[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 27 Jun 2025 电子 Technology HDC2025（1）破局与重构：HarmonyOS 6 的技术突围与生态进化 Breakthrough and Reconfiguration: HarmonyOS 6's Technological Breakout and Ecosystem Evolution 姚书桥 Barney Yao 吴叡霖 Louis Ng barney.sq.yao@htisec.com louis.yl.ng@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 事件 2025 年 6 月 20 日，华为在东莞举行的 HDC 2025 开发者大会上正式发布 HarmonyOS 6 开发者测试版，重点聚焦 AI 能 力升级与生态扩展，推出包括毫秒级低延迟交互技术、鸿蒙智能体框架（HMAF）以及"碰一碰分享"等创新互联功 能。为强化开发者支持，华为同步启 ...

研究报告 Research Report 26 Jun 2025 西锐 Cirrus Aircraft (2507 HK) 首次覆盖: 全球领先的私航飞机制造商与航空安全技术革新先锋 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus Global Leader in Private Aviation Manufacturing and Safety Innovation: Initiation [Table_Info] 首次覆盖优于大市 Initiate with OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$40.15 目标价 HK$60.00 HTI ESG 2.6-3.3-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$14.69bn / US$1.87bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$22.44mn 发行股票数目 365.99mn 自由流通股 (%) 15% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$45.01-HK$17.46 注：现价 HK$40.15 为 2025 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 26 Jun 2025 New Industrials 天然气市场呈现区域分化格局，欧洲气价强势上涨而亚洲维持小幅震荡 Natural gas prices diverge regionally: Europe sees strong gains while Asia remains range-bound 杨斌 Bin Yang 杨钰其 Yuqi Yang 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao bin.yang@htisec.com yq.yang@htisec.com olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 核心观点： 1）全球基建和建筑装备：数据中心：OpenAI 与微软重谈合作关系，Altman 称双方仍高度互利。能源建设：美国： FERC 引入管理美国输电系统容量的新方法；NERC 承认低估了 MISO 区域的资源充足性。欧洲：芬兰数据中心配 ...

Group 1 - The capacity and inventory cycles are expected to bottom out and recover, enhancing the momentum of enterprise profit recovery [1][6][53] - The current capacity cycle has been in a downward trend since the second half of 2021 and is nearing its end, while the inventory cycle is also expected to transition from a bottoming phase to a replenishment phase within the year [1][2][11] - The recovery of the capacity cycle is typically driven by strong fiscal support policies, as seen in previous cycles [8][14] Group 2 - The downstream capacity cycle is approaching a turning point, with upstream capacity utilization still declining and the mining industry requiring more time for capacity reduction [2][15] - The inventory cycle shows significant differentiation across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, primarily due to varying demand improvements [2][15] - Demand improvements are concentrated in sectors with strong policy support, emerging industries, and export-oriented industries, while traditional sectors like real estate remain weak [15][16] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector is currently in a dual bottom phase for both capacity and inventory cycles, with the manufacturing capital expenditure declining significantly since its peak in 2021 [14][40] - The industrial sector is experiencing a passive destocking phase, with inventory levels expected to gradually recover as revenue growth improves [14][17] - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, driven by policy support and increased consumer demand for electronics and vehicles [30][37] Group 4 - The downstream consumer manufacturing sector is also in a destocking phase, with revenue growth rebounding since the beginning of 2024 [40][48] - Specific industries within the downstream sector, such as agricultural and food processing, are entering active replenishment phases, indicating a positive outlook for inventory levels [48][49] - The overall economic recovery will depend on the strength of consumer and investment demand, which will gradually transmit to the production side [53]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company [4][19]. Core Insights - The company, Multi-Point Intelligence, is a leader in retail digitalization, driven by its core operating system and AIoT solutions, which are opening new market opportunities globally [1][4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 22.37 billion, RMB 26.35 billion, and RMB 30.25 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.3%, 17.8%, and 14.8% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 1.01 billion, RMB 1.99 billion, and RMB 3.14 billion, with growth rates of 104.6%, 96.4%, and 58.0% respectively [4][8][19]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a strong growth trajectory, with operating income expected to rise from RMB 18.59 billion in 2024 to RMB 30.25 billion by 2027, alongside a significant recovery in net profit from a loss of RMB 2.195 billion in 2024 to a profit of RMB 314 million by 2027 [3][8][10]. - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to improve from 40.34% in 2025 to 42.30% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3][10]. Business Model and Strategy - Multi-Point Intelligence focuses on two main business segments: the retail operating system (Dmall OS) and AIoT solutions, which are essential for the digital transformation of retail [20][29]. - The Dmall OS system is designed to enhance store operations, financial integration, and human resource management, with a strong emphasis on high-frequency, essential modules that exhibit SaaS characteristics [8][29]. - The AIoT solutions are positioned as a key driver for intelligent upgrades in retail scenarios, integrating AI agents and IoT devices to improve efficiency and reduce costs [9][31]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The retail digitalization market in Asia is projected to reach RMB 94.7 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.5% from 2024 to 2029, indicating significant growth potential for the company [4][8]. - The company has expanded its international presence, serving clients in 10 countries and regions, with overseas revenue reaching RMB 1.58 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27.9% [41][42]. Customer Base and Retention - As of 2024, the company serves 591 clients, with a notable retention rate of 114%, showcasing strong customer loyalty and the effectiveness of its solutions [37][41]. - Key clients include major retail players such as Metro AG and 7-Eleven, which enhances the company's credibility and market penetration [37][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 46.70 [5][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve EPS of RMB 0.72, RMB 0.90, and RMB 1.14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [5][11]. - The report highlights the company's strong AI integration capabilities and its recent breakthroughs in AI solutions, which are expected to enhance its operational efficiency and market position [12][13][14]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 2,658 million, with a growth rate of 14.0% compared to 2024 [3][7]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach RMB 195 million in 2025, representing a 25.3% increase from 2024 [3][6]. - The projected PE ratio for 2025 is 44.57, with a valuation premium applied due to the company's strong market position [5][11]. Revenue Breakdown - The company's total revenue is expected to grow from RMB 2,331 million in 2024 to RMB 2,658 million in 2025, with a gross margin improvement from 58% to 61% [7]. - The technical services segment is projected to generate RMB 1,258.50 million in revenue for 2025, with a gross margin of 55% [7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to create an AI+ era through its innovative framework of "one model, two cores, three intelligent agents," which integrates physical and digital worlds [12][14]. - Collaborations with partners like Huawei Cloud are emphasized as crucial for building an inclusive AI service ecosystem, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the digital economy [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a full-year performance guidance with expectations for flat profit and cautious gross margin, while net profit margin is expected to improve year-on-year due to optimized expense ratios [3][10]. Core Viewpoints - The overall sales revenue for retail and wholesale operations in 1Q FY25 declined by a mid-single-digit percentage year-over-year, aligning with the company's progress plan amid a stable consumer environment [2][8]. - Direct-to-consumer online sales accounted for 40% of total direct sales in 1Q FY25, up from 30-40% for the full year last year, indicating a strategic shift towards online channels [2][10]. - The company is focusing on improving online efficiency and optimizing inventory management, with a cautious approach to discounting and inventory control [2][10][12]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Total sales revenue (pre-tax) for retail and wholesale operations in 1Q FY25 saw a mid-single-digit percentage decline year-over-year, attributed to a high base from the previous year [2][8]. - Offline foot traffic remained weak, with same-store foot traffic declining by double digits, while direct-to-consumer online sales grew significantly [2][8]. Promotional Activities - The promotional atmosphere during the 618 shopping festival was strong, with the company effectively managing multiple small peaks, resulting in profits meeting expectations [3][9]. - Consumer behavior showed rational decision-making, with increased acceptance of new products and a willingness to pay for quality [3][9]. Operational Strategy - The company continues to optimize its channel area, with a 1.3% quarter-on-quarter decrease in gross sales area of directly operated stores, a slower pace than the previous quarter [4][11]. - Collaborative brands are expected to see improved order volumes, with proactive adjustments in product offerings and a focus on high-quality items [12][13]. Brand Partnerships - The company adheres to an exclusive partnership model in China, recently announcing exclusive agency rights for several brands, including high-end outdoor and running brands [5][13]. - The introduction of new brands is aimed at enhancing consumer engagement and expanding market reach, particularly in the outdoor and running segments [5][13].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Jun 2025 New Industria 高利率成本加重美国基础设施建设负担。美国发电及输配电建设项目的融资渠道包括联邦项目（通过 IRA 和 IIJA，每 个项目 20-30 亿美元）、公用事业费率支付者模式（仅输电项目每年就达 400 亿美元）、私人投资（公私合作项目、 ITP 等）以及州政府主导的资金支持。联邦政府的资金支持在建设中至关重要，但仍然需要私人资本和州政府作为补 充，在建设过程中，许可延迟和成本分摊纠纷等事件都会影响建设进度，如冗长的审批流程（7-12 年）导致资金锁 定期延长，增加了融资成本，利率走低可缓解政府支出及项目融资的压力，利于加快项目的建设。 数据中心建设支出中融资比例较高，降息有利于项目加快落地。美国超大规模 AI 数据中心项目带动大量资本需求， 数据中心开发融资通常涉及覆盖项目成本 65%-80%的贷款，资金来源主要包括主流贷款机构、房地产投资银行、私 募信贷基金以及专注于基础设施的贷款机构等，常见融资利率区间因贷款机构类型和融资结构而异，项目融资一般 约为基准利率加上 3.25%-3.50%利差 ...

东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚指数双周报第 1 期：普遍承压，越南回暖 Southeast Asia Index Tracking: Generally Under Pressure, Vietnam Rebounds 胡佳璐 Rebecca Hu 宋琦 Qi Song 刘坤钰 Kunyu Liu 汪立亭 Liting Wang rebecca.jl.hu@htisec.com q.song@htisec.com ky.liu@htisec.com liting.wang@htisec.com [Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 25 Jun 2025 风险提示：宏观经济下行风险、地缘政治风险。 [Table_yejiao1] 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国 际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证 券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 24 Jun 2025 东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚见闻之越南：消费出海正当时 Vietnam Tracking：Consumer Expansion to Vietnam is Timely 经济高速增长。当前越南政府将经济发展放在中心位置；加之，越南具有丰富资源、人口红利以及地理优势等， 越南经济进入高速发展阶段。外资和外贸的发展推动了越南经济的不断抬升，尤其是 2018 年中美贸易摩擦后，越 南得到进一步发展。 制造机遇在升级。中资制造在越南的布局，经历了纺织服装、太阳能光伏、家电、消费电子、新能源汽车等的出 海历程。当前越南制造业正处于不断升级的发展阶段，而中资制造的综合优势依然较为显著未来的发展前景依然 可观。 rebecca.jl.hu@htisec.com q.song@htisec.com liting.wang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please ...