Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The nuclear fusion sector is entering a period of intensive capital expenditure, with ongoing tenders for auxiliary power systems, suggesting significant investment opportunities in related companies [6][24] - The "marine economy" and "deep-sea technology" policies are emerging, highlighting the importance of high-end marine equipment manufacturing, particularly in shipbuilding and deep-sea robotics [6][25] - Demand for forklifts is slightly better than expected, with sales in May reaching 123,472 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, indicating potential growth in the smart logistics and robotics sectors [6][25] - The general machinery sector is experiencing a slowdown, while engineering machinery shows a stable upward trend, and railway equipment is also on the rise [26][36][47] Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 2.16% in the week of June 16-20, 2025, ranking 19th among 31 primary industry categories [3][14] - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 3.75%, ranking 8th among the same categories [3][18] Key Data Tracking - General machinery is experiencing a downturn, with May manufacturing PMI at 49.5, indicating a contraction [26] - Engineering machinery sales in May reached 18,200 units, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, indicating a stable market [36] - Railway fixed asset investment and passenger volume are both showing positive growth, suggesting a recovery in demand [47] Industry Dynamics - The nuclear fusion sector is seeing significant capital investment, with individual experimental pile projects costing tens to hundreds of billions [6][24] - The marine economy is being prioritized by government policies, with a focus on shipbuilding and deep-sea technology [6][25] - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with potential for recovery driven by geopolitical factors and OPEC's production decisions [51] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks to watch include Hezhong Intelligent, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, China Shipbuilding, and China CRRC, among others [12]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the outdoor apparel sector, particularly with the anticipated IPO of Berghaus, which is expected to boost market sentiment [10][19]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector showed strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, with domestic brands gaining momentum and top brands maintaining a stable market position [1]. - Berghaus, a leading high-performance outdoor apparel brand, reported a revenue of 1.766 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 94.5% year-on-year increase, with a three-year CAGR of 116% [2][11]. - The report highlights the growth of domestic beauty brands during the 618 festival, with significant sales increases across various platforms [1][2]. Industry Data Tracking - Retail sales in May showed a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending, aided by favorable weather and the early 618 promotions [20][23]. - The report tracks various industry segments, indicating a stable upward trend in outdoor sports, beauty, and medical aesthetics sectors, while other segments like textile raw materials are under slight pressure [3]. Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, the report recommends brands like Hailan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and has strong profitability potential [4][31]. - In the beauty sector, it suggests focusing on companies like Juzhi Biotechnology and Jinbo Biotechnology, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming periods [4][31]. Market Review and News - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector experienced a decline of 5.12% in the recent week, with specific companies like Li Ning and Fengzhu Textile showing positive performance [5][27]. - It also highlights the digital transformation initiatives in the textile industry, aiming for over 70% digitalization in key business processes by 2027 [33].

国补后续 1320 亿资金将于 7 月、10 月分批下达，618 拉动下 5 月双线零售高增 部分地区补贴额度紧张，6 月以来国补进入调整阶段。据国家发改委、财政部等，25 年计划向地方安排 3000 亿元国 债资金加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，上半年共向地方下达 1620 亿中央资金以支持消费品以旧换新。截至 5 月 31 日， 国补资金消耗总额达 1550-1650 亿，约占到全年规模 50%左右。受国补资金消耗偏快影响，6 月起，部分区域如重庆、 江苏、广东、湖北等宣布国补政策进入阶段性调整。 下半年国补接续已确定，剩余资金将于 7 月、10 月下达。据国家发改委、财政部，上半年共下达 1620 亿资金支持以 旧换新，剩余 1380 亿将于 7 月、10 月分批下达，确保各地于 7 月陆续重启申领。据各地政府/商务厅通知，重庆第二 阶段政策已在起草过程中，江苏恢复线上申领并实施每日限额策略，广东部分城市恢复线下操作，湖北也将于 6 月下 旬恢复。此外，下半年补贴或通过分领域、分时段等方案细化资金的使用方式，确保政策更加平稳有序、资金均衡使 用至年底。 618 拉动下家电 5 月线上、线下零售继续提速。20 ...

Core Insights - The current consumer industry shows a trend of differentiation, with mass consumption and government-business consumption performing distinctly. Companies that embrace new consumer groups, new business models, and new channels are emerging, while traditional food and beverage companies are solidifying their foundations and actively seeking change [3][4] - The core theme remains chasing structural prosperity, with a continued positive outlook on high-growth sectors such as snacks and soft drinks, while monitoring the recovery pace of the liquor and restaurant chains [3][4] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift towards health-conscious and emotional consumption, with products like large-pack beverages, sugar-free tea, and health-oriented snacks gaining traction. The emergence of diverse channels aligns with changing consumer habits, leading to significant growth in categories like konjac and quail eggs [3][4] - New channels such as online media e-commerce, offline delivery, and membership supermarkets are rising, providing efficient supply chain solutions and rapid growth opportunities for innovative companies [3][4] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with external risks expected to ease. Policies aimed at steady growth are anticipated to continue, improving consumer sentiment and spending power. The sector is currently undervalued, with a good safety margin [4][60] - Focus on high-end liquor with stable prices and strong brand equity, as well as potential cyclical recovery stocks like Gujing Gongjiu and Luzhou Laojiao [4][60] Restaurant Chain Sector - The restaurant chain sector is showing signs of recovery, albeit with some challenges. The impact of consumption policies is gradually becoming evident, with expectations for improvement in consumer confidence and spending in the second half of the year [4][66] - The B-end is under pressure, but some demand is being compensated by the C-end. Companies in the frozen food and seasoning sectors are experiencing revenue growth challenges, while third-party sales are becoming a key support [4][66] Snack and Beverage Trends - The snack market is witnessing a robust growth trajectory, with the konjac category showing exceptional performance, with revenues increasing from 257 million yuan in 2022 to 838 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an annual growth rate exceeding 80% [17][21] - The soft drink market is also growing steadily, with the retail scale expected to reach 585.8 billion yuan by 2024, driven by innovations in sports drinks and sugar-free beverages [29][32] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a coexistence of consumption upgrading and downgrading, with new channels capturing diverse consumer needs. Companies like Wancheng and Mingming are demonstrating strong growth potential through innovative channel strategies [11][24] - The overall industry is in a bottoming phase, with potential benefits from low valuations and supportive policies. The focus should be on high-end liquor and cyclical recovery stocks [60][55]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "顺丰控股" (SF Express) in the express delivery sector and "海晨股份" (Haichen Co.) in the logistics sector, as well as "中国国航" (Air China) and "南方航空" (Southern Airlines) in the aviation sector [3][4][5]. Core Views - The express delivery sector shows strong growth, with SF Express's business volume growth significantly outpacing the industry, and the overall express delivery volume in May reaching 173.2 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [3]. - The logistics sector is under pressure, particularly in hazardous materials logistics, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Haichen Co. benefiting from improved demand in consumer electronics [4]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a robust recovery, with domestic passenger volume in May reaching 56.45 million, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and international passenger volume increasing by 23% [5][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Sector Market Review - The transportation index decreased by 0.1% during the week of June 14-20, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.5%, outperforming the market by 0.4% [2][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is facing mixed conditions, with container shipping rates under pressure, while oil shipping rates are rising due to geopolitical tensions [6][22]. - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) was 1342.46 points, up 8.0% week-on-week but down 30.2% year-on-year [6][22]. 2.2 Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is showing strong upward momentum, with domestic and international passenger volumes recovering significantly compared to 2019 levels [5][58]. - The average daily flights reached 14,867, with international flights increasing by 16.17% year-on-year [5]. 2.3 Rail and Road - The rail and road sectors are stable, with rail passenger volume in April reaching 382 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.97% [84]. - The national highway freight traffic increased by 2.46% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in road logistics [7][88]. 2.4 Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery sector saw a total of 39.3 billion pieces collected in the week of June 9-15, with a year-on-year increase of 17.5% [3]. - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased by 7.6% year-on-year, indicating pricing pressures in the sector [3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the offshore wind sector, particularly highlighting the potential for significant growth in European offshore wind projects and the expected increase in orders for related companies [7][6]. Core Insights - The offshore wind sector is experiencing a positive outlook with successful project milestones, such as the Jiangsu Guoxin Dafeng offshore wind project achieving its first power delivery and aiming for grid connection [7]. - The U.S. "Great American Outdoors Act" has introduced more lenient supply chain requirements, which is expected to benefit energy storage projects significantly [8]. - The lithium battery sector is seeing a resurgence in traditional orders and advancements in solid-state battery technology, with major manufacturers receiving large-scale orders [14][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Offshore Wind - Jiangsu Guoxin Dafeng offshore wind project successfully completed its first power delivery, with expectations for initial grid connection within the month [7]. - The 2025 Offshore Wind Conference in Liaoning set a target of 13.1GW for offshore wind development, indicating strong future demand [7]. - European offshore wind demand is projected to double this year, with significant order growth anticipated [7]. Solar & Energy Storage - The U.S. Senate's version of the "Great American Outdoors Act" has relaxed certain supply chain restrictions, which is favorable for energy storage projects [8]. - After a peak in domestic installations, solar exports have rebounded, with May exports showing a month-on-month increase [8]. - The report highlights the potential for overseas markets to support solar demand in the second half of 2025 [8]. Lithium Batteries - The solid-state battery sector is moving towards industrialization, with major manufacturers receiving MWh scale orders [14]. - The report emphasizes the need for equipment upgrades in solid-state battery production, which is expected to yield higher value compared to traditional equipment [14]. - LG Energy Solution has secured an 8GWh order for cylindrical batteries from Chery, marking a significant contract in the lithium battery market [11]. New Energy Vehicles - The Chinese government has confirmed the continuation of the vehicle trade-in subsidy program, which is expected to stabilize market demand [15]. - The report notes a strong recovery in the overall vehicle market, particularly in the second half of the year, driven by new vehicle launches and subsidy support [15]. - The report anticipates a robust demand for new energy vehicles, with significant sales growth expected in the coming months [15]. Power Grid - The export of major electrical equipment has shown strong growth, with May exports reaching $6.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18% [18]. - The report highlights the ongoing demand for power grid equipment, particularly in overseas markets, which is expected to remain high [18]. - The report suggests that leading companies in the power grid sector are well-positioned to capture greater market share due to their comprehensive capabilities [20].

行业点评 本周 A 股地产、港股地产、港股物业均下跌。本周（6.14-6.20）申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为-1.7%，在各板块 中位列第 14；恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为-1.6%，在各板块中位列第 6。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨跌幅为- 1.9%，恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为-1.5%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为-0.5%；物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪深 300 的 相对收益分别为-0.5%和-1.5%。 土地市场溢价率有所回升。本周（6.14-6.20）2025 年第 25 周，全国 300 城宅地成交建面 917 万㎡，单周环比 24%，单周同比-16%，平均溢价率 8%。2025 年初至今，全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 16293 万㎡，累计同比-3.6%； 年初至今，保利发展、绿城中国、中海地产、建发房产、滨江集团的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周(6.14-6.20)新房成交量环比+9.3%，连续两周上升，同比-7.3%；5 月新房售价环比-0.2%，同比-4.1%，同比 降幅持续收窄；结合量价，景气度下行趋缓。本周 47 个城市商品房成交合计 370 万平米。其中：一线城市周环比+3%， ...

本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+0.13%到 9660.50 美元/吨，沪铜-0.03%到 7.80 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周进口铜精矿加工费 周度指数跌至-44.78 美元/吨。截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 0.18 万吨至 14.59 万吨，较上周四上升 0.11 万吨，较去年同期的 39.94 万吨低 25.25 万吨。冶炼端，2025 年 5 月中国进口阳极铜 6.94 万吨，环比减少 6.48%， 同比减少 30.56%。消费端，据 SMM，本周国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率环比上升至 75.82%，环比上升 2.50 个百分 点，较预期值低 0.77 个百分点，同比上升 5.67 个百分点；本周漆包线行业机台开机率环比下降 0.2 个百分点至 81.9%，周订单量环比微涨 0.51%；本周国内黄铜棒生产企业开工率持续走低，较上周回落 0.83 个百分点至 51.18%。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+2.34%到 2561.50 美元/吨，沪铝+0.12%到 2.05 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四国内主流消费地 电解铝锭库存 44.9 万吨，较本周一下降 0.9 万吨， ...

一、存量市场概览 上周（2025.6.9-2025.6.13，下同）地方政府债市场持续扩容，截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日，地方债存量规模达到 51.1 万 亿元。从地方债类型分布来看，存续的地方债中新增专项债规模占比超过 43%，再融资专项债占比为 21%。进一步细 分专项债的募集资金投向，明确资金用途的存量债中，棚户区改造、园区新区建设、乡村振兴是规模较大的投向领域， 存量余额分别为 1.96 万亿、1.57 万亿和 1.12 万亿元。其次收费公路存量余额超过 8800 亿元，水利和生态项目存量 余额也在 2000 亿以上。截至 2025 年 6 月 13 日，广东、江苏、山东地方债存量规模仍位居三甲，存量规模分别为 3.39 万亿元、3.28 万亿元和 3.1 万亿元，其余 GDP 大省如四川、浙江、湖南、河南、河北、湖北存量规模也位于 2 万亿以 上。 二、一级供给节奏 上周地方政府债共发行 1077.85 亿元，其中，新增专项债 70.72 亿元，再融资专项债 400.07 亿元。分募集资金用途 来看，"普通/项目收益"和"偿还地方债券"是专项债资金的主要投放领域。截至 2025 年 6 月 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive "pause" since the beginning of the current rate cut cycle in September 2024 [2] - Economic forecasts indicate a heightened concern over "stagflation," with the Fed lowering growth projections while raising inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [2][3] - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts in 2025, but the number of committee members who believe no cuts are needed has increased from four to seven since March, indicating a hawkish stance [2][3] Economic Forecasts - The Fed has revised down the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, while raising core PCE inflation forecasts to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2] - Unemployment rate forecasts have been adjusted upward to 4.5% for 2025 and 2026, and 4.4% for 2027 [2] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in the summer, with Powell indicating that high tariffs are likely to push inflation up and exert pressure on economic activity [3] - The transmission of tariffs to final consumers is anticipated to take time, with many companies expected to pass on the costs to consumers [3] Monetary Policy Guidance - Powell stated that rate cuts could come quickly or may take time, depending on the labor market and economic pressures [3] - The current Fed stance is described as "passive and reactive," with potential for rate hikes if stagflation risks intensify [3] Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to perform well amid a potential "hard landing" in the U.S. economy, driven by factors such as dollar depreciation and renewed Fed rate cuts [4] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is seen as having upside potential during the Fed's rate cut cycle, with expectations of improved margins and revenue [4] - U.S. equities face significant adjustment risks due to stagflation concerns, with both earnings and valuation pressures anticipated [4] - U.S. Treasuries may present a trend-following opportunity only after inflation declines, with potential for rapid interest rate increases beforehand [4]