1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market will continue to oscillate and recover. It is believed that the interest rate decline will be smoother in the second half of the fourth quarter. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate is expected to recover to the pre - adjustment level of 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year [5][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Market Performance and Interest Rate Trend - This week, funds remained loose, and the bond market declined slightly. The R007 was stable below 1.5%, and R001 was below 1.4%. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose by 2.4bps and 1.2bps to 1.85% and 2.21% respectively, and the yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds rose by 2.9bps and 0.8bps [1][8]. - Fundamentally and in terms of funds, the trend supports the decline of interest rates. The slight adjustment of interest rates last week was driven by the increase in risk appetite such as the rise of the stock market. The GDP real and nominal growth rates in the third quarter slowed down, and the real growth rate may further decline in the fourth quarter [1][8]. 3.2 Bond Market Fund Supply and Demand - The bond market shows a situation where the source of funds is greater than the supply of assets, and the gap has recently widened. Except for funds, the liability - side growth rates of financial institutions such as banks, insurance, and wealth management have increased. The total growth rate of relevant items increased from 10.5% in May to 11.5% in September [2][9]. - Due to the insufficient supply of other fixed - income assets such as loans and non - standard assets, financial institutions need to allocate more bonds. The non - government bond social financing growth rate in September was 5.9%, significantly lower than the 11.5% growth rate of the liabilities of financial institutions. The gap may continue to widen in the future [3][12]. 3.3 Asset - Liability Mismatch in Duration - Although the bond market is in a state of increasing asset shortage in terms of total volume, the pressure of duration mismatch is increasing. The liability side of financial institutions shows a short - term characteristic, while the duration of the asset side is lengthening, especially in banks [3][15]. - The proportion of current deposits in total deposits of banks increased from 19.5% in May to 20.1% in September, while the average issuance period of local bonds in the first nine months was 15.6 years, significantly higher than the 13.1 - year level of the same period last year [3][15]. 3.4 Response to Duration Pressure - The increase in duration pressure should be viewed dynamically. The rise in long - term bond yields has partially reflected this situation. The rise in long - term interest rates may also lead to dynamic changes in supply and demand and adjustments in institutional allocation behavior [4][17]. 3.5 Outlook for the Bond Market - The bond market will continue to oscillate and recover. In the second half of the fourth quarter, as the bond - selling pressure of banks fades and the risk of public offering fee reform is settled, the decline of interest rates will be smoother [5][19]. - It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped strategy, which can control risks through duration and obtain double benefits from the overall decline of interest rates and the narrowing of spreads [5][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable profit release, with significant contributions from its shipbuilding and power generation businesses. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 87.423 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.52%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.104 billion yuan, up 10.03% year-on-year [1][2] - The shipbuilding business continues to contribute positively, with new deliveries and contracts signed, including the construction of bulk carriers for Greek shipping companies [1] - The power generation business shows substantial growth potential, with a notable increase in production capacity, particularly for high-power units, achieving a year-on-year increase in output value of 46% [1] Financial Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 6.76%, a slight increase of 0.03 percentage points year-on-year. The overall expense ratio decreased by 0.20 percentage points to 2.73% [2] - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is expected to be 117.9 billion yuan, 121.4 billion yuan, and 125 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.274 billion yuan, 1.379 billion yuan, and 1.487 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.97 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.14 yuan per share [2][3] - The company is characterized as a "supply chain + industrial chain" dual-driven foreign trade enterprise, benefiting from strong state-owned enterprise resources and a mature employee incentive mechanism [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a 470% year-on-year growth in non-recurring net profit, attributed to supply chain reforms that enhanced profit elasticity [1][4]. - Despite a decline in revenue by 3.87% year-on-year in Q3 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 22.77 million yuan, marking a 24.34% increase compared to the previous year [1][4]. - The company is expected to enter a profit elasticity release period due to stable same-store performance and reduced losses in out-of-province operations, alongside supply chain reforms that improve gross margins [10]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.581 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.87% year-on-year, with a total revenue of 13.588 billion yuan for the first three quarters, also down by 3.81% [2]. - The gross margin for the main business in Q3 2025 was 20.59%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 23.93%, up by 0.67 percentage points [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 1.584 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.08% [1]. Store Expansion and Operations - In Q3 2025, the company opened 7 new direct-operated stores and 13 franchise stores, while closing 14 direct-operated stores, resulting in a total of 1,090 stores at the end of the period [2]. - The company’s store types include 242 comprehensive supermarkets, 400 community fresh food supermarkets, and 202 rural supermarkets [2]. Cost Management - The expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 22.01%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year, with a slight increase in sales and management expense ratios [4]. - The total expenses decreased, contributing to improved profit quality [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 207 million yuan, 250 million yuan, and 288 million yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 57.2%, 20.6%, and 15.0% [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Increase" for the C-REITs sector [5] Core Insights - The C-REITs market is expected to benefit from a low interest rate environment in 2025, with three main investment strategies suggested: focusing on policy-driven projects, recognizing the value of weak-cycle assets, and monitoring the expansion of REITs alongside new issuances [4][5] - The C-REITs secondary market has shown volatility, with municipal water conservancy and data center sectors performing well, while affordable housing and industrial park sectors experienced slight pullbacks [12] Summary by Sections REITs Index Performance - The CSI REITs total return index increased by 0.16% this week, closing at 1045.1 points, with a year-to-date increase of 7.98% [10][11] - The index performance of major benchmarks this week includes the CSI 300 up by 3.24% and the Hang Seng index up by 3.62% [10][11] REITs Secondary Market Performance - The total market capitalization of listed REITs is approximately 217.68 billion yuan, with an average market cap of about 2.9 billion yuan per REIT [12] - Among the listed REITs, 46 increased in value while 28 decreased, with an average weekly increase of 0.28% [12] REITs Valuation Performance - The internal rate of return (IRR) for listed REITs shows significant differentiation, with the top three being Huaxia China Communications REIT at 9.9%, Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT at 9.4%, and Zhongjin Hubei Keti Guanggu REIT at 8.1% [3] - The price-to-net asset value (P/NAV) ratio for various REITs ranges from 0.7 to 1.8, indicating varying levels of valuation [3] Trading Activity - The data center sector exhibited the highest trading activity this week, with an average daily trading volume of 1.68 million shares and a turnover rate of 0.6% [2] - The top three REITs by trading volume were Huatai Zijin Bay Logistics REIT, Huatai Jiangsu Traffic Control REIT, and China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak fundamentals, with expectations for more supportive real estate policies [1] - The recent Central Committee meeting emphasized the importance of building a strong domestic market and enhancing effective investment, which could positively impact the construction materials sector [2] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in municipal engineering projects and the positive changes in supply-side dynamics for cement and glass industries [2] Summary by Sections Market Overview - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the construction materials sector (SW) rose by 0.40%, with cement and glass manufacturing declining by 0.72% and 0.89%, respectively, while fiberglass manufacturing increased by 3.37% [1][12] - The net inflow of funds into the construction materials sector was +415 million yuan during this period [1] Cement Industry Tracking - As of October 24, 2025, the national cement price index was 343.65 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.13% [17] - The total cement output for the week was 2.616 million tons, up 3.46% from the previous week [17] - The capacity utilization rate for cement clinker kilns was 63.75%, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.39 percentage points [17] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass as of October 23, 2025, was 1243.68 yuan/ton, down 4.40% from the previous week [5] - The inventory of raw glass in 13 provinces increased by 2.9 million heavy boxes week-on-week, indicating a growing supply [5] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali fiberglass remained stable, with demand showing slight improvement [6] - The average price of electronic fiberglass was stable, with high-end products experiencing tight supply [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market price remained stable, with a production volume of 1857 tons and an operating rate of 61.69% [7] - The industry continues to face challenges with a negative gross margin, indicating ongoing losses for many companies [7] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Beixin Building Materials (Buy) [8] - Weixing New Materials (Overweight) [8] - Sankeshu (Buy) [8] - China Jushi (Buy) [8] - Yinlong Co. (Buy) [8] - Puren Co. (Buy) [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the optical communication sector, including Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, and Tianfu Communication [11]. Core Insights - The optical communication industry is entering a new phase driven by substantial demand for AI computing power, leading to an earlier-than-expected market recovery [1][24]. - The industry is transitioning into an era of "delivery assurance," where delivery capability becomes the core competitive advantage, replacing the previous focus on order acquisition [3][28]. - The report highlights the structural shortage of upstream core chips and key materials, which is impacting the delivery of optical modules [27][29]. Summary by Sections Market Recovery - The optical communication market is showing signs of early recovery due to continuous additional orders from overseas manufacturers [2][25]. - The demand for computing power is expected to grow, with significant order clarity for 2026 and 2027 [27]. Industry Trends - The industry is shifting from a "competing for orders" model to a "delivery assurance" model by 2026, emphasizing the importance of delivery capabilities [3][28]. - The report notes that leading companies will leverage their supply chain management and scale advantages to thrive in this new environment [7][28]. Challenges - The production of optical modules faces challenges due to the complexity of the manufacturing process and the long lead times from order to delivery [29]. - There is a structural shortage of optical chips and devices, which is exacerbating supply chain issues [27][29]. Key Companies to Watch - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the optical module sector such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng, as well as other key players in the optical device market [8][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electricity sector [3]. Core Views - The electricity trading mechanism in Guangdong for 2026 is expected to boost electricity price expectations, with a focus on controllable nuclear fusion [1][9]. - Thermal power performance in Q3 is anticipated to improve due to a rebound in coal prices, enhancing the expectation of stable electricity prices [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage policies and the value of flexible power sources, suggesting a focus on the thermal power sector and undervalued green electricity stocks [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,950.31 points, up 2.88%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,660.68 points, up 3.24%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3,146.78 points, up 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.11 percentage points [1][54]. Key Insights - The Guangdong 2026 electricity trading mechanism has been released, maintaining the trading benchmark price and floating range, while canceling the variable cost compensation mechanism for nuclear power. The market will expand to include all renewable energy sources [9]. - The benchmark price for coal-fired electricity is set at 0.453 CNY/kWh, with a floating range of 20%, leading to a projected annual trading price range of 0.372 to 0.554 CNY/kWh for 2026 [9]. - The report highlights the expected increase in capacity price to 165 CNY/kW/year, which may offset lower trading prices [9]. Thermal Power - Coal prices have rebounded to 770 CNY/ton, which is expected to support the thermal power sector [10]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and others in the thermal power sector due to their potential for performance improvement [2][6]. Hydropower - The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir have significantly increased, with inflow rising by 91.86% and outflow by 70.24% compared to the previous year [32]. Green Energy - The report notes that silicon material prices remain stable, with mainstream silicon wafer prices also unchanged, indicating potential for improved returns on photovoltaic projects in the long term [42]. Carbon Market - The national carbon market saw a price increase of 4.77% this week, with a closing price of 54.70 CNY/ton, reflecting a growing interest in carbon trading [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has increased its investment in content and technology, which has impacted short-term performance but is expected to drive long-term growth due to its unique state-owned platform advantages and strong content output capabilities [4]. - The company achieved a revenue of 9.063 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 11.82% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.016 billion yuan, down 29.67% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company launched 28 new seasonal variety shows, maintaining the highest market share in the industry, with several shows ranking in the top 10 for effective views [2]. - The membership business showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of approximately 11.08% in average monthly active users [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.099 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.58% year-on-year, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 33.47% [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 1.182 billion yuan, 1.611 billion yuan, and 1.735 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -13.4%, +36.3%, and +7.7% respectively [4]. Content and IP Development - The company has a rich content reserve, including nearly 100 film and television projects and several high-performing IP adaptations [2]. - The launch of the "Thousand IP Joint Creation Ecological Plan" aims to collaborate with leading copyright platforms to develop short dramas [2]. Business Segments - The advertising business showed signs of recovery, with Q3 advertising revenue growth returning to positive territory [3]. - The company is expanding its e-commerce segment, leveraging its content IP and artist resources [3].

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the sector [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the precious metals market is expected to maintain a bullish trend in the medium to long term due to inflationary pressures and global liquidity easing, despite recent price corrections [1][34] - For industrial metals, copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and liquidity easing, while aluminum prices are expected to show strong fluctuations due to overseas production cuts and geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are projected to see strong price performance driven by positive demand expectations, while cobalt prices are also on an upward trend despite cautious purchasing strategies from downstream buyers [3][25] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - U.S. September CPI recorded at 3%, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][34] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. has declined to 53.6, reflecting weak economic fundamentals [1][34] - The report suggests that the recent pullback in gold prices is considered sufficient, and long-term bullish trends remain intact [1][34] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by tight supply due to disruptions in mining and easing liquidity conditions [2] - Global copper inventory increased by 19,400 tons, with Chinese inventory rising by 17,100 tons [2] - The report highlights that the aluminum industry in China is maintaining production levels, while overseas production cuts are expected to support aluminum prices [2] - Nickel demand remains strong, particularly in the battery sector, with prices expected to rise [2] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are showing strong performance, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 5.4% to 80,000 yuan/ton [3][25] - Cobalt prices are also on the rise, supported by strong demand from the ternary material sector, although purchasing strategies are becoming more cautious [3][25] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao for industrial metals [2][8] - Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [3][8]

- The report mentions the construction of the **A-share prosperity index**, which is based on the year-on-year net profit of the Shanghai Composite Index as the Nowcasting target. The index is currently in an upward cycle, with a value of 20.44 as of October 24, 2025, showing an increase of 15.02 compared to the end of 2023[29][32][33] - The report discusses the **A-share sentiment index**, which is constructed using market volatility and trading volume changes. The index divides the market into four quadrants based on the direction of volatility and trading volume changes. Among these quadrants, only the "volatility up-trading volume down" quadrant shows significant negative returns, while the others show significant positive returns. The sentiment index includes bottom warning and top warning signals. Currently, the bottom signal indicates bearishness, the top signal also indicates bearishness, and the overall sentiment signal is bearish[33][36][38] - The report analyzes **style factors** using the BARRA factor model, which includes ten categories: size (SIZE), beta (BETA), momentum (MOM), residual volatility (RESVOL), non-linear size (NLSIZE), valuation (BTOP), liquidity (LIQUIDITY), earnings yield (EARNINGS_YIELD), growth (GROWTH), and leverage (LVRG). Recent market trends show that liquidity factors are positively correlated with beta, momentum, and residual volatility, while valuation factors are negatively correlated with beta, residual volatility, and liquidity. Among style factors, beta factors have shown high excess returns, while non-linear size factors have shown significant negative excess returns. High-leverage stocks have performed well recently, while residual volatility and non-linear size factors have underperformed[57][58][60] - The report evaluates the **performance of enhanced index portfolios**. The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 2.06%, underperforming the benchmark by 1.39%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 52.33% relative to the CSI 500 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.73%. The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio achieved a weekly return of 3.24%, underperforming the benchmark by 0.01%. Since 2020, the portfolio has generated an excess return of 38.28% relative to the CSI 300 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[46][52][53] - The report highlights the **performance of industry factors**. Industry factors such as oil and petrochemicals, communication, and electronics have achieved relatively high excess returns compared to the market capitalization-weighted portfolio. On the other hand, industry factors such as non-ferrous metals, food and beverages, and retail have experienced significant pullbacks[58][61][63]