证券研究报告 | 2025年09月08日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-09-05 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3812.51 | 12590.56 | 4460.32 | 13658.45 | 3723.10 | 1268.55 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 1.23 | 3.89 | 2.17 | 2.72 | 4.72 | 3.38 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 9790.61 | 13255.96 | 6641.66 | 4622.83 | 6719.92 | 747.41 | $$\overline{{{\overline{{\mathbb{M}}}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ 【常规内容】 宏观与策略 宏观专题:大象转身——房地产视角下的宏观经济 宏观周报:宏观经济宏观周报-高频指标走势继续放缓 固 定 收 益 快 评 : 可 交 换 私 募 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market first rebounded and then declined. After the end of the month, the liquidity continued to ease. The stock - bond seesaw effect persisted. The stock market tumbled for three consecutive days from Tuesday to Thursday, leading to a stronger bond market. On Friday, the stock market had a "bullish engulfing pattern," causing the bond market to slump. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread increased slightly [1][12]. - For the 30 - year Treasury bond, as of September 5, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 28BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy in July still faced downward pressure, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.3% year - on - year, a significant decline from the first half of the year. There was still deflation risk with CPI at 0.0% and PPI at - 3.6% in July. The short - term bond market will face the game between expectation and reality, with the 10 - year Treasury bond oscillating in the range of [1.65%, 1.8%]. The current term spread of the 30 - year Treasury bond is still low, with limited protection [2][13]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of September 5, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year Treasury bond was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economic situation in July was similar to that of the 30 - year Treasury bond analysis. The short - term bond market situation was also the same. The current variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is still low, with limited protection [3][14]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market first rebounded and then declined. After the end of the month, the liquidity continued to ease. The stock - bond seesaw effect persisted. The stock market tumbled for three consecutive days from Tuesday to Thursday, leading to a stronger bond market. On Friday, the stock market had a "bullish engulfing pattern," causing the bond market to slump. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened, and the variety spread increased slightly [1][12]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury bond: As of September 5, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 28BP, at a historically low level. The domestic economy in July still faced downward pressure, with the estimated GDP growth rate of about 4.3% year - on - year, a significant decline from the first half of the year. There was still deflation risk with CPI at 0.0% and PPI at - 3.6% in July. The short - term bond market will face the game between expectation and reality, with the 10 - year Treasury bond oscillating in the range of [1.65%, 1.8%]. The current term spread of the 30 - year Treasury bond is still low, with limited protection [2][13]. - 20 - year CDB bond: As of September 5, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year Treasury bond was 4BP, at a historically extremely low level. The domestic economic situation in July was similar to that of the 30 - year Treasury bond analysis. The short - term bond market situation was also the same. The current variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is still low, with limited protection [3][14]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.8 trillion. As of August 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of more than 14 years was 228,873 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 14.7% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds were the main varieties. By variety, Treasury bonds accounted for 26.5% (60,623 billion), local government bonds accounted for 67.5% (154,423 billion), etc. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [15]. Primary Market Last Week's Issuance - The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds increased slightly last week. From September 1 to September 5, 2025, a total of 1,238 billion yuan of ultra - long bonds were issued. By variety, Treasury bonds accounted for 820 billion, local government bonds accounted for 418 billion, etc. By term, the issuance of 15 - year bonds was 244 billion, 20 - year bonds was 1 billion, 30 - year bonds was 99 billion, and 50 - year bonds was 0 billion [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan of ultra - long bonds this week totals 1,676 billion. In terms of variety, ultra - long Treasury bonds are 820 billion, ultra - long local government bonds are 418 billion, etc. [25] Secondary Market Trading Volume - The trading of ultra - long bonds was relatively active last week. The trading volume of ultra - long bonds was 10,408 billion, accounting for 14.4% of the total bond trading volume. By variety, the trading volume of ultra - long Treasury bonds was 8,650 billion, accounting for 43.4% of the total Treasury bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long local bonds was 1,622 billion, accounting for 43.1% of the total local bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long policy - financial bonds was 64 billion, accounting for 0.3% of the total policy - financial bond trading volume; the trading volume of ultra - long government agency bonds was 5 billion, accounting for 38.3% of the total government agency bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds decreased slightly last week compared with the previous week [28]. Yields - Last week, the bond market first rebounded and then declined. After the end of the month, the liquidity continued to ease. The stock - bond seesaw effect persisted. The stock market tumbled for three consecutive days from Tuesday to Thursday, leading to a stronger bond market. On Friday, the stock market had a "bullish engulfing pattern," causing the bond market to slump. In terms of Treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 3BP, 0BP, - 3BP, and 0BP to 1.99%, 2.10%, 2.11%, and 2.14% respectively. For CDB bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by - 2BP, 0BP, - 1BP, and - 2BP to 2.05%, 2.13%, 2.19%, and 2.35% respectively. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by - 5BP, - 6BP, and - 5BP to 2.22%, 2.26%, and 2.26% respectively. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 1BP, 0BP, and 0BP to 2.17%, 2.19%, and 2.33% respectively. For representative individual bonds, the yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond active bond 25 ultra - long special Treasury bond 02 changed by - 0.95BP to 2.02%, and the yield of the 20 - year CDB bond active bond 21 CDB 20 changed by - 0.98BP to 2.08% [34][35]. Spread Analysis - Term spread: The term spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, but the absolute level was low. The spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds was 28BP, an increase of 2BP compared with the previous week, at the 11% quantile since 2010 [40]. - Variety spread: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, but the absolute level was low. The spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the Treasury bond was 4BP, and the spread between the 20 - year railway bond and the Treasury bond was 11BP, changing by 0BP and 1BP respectively compared with the previous week, at the 7% quantile since 2010 [46]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - The main contract TL2512 of the 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 116.35 yuan last week, a decrease of 0.17%. The total trading volume of 30 - year Treasury bond futures was 699,800 lots (- 208,400 lots), and the open interest was 142,600 lots (2,221 lots). The trading volume decreased significantly compared with the previous week, while the open interest increased slightly [48].

2025年09月08日 证券研究报告 | 风电产业链双周度跟踪（9月第1期） 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师：王晓声 010-88005231 wangxiaosheng@guosen.com.cn S0980523050002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 海风方面，25年上半年江苏、广东重大项目陆续迎来开工。二季度进入交付旺季；25年是国管海风开发元年，预计规划、竞配、招标、政策下半年有望落地。"十五五"期间年均海风装机 有望超20GW，远超"十四五"水平。陆风方面，25年行业装机有望达100GW创历史新高，年初以来零部件企业迎来量价齐增，全年业绩有望大幅增长；上半年主机企业国内制造盈利磨底， 随着涨价后订单的陆续交付，三季度交付端将迎来单价和毛利率双重修复。中国风机出海方兴未艾，25-26年新增订单保持高增，进一步提供利润弹性。 【投资建议】 • 建议关注三大方向：1）出口布局领先的管桩、海缆龙头；2）国内盈 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the AIDC power equipment and grid industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The AIDC power equipment sector is benefiting from strong capital expenditure in AI and cloud infrastructure, with significant investments from major companies like Alibaba and Tencent [4][17] - The industry is expected to see a shift in the value chain towards Chinese companies as domestic enterprises enhance their competitive advantages in various segments of the data center industry [4] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for global AIDC construction, with major cloud providers expected to ramp up capital expenditures [4] - The report suggests focusing on technological innovations in data center power distribution, particularly the adoption of 800V HVDC and solid-state transformers [4] Summary by Sections AIDC Power Equipment - Recent capital expenditures in AI and cloud by Alibaba reached 38.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 220%, while Tencent's capital expenditure was 19.1 billion yuan, up 119% year-on-year [4][17] - The AIDC power equipment sector has shown varied performance, with the top gainers being battery backup units (BBU) at +14.9%, high voltage direct current (HVDC) at +5.0%, and transformers and switchgear at +2.2% [4] - The report identifies key companies in various segments, including transformers/switchgear (e.g., Jinpan Technology, Mingyang Electric) and UPS/HVDC (e.g., Zhongheng Electric, Keda Technology) [4] - The projected demand for AIDC power equipment from 2025 to 2030 is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 20%, with market sizes for dry-type transformers, medium and low voltage switchgear, UPS, and HVDC expected to reach 85 billion, 341 billion, 41 billion, and 380 billion yuan respectively by 2030 [12] Grid Industry - In July 2025, the national power engineering investment was 65.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.9%, while the cumulative investment from January to July was 428.8 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1% [32] - The report highlights that the high voltage direct current (HVDC) sector is expected to see a concentration of orders and deliveries in the second half of the year, with significant opportunities for companies involved in new products and market expansion [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming reforms in the electricity market, including power trading and virtual power plants, which are expected to mature gradually [4] - Key areas of focus for the grid industry include high voltage orders, virtual power plants, and international expansion of power equipment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][13]. Core Views - The company demonstrated stable performance with an 8% increase in net profit and a 14% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, achieving revenue of 25.1 billion yuan and net profit of 1.1 billion yuan [1][7]. - Despite a 3% decrease in sales area, the company achieved a 20% increase in sales amount, reaching 53.4 billion yuan, marking its entry into the top ten of the industry [1][9]. - The company has strategically acquired 16 quality projects with a total land cost of 49.2 billion yuan, all located in first- and second-tier cities, with significant investments in Beijing and Shanghai [1][9]. Financial Performance - The company has successfully reduced costs, with sales, management, and financial expenses decreasing by 15%, 5%, and 4% respectively [2][11]. - The average financing cost for new domestic and foreign financing in the first half of 2025 was 2.7%, significantly lower than at the end of 2024 [2][11]. - The company’s financial status remains robust, with a total unsold value of approximately 320 billion yuan, 69% of which is concentrated in economically developed regions [1][9]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Metrics - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 56 billion yuan and net profits of 1.1 billion yuan in 2025, with corresponding EPS of 0.08 yuan and PE ratios of 17.7 [2][14]. - The report outlines a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins, with expected EBIT margins of 6.5% in 2025 and a net asset return (ROE) of 2% [3][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][24]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue and profit growth, with a significant increase in overseas and external network business [1][2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 24.243 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.54%, and a net profit of 2.952 billion yuan, up 8.82% year-on-year [1][8]. - The company is experiencing rapid growth in smart grid and low-carbon energy businesses, with smart grid revenue reaching 12.225 billion yuan, up 28.37% year-on-year [2][22]. - The company has signed new contracts worth 35.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.46%, with over 50% of contracts coming from outside the State Grid [2][23]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 15.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.50%, and a net profit of 2.272 billion yuan, up 7.33% year-on-year [1][22]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 26.45%, down 2.58 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 12.89%, down 1.38 percentage points year-on-year [1][8]. Business Segments - The company’s smart grid revenue was 12.225 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 30.34%, while low-carbon energy revenue reached 6.541 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 21.59% [2][22]. - The overseas revenue saw a remarkable increase of 139% year-on-year, contributing to 46% of the total revenue from external networks [2][23]. Future Outlook - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.147 yuan per share, totaling 1.175 billion yuan, which accounts for 45.72% of the net profit for the first half of the year [2][23]. - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 8.369 billion yuan, 9.462 billion yuan, and 10.716 billion yuan respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 21, 19, and 17 times [24][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5][21]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 9.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7%, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, up 37% year-on-year [6][21]. - The wind turbine blade business saw significant growth, with sales volume reaching 13.0 GW in the first half of 2025, a 97% increase year-on-year [14][17]. - The new materials division is expected to become a new profit growth point, with the company actively developing a range of advanced materials [3][17]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 5.1 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 152 million yuan, up 49% year-on-year [6][21]. - The comprehensive gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 16.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [6][21]. - The company forecasts revenues of 22.75 billion yuan, 25.43 billion yuan, and 28.79 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 650 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 970 million yuan [20][21]. Business Segments - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows wind turbine blades at 3.88 billion yuan (up 38% year-on-year), rail transit at 960 million yuan (down 17%), industrial engineering at 740 million yuan (down 18%), automotive parts at 3.39 billion yuan (down 7%), and new materials at 250 million yuan (up 117%) [2][13]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the wind turbine blade segment generated 2.16 billion yuan in revenue, a 46% increase year-on-year, while rail transit and industrial engineering segments saw declines of 4% and 17% respectively [2][13]. Future Outlook - The company aims to expand its new materials product matrix, which includes high-end polyurethane, silicone materials, and HP-RTM structural materials, potentially driving new profit growth [3][17]. - The forecast for the company's earnings per share is projected to be 0.79 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.2 times [20][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry in H1 2025 shows signs of stabilization in overall volume and structural differentiation, with revenue growth of +2.5% in Q1 and +2.4% in Q2 year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by -2.1% in Q2 [4][5] - The liquor sector is experiencing a consensus on deceleration, with many companies entering an adjustment phase. In Q2, major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye managed to achieve positive growth despite overall revenue declines in the sector [4][6] - The consumer goods sector benefits from proactive inventory reduction and macroeconomic policy support, leading to improved operations for leading companies in H1 2025. High-growth segments include sugar-free tea, functional beverages, and snacks [4][6] Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - In H1 2025, the liquor industry saw a revenue of 330.42 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.19% year-on-year, while profits fell by 10.93% to 87.69 billion yuan. The number of large-scale enterprises decreased by over 100 compared to the previous year [7][8] - Major liquor companies reported a total revenue of 244.04 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 95.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.3% [7][8] - High-end liquor companies achieved a total revenue of 160.3 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, accounting for 65.7% of total revenue from listed companies [7][8] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is showing signs of recovery, with leading companies like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng Beverage reporting strong revenue growth due to product innovation and channel expansion [4][6] - The snack segment is experiencing cost pressures due to rising prices of raw materials, but some companies are improving profitability through scale efficiency and quality enhancement [4][6] - Investment recommendations highlight quality leaders such as Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Dongpeng Beverage as key targets for potential investment opportunities [4][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changbai Mountain (603099.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The summer peak season showed strong visitor performance, with policies, transportation improvements, and expansion of scenic areas laying the groundwork for the winter season [2][3] - The company’s revenue for H1 2025 was 240 million yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.05 million yuan, a decrease of 109.8% [10] - The company anticipates a recovery in profits during the third quarter, supported by strong summer visitor numbers and favorable policies promoting the ice and snow economy [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company’s revenue was 240 million yuan, with a net profit of -2.05 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline due to weather disruptions and increased labor costs [10] - Q1 and Q2 revenues were 129 million yuan and 107 million yuan, showing a year-on-year change of +0.73% and -15.7% respectively [10] Visitor Trends - From July to August, the main scenic area received 1.63 million visitors, an increase of 26% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in visitor numbers [2] - The company aims to achieve a visitor target of 4 million for 2025, representing a 17.3% year-on-year growth [2] Policy and Transportation Developments - The government is actively promoting the ice and snow economy, with a target for the total scale of the ice and snow economy to reach 1.2 trillion yuan by 2027 [2] - The opening of the Shenyang-Baihe high-speed railway is expected to significantly reduce travel time and increase visitor numbers, with an estimated annual capacity of over 10 million passengers [3] Company Growth Initiatives - The company has received approval for a private placement project to raise 236 million yuan, which will be invested in the second phase of the volcanic hot spring project and transportation equipment upgrades [4] - The second phase of the volcanic hot spring project is expected to be completed by 2025, adding approximately 400 guest rooms [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][19][20] Core Views - The company's performance is steadily increasing, driven by the booming energy storage installation market, with a projected net profit of 77.35 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 56% [1][4] - The energy storage business has become a core pillar, contributing 178.03 billion yuan in revenue in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 127.78% [2][14] - The photovoltaic inverter business also shows robust growth, with a revenue of 153.27 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, up 17.06% year-on-year [2][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 435.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.3%, and a gross profit margin of 34.4%, up 1.9 percentage points [1][9] - For Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 244.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%, and a net profit of 39.08 billion yuan, up 36.5% year-on-year [1][9] Business Segments - The energy storage segment's revenue accounted for 40.89% of total revenue, surpassing the inverter segment for the first time [2][14] - The photovoltaic inverter segment continues to expand globally, with a significant increase in global photovoltaic installations, reaching 310 GW in the first half of 2025, a 60% year-on-year growth [2][14] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 139.70 billion yuan, 145.95 billion yuan, and 150.84 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [4][19] - The company is also venturing into the AIDC power supply business, leveraging its expertise in power electronics to create a comprehensive solution integrating photovoltaic generation, energy storage, and AIDC power supply [3][18]