——2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读： 宏 观 研 究 美联储开启预防式降息周期 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) 2025 年 9 月美联储议息会议降息 25BP 基本符合预期，新一轮预防式降息周期正式 开启，预计年内仍有两次降息，但长期降息节奏仍旧偏缓。预计预防式降息周期下， 后续美债利率下行放缓，美股仍有持续支撑，美元指数先下后震荡。 投资要点： 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.18 | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 收支有待提振 2025.09.17 美国就业：是否有失速风险 2025.09.15 总量需加力，结构有亮点 2025.09.15 信贷与货币：分化延续 2025.09.12 "存款搬家"：如 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [2][9]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 is under pressure year-on-year, with a slight decline in pre-tax profit after excluding the impact of the Hong Kong international corporate tax reform [9]. - The peak season for refined oil transportation is expected to improve performance in the second half of the year, and the company is likely to enhance its dividend yield options [3][9]. - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to HKD 22 billion, 24 billion, and 25 billion respectively, considering the impact of income tax [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decrease from HKD 4,034 million in 2024 to HKD 3,606 million in 2027, reflecting a decline of 3% to 6% over the years [5]. - Gross profit is expected to increase slightly from HKD 2,952 million in 2024 to HKD 2,973 million in 2027 [5]. - Net profit (excluding minority interests) is forecasted to grow from HKD 2,106 million in 2024 to HKD 2,435 million in 2027, with a growth rate of 2% to 8% [5]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to range from 4.84 to 5.48 over the forecast period, while the PB ratio is expected to remain between 0.75 and 0.81 [5]. Market Data - The current stock price is HKD 1.90, with a market capitalization of HKD 11,779 million and a total share count of 6,199 million [6]. - The stock has traded within a range of HKD 1.50 to HKD 2.29 over the past 52 weeks [6]. Dividend Outlook - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio from 40% in 2024 to a potential 50%, which could raise the dividend yield from 7.3% to 9% [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is considered a high-quality target with low valuation and high dividends, showing potential for growth due to a favorable supply-demand rebalancing and moderate raw material prices [3]. - The company has a strong customer base and is expected to leverage its mature overseas production capacity to secure more orders in the future [3]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2024 is HKD 5,061 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be HKD 608 million, reflecting a significant increase of 75.3% [5]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 4.80 in 2024, indicating a low valuation compared to historical averages [5]. Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in elastic fabric production and has established itself as a leader in the lingerie materials market, providing comprehensive procurement solutions for well-known brands [16]. - The company has successfully transitioned to become a significant supplier of sports fabrics, with major clients including ARC'TERYX, NIKE, and adidas [16][27]. Growth Drivers - The company’s revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.4% from 2011 to 2024, with sports fabric revenue growing at a CAGR of 38.2%, outpacing other categories [44]. - The demand for sports apparel is expected to continue growing, benefiting elastic fabric suppliers as consumer health awareness increases [59]. Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the adjustment of production capacity under new trade dynamics, with a focus on high-quality clients and long-term partnerships [11]. - The company has maintained a stable dividend payout ratio of around 50%, with a dividend yield exceeding 9% for four consecutive years [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry [5]. Core Insights - The communication industry experienced steady revenue growth and accelerated profitability in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 1,785 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 160.43 billion yuan, up 11.26% year-on-year [2][8]. - In Q2 2025, the industry continued to show robust growth, with revenue of 942.48 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.91%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 98.68 billion yuan, up 12.33% year-on-year [11]. - Key sectors such as optical modules, communication PCBs, network equipment manufacturers, and IoT modules demonstrated strong performance, ranking among the top five in revenue and net profit growth rates [14][16]. Summary by Sections 1. H1 2025 Performance Overview - The communication industry achieved total revenue of 1,785 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.07%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 160.43 billion yuan, up 11.26% year-on-year [2][8]. 2. AI Industry Chain Investment - Overseas cloud vendors are expected to maintain optimistic growth in capital expenditures, with a total of 95 billion USD in Q2 2025, marking an increase of 82.96% year-on-year [22]. - Major companies like Apple and Meta are significantly increasing their investments in AI infrastructure, indicating a robust outlook for the AI industry chain [22][24]. 3. Sector Performance Changes - The optical module and device sector reported revenue of 479.88 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 64.88%, and net profit of 108.76 billion yuan, up 111.99% year-on-year [31]. - The communication PCB sector achieved revenue of 572.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.66%, and net profit of 80.58 billion yuan, up 80.79% year-on-year [36]. - The network equipment sector generated revenue of 5,071.11 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 28.86%, and net profit of 191.84 billion yuan, up 19.57% year-on-year [40]. 4. Telecom Operators' Performance - The basic telecom operators' sector reported revenue of 10,133.93 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight increase of 0.33% year-on-year, with net profit of 1,136.01 billion yuan, up 5.14% year-on-year [54]. - China Mobile's total connections reached 3.815 billion, with a net increase of 145 million, and its digital transformation revenue grew by 6.6% year-on-year [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company experienced both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in Q2 2025, with expectations for long-term growth potential [2][12]. - The precious metal catalysts are anticipated to perform well across multiple sectors, contributing to the company's growth [12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,785 million, with a decrease of 5.1% from the previous year. However, revenue is expected to grow significantly in the following years, reaching 3,115 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.6% [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline to 113 million in 2023, down 48.9% year-on-year, but is expected to rebound to 351 million by 2027, with a CAGR of 47.4% [4][13]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.86 in 2023 to 2.69 in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [4][13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 11.4% in 2023 to 24.9% in 2027, showcasing enhanced profitability [4][13]. Market Data - The target price for the company's stock is set at 45.56 yuan, compared to the current price of 36.66 yuan, indicating a potential upside [6][12]. - The company has a market capitalization of 4,792 million, with a 52-week price range of 21.11 to 40.61 yuan [6][12]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 1,014 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.86%. The net profit for the same period was 61 million, up 30.83% year-on-year [12]. - The sales volume of catalyst products reached a historical high, with significant growth in various sectors, including pharmaceuticals (49.26%), basic chemicals (185.54%), and environmental new energy (1497.06%) [12]. Product Development - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the fine chemical sector, particularly in basic chemicals, with several new products launched [12]. - The development of high-performance catalysts and automation in production processes has shown significant progress, enhancing the company's competitive edge [12]. Precious Metal Market Outlook - The report highlights the expected recovery in the prices of precious metals, which are crucial for the company's catalyst production. The prices of palladium and platinum have shown positive trends in Q2 2025 [12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI industry is witnessing significant developments, including major investments and technological advancements, indicating a robust growth trajectory - Strategic partnerships, such as Microsoft's $17.4 billion agreement with Nebius for AI computing power, highlight the increasing demand for high-performance AI capabilities [5] - The launch of innovative products like the Fellou CE browser and Microsoft's rStar2-Agent demonstrates the ongoing evolution in AI applications and models [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. AI Industry Dynamics - ASML invested €1.3 billion in Mistral AI, becoming its largest shareholder, with a total funding round of approximately €1.7 billion, valuing Mistral at €10 billion, marking it as Europe's most valuable AI company [4] - Concerns exist regarding potential dilution of ASML's shareholder equity and the risk of an AI bubble, but the investment may stimulate chip demand through increased AI applications [4] 2. AI Application Insights - The Fellou CE browser, the first of its kind, integrates interaction, tasks, and memory to automate cross-application execution and multi-modal creation, achieving a 72% success rate in complex writing tasks [6] 3. AI Large Model Insights - Microsoft's rStar2-Agent, a 14 billion parameter mathematical reasoning agent, aims to enhance long-chain reasoning capabilities, achieving cutting-edge performance with only 510 steps of reinforcement learning training [7] 4. Technology Frontiers - NVIDIA announced the Rubin CPX GPU, designed for long-context AI reasoning, featuring 128GB GDDR7 memory and peak performance of 30 PFlops, with a new AI server architecture expected to launch by the end of 2026 [8][9] - AMD's MI450 aims to surpass NVIDIA's offerings in both training and inference across AI and high-performance computing markets [9] - Meta introduced the DeepConf framework for lightweight reasoning, significantly improving efficiency and accuracy in complex reasoning tasks [10] - The REFRAG framework by Meta optimizes RAG model decoding efficiency, achieving up to 30 times acceleration in generating responses while maintaining accuracy [11] - NVIDIA's UDR system allows for customizable research workflows, enhancing the autonomy and practicality of AI agents in enterprise-level document analysis [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the construction engineering industry [8] Core Insights - In August, broad infrastructure investment decreased by 6.4%, with a month-on-month decline of 4.5 percentage points, while narrow infrastructure investment fell by 5.9%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points [4][6] - Real estate investment in August saw a year-on-year decline of 19.9%, with the drop expanding compared to July [7] - The report highlights a trend towards stabilization in the real estate market, despite ongoing challenges [7] - Infrastructure investment from January to August grew by 2.0% year-on-year, outpacing overall investment growth [7] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - Broad infrastructure investment in August decreased by 6.4%, a decline of 12.6 percentage points compared to the same month in 2024, and a month-on-month drop of 4.5 percentage points [6] - Narrow infrastructure investment fell by 5.9%, with a year-on-year decline of 7.1 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 0.8 percentage points [6] - Specific sectors such as water conservancy saw a significant drop of 29.8% year-on-year, while public facilities decreased by 11.6% [6] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment in August dropped by 19.9% year-on-year, with sales area declining by 11.0% [7] - New construction area fell by 19.8%, and completed area decreased by 21.2% [7] - The report indicates that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with inventory reduction efforts showing results [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends undervalued high-dividend stocks such as China State Construction (dividend yield 4.85%), China Railway Construction (dividend yield 3.74%), and Tunnel Corporation (dividend yield 4.48%) [7] - It also highlights the potential for growth in private investment in infrastructure, particularly in green energy [7]

Downstream Consumption - Real estate sales show marginal improvement, with a 2.3% year-on-year increase in transaction area for 30 major cities as of September 14, 2025. First-tier cities saw a significant increase of 13.2% in transaction area [7][10] - Durable goods consumption is declining, with a 10.0% year-on-year decrease in retail sales of passenger cars during the first week of September. Air conditioning production for both domestic and international markets also saw declines of 6.3% and 16.6% respectively [8][12] Midstream Manufacturing - Construction demand remains weak, but manufacturing activity has improved. The operating rate for manufacturing increased significantly, with a 6.8% rise in the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants [30][34] - The price of rebar has decreased by 1.5%, while the operating rate of blast furnaces has increased by 3.5%, indicating a rebound in steel production despite weak demand [16][17] Upstream Resources - Coal prices remain resilient, with a slight increase of 0.1% in the price of thermal coal as of September 12, 2025. Supply expectations are tight due to ongoing industry consolidation [35][36] - Prices for non-ferrous metals and crude oil have risen, with gold prices increasing by 0.9% and Brent crude oil prices rising by 2.3% due to heightened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [37][38] Logistics and Passenger Flow - Long-distance passenger transport is experiencing seasonal declines, while urban transport activity has increased. Subway ridership in major cities rose by 3.6% week-on-week [42][48] - Freight transport shows marginal improvement, with highway truck traffic increasing by 6.2% and railway freight volume rising by 1.8% [53][54] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has increased by 7.4%, indicating a significant rise in dry bulk shipping rates [55][57]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report tracks important dynamics in the domestic and international "dual carbon" fields from September 8th to September 12th, 2025, mainly in the carbon quota trading area. It shows that last week, carbon quota trading prices in European and American carbon markets decreased, while prices in the South Korean carbon market increased. The trading volume in the South Korean carbon market rose significantly, while the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market decreased. There were also significant developments in the green - development field [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 International Carbon Trading Market Tracking - **European Carbon Quota Price and Volume**: EUA spot price dropped by 1.75% from September 8th to September 12th, and the trading volume increased by 314.67% to 31.10 tons. EUA futures price decreased by 1.79%, and the trading volume decreased by 45.63% to 216.50 tons [6]. - **US Carbon Quota Price and Volume**: EUA futures price declined by 1.81%, and the total trading volume decreased by 7.59% to 169.99 million tons. UKA futures price dropped by 1.73% [12]. - **South Korean Carbon Quota Price and Volume**: KAU25 spot price rose by 10.76%, and the trading volume increased by 72.31% to 60.93 tons [17]. 3.2 Domestic Carbon Market Tracking - **National Carbon Market Carbon Quota Volume and Average Transaction Price**: The cumulative trading volume of carbon emission allowances (CEA) was 532.81 tons, and the cumulative transaction amount was 332.6115 million yuan, with decreases of 36.42% and 38.62% respectively compared to the previous week. The average daily transaction price of CEA was 62.58 yuan/ton, a 4.29% decrease [21]. - **Weekly Average Transaction Price of Carbon Quotas in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets**: Except for HBEA in Hubei and GDEA in Guangdong, the weekly average transaction prices of carbon quotas in domestic pilot carbon markets showed a downward trend. FJEA in Fujian had the largest decline, reaching 10.00% week - on - week and 26.41% month - on - month [25]. - **Trading Volume and Transaction Amount of Carbon Quotas in Domestic Pilot Provincial and Municipal Carbon Markets**: The carbon quota trading in domestic pilot carbon markets was mainly concentrated in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin, accounting for 97.23% of the total weekly trading volume and 98.10% of the total weekly transaction amount. The total weekly trading volume of domestic pilot carbon markets was 21.60 tons, a 118.54% increase [27]. 3.3 Dual - Carbon Frontier Technology Tracking - **China's First Offshore Carbon Dioxide Storage Project Exceeds 100 Million Cubic Meters in Storage**: The Enping 15 - 1 oilfield carbon storage project has successfully stored over 100 million cubic meters of carbon dioxide, marking the maturity of China's offshore carbon dioxide storage technology and providing a new model for marine energy recycling [29]. - **China's Largest All - Vanadium Redox Flow Battery Photovoltaic - Energy Storage Integration Project Conducts Its First Charging Experiment**: The energy storage power station of the project in Jimsar, Xinjiang, has successfully started the first charging experiment, providing key technical support for solving the problem of large - scale new energy grid - connected consumption [32].

Market Performance - The A-share market showed signs of recovery with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.38% and the ESG 300 index increasing by 1.37% during the week of September 8-12, 2025[5] - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was approximately 2.34 trillion yuan, indicating a contraction in liquidity compared to previous periods[5] ESG Fund Issuance - Four new ESG funds were launched in September 2025, with a total issuance of 3.468 billion units, primarily focused on social responsibility and environmental protection[8] - Over the past year, a total of 247 ESG public funds were issued, amounting to a total of 175.072 billion units[8] - As of September 14, 2025, there are 923 existing ESG funds, with the largest share being ESG strategy funds at 50.48% of the total net asset value of 1,028.855 billion yuan[10] Fund Performance - The top-performing fund for the week was the Zhongjia Low-Carbon Economy Six-Month Holding A, achieving a weekly return of 13.47% and a year-to-date return of 72.57%[11] - Other notable funds included Manulife Growth A and Manulife Revitalization A, with returns of 12.70% and 12.20% respectively for the week[12] Green Bond Market - A total of 84 ESG bonds were issued in September 2025, with an issuance amount of 36.3 billion yuan[15] - The total issuance of ESG bonds over the past year reached 1,059 bonds, totaling 1,172 billion yuan[15] - The existing ESG bond market consists of 3,672 bonds, with green bonds making up the largest share at 61.71% of the total outstanding amount of 5.57 trillion yuan[15] Bank Wealth Management Products - In September 2025, 37 new ESG bank wealth management products were launched, with a total of 1,091 products issued over the past year[21] - The existing ESG bank wealth management products total 1,087, with pure ESG products comprising 56.03% of the total[21] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient policy support for ESG initiatives, lack of standardized data reporting, and lower-than-expected product issuance volumes[24]