Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services sector [3][24]. Core Insights - The rapid iteration and commercialization of AI education products are enhancing visibility in the market, with companies like New Oriental and Tianli International Holdings launching innovative AI applications [1][16]. - The consumer services sector has shown resilience, with a reported increase of 1.70% during the review period, outperforming the broader market by 0.21 percentage points [12][14]. - Major companies in the sector, such as Meituan and Alibaba, are implementing strategic upgrades to enhance their market positions and operational efficiencies [16][17]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies like Mixue Group, Atour, Tianli International Holdings, China Oriental Education, and Ctrip Group, among others, for potential investment opportunities [3][24]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Meituan is expanding its instant retail business with a focus on supply chain enhancement and category expansion [16]. - Alibaba has integrated Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce ecosystem to create a comprehensive consumer platform [16]. - The successful IPO of Cao Cao Travel on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange highlights the company's innovative model in the ride-hailing sector [17]. Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the consumer services sector include significant gains for companies like New Macau International Development and MGM China, with increases of 19.94% and 19.10% respectively [14][15]. - The report also notes changes in shareholding percentages for various companies, indicating increased investor interest in Tianli International Holdings and Mixue Group [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [3][35]. Core Insights - The AI sector is witnessing significant advancements with major companies launching new technologies and applications, such as Tencent's open-source MoE model and Google's Gemini CLI [1][26]. - The e-commerce industry remains competitive, with platforms focusing on merchant incentives and investments in instant retail to seek new growth [3][32]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of AI applications across various sectors, including healthcare, education, and entertainment, showcasing the integration of AI into everyday services [20][25][22]. Summary by Sections Company Dynamics - Tencent launched its first open-source MoE model, Hunyuan-A13B, with 80 billion total parameters and 13 billion active parameters [18]. - Ant Group introduced the AI Health Manager AQ, offering over a hundred AI functionalities for healthcare management [20]. - Douyin (TikTok) released the AI "探饭" product, providing intelligent food recommendations [21]. Underlying Technologies - MiniMax released several new models, including the MiniMax-M1, which supports the highest input context of 1 million and output of 80,000 tokens [27]. - The introduction of Hailuo 02, a new video generation model, and MiniMax Agent, a general-purpose intelligent agent, reflects ongoing innovation in AI capabilities [27]. Industry Policies - The Central Cyberspace Administration of China is actively addressing AI technology misuse, having dealt with over 3,500 non-compliant AI products [28]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the importance of nurturing emerging industries and advancing the "AI+" initiative [29]. - Guangdong Province's government is promoting the development of general and industry-specific large models as part of its economic strategy [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (from June 23 to June 27, 2025), the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 3.04%. Among broad - based ETFs, the median return of ChiNext - related ETFs was 5.93%, the highest. By sector, the median return of technology ETFs was 4.17%, the highest. By theme, the median return of securities ETFs was 7.46%, the highest [1][13]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 15.863 billion yuan, but the overall scale increased by 72.659 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, A500ETF had the largest net subscription of 7.703 billion yuan; by sector, consumer ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.839 billion yuan; by theme, bank ETFs had the largest net subscription of 3.078 billion yuan [2][29]. - As of last Friday, the valuation quantiles of ChiNext - related ETFs among broad - based ETFs were relatively low; by sector, the valuation quantiles of consumer ETFs were relatively moderate; by sub - theme, the valuation quantiles of wine and photovoltaic ETFs were relatively low. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 1000, chip, technology, A500, securities, cyclical, AI, and CSI 500 ETFs increased significantly [3]. - From Monday to Thursday last week, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 40.772 billion yuan in the previous week to 41.052 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.086 billion shares in the previous week to 2.084 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases and short - selling volumes, the average daily margin trading purchases of STAR Market ETFs and chip ETFs were relatively high, and the average daily short - selling volumes of A500ETF and CSI 300ETF were relatively high [4]. - Last week, 4 new ETFs were established. This week, 8 ETFs, including Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Smart Selection STAR Market Value 50 Strategy ETF, will be issued [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - Last week, the median weekly return of equity ETFs was 3.04%. Among broad - based ETFs, ChiNext - related, CSI 1000, CSI 500, STAR Market, A500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 ETFs had median returns of 5.93%, 4.72%, 4.07%, 3.69%, 2.62%, 2.22%, and 1.69% respectively. Cross - border, bond, money - market, and commodity ETFs had median returns of 2.91%, 0.02%, 0.02%, and - 1.82% respectively [13]. - By sector, the median returns of technology, cyclical, large - finance, and consumer sector ETFs were 4.17%, 3.60%, 3.34%, and 1.15% respectively. By theme, securities, military, and new energy vehicle ETFs had median returns of 7.46%, 6.32%, and 5.52% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while wine, bank, and dividend ETFs had median returns of - 1.01%, 0.85%, and 0.97% respectively, showing relatively weak performance [17]. ETF Scale Change and Net Subscription/Redeem - As of last Friday, the scales of equity, cross - border, bond, money - market, and commodity ETFs were 2,998.2 billion yuan, 581.4 billion yuan, 376 billion yuan, 160.4 billion yuan, and 155.6 billion yuan respectively. Among broad - based ETFs, CSI 300 and A500ETF had relatively large scales. By sector, the technology sector ETF had a scale of 245.5 billion yuan, and the consumer sector ETF had a scale of 142.9 billion yuan. By theme, chip, pharmaceutical, and securities ETFs had the highest scales [20][26]. - Last week, equity ETFs had a net redemption of 15.863 billion yuan, and the overall scale increased by 72.659 billion yuan; money - market ETFs had a net redemption of 12.584 billion yuan, and the overall scale decreased by 12.570 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, A500ETF had the largest net subscription of 7.703 billion yuan, and CSI 300ETF had the largest net redemption of 6.480 billion yuan. By sector, consumer ETFs had the largest net subscription of 1.839 billion yuan, and technology ETFs had the largest net redemption of 2.224 billion yuan. By theme, bank ETFs had the largest net subscription of 3.078 billion yuan, and securities ETFs had the largest net redemption of 5.081 billion yuan [29][31]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext - related, and A500ETF were at the 76.26%, 66.69%, 85.16%, 72.05%, 37.51%, and 98.40% quantiles respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 38.83%, 40.31%, 67.93%, 32.23%, 26.96%, and 76.40% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of CSI 500, CSI 1000, and A500ETF increased significantly [33][37]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of cyclical, large - finance, consumer, and technology sector ETFs were at the 47.65%, 45.42%, 2.89%, and 52.76% quantiles respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 35.61%, 50.04%, 20.28%, and 49.88% quantiles respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of technology and cyclical ETFs increased significantly [38]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings quantiles of dividend, bank, and military ETFs were relatively high. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of securities, chip, and AI ETFs increased significantly. Overall, among broad - based ETFs, ChiNext - related ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles; by sector, consumer ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; by sub - theme, wine and photovoltaic ETFs had relatively low valuation quantiles [40][41]. ETF Margin Trading - As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of equity ETFs increased from 40.772 billion yuan in the previous week to 41.052 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.086 billion shares in the previous week to 2.084 billion shares. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchases, STAR Market ETFs and chip ETFs had relatively high average daily margin trading purchases. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily short - selling volumes, A500ETF and CSI 300ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [44][50]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non - money ETFs, followed by E Fund and Huatai - PineBridge Fund. Last week, 4 new ETFs were established, and this week, 8 ETFs will be issued [51][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The human-shaped robot sector is experiencing significant investment and development, with key players focusing on various components such as joint modules, dexterous hands, and sensors [3][4] - AI infrastructure is expected to see continued growth in capital expenditure driven by demand for data centers, benefiting companies involved in gas turbines and chillers [3] - The low-altitude economy is rapidly advancing, with initiatives to standardize air traffic management and promote core components like engines and motors [4] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - On June 23, Galaxy General completed a financing round of 1.1 billion RMB [16] - The Nanjing government is reviewing a development plan for the humanoid robot industry from 2025 to 2027 [22][23] - Guangzhou aims for over 90% of new cars to be L2 or higher level intelligent connected vehicles by 2027 [24] Company Dynamics - On June 27, Yuejiang launched a new high-load collaborative robot CR30H with a joint speed of 300°/s [29][30] - On June 26, Leisai Intelligent unveiled a "20-degree of freedom" dexterous hand solution [31] - On June 26, Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing held a strategic release event showcasing its robot industry strategy [28] Key Companies and Investment Outlook - Focus on companies with strong positions in the humanoid robot supply chain, including joint module suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic and Huichuan Technology [3] - AI infrastructure investments are expected to benefit companies such as Hanzhong Precision and Ice Wheel Environment [3] - The report highlights key companies with favorable earnings forecasts, including Green's Harmonic and Mingzhi Electric, both rated as "Outperform" [9][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet sector [5][4][40]. Core Insights - The media sector has shown a positive performance with a 3.21% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index but underperforming the ChiNext index [12][4]. - The issuance of gaming licenses reached a new high in June, with 147 domestic and 11 imported licenses granted [16][2]. - Key developments include ByteDance's launch of the ProtoReasoning framework to enhance reasoning capabilities in large language models, and Xiaomi's introduction of AI glasses priced from 1999 yuan [2][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media sector increased by 3.21% from June 23 to June 27, outperforming the CSI 300 index (1.95%) but underperforming the ChiNext index (5.69%) [12][4]. - Notable gainers included Huayi Brothers and Iceberg Network, while significant losers included Lianjian Optoelectronics and Perfect World [12][4]. Key Developments - The number of gaming licenses issued in June reached a record high, with 147 domestic and 11 imported licenses [16][2]. - ByteDance and Shanghai Jiao Tong University launched the ProtoReasoning framework to improve cross-domain reasoning in AI [2][17]. - Xiaomi announced its AI glasses, featuring first-person shooting and voice assistant capabilities, weighing only 40g and starting at 1999 yuan [2][18]. - OpenAI's upcoming developer conference is scheduled for October 6, 2025, in San Francisco, expected to attract over 1500 developers [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive short-term performance outlook, with a focus on AI applications and IP trends in the medium to long term [4][40]. - It highlights potential investment opportunities in gaming, advertising media, and film sectors, recommending specific companies such as Kaiying Network and Mango Super Media [4][41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of capitalizing on the improving fundamentals in the media sector, particularly in advertising and content production [4][41].

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月30日 相关研究报告 宏观经济专题研究 去美元化下的央行购金行为研究 去美元化下的储备资产重分配。（1）GDP 与货币国际地位的关联及例外 情况。理论上，各国 GDP 份额与外汇交易份额应呈相关性。但中国和美 国是明显例外，中国 GDP 占比 16.67%，外汇储备占比仅 2.29%；美国 GDP 占比 26.10%，外汇储备占比却达 58.42%，两国货币化水平均大幅偏离 经济地位。（2）金价与美元储备地位的关系。中长期看，金价与美元 储备地位高度相关，美元储备占比上升时金价往往下降，反之则上涨。 （3）央行购金行为的趋势。2022 年以来，各国央行黄金需求大增， 2011-2021 年央行年均黄金需求 509.1 吨，2022-2024 年平均达 1072.3 吨。2024 年各国央行持有的黄金储备接近布雷顿森林体系时代水平，按 市场价格计算，黄金成为全球第二大储备资产，仅次于美元。买入黄金 的央行主要是波兰、土耳其、印度和中国等新兴国家央行，2022 年后新 兴国家央行大幅增持黄金。 如何观测央行购金行为。（1）官方黄金储备数据的局限性。人民银行官 方黄金储备数据存在延 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the food and beverage sector [4][5][73]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector has shown a slight increase of 0.02% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.89 percentage points [21]. - The report highlights that the price of Feitian Moutai has shown signs of stabilization, while the fundamentals of the liquor industry may accelerate to a bottom [2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new channels and products in the consumer goods sector, particularly as beer and beverage consumption enters a peak season [3][14]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on demand, with the white liquor index down by 1.7% this week. The report anticipates a subdued performance in the second quarter [2][13]. - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies with strong risk resistance such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as companies like Luzhou Laojiao that are showing signs of valuation recovery [2][13]. Consumer Goods - The beer sector is benefiting from warmer weather, which is expected to boost consumption. The report suggests monitoring alpha-type stocks like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer for potential investment opportunities [14][15]. - The snack food sector is undergoing a trend of differentiation, with recommendations for companies that are innovating in new products and channels, such as Weilong and Yanjinpuzi [16]. - In the seasoning industry, the report notes resilience in basic seasoning leaders and suggests focusing on policy developments that could impact the sector [17]. Frozen Food - The frozen food sector is stable during the off-season, with companies actively developing new products. The report highlights the upcoming IPO of Anjins Food as a significant event [18]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with potential policy catalysts aiding in supply-demand improvements by 2025 [19][20]. Beverage Sector - The beverage industry is entering a peak season, with leading companies expected to maintain positive growth. The report recommends focusing on companies like Dongpeng Beverage that are accelerating national and platform expansion [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The offshore wind power projects in Zhejiang province are accelerating, with 13GW of projects' products and services being opened for bidding [1] - Six regions have released new mechanism electricity price policies, indicating a higher proportion of market-oriented transactions; no new mechanism electricity projects are planned for Inner Mongolia East and West [1] - Huadian New Energy plans to raise 18 billion RMB through an IPO, targeting investments in 11.3GW of photovoltaic and 3.9GW of wind power [1] - The national plan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period includes 253GW of photovoltaic projects for desertification control [1] - Powin, a leading U.S. energy storage integrator, has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection [1][5] Summary by Sections Offshore Wind Power - Zhejiang's deep-sea development is accelerating, with multiple offshore wind farm projects announced, including a 5000MW project and others totaling 4000MW and 2000MW [2] Photovoltaic - Six regions have issued new mechanism electricity price policies, significantly increasing the market-oriented transaction ratio and raising revenue uncertainty [3] - Huadian New Energy's IPO aims to raise 18 billion RMB for various projects, including 8.5GW of centralized photovoltaic and 3.88GW of wind power [3] National Planning - The national plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan period includes a target of 253GW of photovoltaic installations to combat desertification by 2030 [4] Energy Storage - Powin, a major player in the U.S. energy storage market, has filed for bankruptcy, affecting several Chinese companies that are among its largest unsecured creditors [5] Company Profit Forecasts - Key companies' profit forecasts indicate varying growth, with Daikin Heavy Industries projected to achieve a net profit of 4.7 billion RMB in 2024, while Dongfang Cable is expected to reach 10.1 billion RMB [7]

Industry Overview - The real estate industry is experiencing a continuous downturn in fundamentals, with sales volume declining further in May compared to April. The year-on-year price decline for new and second-hand homes in 70 cities has narrowed, but the month-on-month decline has expanded [1][10] - In June, the cumulative transaction volume of new residential properties in 30 cities was 42.43 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw year-on-year increases of 2%, 5%, 15%, and 27% respectively [1][10] - The transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in 18 cities also saw a slight year-on-year decline, with a cumulative total of 410,000 units sold in June, reflecting a 17% increase year-on-year in major cities like Beijing and Shenzhen [1][16] Price Trends - As of June 2025, the month-on-month price changes for second-hand homes were -1.1% for first-tier cities, -1.2% for strong second-tier cities, -1.3% for weak second-tier cities, and -0.8% for third-tier cities. The price decline in first-tier cities has accelerated to levels comparable to August of the previous year [2][23] Market Performance - The real estate sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.0 percentage points in the current month. Since the last strategy report, the sector has risen by 1.2%, ranking 19th among 31 industries. The dynamic PE ratio for the sector is projected to be 62.6 times for 2025 [2][28] Investment Strategy - The report indicates that the real estate sector's fundamentals remain weak, with the market sentiment returning to levels seen in August of the previous year. Given the low market sentiment, macroeconomic pressures, and expectations of a US dollar interest rate cut, there is potential for policy support, creating a window for speculation in real estate stocks. Recommended stocks for July include China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, China Jinmao, Beike-W, and Wo Ai Wo Jia [2][34]

去美元化下的储备资产重分配。（1）GDP 与货币国际地位的关联及例外 情况。理论上，各国 GDP 份额与外汇交易份额应呈相关性。但中国和美 国是明显例外，中国 GDP 占比 16.67%，外汇储备占比仅 2.29%；美国 GDP 占比 26.10%，外汇储备占比却达 58.42%，两国货币化水平均大幅偏离 经济地位。（2）金价与美元储备地位的关系。中长期看，金价与美元 储备地位高度相关，美元储备占比上升时金价往往下降，反之则上涨。 （3）央行购金行为的趋势。2022 年以来，各国央行黄金需求大增， 2011-2021 年央行年均黄金需求 509.1 吨，2022-2024 年平均达 1072.3 吨。2024 年各国央行持有的黄金储备接近布雷顿森林体系时代水平，按 市场价格计算，黄金成为全球第二大储备资产，仅次于美元。买入黄金 的央行主要是波兰、土耳其、印度和中国等新兴国家央行，2022 年后新 兴国家央行大幅增持黄金。 如何观测央行购金行为。（1）官方黄金储备数据的局限性。人民银行官 方黄金储备数据存在延迟，如 2022 年 5-10 月英国对华黄金出口逐步放 量至 7.34 万千克，但中国人民银行公布的官 ...