[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 24 Jun 2025 日本必需消费可选消费 Japan Staples Discretionary 日本消费行业 5 月跟踪报告：国内需求企稳，免税销售承压 Domestic demand stabilizes while duty-free sales face pressure | 芮雯 Raven Rui | 闻宏伟 Hongwei Wen | Qiao Xu | 季屏子 Pingzi Ji | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | raven.w.rui@htisec.com | hongwei.wen@htisec.com | qiao.xu@htisec.com | pz.ji@htisec.com | [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 宏观：消费者信心指数回升，核心 CPI 加速上行。5 月日本消费者信心指数从 4 月的两年低点 31.2 回升至 32.8，环 比上升 1.6。3 月实际工资同比下降 1.8%，连续四个月下 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the packaged food industry, particularly in the pet sector. Core Insights - The pet industry showed strong growth during the 618 shopping festival in 2025, with Tmall dominating the market with a share of 67%, significantly higher than its competitors [1][4][18]. - Domestic brands like Rosy Fresh, Myfoodie, and Legendsandy have emerged strongly, disrupting the traditional dominance of imported brands in the pet food market [20][22][26]. - The competition among brands is intense, with significant shifts in rankings year over year, indicating a dynamic market environment [23]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the 618 shopping festival, Tmall's pet live turnover increased by nearly 180% year-on-year, while JD Supermarket reported a 32% increase in pet user transactions [1][18]. - Over 1,000 new brands participated in the 618 event, showcasing the growing interest and competition in the pet food sector [1][18]. Brand Analysis - Tmall's rankings featured a balanced mix of traditional high-end foreign brands and emerging domestic brands, with Rosy Fresh securing the top position [2][19]. - JD's cat food rankings indicated a trend towards premiumization, while its dog food rankings reflected a blend of cost-effectiveness and premium options [2][19]. - The report highlighted the impressive growth of new domestic brands, with 371 brands on Tmall achieving triple-digit growth, including MEATYWAY and Toptrees [21][22]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by a shift from a single-brand dominance to a multi-brand ecosystem, with domestic brands innovating and adapting to new marketing channels [26]. - Royal Canin maintained a strong presence in the market, particularly in JD's rankings, but faced increasing competition from domestic brands [25][26]. - The report emphasizes the need for traditional brands to adapt to changing consumer preferences and digital marketing trends to maintain their market positions [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains the full-year performance guidance unchanged for Giant Biogene, indicating confidence in the company's ability to recover revenue growth in the latter half of the year [10][11]. Core Insights - The recombinant collagen industry is in its early development stage, lacking unified testing and quality standards, which affects the accuracy of testing results [2][7]. - The company experienced a controllable impact on its online business during the 618 sales period, with sales of its Comfy brand ranking second in Tmall's domestic beauty products [8]. - The offline business remained stable, with strong performance in hospitals and pharmacies, unaffected by recent public opinion events [9]. - The company plans to enhance brand communication and consumer trust through various initiatives, including transparent communication and collaboration with research institutions [12]. - Future online marketing strategies will focus on "people, goods, and places," aiming to improve customer engagement and brand exposure [13]. Summary by Sections Business Update - The company discussed recent public opinion events and their impact on operations during the June 24, 2025, meeting [6]. - The online sales of Comfy were initially affected by a public opinion event but returned to normal levels shortly after [8]. - Offline sales of major medical device products remained strong, supporting stable business development [9]. Financial Performance - The profit margin in the first half of 2025 was not adversely affected by public opinion events, with a positive impact from the increase in offline business proportion [11]. - The company is confident in recovering revenue growth in the third and fourth quarters through refined operations and continuous investment [10]. Future Strategies - The company aims to strengthen brand and consumer communication to enhance trust and loyalty [12]. - Marketing efforts will include differentiated offerings for new and existing customers, leveraging the professionalism of medical devices [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Ascentage Pharma with a target price of HKD 84.60, up from a previous target of HKD 53.10 [2][30]. Core Insights - Lisaftoclax has demonstrated potential to overcome resistance to venetoclax in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), showcasing promising efficacy and safety data [7][23]. - The report highlights the significant clinical data presented at the ASCO 2025 meeting, marking the first international study demonstrating a novel Bcl-2 inhibitor overcoming venetoclax resistance [23][26]. - The company is actively progressing in global registration studies for high-risk MDS and first-line AML, enhancing the potential for out-licensing opportunities [26][30]. Financial Summary - The company's market capitalization is HKD 25.19 billion (USD 3.21 billion) with a current share price of HKD 72.30 [2]. - Revenue projections for FY25-27 are RMB 570 million, RMB 2.99 billion, and RMB 2.80 billion, respectively, with net profit estimates of RMB -840 million, RMB 1.25 billion, and RMB 910 million [29][30]. - The gross profit margin is expected to remain high, with estimates of 90.1% in FY25 and 98.1% in FY26 [14]. Clinical Data Highlights - In a study of 28 relapsed/refractory AML patients with prior venetoclax resistance, the overall response rate (ORR) was 31.8%, with 22.8% achieving complete remission [4][17]. - For newly diagnosed AML patients, the ORR was 83.3%, with 33.3% achieving complete remission [18]. - In MDS/CMML patients, the ORR was 80% for treatment-naïve patients and 50% for relapsed/refractory patients, indicating strong efficacy [19][25]. Valuation - The report utilizes a risk-adjusted discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 3.5%, leading to a revised target price of HKD 84.60 per share [30].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or company involved Core Insights - JD.com has launched the "JD Hotel PLUS Membership Program," entering the hotel and travel sector with a zero-commission model for up to three years, aiming to drive traffic through multiple channels [1][7] - The strategy focuses on supply chain integration to reduce procurement costs for small and medium-sized hotels, addressing inefficiencies in traditional procurement practices [2][8] - JD's zero-commission policy directly challenges existing OTA platforms that charge 15-30% commissions, significantly easing cash flow burdens for merchants [3][9] - Positive market feedback has been observed from regional hotel chains and mid-sized operators, particularly in lower-tier markets [4][10] - JD aims to create an integrated consumption loop by linking food, lodging, and transportation, leveraging its existing high-frequency service infrastructure [3][11] - The company targets high-value travel segments through its PLUS membership and enterprise client resources, potentially enhancing overall profitability metrics [4][12] - Despite its differentiated approach, JD faces challenges in consumer perception and operational execution in the travel booking space [3][13] Summary by Sections Event Overview - JD.com officially launched its hotel and travel program in June 2025, offering zero commission for participating hotels and emphasizing supply chain integration [1][7] Strategic Approach - The company aims to reshape the operational structure of small hotels by reducing non-rental costs, which can account for up to 60% of total operating expenses [2][8] - The zero-commission strategy is designed to attract merchants and disrupt existing commission structures in the OTA market [3][9] Market Response - Initial feedback from regional hotel chains has been positive, especially in markets where JD's high-value user base can be leveraged [4][10] Ecosystem Synergy - JD is integrating various services to create a seamless consumer experience, potentially increasing user engagement and repurchase rates [3][11] - The strategy overlaps with existing corporate travel offerings, aiming to enhance overall customer lifetime value [4][12] Challenges Ahead - JD must overcome consumer perception issues and build operational capabilities in areas where traditional OTAs have established advantages [3][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 5% to 12% year-on-year in FY25, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth, emphasizing a dynamic balance between profit and operational quality [3][12]. - The high-end strategy has shown significant results, with the Guoyuan special A+ products accounting for 64.9% of total revenue in FY24 and a gross profit margin of 82.7%, which is substantially higher than the overall gross profit margin of 74.7% [4][13]. - The company has a clear target for FY25, aiming for revenue of RMB 12.5 billion, net profit of RMB 3.6 billion, and an EPS of RMB 2.9, with a projected target price of RMB 52 based on an 18x PE ratio [5][15]. Financial Performance - The company has maintained over 20% growth in revenue and net profit for three consecutive years from FY21 to FY23, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth, indicating improved profitability [3][12]. - For FY24, the company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 11.5 billion and a net profit of RMB 3.4 billion, with a diluted EPS of RMB 2.74 [10]. - The company has a dividend yield of 3.1% for FY24, marking a record high with eight consecutive years of cash dividends [5][15]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on core segments with tailored strategies for different provinces, aiming for synergistic growth across six regions in FY24 and targeting key markets in Anhui and Shandong for expansion in FY25 [4][14]. - The company has optimized its expense ratios significantly, with reductions in sales, management, and period expense ratios year-on-year [4][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company has successfully achieved an IPO on the Hong Kong stock market, raising HKD 9.177 billion to expand production capacity in refrigeration and automotive sectors, and to develop electromechanical actuators for bionic robotics [3][9]. - The company has shown excellent growth in both refrigeration and automotive sectors, with a revenue of RMB 16.56 billion in the refrigeration sector (YoY +13.1%) and RMB 11.39 billion in the automotive sector (YoY +14.9%) for 2024 [4][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from Chinese appliance renewal policies in 2025, with a strong order backlog in the automotive sector [4][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 31.65 billion in 2025, RMB 36.28 billion in 2026, and RMB 41.65 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 13%, 15%, and 15% respectively [2][4]. - Net profit is projected to be RMB 3.73 billion in 2025, RMB 4.34 billion in 2026, and RMB 5.07 billion in 2027, with growth rates of 20%, 17%, and 17% respectively [2][4]. - The diluted EPS is expected to increase from RMB 0.90 in 2025 to RMB 1.22 in 2027 [2][4]. Valuation - The company is assigned a target price of RMB 28.80 based on a 32x PE valuation for 2025, reflecting its growth potential in both existing and new markets [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for several companies including Jiangsu Heng Rui Medicine, Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical, Huadong Medicine, and Changchun High-tech Industry [5][6][24]. Core Viewpoints - Continuous recommendation of innovative drugs and devices, with high growth potential in innovative pharmaceuticals [5][24]. - The National Medical Products Administration has introduced policies to support the innovation of high-end medical devices, which is expected to drive significant innovation in the sector [25]. - The A-share pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline in the third week of June 2025, with the SW pharmaceutical and biological sector falling by 4.4% [8][26]. Summary by Sections Continuous Recommendation of Innovative Drugs and Devices - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in innovative drugs and maintains an "Outperform" rating for key companies [5][6][24]. - Specific companies recommended include: - Jiangsu Heng Rui Medicine - Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical - Huadong Medicine - Changchun High-tech Industry - Biopharma/Biotech companies like Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and Remegen [5][6][24]. A-share Pharmaceutical Sector Adjustment - In the third week of June 2025, the A-share pharmaceutical sector saw a decline, with the SHCOMP down 0.5% and the SW pharmaceutical sector down 4.4% [8][26]. - The report highlights that the relative premium rate of the pharmaceutical sector compared to all A-shares is at a normal level of 79.69% as of June 20, 2025 [18][26]. Hong Kong and U.S. Pharmaceutical Sector Adjustment - The report notes adjustments in the Hong Kong and U.S. pharmaceutical sectors during the same period, with the Hang Seng Healthcare index falling by 7.7% and the S&P 500 healthcare sector down by 2.7% [19][27].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The power sector is experiencing low attention, with thermal power growth turning positive in May, indicating a potential for long-term opportunities [1][4] - The report highlights that the thermal power sector is expected to maintain high growth rates despite low valuations, suggesting that it remains promising even if short-term declines occur due to coal price rebounds [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The power sector has seen adjustments recently, with specific companies showing varied performance: Huaneng Power International +1.1%, Huadian Power International -2.9%, China Yangtze Power -0.7%, and China Longyuan Power Group H -0.9% during the week of June 16-20 [4] - The electricity price in Jiangsu for June was set at 313 RMB/MWh, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 23.7% [4] Power Generation Data - In May, the national industrial power generation was 737.8 billion kWh, a year-over-year increase of 0.5%, while the social electricity consumption grew by 4.4% [5] - The year-over-year changes for different power sources in May were as follows: thermal power +1.2%, hydropower -14.3%, nuclear power +6.7%, wind power +11.0%, and photovoltaic +7.3% [5] Emergency Dispatch Pricing - The emergency dispatch pricing structure allocates 80% of net income to users in the exporting province and 20% to power plants, with losses borne entirely by users in the importing province [6] Regional Developments - The Xinjiang Tianshan Gobi wind and solar base, with a total capacity of 14.2 million kW, is expected to transmit 36 billion kWh annually to Chongqing, meeting nearly a quarter of its electricity demand [7] - Shandong province is promoting electric vehicle storage solutions to manage peak demand, with recent pilot programs showing significant participation and energy discharge [8]

研究报告 Research Report 23 Jun 2025 珍酒李渡 ZJLD (6979 HK) 珍酒李渡跟踪报告：立足长远，前瞻布局 Take a Long-term Perspective and Plan Ahead [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$6.16 目标价 HK$8.80 HTI ESG 0.9-1.3-3.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$20.87bn / US$2.66bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$5.85mn 发行股票数目 3,389mn 自由流通股 (%) 31% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$10.34-HK$5.71 注：现价 HK$6.16 为 2025 年 06 月 20 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 -8.7% -16.8% -23.1% 绝 ...