情绪偏冷，但反弹犹豫 债市情绪依然谨慎，连续第三周运行在情绪指数"偏冷"区间。与以往不同的是，过去每当情绪进入偏冷区域，市场 往往会自发出现一定的修复，而当前市场的反弹程度却比较弱。究其原因或在于制度不确定性仍压制市场，尤其是近 期备受关注的公募基金销售费用新规。由于政策尚处于征求意见阶段，市场对其最终影响的定价完成度不确定，从而 加重了观望情绪。鉴于新规的不确定性仍在发酵，本文将以史为鉴：一方面梳理自 2022 年以来数次典型赎回冲击的 关键特征；另一方面结合当前市场的利率、利差及基金净值等表现，尝试观察这一轮潜在赎回冲击所处的"进度"。 赎回冲击常见演绎路径 2022 年以来的 10 次赎回冲击。其中 2022 年出现 2 次，集中在四季度，受政策转向与理财集中赎回叠加影响，烈度最 强；2023 年仅在 8-9 月出现 1 次，主要源于资金收紧及地产政策调整；2024 年出现 4 次，3 次在 7-8 月，与央行调控 长端利率相关，但每次持续时间较短；9-10 月则与 924 一揽子政策有关。进入 2025 年，小规模的赎回冲击截至 9 月 已出现 3 次，均由权益市场强势叠加风险偏好回暖触发。 赎回冲击 ...

实物资产：脆弱的供给与恢复的需求 本周（2025 年 9 月 1 日至 2025 年 9 月 5 日，下同）大宗商品铜的供给端发生重大扰动，全球第二大铜矿印尼 Grasberg 铜矿遭遇不可抗力停产（2024 年铜矿产量越占全球的 3.5%），引发了铜价快速上涨。在关税政策驱动下美国锁定了大 量铜库存的背景下，总量上看似短期过剩的供需格局下结构上其实已经非常紧张，本次 Grasberg 铜矿停产可能导致 2025 年 Q4 及 2026 年供给侧进一步的收缩，这为将来制造业需求修复时的价格弹性埋下伏笔。从另一视角来看，当前 全球金属铜市场的震动同样也是贸易格局重塑与供给约束下全球实物资产供应链脆弱性的缩影，也是以大宗商品为代 表的实物资产中长期价值重估的来源。而短期需求侧，美国 2025 年 9 月标普全球 PMI、8 月地产销售、耐用品订单表 现均超预期，PCE 符合预期，这意味着对于资源品而言影响供需的数据都相对健康，约束"降息"的数据又都在放松。 当然也需要关注，受美国"抢出口"热度退坡影响，欧洲主要国家 9 月制造业 PMI 则出现边际下滑，未来财政政策的 具体落地路径是重要观测。值得一提的是，部分前 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - As of September 26, the weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds were 1.89 years and 2.16 years respectively. Among commercial bank bonds, the weighted average trading durations of secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, and general commercial financial bonds were 4.39 years, 3.72 years, and 2.19 years respectively. The duration of bank perpetual bonds was at a relatively low historical level. Among other financial bonds, the durations of securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.35 years, 1.85 years, 3.10 years, and 1.30 years respectively. The durations of securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds shortened, and the securities company bonds were at a relatively low historical quantile [1][8]. - The coupon duration congestion index dropped significantly. After reaching its peak in March 2024, the index declined and is currently at the 25.9% level since March 2021 [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Full - variety Duration Overview - The weighted average trading durations of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, secondary capital bonds, bank perpetual bonds, general commercial financial bonds, securities company bonds, securities subordinated bonds, insurance company bonds, and leasing company bonds were 1.89 years, 2.16 years, 4.39 years, 3.72 years, 2.19 years, 1.35 years, 1.85 years, 3.10 years, and 1.30 years respectively. Their corresponding historical quantiles since March 2021 were 78.7%, 75.3%, 97.0%, 65.5%, 71.9%, 8.0%, 23.4%, 60.0%, and 76.5% [10]. 2. Variety Microscope Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of urban investment bonds hovered around 1.89 years. The duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds extended to 6.37 years, while that of Beijing district - level urban investment bonds shortened to around 1.63 years. The historical quantiles of the durations of urban investment bonds in regions such as Henan prefecture - level cities and Jiangxi prefecture - level cities exceeded 90%, and the duration of Hebei provincial urban investment bonds approached the highest level since 2021 [2][15]. Industrial Bonds - The weighted average trading duration of industrial bonds slightly shortened compared to the previous week, generally staying around 2.16 years. The trading duration of the commercial retail industry extended to 2.09 years, while that of the basic chemical industry shortened to 1.19 years. The trading durations of industries such as food and beverage, coal, real estate, and building decoration were at relatively low historical quantiles, while the building materials industry was at a relatively high historical quantile [2][20]. Commercial Bank Bonds - The duration of general commercial financial bonds extended to 2.19 years, at the 71.9% historical quantile, lower than the same period last year. The duration of secondary capital bonds extended to 4.39 years, at the 97% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year. The duration of bank perpetual bonds shortened to 3.72 years, at the 65.5% historical quantile, higher than the same period last year [2][23]. Other Financial Bonds - In terms of the weighted average trading duration, insurance company bonds > securities subordinated bonds > securities company bonds > leasing company bonds, at the 60%, 23.4%, 8%, and 76.5% historical quantiles respectively. The durations of securities company bonds and securities subordinated bonds slightly shortened compared to the previous week [2][26].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a left-side configuration opportunity in the white liquor segment [3][12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the core products in the liquor industry, such as Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye, have seen a rebound in wholesale prices, attributed to effective channel management by manufacturers [2][12]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume in the white liquor sector will decline by approximately 20% year-on-year, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the increasing diversification of purchasing channels for liquor, with a notable shift towards online and new media platforms, which is reshaping consumer behavior [2][12][14]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The report notes a recovery in the wholesale prices of key products, driven by improved channel management and a positive reception during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][12]. - It suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a phase where inventory levels can be significantly reduced, leading to a temporary release of price pressure [12][14]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions and exploring potential catalysts in the broader liquor market [3][12][14]. Beer - The beer sector is experiencing steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-draft channels and soft drinks [14]. - The report encourages continued attention to the beer sector due to its solid performance and dividend levels [3][14]. Yellow Wine - The yellow wine industry is seeing price increases among leading brands, which may lead to a more stable competitive landscape [14]. - The report highlights the importance of marketing and product innovation in the yellow wine sector as it approaches peak season [14]. Snacks - The snack industry is maintaining high growth, with new retail channels expanding rapidly and product diversity increasing [4][15]. - The report suggests that the upcoming holiday season will boost demand for snack products, particularly nut gift boxes [4][15]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is nearing the end of its peak season, with segments like energy drinks and sugar-free teas showing strong growth [4][16]. - The report indicates that traditional categories are facing challenges, but health-oriented products are performing well [4][16]. Condiments - The condiment sector is stabilizing, with expectations of demand recovery in the restaurant chain segment [5][17]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and improving profit margins [5][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI-PCB and computing hardware, as well as the Apple supply chain and self-controlled beneficiary industrial chains [4][27]. Core Viewpoints - The demand for AI inference is expected to surge, driving strong demand for AI computing hardware. Domestic computing demand and supply are rapidly rising, with significant growth potential for core beneficiary industrial chains [1][27]. - The report highlights the release of Alibaba's new AI server, which supports the highest density of AI chips in the industry, and the successful IPO of Moore Threads, a domestic GPU company [1][27]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards domestic production due to geopolitical factors, with a focus on self-sufficiency and local supply chains [24][29]. Summary by Sections 1. AI Computing Hardware - Alibaba showcased its new AI server capable of housing 128 AI chips, significantly enhancing performance and bandwidth capabilities [1]. - Moore Threads plans to raise 8 billion yuan for the development of next-generation AI chips, indicating strong growth in domestic AI hardware [1]. 2. PCB Industry - The PCB industry is maintaining a high level of prosperity, driven by demand from automotive and industrial control sectors, as well as the AI boom [7]. - Strong demand for AI PCBs is leading to increased orders and production capacity among several companies [4][27]. 3. Consumer Electronics - The upcoming launches of Apple's iPhone 17 series and Meta's AR glasses are expected to drive demand in the consumer electronics sector [5][6]. - The report suggests focusing on opportunities in foldable screens and high-value segments within the Apple supply chain [5]. 4. Semiconductor and Components - The report anticipates a significant increase in DRAM prices due to supply constraints and rising demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [21][23]. - The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of domestic production and self-sufficiency [24][26]. 5. Key Companies - The report identifies several key companies poised to benefit from the trends in AI computing and semiconductor industries, including Alibaba, Moore Threads, and various PCB manufacturers [27][28].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by domestic AI development, such as servers and IDC, as well as sectors benefiting from overseas AI growth, including servers and optical modules [5] Core Insights - Nvidia plans to invest $100 billion in OpenAI to build AI data centers with a capacity of at least 10GW, which will significantly enhance OpenAI's computational capabilities [1][54] - Google’s Gemini 2.5 Flash Image model has gained significant traction, completing over 200 million image edits in its first week and attracting 10 million new users, indicating a surge in computational demand [1][55] - Microsoft has introduced a microfluidic cooling technology that reduces GPU chip temperatures by 65%, enhancing efficiency and supporting higher power density designs [1][56] - Alibaba Cloud announced a 380 billion yuan AI infrastructure plan, significantly increasing its daily call volume and launching new AI models and servers [1][9] - Domestic AI models are rapidly iterating, with increasing computational demands and a shift towards domestic supply chains [1] Summary by Sections Server Sector - The server index increased by 0.63% this week and 2.96% this month, driven by partnerships like SAP and OpenAI's "OpenAI for Germany" initiative [2][7] - Google’s Gemini model has significantly boosted token usage and computational demand, contributing to Alphabet's market value surpassing $3 trillion [7] Optical Modules - The optical module index decreased by 4.66% this week but increased by 2.73% this month, with Nvidia's investment in AI data centers positively impacting optical module manufacturers [2][8] IDC - The IDC index rose by 2.15% this week and 1.49% this month, with Alibaba Cloud's daily call volume increasing 15 times and a substantial investment in AI infrastructure [3][9] Liquid Cooling - Microsoft’s microfluidic cooling technology is expected to enhance AI chip performance and reduce energy costs, with a planned $30 billion investment in AI infrastructure [1][15]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on three main lines of investment opportunities in the securities sector, highlighting the potential for significant returns in the coming months [3][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transition of the capital market from "quantitative expansion" to "qualitative improvement" during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with expectations for increased support for technology innovation and a focus on investor returns [2][37]. - The insurance sector is experiencing high growth in life insurance premiums, with a notable increase in health insurance, while non-auto insurance faces challenges [4][36]. - The report identifies a significant improvement in the performance of brokerage firms, with a mismatch between high profitability and low valuations, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [3][4]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The report indicates that the average daily trading volume of A-shares is 23,132 billion, reflecting a decrease of 8.1% week-on-week, while the year-to-date average daily trading volume for equity funds has increased by 98.1% year-on-year [15]. - It highlights the strong performance of brokerage firms in the first half of the year, with a recommendation to focus on those with high investment ratios and significant merger and acquisition potential [3][4]. Insurance Sector - The report notes that life insurance premiums increased by 11.4% year-on-year to 35,797 billion in the first eight months of 2025, with life insurance and health insurance growing by 14.0% and 0.5%, respectively [4][36]. - It also mentions that property insurance premiums grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with auto insurance maintaining steady growth while non-auto insurance faced pressure [4][36]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the increasing interest of insurance companies in real estate investments, with a notable rise in investment scale compared to the previous year [36]. - It also highlights the significant increase in direct financing in the capital market, with a total of 57.5 trillion raised in the past five years, indicating a shift towards a more robust financing structure [37].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the export chain due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a recommendation to actively monitor this sector [1][12][13]. Core Insights - The expectation of further interest rate cuts in the U.S. is likely to boost overseas demand, benefiting the manufacturing sector, particularly leading apparel manufacturers who maintain pricing power due to limited capacity [1][12]. - FILA's strategic partnership with the China Open and its multi-brand strategy highlight its resilience against market risks, with continued investment in elite sports expected to enhance brand recognition and market share [2][18]. - Retail data indicates a recovery in clothing sales, with a 3.1% year-on-year increase in August, driven by seasonal promotions and improved consumer demand [3][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates a favorable investment environment for the apparel and cosmetics sectors, with specific recommendations for leading companies within these industries [4][33]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to positively impact the export chain, with a high probability of two additional cuts this year [1][12]. - FILA's renewal of its sponsorship with the China Open and its appointment of a top tennis player as a brand ambassador are expected to strengthen its market position [2][17]. - August retail data shows a 3.1% increase in clothing sales, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [3][20]. Industry Data Tracking - August saw a 5.1% year-on-year increase in cosmetics retail sales, reflecting a positive trend in consumer spending [27][30]. - The report notes stable raw material prices, with cotton prices showing slight declines, which may impact production costs [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the apparel sector, such as Shenzhou International and Anta, which are expected to benefit from market recovery and strategic initiatives [4][33]. - In the beauty sector, brands with strong recognition and quality, such as Mao Ge Ping, are highlighted for their potential growth [4][34]. Market Review - The report reviews market performance, noting a decline in the textile manufacturing sector, while highlighting individual stock performances within the apparel and beauty industries [5][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [13][16]. Core Insights - Copper prices have surged due to unexpected production cuts, leading to significant supply shortages and rapid price increases [13]. - Aluminum is showing signs of recovery with inventory levels decreasing and downstream processing rates improving, suggesting a potential for sustained high profitability [15]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to rise further due to market anticipation of continuous interest rate cuts [16]. Summary by Sections Copper - This week, LME copper price increased by 2.09% to $10,205.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.20% to 82,500 yuan per ton [14]. - Supply side: The import copper concentrate processing fee index rose to -$40.36 per ton; national copper inventory decreased by 4,400 tons to 140,100 tons [14]. - Consumption side: Brass rod enterprises' operating rate was 48.49%, showing a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points [14]. Aluminum - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 1.01% to $2,649.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.24% to 20,700 yuan per ton [15]. - Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped by 21,000 tons to 617,000 tons [15]. - Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%, driven by pre-holiday stocking [15]. Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold price rose by 0.23% to $3,789.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing by 5.15 tons to 1,005.72 tons [16]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to a volatile trading environment [16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased, while the export volume of magnetic materials saw significant growth [32]. - Domestic rare earth separation enterprises are preparing for production halts, indicating potential supply constraints [32]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price is at 174,900 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.26% [33]. - The demand for antimony is expected to recover as the photovoltaic glass market stabilizes [33]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate price is 4,450 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.45% [34]. - The demand for molybdenum is expected to rise as major steel mills resume procurement [34]. Tin - Tin ingot price increased by 1.74% to 273,700 yuan per ton, with inventory decreasing by 6.14% [35]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, supported by strong inventory levels and demand from the semiconductor sector [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook across various sectors, particularly in hydrogen energy, wind power, and lithium batteries, indicating strong growth potential and investment opportunities [1][2][3][4][5][6][9][23]. Core Insights - The energy revolution is shifting focus towards decarbonization in non-electric sectors, with green hydrogen and methanol as key pathways, presenting multiple investment opportunities in production and equipment [1][5][6][7]. - The wind power sector is experiencing significant developments, with major projects in Italy and Thailand, indicating robust overseas expansion for leading companies [9][10][11][12]. - The lithium battery market is witnessing strong demand driven by the energy storage sector and the upcoming peak consumption season for electric vehicles, leading to price increases [23][24]. Summary by Sections Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The market is recognizing the potential of green hydrogen and methanol, with significant growth expected in various applications such as transportation and chemicals [1][5][6][7]. - The demand for green methanol in shipping is projected to rise, with regulatory frameworks supporting its adoption [7]. Wind Power - Major investments in floating wind projects in Italy are set to commence, with expectations for significant contributions to the European offshore wind market [9][10]. - Companies like Mingyang and Goldwind are expanding their overseas operations, enhancing their competitive edge [11][12]. Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector is entering a strong demand phase, with significant procurement activity from end-users in both energy storage and electric vehicles [23][24]. - The market for lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F) is experiencing price increases due to tight supply conditions [23][24]. Electric Grid and Industrial Control - The export of major electrical equipment is on the rise, with significant growth in transformers and high-voltage switches, indicating a long-term positive outlook for overseas demand [26][27]. - Companies in the industrial control sector are launching new products aimed at enhancing efficiency and performance in robotics [28][29]. New Energy Vehicles - The domestic market for new energy vehicles is showing strong sales growth, with significant increases in both retail and wholesale volumes [30].