行业研究 证券研究报 告 新疆周报（20250519-20250525） 推荐（维持） 准东开发区召开 160 万吨煤制烯烃项目调度会 基础化工 2025 年 05 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：杨晖 邮箱：yanghui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522050001 证券分析师：陈俊新 邮箱：chenjunxin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 489 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 41,430.39 | 4.28 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 36,742.13 | 4.79 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -4.7% | -1.9% | -0.4% | | 相对表现 | -1.1% | 1.2% | -5.0% | -20% -8% 5% 17% 24/05 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/03 25/05 2024-05-27~ ...

证券研究报告 创新药周报20250525： Merus EGFR/LGR5双抗+K药一线治疗HNSCC 数据积极 证券分析师刘浩 执业编号：S0360520120002 邮箱：liuhao@hcyjs.com 联系人段江瑶 邮箱：duanjiangyao@hcyjs.com @2021 华创版权所有 第一部分 本周创新药重点关注 国内创新药回顾 02 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 2025-05-25 全球新药速递 03 01 头颈鳞癌 证券研究报告 ┃ 头颈癌发病部位及年发病人数 ┃ 头颈癌治疗方案及疗效 资料来源：John D.Cramer et al.,The changing therapeutic landscape of head and neck cancer，Merus《Corporate Presentation May 2025》，华创证券 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 3 ◼ 头颈癌是指位于头颈部位，除了脑癌以外的 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 电动车行业周报（20250519-20250523） 小米投资合肥固态电池企业，金龙羽签订固态电池 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 ❑ 小米投资合肥固态电池企业，金龙羽签订固态电池订单。近期新增小米旗下瀚星创 业投资有限公司、强邦新材、合肥市包河区科创种子基金合伙企业（有限合伙）为 合肥因势新材料科技有限公司股东，注册资本由 100 万元人民币增至约 111.67 万 元人民币。这家公司在 5 月初刚刚完成一项名为"一种基于氧掺杂的硫化物固体电 解质及其制备方法"的技术成果转化。2025 年 5 月 20 日，金龙羽新能源（深圳） 有限公司签订无人机用高能量密度固态电芯采购订单。金龙羽固态锂离子电池产品 EC01 系列超能固态电芯，拥有 500Wh/kg 超高能量密度，在零下 40℃极寒环境中 3C 倍率放电仍达 70%，是特种设备与无人机专属动力源。订单约定一年内采购十 万支电芯产品。 ❑ 本周行情回顾：本周电新板块下跌 0.48%，全行业排名 14 名，跑输沪深 300 指数。 根据中信行业指数，本周电力设备及新能源板块下跌 0.48%，在全行业 30 个行业 板块中排名第 14 位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The transmission path from policy rates to deposit rate cuts is in line with expectations, but the adjustment amplitude of deposit rates exceeds expectations, which helps banks reduce liability costs [1][17]. - From three dimensions, the impact of deposit rate cuts on the bond market is complex. The decline in medium - and long - term bank liability costs may be beneficial for bond allocation, but there may be disturbances in the short - term due to deposit migration, and the impact on other fixed - income investors varies [2]. - The current deposit rate cuts may not bring significant positive effects to the bond market as the market has already priced in factors such as loose funds and declining bank liability costs. The bond market is in a narrow - range shock, with multiple long and short factors intertwined [3]. - The trading cost - effectiveness of 10 - year Treasury bonds above 1.7% is emerging, and attention should be paid to positive carry varieties for coupon payments, while more caution is needed for ultra - long - term bonds [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Three Dimensions of the Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on the Bond Market (1) The transmission path from policy rates to deposit rate cuts is in line with expectations - On May 20, major banks experienced the seventh round of deposit rate cuts. The policy transmission path of OMO policy rate - 1 - year LPR - deposit listing rate is clear [1]. - The adjustment amplitude of deposit rates exceeds expectations. The long - end deposit listing rate is still lowered by about 25bp, and the decline in the bank deposit self - regulatory ceiling is generally higher than that of the listing rate [1][17]. - The reason is that banks still face great pressure on net interest margins, and larger deposit rate cuts help reduce bank liability costs [1][20]. (2) Three dimensions to view the impact of deposit rate cuts on the bond market - **Asset side**: The decline in medium - and long - term bank liability costs may exceed 10bp, which is beneficial for removing constraints on bank bond allocation. The decline in long - end deposit rates and the proportion of general deposits contribute to this decline [2][21]. - **Liability side**: In the short term, there may be a phenomenon of deposit migration to non - banks after the deposit listing rate is cut, increasing bank liability pressure and disturbing the bond market. The outflow scale of M1 in the month of deposit rate cuts and the following two months is about 1 trillion [2][27]. - **For other fixed - income investors**: The yield of insurance's available - to - invest assets (general time deposits) decreases, while the impact on bank wealth management, which mainly invests in non - bank deposits and inter - bank certificates of deposit, is controllable [2]. - Overall, the positive impact of the decline in liability costs on the bond market needs time to materialize, and the current deposit rate cuts may not bring significant positive effects. Short - term focus should be on liability outflow pressure, especially the pricing of certificates of deposit and the growth of wealth management scale [29][33]. II. Bond Market Strategy: Trading Cost - Effectiveness Above 1.7% Emerges, Focus on Positive Carry Varieties for Coupon Payments (1) Bond market shock, with multiple long and short factors intertwined - **Short - term capital price**: After the deposit rate cut, the capital price is expected to remain stable. DR007 may continue to be 10 - 20bp higher than the policy rate, and the short - term capital price may fluctuate around 1.5 - 1.6% [3][39]. - **Positive factors**: The domestic economy enters the off - season in the second quarter, with weakening high - frequency indicators in investment and real estate. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations may affect economic data, and the central bank may restart Treasury bond purchases [3]. - **Negative factors**: The "rush to export" effect in May may boost second - quarter data, and the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market due to the high risk appetite in the equity market [3]. - **Summary**: The short - term capital price may remain stable, but there are still many uncertainties in the bond market, making it difficult to determine trends, and the bond market is likely to continue to fluctuate [3]. (2) Operation strategy: Trading cost - effectiveness above 1.7% emerges, focus on positive carry varieties for coupon payments - **10 - year Treasury bonds**: The core pricing range of 10 - year Treasury bonds has changed, and above 1.7%, they gradually have trading cost - effectiveness and can be considered for allocation as the yield rises [4][65]. - **Ultra - long - term bonds**: 30 - year Treasury bonds and other ultra - long - term bonds still need to wait for opportunities. The supply - demand pattern of long - term bonds is unfavorable, and short - term positive factors are not clear [4][66]. - **Operation suggestions**: Focus on positive carry varieties. Bonds such as 7.5 - 9.5 - year Treasury bonds, 5.5 - year China Development Bank bonds, etc., which were negative carry last week and have become positive carry this week, can be focused on [4][71]. III. Review of the Interest - Bearing Bond Market: Deposit Rate Cuts Implemented, Bond Market in Narrow - Range Shock - **Funding situation**: The central bank's OMO has turned to net investment, and the funding situation is balanced and loose. The weighted price of DR007 has dropped to around 1.59%, and major banks may issue inter - bank certificates of deposit at higher prices to make up for the liability gap [10][11]. - **Primary issuance**: The net financing of Treasury bonds and local bonds has decreased, while the net financing of policy - bank bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit has increased [7]. - **Benchmark changes**: The term spread of Treasury bonds has widened, and the term spread of China Development Bank bonds has narrowed [7].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】海外周报第 92 期 美欧日 5 月制造业 PMI 回升 主要观点 ❖ 下周即将公布的海外重点经济数据 美国： 4 月耐用品订单初值（5/27），5 月咨商局消费者信心指数（5/27），5 月 FOMC 会议纪要（5/29），4 月份个人收入和支出数据（5/30），5 月密歇根大学 消费者信心指数和 1 年期通胀预期终值（5/30）、4 月批发库存环比初值（5/30）。 欧元区：5 月消费者信心指数终值（5/27），4 月 M3 货币供应同比（5/30）。 日本：4 月失业率（5/30），5 月东京 CPI 数据（5/30）,4 月工业产值初值（5/30）， 4 月零售数据（5/30）。 ❖ 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：1）5 月制造业 PMI 好于预期，标普制造业 PMI 初值 52.3，预期 49.9， 前值 50.2；标普服务业 PMI 初值 52.3，预期 51，前值 50.8。2）4 月二手房销 售低于预期，新房销售好于预期，成屋销售折年数 400 万套，预期 410 万套， 前值 402 万套。新屋销售 74.3 万套，预期 69.5 万 ...

大势研判：从布局黄金坑到震荡判断，当下重结构、轻方向。行至当下，我们 依然认为指数层面短期或维持区间震荡的格局，上下空间有限：1）向下看国 家队资金托底，无论是去年 924 市场底部、抑或是今年 4 月关税冲击市场回 调，国家队资金均通过大力增持 ETF 稳定股市；2）向上看基本面和政策都仍 需等待，一方面是外部关税事件对于出口和外需影响的不确定性仍在，另一方 面国内在价格低位运行的基础上，4 月经济数据显示基本面修复持续性和力度 仍需观测；政策来看，货币方面降准降息落地、财政方面地方新增专项债发行 进度达 34%已高于去年 5 月末 30%，但如此前 5/9《走出黄金坑——策略周聚 焦》所述，当下政策更多是既有工具的加速使用，更大力度的刺激及创新型工 具的推出可能要等待 7 月政治局会议。综上所述，后续市场表现更应注重结构 配置、轻方向。 策略研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 杠铃依旧：旧红利与新成长 ——策略周聚焦 ❖ 从布局黄金坑到震荡判断，当下重结构、轻方向 ❖ 旧红利与新故事 25 年至今行情：杠铃领涨的背后，大盘成长弹性有限。从今年以来单风格指 数表现来看，明显表现为小市值、低估值占优； ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment sentiment for the automotive sector, with an optimistic outlook for annual sales growth, projecting a retail growth rate of 5.2% and a wholesale growth rate of 8.4% for the year [2][3]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a recovery in sales, particularly in April, with a year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of 11.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.0%. The report anticipates that sales levels will remain strong, especially for high-end brands priced above 200,000 yuan, with a forecasted wholesale growth rate of 31% for new energy passenger vehicles [2][4]. - The report highlights the strong performance of new energy vehicle manufacturers, with BYD delivering 380,089 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 21%, and other new players like Leap Motor and Xpeng showing significant growth [4][20]. - Traditional automakers like Geely and SAIC also showed notable sales increases, with Geely's sales up by 53% year-on-year in April [4][24]. Data Tracking - In April, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.22 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 11.0% and a month-on-month decline of 10.0%. The export sales for the same month were 430,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4% and a month-on-month increase of 5.0% [4][24]. - The average discount rate in early May was 7.2%, slightly down from the previous month, with an average discount amount of 10,613 yuan [4][25]. - The report recommends key companies in the automotive sector, including JAC Motors, Li Auto, Geely, and BYD, highlighting their competitive advantages and potential for upward price elasticity [5][6]. Industry News - The report notes that as of late April, the national inventory of passenger vehicles reached 3.5 million units, indicating a slight increase in inventory pressure compared to previous years [31]. - Recent collaborations, such as the strategic partnership between Dongfeng Motor Group and Huawei, aim to enhance smart vehicle technologies and digital transformation within the automotive sector [31][32]. - The report also mentions the overall market performance, with the automotive sector index rising by 1.80% in the latest week, ranking third among 29 sectors [8][33].

证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业周报（20250519-20250525） 商业银行一季度经营仍有承压，息差降幅同 推荐（维持） 比收窄 分银行类型来看，商业银行内部表现分化，国有行表现较好，城商行有所改善， 股份行和农商行则经营继续承压。1）国有行主要靠量增维持净利润正增长。 1Q25国有行净利润同比+0.09%。我们推算1Q25国有行贷款同比增速环比+3bp 至 9.29%，贷款增量占比同比+4pct 至 61%。1Q25 净息差环比下降 11bp（1Q24 为-15bp)；2）股份行规模增速放缓，利润增速转负：1Q25 股份行净利润同比 -4.5%，主要是贷款增速放缓（1Q25 贷款同比增速环比-0.28pct 至 4.06%）， 息差同比降幅收窄；3）城商行量价均有改善，利润增速降幅较 24 年收窄： 1Q25 城商行净利润同比-6.68%，增速较 24 年末+6.45pct。一方面是规模加快 扩张，1Q25 贷款增速环比+0.29pct 至 7.98%；另一方面是息差表现较优，1Q25 环比仅下降 1bp 至 1.37%（1Q24 息差降幅为 12bp）；4）农商行息差同比降幅 有所收窄，净利润降幅也 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 钢铁行业周报（20250519-20250523） 推荐（维持） 原料价格回落，钢厂盈利率持续修复 ❑ 行业观点：需求显现淡季特征，钢材价格走弱 事件一：截至 5 月 23 日，五大品种螺纹钢、线材、热轧、冷轧、中板价格分 别报收 3280 元/吨、3617 元/吨、3295 元/吨、3731 元/吨、3521 元/吨，周环比 分别变化-1.50%、-1.09%、-0.75%、-0.97%、-0.52%。本周五大品种产量 872.44 万吨，周环比上升 4.09 万吨。247 家钢铁企业日均铁水 243.6 万吨，周环比下 降 1.17 万吨，高炉产能利用率 91.32%，周环比下降 0.44 个百分点，高炉开工 率 83.69%，周环比下降 0.46 个百分点。短流程企业，电炉产能利用率 59.5%， 周环比上升 2.93 个百分点，电炉开工率 77.18%，周环比上升 1.98 个百分点。 库存方面，本周钢材总库存 1398.54 万吨，周环比下降 32.12 万吨。其中社会 库存环比下降 33.11 万吨至 960.56 万吨；钢厂库存环比增加 0.99 万吨至 437.98 万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [10][20]. Core Insights - The company experienced a slight decline in revenue but significantly improved its AI capabilities. In Q1 2025, total revenue was 1.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.53%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 30 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 390.89%. For 2024, total revenue was 6.203 billion yuan, down 4.93%, with a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 116.19% [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The company reported a total revenue of 6.240 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 4.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 251 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 116.2% [5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.27 yuan, 0.39 yuan, and 0.53 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 54, 38, and 28 [5][10]. - **Target Price**: The target price is set at 16.2 yuan, compared to the current price of 13.88 yuan [6]. Business Development Summary - **Digital Cost Business**: In 2024, revenue from this segment was 4.986 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.55%. The business is evolving from single-tool applications to comprehensive cost management solutions, increasing coverage from 53.78% to 79.25% [10]. - **Digital Construction Business**: This segment generated 787 million yuan in revenue for 2024, down 8.71%. The company made advancements in smart construction technologies [10]. - **Digital Design Business**: Revenue increased by 3.28% to 90 million yuan in 2024, with a growing number of application projects [10]. AI and International Expansion - The company has enhanced its AI capabilities, launching new AI-driven products and platforms. In 2024, overseas revenue reached 203 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.07% [10]. Employee Incentives - A new stock option incentive plan was introduced, covering 485 employees with a target net profit of 563 million yuan for 2025, aiming for a 30% growth in 2026 [10]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.443 billion yuan, 6.710 billion yuan, and 6.980 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 448 million yuan, 646 million yuan, and 871 million yuan [10].