❖ 核心观点：综合考虑关税不确定性下出口主要矛盾、数据可得性、跟踪及时性 等因素后，我们构建出口 6 大类别、16 大指标高频跟踪框架（图 1），这些指 标目前显示的出口叙事是：4 月美国新增关税对需求的压制似乎逐渐体现在 5 月出口数据上，用于跟踪出口"量"的主要高频指标均边际走弱。此外，5 月 12 日，中美签署日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明后，市场预期的"抢出口"潮目前 只从运价指标（北美航线运价暴涨）以及美国 Markit 制造业 PMI 新订单和 采购库存指数上看到一些端倪，出口"量"的高频似乎还看不到有"抢出口" 的迹象。 ❖ 一、把握关税不确定性对出口冲击的核心矛盾 特朗普关税反复无常，静态估算关税对中国整体出口冲击，误差可能较大。因 此，对市场而言更重要的可能是，从宏观层面把握关税对出口传导路径的核心 矛盾，抓住影响核心矛盾的关键变量，以及从客观高频或者同步指标层面密切 跟踪关键变量的变化。本文旨在构建一个关税不确定性背景下更加实用的出口 高频跟踪框架。 ❖ 二、关税不确定性下的出口高频跟踪框架 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 不止是"出口"——中国出口研判进阶手册 （一）如何跟踪全球贸易需求 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, with a target price of 15.5 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company held an investor communication meeting on June 5, 2025, where management addressed strategic planning, product planning, and reform progress, providing guidance for investors [2]. - Yanjing Beer is focusing on the U8 product line, which has shown strong sales momentum, achieving over 400,000 tons in the first five months of 2025, representing a 45% completion of the annual target [7]. - The company is committed to optimizing its product structure and enhancing operational efficiency through digital systems and cost management reforms, which are expected to release profit elasticity [7]. - The management aims to catch up with leading companies in the industry during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, emphasizing innovation and operational improvements [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 14,667 million CNY in 2024 to 15,439 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.3% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 1,056 million CNY in 2024 to 1,451 million CNY in 2025, with a growth rate of 37.4% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.37 CNY in 2024 to 0.51 CNY in 2025 [3]. Market Performance - The company has shown a strong performance compared to the CSI 300 index over the past 12 months, indicating a positive market sentiment towards Yanjing Beer [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase is conducive to stabilizing the capital expectation, and the cross - half - year liquidity pressure is controllable. Attention should be paid to short - end allocation opportunities [3][5] - The central bank's toolbox has a more reasonable term distribution, and the liquidity tools for each term are relatively complete [4][17] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Outright Reverse Repurchase Operation Pre - operation - On June 6, 2025, the central bank will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a 3 - month term to maintain the liquidity of the banking system [2][11] - From April to June 2025, the outright reverse repurchase continued to have a small - scale net withdrawal, and the current balance is around 4.2 trillion. The pre - operation in June is mainly to consider the large - scale maturity of certificates of deposit and the concentrated issuance of government bonds [3][11] - The operation time is advanced, and the arrival rhythm of funds may be accelerated. In the future, the announcement may be released one day in advance, which is consistent with the MLF operation mode, facilitating institutions to arrange liquidity in advance [3][11] - The operation frequency is theoretically once a month. Whether there will be an additional operation in June remains to be seen, or the MLF may be flexibly increased at the end of the month [3][12] 3.2 Take Stock of the Central Bank's Toolbox - The central bank adjusted the "Monetary Policy Tools" section and disclosed the monthly investment of various tools for the first time, increasing a market communication channel [16] - The central bank's toolbox has a more reasonable term distribution, including short - term (7 - day reverse repurchase, overnight reverse repurchase), medium - term (MLF, outright reverse repurchase, and various structural tools), and long - term (reserve requirement ratio cut, treasury bond trading) tools [4][17] - The reverse repurchase tool fluctuates in the range of 0 - 3 trillion; the balance of the outright reverse repurchase and MLF is flexibly adjusted between 4 - 5 trillion; the PSL balance has declined to below 2 trillion; other structural monetary policy tools total about 3.9 trillion, accounting for about 22% of the relevant subject, and there is still about 1 trillion of the subject without a clear corresponding tool [4][21][22] 3.3 Cross - Half - Year Liquidity Pressure is Controllable, Focus on Short - End Allocation Opportunities - After the double cuts, the central bank's investment thinking is relatively positive. In May, after the reserve requirement ratio cut, the MLF, outright reverse repurchase, and 7D reverse repurchase maintained positive investment. The pre - operation of the outright reverse repurchase in June is conducive to stabilizing capital expectations [5][25] - Historically, the central bank has mostly protected the market during the cross - half - year period. It is expected that the risk of a significant tightening of funds is relatively controllable. The DR007 is expected to be in the range of 1.5 - 1.65% [5][31][33] - For short - end varieties, when the yield of 1 - year certificates of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks is above 1.7%, their allocation value can be considered. The cost - performance of short - term treasury bonds is relatively high, and attention should be paid to the impact of the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading on the short - end market [6][36][37]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20250605 市场概况：今日转债增量上涨，估值环比抬升 指数表现：中证转债指数环比上涨 0.17%、上证综指环比上涨 0.23%、深证成 指环比上涨 0.58%、创业板指环比上涨 1.17%、上证 50 指数环比上涨 0.05%、 中证 1000 指数环比上涨 0.72%。 市场风格：小盘成长相对占优。大盘成长环比上涨 0.42%、大盘价值环比下降 0.25%、中盘成长环比上涨 0.28%、中盘价值环比下降 0.50%、小盘成长环比 上涨 0.73%、小盘价值环比下降 0.33%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪升温。可转债市场成交额为 673.96 亿元，环比 增长 4.69%；万得全 A 总成交额为 13169.62 亿元，环比增长 11.85%；沪深两 市主力净流出 3.59 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.37bp 至 1.67%。 转债价格：转债中枢提升，高价券占比提升。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 119.78 元，环比昨日上升 0.22%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 163.72 元，环比 上升 2.22%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 111.02 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights that fixed income products dominate the market, with a significant preference for low-risk investment options among investors [10][18] - The issuance of new financial products has shown a trend towards "fixed income + strategy" products, while equity allocations remain cautious [18][31] - The insurance product market has seen a slight decline in new launches, but there is a notable increase in the proportion of participating insurance products compared to the previous year [41][42] Summary by Sections 1. Bank Wealth Management Products - During the period from May 19 to May 30, 2025, a total of 3,088 new wealth management products were launched, with closed-end net value products accounting for 72.38% [10] - Fixed income products made up 96.86% of new issuances, reflecting a strong market preference for low-risk investments [13][18] - The majority of new products (98.06%) had a duration of less than three years, indicating a trend towards shorter-term investments [13] 2. Fund Products - A total of 57 new public funds were established during the same period, with a total issuance scale of 354.10 billion units [25] - Equity funds led the issuance with 38 new funds totaling 167.58 billion yuan, representing 47.32% of the total [28] - The market is seeing a shift towards tool-based and thematic products, with a significant number of index funds being launched [32] 3. Insurance Products - The number of new life insurance products launched decreased slightly, with 18 new products introduced, including 6 participating insurance products [41] - The proportion of floating yield products in new annuity insurance products has increased to about 50% [42] - The report notes that the majority of products still adhere to the regulatory limits set for traditional, participating, and universal insurance products [46]

Group 1: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on Credit Bonds - The impact of deposit rate cuts on credit bond performance varies; if the cuts lead to a decline in policy rates, credit spreads typically widen, while if they precede rate cuts, spreads may narrow [1][9][10] - Historical analysis shows that after deposit rate cuts, the net buying power for credit bonds from funds and insurance is usually limited, indicating a weak immediate impact [1][15][9] - The short-term influence of deposit rate cuts on credit spreads is primarily driven by market sentiment and conditions rather than direct attribution to the event [1][15][9] Group 2: June Credit Bond Strategy - In June, the demand for credit bonds may weaken marginally, and the momentum for spread narrowing is expected to slow down due to seasonal trends [1][25][28] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with institutions focusing on high-yield bonds to potentially drive structural narrowing in credit spreads, although a trend compression is unlikely [1][25][28] - The liquidity environment is expected to be stable, with the central bank showing a strong willingness to support liquidity, which may help mitigate risks of significant capital outflows [1][28][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - For urban investment bonds, focus on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium to high-grade bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly in regions with strong financial capabilities [2][3] - In the real estate sector, attention should be on AA-rated bonds from central and state-owned enterprises with maturities of 1-2 years, as lower-grade real estate bonds have shown significant spread compression [2][3] - For cyclical bonds, particularly coal and steel, a cautious approach is recommended, with a focus on high-grade issuers to avoid tail risks associated with declining market conditions [2][3]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观月报】 5 月全球投资十大主线 事 项 5 月全球大类资产总体表现为：全球股票（5.72%）>大宗商品（1.26%）>人民 币（1.00%）> 0%>美元（-0.14%）>全球债券（-0.36%）。 主要观点 ❖ 十张图速览全球资产脉络 1、美国"大而美法案"通过或加剧美国长债风险。共和党推动的"大而美法 案"包括大规模减税及支出调整，引发市场对美国债务可持续性的担忧。当前 美国国债规模已突破 36 万亿美元，如果法案落地，预计 2035 年债务/GDP 比 率恐飙升至 134%-149%，引发市场对财政可持续性的深度担忧。在此背景下， 穆迪于 5 月 16 日将美国主权信用评级从 Aaa 下调至 Aa1。评级调降触发连锁 反应，30 年期美债收益率突破 5%，同时需求端结构性走弱，30 年期国债投标 认购比例显著回落，反映全球投资者对美债信用锚定的动摇。 2、美国经济衰退概率上升下美股防御性板块跑赢周期性板块。关税政策升级 与经济增速放缓的双重压力下，2025 年美国股市呈现出防御性板块跑赢周期 性板块的特征。截至 2025 年 5 月底，美股防御板块相比周期板块估值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the animal health industry, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 5% in the next 3-6 months [79]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth in vaccine approvals for circular, pseudorabies, and diarrhea vaccines, with notable year-on-year increases [7][8]. - The animal drug raw material market shows a continued strong performance in macrolide products, with price indices reflecting a structural differentiation among various products [52][53]. - The overall demand for animal health products is expected to recover, driven by improved profitability in the breeding sector and the introduction of new products [68][69]. Summary by Sections Vaccine Approvals - In April, major vaccine varieties for pigs showed substantial year-on-year growth, with circular vaccine up by 71.2%, pseudorabies vaccine by 73.3%, and diarrhea vaccine by 220% [7][8]. - Cumulative data from January to April indicates most vaccine types experienced significant growth, particularly in pig vaccines, with circular vaccine up by 52.3% and pseudorabies vaccine by 48.2% [8][9]. Raw Material Prices - As of the end of April, the Veterinary Pharmaceutical Index (VPI) was 69.2, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous month and a 13.4% increase year-on-year [52][53]. - Prices for macrolide products such as Tylosin, Tylvalosin, and Tilmicosin have shown strong performance, with increases of 10.1%, 17.6%, and 15.4% respectively compared to the end of March [53][54]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a stable upward trend in the demand for animal health products, supported by a robust breeding sector and ongoing product innovation [68][69]. - The competitive landscape is expected to lead to a dual recovery in performance and valuation for the sector, with a focus on larger companies that can leverage their financial strength and product diversity [69][70]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Reap Bio, Kexin Bio, and others, which are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated market recovery [68][70].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [5][66]. Core Insights - The AI sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with significant updates from companies like ByteDance and OpenAI, indicating a competitive landscape and innovation in agent technologies [11][12]. - The introduction of the XBench benchmarking tool by Sequoia China marks a shift towards comprehensive AI evaluation systems, moving beyond traditional performance metrics to assess capabilities across various scenarios [12][13]. - The launch of new features in applications such as Doubao and QQ Browser demonstrates the increasing integration of AI in everyday services, enhancing user interaction and decision-making processes [37][45]. Summary by Sections AI Insights - The report highlights multiple updates in the AI field, including the upgrade of OpenAI's Operator model from GPT-4o to o3, which enhances reasoning and interaction capabilities [11][50]. - Domestic developments include the launch of XBench by Sequoia China, which aims to provide a more scientific evaluation framework for AI capabilities [12][13]. Domestic Developments - Sequoia China's XBench tool introduces a dual-track evaluation system that assesses both theoretical limits and practical value of AI systems [14][15]. - Doubao's new video call feature allows real-time interaction with AI, marking a significant advancement in visual and auditory AI capabilities [37][38]. - QQ Browser's "AI Gaokao Tong" provides comprehensive support for students during the college entrance examination process, showcasing the potential of AI in education [45][46]. - The launch of Kunlun's Skywork Super Agents mobile app signifies a breakthrough in mobile office applications, enhancing productivity through AI integration [48][49]. International Developments - OpenAI's upgrade of the Operator model significantly improves its ability to handle complex tasks, indicating a trend towards more sophisticated AI applications [50][51]. - The report suggests that advancements in AI technology will continue to drive innovation and competition in the industry, with a focus on multi-modal integration and deep learning optimization [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on AI enterprise services and application scenarios, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various sectors such as office software, marketing, ERP, and education [53][54][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The relationship between housing prices and consumption has changed significantly since 2018, with a notable weakening of correlation post-2018 [9][14] - The report identifies two layers of analysis regarding the relationship between housing prices and consumption: a shallow layer influenced by income and a deeper layer concerning the ability of housing prices to shift the demand curve [22][62] - The efficiency of the real estate sector's impact on economic growth has decreased since 2018, primarily due to the diminishing effectiveness of land finance and land fiscal policies [10][62] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market value of 1,111.02 billion and a circulating market value of 1,060.27 billion [4] Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -0.3%, -16.7%, and -4.7% respectively, while the relative performance is -2.1%, -14.7%, and -11.5% [5] Research Findings - Prior to 2018, housing prices were positively correlated with consumption, but this correlation has weakened significantly since then [9][14] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector's early-cycle characteristics were driven by land finance and fiscal policies rather than the real estate industry chain itself [27][62] - After controlling for income, the report finds that rising housing prices tend to have a negative impact on consumption [47][62] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investment opportunities in residential development companies lie in two main areas: policy maneuvering and companies with competitive advantages in niche markets, such as Greentown China and China Resources Land [10][62] - It also highlights potential opportunities in commercial real estate companies, including Swire Properties and China Resources Vientiane Life, as well as in intermediary businesses with strong competitive advantages like Beike-W [10][62]