Global Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate is projected to slow to 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025, primarily due to rising protectionism and uncertainty[2][16]. - Global inflation is expected to decrease to 4.2% in 2025 and further to 3.7% in 2026, with significant disparities among different economies[2][17]. China Economic Forecast - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.2%, slightly above the annual target of 5%, with a forecasted growth of approximately 4.8% in 2026[3][32]. - Structural challenges persist in the Chinese economy, including an aging population and weakened consumer spending, which may hinder long-term growth[3][32]. US Economic Outlook - The US economy has maintained a strong growth rate of 2.8% over the past two years, with a projected GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026, supported by fiscal policies and AI investments[4][34]. - Inflation in the US is expected to remain above target levels, impacting monetary policy decisions[4][34]. Asset Class Performance - Emerging market investments are anticipated to improve significantly starting in 2025, while developed markets have shown steady performance due to high profitability and AI themes[5][39]. - Gold has outperformed other assets as a hedge against inflation and currency risks, while global bond returns remain under pressure due to high interest rates[5][40]. Market Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to rise to 5600 points in 2026, driven by improvements in economic fundamentals and corporate earnings[6][54]. - The Hang Seng Index is projected to reach 34,000 points, reflecting a broader market recovery and increased capital inflows[6][54].

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 7 Dec 2025 中国策略 China Strategy 政策窗口临近，市场反弹动能有望延续 Policy Window Approaching, Market Rebound Momentum Likely to Continue 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为市场整固后有望延续反弹，科技修复仍有空间。本周港股与 A 股市场缩量震荡后于周五拉升，市场开 始关注中国政策窗口；有色金属受国际金属价格大涨带动表现最强，科技中以算力为代表的相关个股也表现相对 活跃。 下周市场将面临三大关键事件：政治局会议、中央经济工作会议以及美联储议息会议，市场波动可能加大。周五 市场已开始提前交易政治局会议释放宽松货币政策与积极财政政策信号的预期。同时，市场对政策支持长期资金 入市的预期进一步升温，周五金管总局正式下 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the new industrial sector, particularly focusing on data centers and energy infrastructure, driven by the increasing demand for AI and cloud services. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in data center capacity in Europe, expected to double due to rising demand from new cloud services. In the U.S., residential electricity prices rose by 7.4% year-on-year in September, indicating a tightening energy market [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the need for regulatory clarity from FERC regarding the connection of large data centers to the grid, stressing that they should only connect when grid reliability is assured [1][3]. - The U.S. energy market is experiencing a shift, with a notable increase in electricity demand driven by industrial returns, AI data center construction, and decarbonization efforts [5][9]. Summary by Sections Global Infrastructure and Construction Equipment - Data center vacancy rates in North America have reached a historic low of 1.6%, with significant price increases for data center cabinets due to high demand and limited power supply [8]. - The U.S. Department of Energy is pushing for the construction of data centers on federal land as part of its AI strategy, which includes significant investments in energy infrastructure [9][10]. Global Electrical and Intelligent Equipment - The gas turbine price index in the U.S. increased by 5.49% year-on-year and 2.1% month-on-month as of September 2025, reflecting strong demand in the energy sector [15][17]. - The report notes that the U.S. electricity demand is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating an increase of 15.8% by 2029 [23][27]. Global Energy Industry - The wholesale electricity prices in the U.S. have shown significant fluctuations, with the average retail electricity price reaching 14.23 cents/kWh, a 7% increase year-on-year [3][29]. - The report indicates that the U.S. is investing heavily in transmission infrastructure, with over $50 billion approved for new transmission expansions [27][28]. Global New Materials - The report tracks the uranium spot price at $75.80 per pound, with a slight decrease of 5% month-on-month, while the long-term price remains at $86.00 per pound [4]. Key Company Insights and Comments - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in AI power operations and energy equipment, such as Entergy, Talen Energy, and Oklo, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing energy transition [5][42]. - Companies like GE Vernova and Siemens Energy are expanding their manufacturing capabilities to meet the growing demand for energy infrastructure [44][45].

黄金税收新政利好菜百投资金业务 菜百股份(605599) 菜百股份公司更新报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.04 2025-12-04 批零贸易业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 公 司 跟 踪 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持优于大市评级。预测公司 2025-2027 年营业收入分 别为 260.73/289.45/318.04 亿元，增速分别为 29%/11%/10%；预测公 司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 8.33/9.43/10.23 亿元（原 2025-26 预测为 7.25/8.15 亿元），增速分别为 16%/13%/9%。税收新政下公 司在投资金市场份额有望提升。给予公司 2025 年略高于行业平均的 18xPE（原为 2024 年 16x），目标价 19.26 元（+41%）。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 16 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ZTO Express, with a target price of 195.99 HKD based on a projected P/E of 15x for 2025 [9][10]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, ZTO Express experienced a slowdown in parcel volume growth, with revenue reaching 11.86 billion RMB, up 11.1% YoY, and total parcel volume at 9.57 billion, up 9.8% YoY. The growth deceleration is attributed to seasonal factors and price increases affecting demand for small and low-priced parcels [10][11]. - The net profit for Q3 was 2.54 billion RMB, reflecting a 6.7% YoY increase, driven by regulatory measures that boosted prices and optimized business structure, with a notable 50% YoY increase in loose parcel volume [10][11]. - Cost efficiency continues to improve, with the per parcel cost at 0.91 RMB, up 0.09 RMB YoY. The transport cost per parcel decreased by 11.5% YoY to 0.34 RMB, benefiting from economies of scale and efficient route planning [11][12]. - The market share for ZTO Express in Q3 2025 was 19.37%, showing a slight decline but still maintaining its leadership position in the industry. Regulatory measures are expected to shift competition towards quality, benefiting established players [12]. Financial Summary - Projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 9.57 billion, 10.63 billion, and 11.93 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 11.89, 13.22, and 14.83 RMB [9][10]. - Revenue forecasts for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 38.42 billion, 44.28 billion, 47.11 billion, 51.69 billion, and 57.71 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9%, 15%, 6%, 10%, and 12% [4][5]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 14.96, 13.82, 12.51, 11.26, and 10.03, indicating a downward trend as earnings are expected to grow [4][5].

Investment Focus - The report highlights a favorable market style for essential consumer goods in China, with several companies rated as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Industry Overview - In November 2025, four out of eight tracked essential consumer sectors showed positive growth, including condiments, frozen foods, soft drinks, and dining, while four sectors, such as high-end and below-average baijiu, dairy products, and beer, experienced negative growth [3][8]. - The overall growth rate across all sectors has weakened compared to the previous month, attributed to macroeconomic conditions, structural industry conflicts, and seasonal factors [3][8]. Price Trends - In November, wholesale prices for most baijiu brands declined, with Guizhou Moutai's prices dropping by 110 to 90 yuan compared to the previous month [4][20]. - The average price for Wuliangye remained stable, while the market for high-end baijiu showed a decline in both volume and price [9][10]. Cost Analysis - The cost index for six categories of consumer goods mostly increased in November, with soft drinks and dairy products rising by 2.50% and 0.74%, respectively [4][48]. - The prices of raw materials such as paper and plastic have shown significant year-on-year changes, with paper prices increasing by 17.5% [4]. Fund Flow - As of the end of November, net inflows into Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 111.58 billion yuan, with the essential consumer sector's market capitalization share increasing by 0.32 percentage points [5]. Valuation Metrics - By the end of November, the PE historical percentile for A-share food and beverage was at 21%, with the beer sector at a low of 1% [5]. - The median valuation for leading A-share food and beverage companies remained stable at 22x, while H-share essential consumer sector PE historical percentile was at 24% [5]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks as a long-term strategy, particularly in the dairy sector, which is expected to recover first, and regional leaders in the baijiu market [6].

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Outperform" rating for leading pharmaceutical and biotech companies with robust pipelines, as well as high-quality CXOs and internet healthcare firms [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of innovative drug leaders such as BeiGene and Innovent Biologics, which have shown significant revenue growth in Q3 2025, with BeiGene achieving USD 1.41 billion in revenue (up 41% year-on-year) and Innovent exceeding CNY 3.3 billion (up 40% year-on-year) [39][40]. - The CXO sector experienced a pullback in November, with notable declines in stocks like WuXi AppTec and Tigermed, attributed to profit-taking after strong performance in the first three quarters of 2025 and concerns over geopolitical risks [42]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming clinical data readouts from major conferences such as ESMO Asia and ASH, which could serve as catalysts for stock performance [10]. Summary by Sections Top Picks - The report lists top picks including Hansoh Pharma, 3SBio, Kelun-Biotech, Innovent, Akeso, JD Health, and WuXi AppTec, all rated as "Outperform" [1][4][35]. Performance Overview - The Hong Kong stock picks portfolio gained an average of 5.2% in November 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Healthcare Index, which declined by 0.1% [5][36]. - The top three performers in the portfolio were Hansoh Pharma (+12.9%), BeiGene (+10.2%), and Innovent (+10.0%) [5][36]. Market Trends - The innovative drug sector has shown resilience, benefiting from previous corrections and strong earnings catalysts from leading companies [39]. - The report notes that the recent implementation of key industry policies, including the 11th National Centralized Drug Procurement, has led to significant price reductions for selected products, impacting market dynamics [38]. Clinical Developments - Significant clinical progress is noted for companies like 3SBio, which is advancing its SSGJ707 (PD-1/VEGF) with Pfizer, planning to initiate multiple clinical trials [41]. - The report also highlights the potential of innovative therapies in oncology, with companies like BeiGene and Innovent expanding their product pipelines and market presence [32][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Tourism Group Duty Free, expecting a relative return exceeding 10% over the next 12-18 months [22]. Core Insights - The company is poised for a rebound in performance due to the release of policy benefits, with Hainan's offshore duty-free shopping reaching 506 million yuan and 72,900 shoppers in the first week of the new policy, reflecting year-on-year increases of 34.86% and 3.37% respectively [2][9]. - The company plans comprehensive upgrades across various sales channels, including the Haitang Bay project, downtown duty-free stores, and airport duty-free stores, to enhance sales performance [3][10]. - The introduction of high-quality products, particularly in the gold and 3C electronics categories, is expected to drive additional sales growth, with a target of 2.5 billion yuan in sales for Apple products by 2025 [4][11]. - A growing membership base of 46 million, with a focus on high-net-worth clients and differentiated sales strategies, is anticipated to enhance customer engagement and increase average transaction values significantly [5][12]. - The company is managing capital expenditures efficiently while exploring investment and acquisition opportunities to support rapid growth [6][14]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The new offshore duty-free policy has led to a significant increase in shopping activity, validating demand resilience and setting a positive outlook for the company [2][9]. Channel Upgrades - The Haitang Bay project will be developed in three phases, focusing on one-stop shopping, taxed retail formats, and lifestyle experiences, while downtown and airport stores will leverage tax refund policies and enhance service offerings [3][10]. Product Diversification - The company is enhancing its product offerings with a focus on gold, 3C electronics, health products, and emerging categories like pet products and musical instruments, which are expected to contribute to sales growth [4][11]. Membership and Customer Engagement - The membership system is expanding rapidly, with strategies tailored for high-net-worth individuals and emerging customer bases, aiming to significantly increase transaction values and customer loyalty [5][12]. Financial Management - The company is focused on controlling capital expenditures and maintaining a strong cash flow, while actively seeking growth opportunities through strategic investments [6][14].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Southeast Asia consumer sector, with a focus on structural improvements in consumption demand and moderate inflation across the region [1][4]. Core Insights - The Southeast Asian consumer sector is experiencing a structural improvement in consumption demand, supported by moderate inflation and varying consumer confidence across different countries [1][4][22]. - Indonesia shows strong consumer confidence with a Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of 121.2, reflecting optimism in employment and income expectations [18]. - Thailand's consumer confidence has improved to 50.9, aided by government stimulus and better trade conditions, despite ongoing deflationary pressures [28][24]. - Vietnam's retail sales have shown robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% in October, indicating sustained demand expansion [41]. - Malaysia's consumer spending is recovering, with a GDP growth rate of 5.2% in Q3 2025, driven by domestic demand and investment [43]. Economic Data Summary - Indonesia's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 5.04%, supported by exports, consumption, and public spending [14]. - Thailand's GDP growth for Q3 2025 was 1.2%, primarily driven by consumption and tourism [22]. - Singapore's GDP growth reached 4.2% in Q3 2025, driven by manufacturing and services [30]. - Vietnam's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 8.23%, reflecting strong performance in industrial and service sectors [37]. - Malaysia's GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 5.2%, indicating a recovery in economic activity [43]. Inflation and Consumer Price Index (CPI) Overview - Indonesia's CPI in October 2025 increased by 2.86%, with food and beverage prices being the main contributors [15]. - Thailand's CPI decreased by 0.76% in October 2025, marking the seventh consecutive month of negative growth [24]. - Singapore's CPI rose to 1.2% in October 2025, indicating a broad-based increase in price pressures [32]. - Vietnam's CPI in October 2025 was 3.25%, reflecting moderate inflation driven by food and service costs [38]. Retail Performance Summary - Indonesia's retail index showed a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in October 2025, indicating strong consumer demand [9]. - Thailand's retail performance has been mixed, with significant fluctuations in consumer spending [12]. - Malaysia's retail sales grew by 6.5% year-on-year in October 2025, reflecting a positive trend in consumer behavior [9]. - Vietnam's retail sales for the first ten months of 2025 increased by 9.3%, showcasing robust consumer activity [41].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it indicates a positive outlook for Macau's gaming revenue growth in the coming years, suggesting a favorable investment environment. Core Insights - Macau's gaming gross revenue (GGR) for November 2025 reached MOP 21.088 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.4% and recovering to 92.2% of the 2019 level. The average daily GGR was MOP 703 million, down 9.5% from October [1][16] - The cumulative GGR for January to November 2025 was MOP 226.515 billion, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth and 84.0% of the 2019 level. The industry is expected to achieve high single-digit growth in 2025 [1][16] - The Macau government forecasts a GGR of MOP 236 billion for 2026, indicating a potential single-digit decline compared to 2025, which the market views as conservative [1][16] Summary by Sections Gaming Revenue - November 2025 GGR was MOP 21.088 billion, up 14.4% YoY, and 92.2% of 2019 levels. The average daily GGR was MOP 703 million, down 9.5% from October [1][16] - Cumulative GGR from January to November 2025 reached MOP 226.515 billion, up 8.6% YoY, and 84.0% of 2019 levels [1][16] Visitor Statistics - In October 2025, the number of inbound visitors to Macau increased by 10.8% YoY to 3.47 million, recovering to 108.2% of 2019 levels. Mainland Chinese visitors accounted for 73.0% of total visitors [3][17] - For the first ten months of 2025, total inbound visitors were 33.14 million, up 14.1% YoY, and 99.2% of 2019 levels [3][17] Hotel Occupancy - The hotel occupancy rate in Macau for October 2025 was 89.3%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase YoY and a 4.9 percentage point increase MoM [4][18] - The average stay duration for hotel guests was stable at 1.7 nights [4][18]