O 风险提示。技术研发和量产进度不及预期,政策出台不及预期, 行业融资不及预期。 低空指数周涨幅 8.3%,98%产业链上市公司股价上涨 -- 低空产业跟踪 14 期 0 近一周 Wind 低空经济指数上涨 8.3%。约 98%产业链公司实现 股价上涨,涨幅最高的为晨曦航空(飞行器制造-机载设备系统)、 航天南湖（低空基础设施-飞行管理及监视防御）、奥普光电（飞 行器制造-结构件），分别实现 48%、34%、24%的周涨幅。 | 产业研究中心 | | | --- | --- | | ર્ | 徐淋(分析师) | | S | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880523090005 | | S | 周天乐(分析师) | | 8 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 | S0880520010003 | | S | 肖洁(分析师) | | --- | --- | | క | 021-38676666 | 登记编号 S0880513080002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 of 7 产业观察 2025.05.13 摘要: 产业观察 目录 | . 资本市场表现. | | --- ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.05.13 投资收益韧性突出，恢复平稳扩表 华泰证券(601688) ——华泰证券 2025Q1 季报点评 [Table_Industry] 综合金融/金融 | | ——华泰证券 2025Q1 季报点评 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 王思玥(研究助理) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 20.86 | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880123070151 | | | 本报告导读： 2025Q1 投资业务净收入驱动增长。公司完成金融资产梳理工作，资产负债表恢复平 稳增长 投资要点： [Table_Balance] 资产负债表摘要(LF) 股东权益（百万元） 195,266 每股净资产（元） 21.63 市净率（现价） 0.8 净负债率 -161.81% [Table_PicQuote] 52周股价走势图 -15% -1% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8][15]. Core Views - The company demonstrates significant growth potential, with its business in the robotic ecosystem and parking asset management achieving breakthroughs. In 2024, both segments drove high revenue growth and provided unexpected dividends to shareholders [4][8]. - The company is expected to continue focusing on "asset circulation + intelligent operation" in 2025, with anticipated earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 0.08, 0.10, and 0.12 for 2025 to 2027, respectively. A price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30X is applied for 2025, suggesting a target price of HKD 2.44 [8][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 1.215 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.5%. The revenue from asset operation is expected to be HKD 921 million, up 40%, while asset financing revenue is projected at HKD 294 million, a 30.7% increase. Gross profit is estimated at HKD 507 million, reflecting a 41% increase [7][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at HKD 410 million, a slight increase of 1.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in dividend income from Shougang Resources and changes in the fair value of investment properties [8][9]. - The company maintains a strong cash reserve, with cash and cash equivalents expected to reach HKD 4.625 billion by 2025, supporting its business expansion [9]. Business Growth - The company is building a robust robotic ecosystem, planning to invest in 40 to 50 top robotic companies over the next 2 to 3 years to enhance product deployment and service offerings [8][9]. - In parking asset management, the company is expanding its "parking + charging" asset scale, with new projects at major transportation hubs, which is expected to drive dual growth in parking and charging revenues [8][9]. Dividend Policy - The total dividend payout for 2024 is projected to be approximately HKD 1.096 billion, exceeding market expectations, reflecting the company's confidence in its long-term investment value [8][9].

Q1 来水不佳，湖北现货即将转正 湖北能源(000883) 2024 年报及 25Q1 季报点评 | [table_Authors] 吴杰(分析师) | 胡鸿程(研究助理) | [Table_Target] 目标价格： | 5.61 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | | | 登记编号 S0880525040109 | S0880125042225 | | | 本报告导读： 公司 24 年和 25Q1 业绩分别受到减值和来水不佳影响，湖北现货市场推进，看好公 司电源长期价值释放。 投资要点： 风险提示。来水不及预期、电价下行、新能源盈利性下滑。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 18,669 | 20,031 | 20,045 | 21,655 | 21,980 | | (+/-)% | -9.3% | 7.3% | 0.1% ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Macro Economy**: Focus on consumption and infrastructure performance - **Overseas Technology**: Google, Trump administration, Apple - **Medical Devices**: Domestic market recovery and international expansion Key Points and Arguments Macro Economy - Consumption and infrastructure show resilience, while real estate, exports, and production face pressure [1][2] - Strong performance in automotive consumption; infrastructure investment is accelerating [1][2] - Real estate market remains under pressure; port operations for imports and exports are slowing down [1][2] - Overall production indicators in sectors like power generation, steel, petrochemicals, and automotive are declining [2] Overseas Technology - Google released Gemini 2.5 Pro, enhancing front-end development and complex programming capabilities [4] - The model allows users to create interactive web applications with simple prompts, significantly lowering entry barriers for developers [4] - Trump administration plans to revoke Biden-era AI chip export restrictions, aiming to simplify regulations and boost innovation [5] - Apple is considering integrating AI search features into its Safari browser, potentially ending its long-standing partnership with Google [6] Medical Devices - The domestic medical device market is expected to face pressure in 2024 due to centralized procurement and bidding rhythms, but international expansion remains positive [7][8] - Domestic market revenue growth for medical devices is projected to be flat or negative in the short term, with a gradual recovery expected as inventory is digested [8] - Key players in the medical device sector include Huatai Medical, Aibo Medical, and others, focusing on domestic replacement and international breakthroughs [7][8] Medical Consumables - Overall performance remains stable, with some high-value consumables experiencing a slowdown due to industry restructuring and price adjustments [9] - The electrophysiology sector is expected to maintain rapid growth due to increased domestic penetration and international market expansion [9] In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) - The domestic IVD market is under short-term pressure, with revenue growth projected to be negative in the coming quarters [10] - The overseas market is becoming a significant growth point for IVD companies, with expectations for continued expansion [11] Steel Industry - Steel demand has decreased, with inventory levels rising; however, a recovery is anticipated post-holiday [22][24] - The industry is expected to stabilize as real estate demand declines and infrastructure investment continues [24] - Recommendations include leading steel companies like Baosteel and Hualing Steel, which are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and high-quality development [21][24] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Risks include uncertainties in trade relations, domestic growth policies not meeting expectations, and geopolitical risks affecting the technology sector [2][5][6] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with a focus on innovation and adaptation in response to regulatory changes and competitive pressures [5][6][9] - The medical device sector is seeing a shift towards domestic production and international market penetration, with significant growth potential in high-end equipment and diagnostics [7][8]

策略研究 / 2025.05.12 关税缓和下全球风险偏好回暖 一全球股市立体投资策略周报 本报告导读: 1上周全球股市基本收平,结构上金融、可选消费、能源表现领先, 风险偏好普遍回暖。2海外流动性边际转紧,全球央行降息预期延 后。3从经济景气预期看,美国、欧洲边际改善,中国继续抬升。 投资要点: | 吴信坤(分析师) | | --- | | 021-38676666 | | S0880525040061 | | 陈菲(分析师) | | 021-38676666 | | S0880525040127 | 比下降。从投资者情绪看,港股方面,上周港股卖空占比较前周环 比下降,处于历史高位;美股方面,上周 NAAIM 经理人持仓指数 较前周环比上升,处于历史偏高位。从波动率看,上周港股、美股、 欧股、日股波动率均下降。从估值看,上周发达市场整体估值较前 周下降,新兴市场整体估值较前周提升。 参研究报 因欧洲关税冲击缓和、4月经济数据偏强提振预期;花旗中国经济 意外指数从 44.1 升至 50.5,为 23年5月以来最高水平,受益于政 策发力与中美谈判顺利。 目录 | 1. 全球市场:上周全球风险偏好出现回升 | | ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that since April 2025, the government bond futures have formed a "double top" pattern, suggesting a potential weakening of bullish momentum in the short term [4][6][8] - Historical analysis shows that similar double top formations often lead to a period of consolidation, indicating that further accumulation of bullish momentum is necessary for a breakout [4][6][8] Technical Analysis - The report highlights that on April 3, 2025, following the announcement of increased tariffs on China by the U.S., government bond futures experienced a significant jump, with T2506 and TL2506 reaching peak values of 109.18 yuan and 121.80 yuan respectively on April 7 [4][6] - After a series of fluctuations, the market sentiment improved following the issuance of special government bonds on April 24, but the futures did not break through previous highs, confirming the formation of the double top [4][6][8] - The key support levels are identified at the previous "neckline" positions, with TL contract at 119.2 yuan and T contract at 108.6 yuan [8] Market Sentiment and Positioning - The report notes that the past week saw a slight increase in the number of bullish institutions for the T contract, while the TL contract showed a balance between bullish and bearish positions, indicating a relatively even market sentiment despite recent monetary easing measures [13] - The bullish sentiment is reflected in the IRR (Internal Rate of Return) strategies for T and TL contracts, which are currently above 2%, suggesting favorable conditions for these strategies [15][19] Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests that the basis strategy may be suitable for taking profits, as the basis for various contracts is currently low, indicating potential for convergence [19] - A cross-period strategy involving TS2506-TS2509 is recommended, as the IRR for TS contracts remains attractive, allowing for continued holding until the main contract switch [20] - The report also recommends a steep curve strategy, as the short-end rates are more sensitive to liquidity changes, which could provide better value in the current market environment [21][23]

Macro Insights - The macro team believes that the recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions signal a "moderate easing" to "stabilize growth and the market," reflecting the central bank's proactive approach [1][28]. - The central bank's easing cycle is expected to continue, with potential for further rate cuts if economic pressures increase [1][28]. Strategy Insights - The strategy team indicates that positive financial policies will significantly lower the opportunity cost of investing in the Chinese stock market, leading to increased market participation [1][5]. - The discount rate for the Chinese stock market is entering a systematic downward trend, maintaining a positive outlook for A/H shares [5][31]. Fund Evaluation - The fund evaluation team highlights the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds," which emphasizes aligning the interests of public funds with investors through various mechanisms [9][10]. - The plan aims to enhance the quality of development and improve investor service capabilities, particularly focusing on the growth of equity funds [10][12]. Industry Insights - Nonferrous Metals - The nonferrous metals team notes that Huayou Cobalt's multi-site production capacity is steadily being released, with rising cobalt prices expected to boost performance in 2025 [2][19]. - The company has announced a shareholder dividend plan, ensuring that cash distributions over three consecutive years will not be less than 30% of the average distributable profit [19]. Industry Insights - Exoskeleton Robots - The electric new energy team believes that exoskeleton robots represent a successful integration of human intelligence and mechanical power, with diverse application scenarios [5][14]. - Recent favorable policies have led multiple regions to include exoskeleton therapy in medical insurance, indicating a rapid development of the consumer-grade exoskeleton market [15][16]. Policy Insights - Shanghai - The policy team emphasizes Shanghai's commitment to institutional innovation to foster new productive forces, enhancing the city's economic capabilities [20][23]. - The development of strategic emerging industries, such as artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and biomedicine, is crucial for Shanghai's economic transformation [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [12] Core Views - The company's project construction is progressing steadily, with the PO/MTBE unit reaching the expected operational status. The focus on research and innovation has opened up a new track in electronic specialty gases, which is expected to contribute to future performance [3][12] - The company achieved a revenue of 10.228 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.00%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 42.77% to 219 million yuan. The revenue growth was primarily driven by the operation of the PDH unit and increased sales of propylene, propane, and butane. However, the decline in profit was due to a significant drop in the prices of main products, while the decrease in raw material and energy costs was relatively small, leading to a decline in gross profit margin [12] Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported a revenue of 7.306 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 10.228 billion yuan for 2024A, reflecting a 40.00% increase. The net profit for 2023A was 383 million yuan, with a projected decrease to 219 million yuan for 2024A [11][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.11 yuan, with projections of 0.16 yuan for 2025 and 0.21 yuan for 2026. The net asset return rate (ROE) is projected to be 1.9% for 2024, increasing to 5.9% by 2027 [11][12] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 22.956 billion yuan in 2024A to 27.308 billion yuan in 2027E, while total liabilities are expected to increase from 11.574 billion yuan in 2024A to 13.970 billion yuan in 2027E [13] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 8.767 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 4.26 yuan and a target price adjusted to 4.86 yuan [6][12] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.8 based on the current price, and the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 38.30 for 2024 [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the multi-financial sector, indicating an expectation that the sector will outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds," which aims to reform the public fund industry by enhancing governance, product issuance, investment operations, and assessment mechanisms [1]. - The plan emphasizes a shift from a focus on scale to prioritizing investor returns, with a target to achieve a high-quality development "turning point" within approximately three years [1]. - The industry is expected to undergo a transformation, moving from a "scale competition" model to one that values "performance," leading to increased concentration among leading firms and differentiated competition [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Fee Reform - The plan introduces a floating management fee mechanism linked to fund performance, aiming to reduce investor costs and enhance transparency in fee structures [2][11]. - It mandates that leading institutions issue at least 60% of their actively managed equity funds as floating fee products within the next year [2][11]. Long-Term Assessment and Incentive Mechanisms - The reform requires that performance indicators for fund managers and executives have significant weight in assessments, with long-term performance being a key focus [3][12]. - The plan aims to enhance the evaluation system by increasing the weight of long-term performance metrics and investor outcomes in the assessment criteria [3][12]. Equity Investment Growth - The report stresses the need to boost the scale and proportion of equity investments within public funds, promoting innovative products that align with performance and investor returns [4][19]. - It outlines plans for expedited registration processes for various equity fund types, including ETFs and actively managed funds [4][19]. Market Consolidation and Institutional Development - The plan supports market-driven mergers and acquisitions among fund companies, aiming to enhance the capabilities of leading institutions while fostering differentiated development for smaller firms [5][18]. - It emphasizes the establishment of a first-class investment institution through improved product development and research capabilities [5][18]. Investor Service Enhancement - The report highlights the importance of improving investor services, including the launch of a centralized platform for institutional investors to access public fund investments [17]. - It outlines regulatory measures to promote standardized investment advisory services tailored to investor needs [17]. Overall Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a significant restructuring of the public fund industry, with a focus on long-term performance and investor-centric strategies, which is expected to reshape the competitive landscape [1][18].