Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating to Hisense Visual [5] Core Viewpoints - Hisense Visual is positioned as a leading player in the global television market, with a revenue forecast of 58.53 billion in 2024, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% from 2018 to 2024 [1][22] - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of Mini LED technology, with a projected penetration rate of over 18% in China by 2024, up more than 15 percentage points year-on-year [1][31] - Hisense Visual's overseas revenue is anticipated to reach 52% by 2024, reflecting its successful expansion into international markets [1][23] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hisense Visual is a leading player in China's television industry, primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of display-related products, with a focus on televisions, laser displays, and display chips [13][14] - The company operates under three brands: Hisense, Toshiba, and Vidda, targeting different consumer segments and steadily increasing its market share [2][13] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow to 63.74 billion in 2025, with a net profit of 2.59 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 15.4% [3][4] - Hisense Visual's net profit has shown a compound growth rate of 33.7% from 2018 to 2024, indicating strong profitability recovery after previous downturns [22][23] Market Dynamics - The global television market is stabilizing, with a shift towards larger screens and advanced technologies like Mini LED, which is expected to drive up average selling prices [1][32] - The market share of the top four global television brands is projected to increase from 44.5% in 2018 to 56.2% in 2024, indicating a more concentrated industry landscape [1][32] Competitive Advantages - Hisense Visual has a strong technological foundation, having invested over 10 years in ULED technology and leading advancements in Mini LED and AI technologies [2][31] - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain, including upstream chip production, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [2][31] Future Outlook - The company is expected to capture a larger share of the global television market, with new growth opportunities arising from its investments in laser displays, commercial displays, and XR technologies [3][22] - The stock is valued between 24.89 and 29.63 per share, with a market capitalization range of 325 to 387 billion, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][48]. Core Insights - The company is a leading online music streaming platform in China, focusing on a young audience and enhancing its subscription business through an increase in paid user numbers [1][10]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a duopoly between the company and Tencent Music, with the company holding approximately 27% market share [2][13]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 79.5 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, primarily due to a decline in social entertainment services [3][18]. Financial Analysis - The company's core business segments are online music services and social entertainment services, with online music services accounting for 67% of total revenue in 2024 [3][18]. - Online music revenue is expected to reach 53.5 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% [3][18]. - The subscription revenue for 2024 is projected to be 44.6 billion CNY, up 22% year-on-year, driven by an increase in paid user numbers [3][19]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 34%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved cost management [4][34]. - Adjusted profit for 2024 is expected to be 1.7 billion CNY, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 108% [4][28]. Market Positioning - The company has a strong focus on community engagement and emotional connection with users, leveraging user-generated content and a unique review culture to enhance user retention [2][10]. - The company has been gradually regaining music copyrights since the cancellation of exclusive rights in 2021, which is expected to improve its content offerings [2][14]. Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 86.68 billion CNY, 96.76 billion CNY, and 108.10 billion CNY, respectively, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of 9%, 12%, and 12% [9][40]. - Adjusted profits for the same period are forecasted to be 2.1 billion CNY, 2.5 billion CNY, and 3.0 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 21% [9][41]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set between 311 and 354 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 30% to 48% from the current price [4][42]. - The company is compared favorably against international peers like Spotify and domestic competitor Tencent Music, with a projected PE ratio for 2025 of 29-33x [4][42].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][10] Core Views - The company has launched new products including the Xiaomi YU7 SUV and AI glasses, enhancing its ecosystem across vehicles, homes, and personal devices [3][4][10] - The company emphasizes R&D investment, planning to allocate 200 billion yuan over the next five years to core technology areas [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated development of AI applications, with a comprehensive strategy covering AI-enabled devices across various sectors [4][10] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow by 35.7% in 2025, 27.2% in 2026, and 14.8% in 2027, reaching 496.7 billion, 631.8 billion, and 725.1 billion yuan respectively [4][10] - Net profit is expected to increase by 64.2% in 2025, 28.4% in 2026, and 32.7% in 2027, amounting to 38.8 billion, 49.9 billion, and 66.1 billion yuan respectively [4][10] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 36.7, 28.6, and 21.6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4][10] Product Launches - The Xiaomi YU7 SUV has three versions with significant pre-order success, exceeding 200,000 units within three minutes of launch [5][10] - The AI glasses are designed as a personal smart device with a weight of 40g and a 12-megapixel camera, priced starting at 1999 yuan [3][7][10]

- The quant report highlights that the factors "single-quarter revenue growth," "SUR," and "analyst net upgrade" performed well in the past month, while "EPTTM," "volatility," and "stripped limit-up momentum" performed poorly[3][28] - For the year to date, the factors "total market capitalization," "SUE," and "SUR" have shown strong performance, whereas "expected dividend yield," "volatility," and "EPTTM" have underperformed[3][28] - The "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 5.34% for the month (20250603-20250630) and an excess return of 1.00% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][43] - Year-to-date (20250102-20250630), the "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 10.59% and an excess return of 2.73% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][43] - The "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" ranked in the 28.16th percentile among active equity funds for the year to date (977/3469)[5][43] - The portfolio's annualized return from 2018 to 2025 was 19.34%, with an annualized excess return of 14.38% relative to the mixed equity fund index[45] - The portfolio consistently ranked in the top 30% of active equity funds each year from 2018 to 2025[45]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In June, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI output indices were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7%, respectively, with month-on-month increases of 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points[2] - The manufacturing PMI has remained below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months, indicating ongoing economic pressure[3] - Non-manufacturing PMI showed resilience, particularly in the construction sector, which saw significant growth driven by residential and construction engineering[3] Group 2: Production and Demand Insights - Production and demand both rebounded, with demand rising above the boom-bust line, and the increase in demand outpacing production[4] - New orders increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2, new export orders rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, and existing orders improved by 0.4 percentage points to 45.2[4] - Raw material inventory continued to rise, with the inventory of finished products significantly increasing by 1.6 percentage points to 48.1[5] Group 3: Price and Profitability Trends - Price indices rebounded for the first time since February, with the purchasing price index rising by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4, while the factory price index also increased by 1.5 percentage points to 46.2[5] - Despite the price increases, profit pressures for enterprises have not improved, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability[5] Group 4: Sector Performance - In the manufacturing sector, 6 out of 15 industries (40%) were in a prosperous range, an increase from 4 in May, with notable performance in petroleum processing, chemical fiber, and electrical equipment[6] - In the non-manufacturing sector, 10 out of 19 industries (53%) were in a prosperous range, a decrease from 13 in the previous month, with strong performance in postal services and civil engineering[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Xiaomi Group and several related companies, including Huayang Group, Top Group, Yinhong Shares, Hesai Technology, and others [4]. Core Views - Xiaomi's Yu7 has officially launched, marking its entry into the mid-to-high-end SUV market, with a market size exceeding 3 million vehicles [3][64]. - The Yu7's market performance is strong, with over 240,000 orders within 18 hours of its launch, indicating robust demand [37]. - The report highlights the competitive advantages of the Yu7 over Tesla's Model Y in various aspects, including price, dimensions, dynamic performance, and range [71][75]. Summary by Sections Product Launch and Features - Xiaomi Yu7 was launched on June 26, 2025, with three SKUs: Standard version priced at 253,500 CNY, PRO version at 279,900 CNY, and MAX version at 329,900 CNY [12]. - The Yu7 features a sleek design, multiple color options, and advanced technology, including a V6s PLUS motor and an 800V silicon carbide high-voltage platform [28][36]. - The vehicle offers impressive specifications, such as a maximum speed of 253 km/h and a range of 835 km for the Standard version [28]. Market Analysis - The 20-40 million CNY SUV market is projected to grow, with a penetration rate of 57.80% for new energy vehicles in the first five months of 2025 [3][65]. - The report anticipates Xiaomi's vehicle sales to reach 400,000 to 500,000 units in 2025, with potential to exceed 800,000 units in 2026 [80]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that Tesla's Model Y leads the market, but Xiaomi's Yu7 is positioned competitively, with advantages in several key performance metrics [67][71]. - The report emphasizes Xiaomi's established automotive ecosystem and its strategic investments in the automotive supply chain, enhancing its competitive edge [58]. Company Performance - Xiaomi's automotive business has shown strong initial performance, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 18.6 billion CNY [47]. - The company has a solid production capacity plan, with ongoing expansions in its manufacturing facilities in Beijing, Wuhan, and Shanghai [76][80].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][13] Core Viewpoints - The controlling shareholder has increased its stake in the company, acquiring 4.0665 million shares for a total of approximately RMB 99.97 million, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term development [2][3][4] - The long-term contract prices for refrigerants have been established in Q3, with expectations for continued retail price growth [3][4][6] - The main refrigerant varieties have seen price increases over the past two years, supported by supply-side constraints, indicating a sustained boom cycle in the refrigerant market [3][6][7] - The company, as a leader in fluorochemical products, benefits from a comprehensive industrial chain layout and significant cost advantages, with the highest refrigerant quota in China, positioning it well for the long-term growth of the refrigerant market [3][13] Financial Forecasts - The forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 4.114 billion, RMB 4.823 billion, and RMB 5.170 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.52, RMB 1.79, and RMB 1.92 [3][13] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 18.9, 16.0, and 14.9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][13] - The company has been enhancing its core competitiveness and optimizing its industrial and product structure through continuous investment in advanced fluorinated chemical materials [3][13]

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the trend of central banks increasing gold purchases as part of a de-dollarization strategy, with average annual gold demand from central banks rising from 509.1 tons (2011-2021) to 1072.3 tons (2022-2024) [8][9] - It highlights the significant deviation between GDP share and foreign exchange reserve share for China and the US, indicating a potential investment opportunity in gold as a reserve asset [8] Energy and Electronics - The report notes that the penetration of silicon carbide (SiC) in new energy vehicles has increased, with SiC MOSFETs accounting for 18.6% of the main drive modules in new energy passenger cars from January to May 2025 [10] - It mentions that the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.31 million units in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.9% [10] - The report indicates a stable growth in the number of charging stations, with an increase of 158.3 thousand units from January to May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.2% [11] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI applications, with a projected CAGR of 7% for 300mm wafer capacity from 2024 to 2028 [14] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Micron, which reported a revenue of $9.3 billion for FY25Q3, a year-on-year increase of 37% [15] - It recommends focusing on semiconductor manufacturing companies such as SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor due to the expected growth in AI-related demand [14] Real Estate - The real estate sector is facing a continued downturn, with a significant drop in sales and investment, as indicated by a year-on-year decrease in new housing transactions in 30 cities [19][20] - The report suggests that the current low market sentiment may open up opportunities for investment in real estate stocks, particularly in companies like China Resources Land and Beike [19] Food and Beverage - The report indicates that the price of Moutai has stabilized, and the overall performance of the liquor industry is expected to improve as companies focus on inventory reduction and market health [23] - It highlights the positive outlook for the beer and snack sectors due to seasonal demand increases, recommending companies like Yanjing Beer and Ajinomoto [24] Media and Internet - The media sector has seen a rise in the number of game approvals, with 147 domestic and 11 imported titles approved in June, marking a year-to-date high [26] - The report notes the strong performance of AI applications in various sectors, including gaming and advertising, suggesting investment in companies like Tencent and ByteDance [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the travel chain industry [1][5][7]. Core Insights - The demand for service consumption shows resilience, with different opportunities corresponding to various urban depths and generational segments in China [1][61]. - The online travel agency (OTA) sector benefits from the recovery in tourism and upstream expansion, with leading companies maintaining stable profit margins [2][62]. - The hotel industry faces a supply-demand imbalance, with leading players actively seeking to expand their market share through refined operations and high-quality growth [3][63]. Demand Trends - Service consumption is experiencing robust growth, with a notable increase in consumer confidence and spending [14][18]. - The tourism sector is expected to maintain strong demand, particularly during the summer season, with a significant increase in travel intentions [35][54]. - Different generational groups exhibit varying consumption patterns, with younger consumers prioritizing experiences and social connections [25][40]. Platform Dynamics - The ecological value of platforms is becoming increasingly prominent, with competition intensifying as new players enter the market [2][62]. - Leading platforms are leveraging their ecosystem to enhance supplier relationships and drive revenue growth through innovative product offerings [64][65]. - The competitive landscape remains stable, with established players maintaining their market positions despite new entrants [67][69]. Hotel Industry Insights - The hotel supply is expanding, with a projected growth rate of 5-10% in 2025, while the RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) is showing signs of recovery [3][63]. - High-end and mid-range hotels are focusing on brand differentiation and operational efficiency to capture market share [3][64]. - The trend towards chain hotels is expected to continue, particularly in lower-tier cities where expansion opportunities are significant [3][63]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term demand for travel is anticipated to remain strong, with specific recommendations for companies such as Ctrip Group, Meituan, and Atour [4][7]. - The report suggests that companies with efficient operational models and strong brand recognition are likely to outperform in the medium term [4][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.63-1.7 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.57%-17.4%. The second quarter is projected to generate 827-897 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.5%-22% [4][5]. - The ongoing招商 (招商 refers to the process of attracting businesses to occupy commercial spaces) at the global digital trade center is expected to significantly contribute to the company's performance, with the fashion jewelry sector already completed and other sectors like children's products and skincare currently in the招商 phase [4][6]. - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong to apply for a TCSP license is anticipated to enhance the company's cross-border payment services, transitioning from a payment tool to a comprehensive financial service platform [5][11]. Summary by Sections Global Digital Trade Center - The global digital trade center is a key project for the company, with a total investment exceeding 8.3 billion yuan and an area of over 1.25 million square meters. The market section, which is the main engine, covers 410,000 square meters and is expected to open in October 2025 [6][10]. - The招商 for the fashion jewelry sector has attracted over 4,000 businesses, with bidding prices ranging from 110,000 to 124,000 yuan per square meter, indicating strong demand [4][6]. - The expected revenue contribution from the market section is estimated to be between 16.3 billion and 20.3 billion yuan, primarily from entry fees and merchant fees [10]. Cross-Border Payment Business - The company’s cross-border payment business, yiwupay, is projected to exceed 4 billion USD in cross-border receipts in 2024, with a net profit of approximately 61.04 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 274.67% [11][12]. - The company aims to leverage financial technology to enhance trade facilitation, with innovative payment tools like stablecoins expected to provide efficient and low-cost cross-border payment solutions [12]. Financial Forecast - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is revised to 4.032 billion, 6.408 billion, and 7.832 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.1, 17.7, and 14.5 times [5][14].