labor market and economic pressures [3] - The current Fed stance is described as "passive and reactive," with potential for rate hikes if stagflation risks intensify [3] Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to perform well amid a potential "hard landing" in the U.S. economy, driven by factors such as dollar depreciation and renewed Fed rate cuts [4] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is seen as having upside potential during the Fed's rate cut cycle, with expectations of improved margins and revenue [4] - U.S. equities face significant adjustment risks due to stagflation concerns, with both earnings and valuation pressures anticipated [4] - U.S. Treasuries may present a trend-following opportunity only after inflation declines, with potential for rapid interest rate increases beforehand [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the industry, indicating that a series of proactive measures by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will further promote the virtuous cycle of technology, capital, and industry, benefiting technology innovation enterprises and enhancing the vitality of the capital market [4]. Core Insights - The current state of China's stock market, including the main board, Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Growth Enterprise Market, Beijing Stock Exchange, and New Third Board, has significantly contributed to the development of technology enterprises, with private equity and venture capital funds investing in 90% of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Beijing Stock Exchange, and over half of the companies listed on the Growth Enterprise Market [2]. - Challenges such as insufficient patient capital, low risk tolerance in financial supply, and inadequate incentive and constraint mechanisms need to be addressed [2]. - Future reforms will focus on enhancing the financing channels for unprofitable high-quality technology enterprises, strengthening the advantages of stock-bond linkage in technology innovation, and fostering a more open and inclusive capital market ecosystem [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Current Achievements and Issues - The report highlights the achievements in promoting technology innovation and the existing issues that need to be resolved, such as the lack of patient capital and low risk tolerance in financial supply [2]. Section 2: Future Reform Directions and Key Measures - Key measures include accelerating the introduction of the "1+6" policy to support unprofitable technology enterprises, enhancing the development of Sci-Tech bonds, and promoting the participation of long-term capital in private equity investments [3]. Section 3: Support for Technology Companies - The report emphasizes the need to support technology companies in becoming stronger and better, with improved regulatory frameworks and mechanisms for mergers and acquisitions [3]. Section 4: Capital Market Ecosystem - The report discusses the importance of creating a more open and inclusive capital market ecosystem, including optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system and expanding foreign investment participation [3].

- The "Style Rotation Fund Selection Strategy" is based on the dimensions of growth value and market capitalization, constructing an absolute active rotation indicator to identify whether a fund is a style rotation fund or a style stable fund. The strategy uses a semi-annual rebalancing approach, adjusting positions at the end of March and August each year, and the fund selection range includes equity-biased hybrid funds and ordinary stock funds, with transaction costs deducted[4][46][51] - The "Comprehensive Fund Selection Strategy Based on Fund Characteristics and Capabilities" constructs selection factors from multiple dimensions such as fund size, holder structure, fund performance momentum, stock selection ability, hidden trading ability, and gold content, and performs equal-weight synthesis. The strategy uses a quarterly rebalancing approach, adjusting positions at the end of January, April, July, and October each year, with transaction costs deducted[5][55][60] - The "Fund Selection Strategy Based on Trading Motivation Factors and Stock Spread Income Factors" combines the trading motivation factors of funds with the stock spread income factors from the fund's profit statement. The strategy aims to select funds with high stock spread income, active trading motivation, and low likelihood of performance manipulation. The strategy uses a semi-annual rebalancing approach, adjusting positions at the end of March and August each year, with transaction costs deducted[6][61][66] - The "Fund Manager Holding Network Trading Uniqueness Fund Selection Strategy" constructs a network based on the details of fund managers' holdings and transactions, and constructs an indicator of the uniqueness of fund managers' transactions. The strategy uses a semi-annual rebalancing approach, adjusting positions at the beginning of April and September each year, with transaction costs deducted[7][67][74] - The "Style Rotation Fund Selection Strategy" achieved a return of -0.08% in May 2025, with an excess return of -1.11% relative to the Wind equity-biased hybrid fund index[4][46][51] - The "Comprehensive Fund Selection Strategy Based on Fund Characteristics and Capabilities" achieved a return of 0.18% in May 2025, with an excess return of -0.88% relative to the Wind equity-biased hybrid fund index[5][55][60] - The "Fund Selection Strategy Based on Trading Motivation Factors and Stock Spread Income Factors" achieved a return of -0.96% in May 2025, with an excess return of -1.98% relative to the Wind equity-biased hybrid fund index[6][61][66] - The "Fund Manager Holding Network Trading Uniqueness Fund Selection Strategy" achieved a return of -0.06% in May 2025, with an excess return of -1.09% relative to the Wind equity-biased hybrid fund index[7][67][74]

Group 1: Relationship Dynamics - The initial close relationship between Trump and Musk was characterized as a "honeymoon period," with Musk seen as a key asset in addressing inflation and national debt issues[5] - The relationship deteriorated due to fundamental ideological conflicts, particularly Musk's global business philosophy clashing with Trump's protectionist policies[6] - Musk's exit was catalyzed by significant policy disagreements, including the "Big Beautiful Bill" expected to add $3 trillion to the deficit, undermining Musk's debt reduction efforts[7] Group 2: DOGE Initiative and Impact - During Musk's 130-day tenure, the DOGE initiative achieved approximately $175 billion in spending cuts, equating to 8.75% of the $2 trillion target[13] - Approximately 280,000 personnel were laid off or voluntarily left during this period, highlighting the aggressive management style Musk employed[13] - Despite these achievements, systemic resistance within the bureaucratic structure limited the effectiveness of Musk's reforms, indicating deep-rooted inefficiencies in the U.S. government[14] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Trump's commitment to fiscal sustainability remains strong, with potential shifts towards a more systematic DOGE 2.0 phase led by insiders like Russell Vought[3] - The market's perception of Trump's fiscal discipline may be underestimating his resolve to address long-term debt sustainability, which could lead to significant asset revaluation risks[3] - Risks include potential government re-engagement in fiscal stimulus and Trump's interference with Federal Reserve independence, which could alter deficit reduction priorities[4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of 40.85 RMB based on a 20x PE for 2026 [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery of European offshore wind demand, with a projected doubling of order volume in 2025 compared to the previous year, driven by upcoming project deadlines and favorable market conditions [2][3]. - The company has achieved a market share of approximately 20% in the European monopile market, second only to local leader Sif, and is anticipated to continue increasing its market share due to capacity expansion and green manufacturing initiatives [3][42]. - The company’s revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate substantial growth, with revenues expected to reach 58 billion RMB in 2025, 73 billion RMB in 2026, and 95 billion RMB in 2027, alongside net profits of 960 million RMB, 1.3 billion RMB, and 1.83 billion RMB respectively [4][7]. Summary by Sections European Offshore Wind Market Outlook - The European offshore wind market is experiencing a recovery in project profitability due to declining interest rates and favorable policy adjustments, with a projected installation capacity of approximately 52 GW from 2025 to 2030 [2][13]. - The report estimates that the company could secure between 290,000 to 440,000 tons of monopile orders in 2025 under various market share scenarios [3][64]. Company’s Competitive Position - The company is the only domestic firm to have delivered multiple monopile projects in Europe, achieving a market share of around 20% from 2022 to 2024 [42][46]. - The company’s new production capacity at the Tangshan Caofeidian base is expected to reach 800,000 tons per year, enhancing its ability to meet the large-scale demands of European projects [3][50]. Profitability and Revenue Growth - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 54% in 2025, followed by 26% and 29% in the subsequent years [4][7]. - The overseas revenue contribution is expected to rise, with a notable increase in profit margins from high-value offshore wind orders [65][70]. Additional Business Developments - The company is actively developing its own marine transport vessels to enhance service value and efficiency in delivering offshore wind products [78]. - The company has secured several renewable energy project indicators, with ongoing projects expected to contribute additional revenue starting in 2025 [80].

截至 2025 年 6 月 16 日，存量信用债估值及利差分布特征如下： 公募城投债中，江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.4%以下；收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级； 其余区域中，云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，公募城投债收益率普遍下行，3-5年品种平均下行达到3.7BP。 具体来看，收益下行幅度较大的品种的包括 1 年内内蒙古地级市非永续、1-2 年吉林区县级非永续、1-2 年黑龙江地 级市非永续及 3-5 年吉林地级市非永续城投债。 私募城投债中，上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 2.8%以下；收益率高于 4%的品种出现 在贵州、陕西地级市、云南地级市及区县级；其余的甘肃、黑龙江等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，私募城投债收益 率基本下行，2-3 年、3-5 年品种平均下行 3BP、5BP 之多。具体来看，收益率下行幅度较大的有 1 年内辽宁地级市非 永续、3-5 年广西区县级非永续、3-5 年青海区县级非永续、3-5 年河北地级市永续债，分别对应下行 20.6BP、19.9BP、 18.6BP 和 13.7BP。 存量信用债中，民企地产债和产业债估值收益率 ...

* [10] M. C. ETF 市场回顾 从一级市场资金流动情况来看，上周（2025.6.9-2025.6.13）已上市 ETF 资金净流入合计 1.45 亿元，其中债券型 ETF 资金净流入 144.82 亿元，商品型 ETF 资金净流入 19.79 亿元，跨境 ETF 资金净流入 9.50 亿元，股票型 ETF 资金净流 出 172.66 亿元。 在股票型 ETF 中，宽基 ETF 上周资金净流入-120.78 亿元，上周科创 50ETF 资金净流入 24.51 亿元，中证 A500ETF 资 金净流出超 40 亿元。 主题行业 ETF 上周资金净流入-27.78 亿元。上周周期、高端制造、消费板块 ETF 资金净流入额分别为 7.44 亿元、6.70 亿元、6.18 亿元，金融地产、科技、医药生物板块 ETF 资金净流出额分别为 7.61 亿元、14.09 亿元、26.74 亿元。 本周共有 7 只 ETF 产品发行，其中包括 4 只行业 ETF 以及 1 只 A50 增强策略 ETF。首只中证 A50 增强策略 ETF 本周发 行，基金管理人为易方达基金。 主动权益及增强指数型基金表现跟踪 主动权益 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company, with a target price of 633.95 HKD per share based on a PE of 40.0X for 2025E [5]. Core Views - The tea beverage market in China is expected to grow significantly, with a projected CAGR of 19.2% from 2024 to 2028, driven by increased penetration and consumption frequency [3][17]. - The company holds a dominant position in the market, with a 20.2% market share in the overall tea beverage sector and a 57.0% share in the sub-10 RMB price segment, indicating strong competitive advantages [3][29]. - The company's core strengths include a robust supply chain, strong brand recognition, and a focus on cost-effective products, which have helped maintain profitability even in a challenging market environment [3][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Mixue Ice City, is the leading brand in China's fresh tea beverage market, with 46,479 stores globally by the end of 2024, achieving a CAGR of 32% from 2021 to 2024 [2][33]. - The company went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in March 2025, raising approximately 3.46 billion HKD, primarily for supply chain development [2][36]. Industry Analysis - The fresh tea beverage market in China reached a size of 211.5 billion RMB in 2023, with a significant growth trajectory expected due to increased consumer demand and market penetration [17][25]. - The competitive landscape is favorable for low-priced tea beverages, with Mixue Ice City being the clear leader, benefiting from consumer preferences for value [3][29]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages its strong supply chain, with over 60% of its ingredients sourced in-house, allowing for cost control and quality assurance [3][5]. - The brand's marketing strategy, including the successful "Snow King" IP, has enhanced its visibility and consumer engagement, contributing to its market leadership [3][5]. Future Growth Prospects - The company plans to continue expanding its domestic footprint while also exploring international markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where demand for fresh beverages is rising [4][5]. - The introduction of the "Lucky Coffee" brand aims to capture the growing coffee market, with plans to lower franchise entry barriers to accelerate growth [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 310.8 billion RMB, 353.2 billion RMB, and 390.2 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 55.0 billion RMB, 64.4 billion RMB, and 73.8 billion RMB [5][9].

Group 1: Overall Report Summary - The reading of the bond market micro - trading thermometer increased by 5 percentage points to 48%. Except for the spread congestion, the average quantile of other indicators rose. High - congestion indicators include the purchase volume of ultra - long bonds by funds [2][14]. - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range increased slightly to 15%. Among 20 micro - indicators, 3 were in the over - heated range (15%), 9 were in the neutral range (45%), and 8 were in the cold range (40%). The TL/T long - short ratio moved from the cold to the neutral range, while the allocation disk strength and the stock - bond ratio moved from the neutral to the cold range [3][19]. Group 2: Indicator Category Analysis Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 17%, in the neutral range increased to 67%, and in the cold range decreased to 17%. The TL/T long - short ratio quantile rose 40 percentage points to 49%, moving from the cold to the neutral range. The 30/10Y and 1/10Y relative turnover rate quantiles rose 24 and 14 percentage points respectively, driving the average trading heat quantile up 13 percentage points [5][21]. Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 25%, in the neutral range dropped to 38%, and in the cold range rose to 38%. The allocation disk strength quantile dropped 35 percentage points to 33%, moving from the neutral to the cold range. The average institutional behavior quantile rose slightly by 2 percentage points [6][26]. Spread Indicators - The spread quantile average dropped slightly by 1 percentage point. The market spread dropped 4 percentage points, while the policy spread quantile rose 2 percentage points. The policy spread narrowed slightly by 1bp to 3bp, with the quantile rising to 43% and remaining in the neutral range. The average of credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - National Development spread widened slightly by 1bp to 18bp, with the quantile dropping 4 percentage points to 40% and remaining in the neutral range [4][7]. Comparison Ratio Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the cold range rose to 100%. The stock - bond ratio quantile dropped 2 percentage points to 38%, moving from the neutral to the cold range. The commodity and real - estate comparison ratio quantiles rose 5 and 4 percentage points respectively, remaining in the cold range. The consumer goods comparison ratio remained in the cold range. The average comparison ratio quantile rose 2 percentage points [8][33].