Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes a stable yet progressive approach to economic work, focusing on quality and efficiency improvements while implementing proactive macro policies [2][3][21] - The meeting highlighted the importance of a multi-dimensional policy system that covers both supply and demand, aiming for a transformation in economic growth dynamics through domestic demand and innovation [14][18] - The report outlines the significance of institutionalizing the leadership of the Communist Party in the rule of law, enhancing the governance system and capacity modernization [18][21] Group 2 - The report suggests that the economic work for the upcoming year will adhere to the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," with a focus on quality enhancement and efficiency [3][21] - It emphasizes the need for a coordinated policy approach that integrates fiscal, monetary, industrial, and technological policies to effectively support the real economy [13][14] - The report identifies key areas for future investment opportunities, including domestic demand-driven sectors, innovation-driven industries, and the financial sector [22]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound this week (12/1-12/5), with the overall A-share index rising by 0.72%. The leading indices included the ChiNext Index, CSI 300, and Shenzhen Component Index, while the STAR 50 and micro-cap stocks lagged behind. In terms of style, cyclical stocks led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors underperformed [2][9]. - The stock-bond yield spread decreased to 0.6%, which is below the +1 standard deviation threshold, indicating a decline in valuation differentiation [3][23]. - Market sentiment showed signs of adjustment, with a decrease in industry rotation intensity. The overall market style favored large-cap stocks, while micro-cap indices underperformed [3][24]. Industry Highlights - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 reusable rocket marks a significant milestone for China's commercial space sector, indicating progress towards reusable rocket technology [4][48]. - The release of the Doubao mobile assistant represents a significant step in edge AI development, although it faces challenges in ecosystem integration [4][49]. - The launch of the Livis AI glasses by Li Auto showcases advancements in smart vehicle interaction, suggesting a growing competitive landscape in the AI glasses market [4][50]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the upcoming spring rally may begin earlier, potentially providing an opportunity for increased investment if the market forms a "double bottom" pattern [4][53]. - Domestic computing power is expected to be a key driver in the upcoming market rally, with a focus on policy-supported non-bank financial investment opportunities and commercial aerospace and satellite connectivity [4][53]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring sectors such as mechanical equipment, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, which have seen significant inflows of leveraged funds [3][34].

行 农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 08 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价弱势运行，11 月第三方能繁延续去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价维持弱势，11 月第三方能繁延续去化。（1）月初缩 量拉涨有限，本周猪价窄幅回调。本月初集团场缩量拉涨猪价，但市场接 受度有限，散户大猪顺势出栏，供应压力持续，供大于求格局持续。12 月 5 日猪价 11.19 元/公斤，周环比-0.01 元/公斤。（2）本周屠宰量继续增长。 受降温天气带动，四川地区腌腊、灌肠活动陆续启动，对生猪屠宰量形成 支撑。本周样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 17.66 万头，周环比+1.83%。（3） 本周生猪出栏均重继续增长。本周集团出栏节奏收窄后放量，集团出栏均 重小幅增加；散户受制于资金和疫情影响，北方多地散户大猪出栏积极性 偏强，散户出栏均重增幅明显。截至 12 月 4 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 129.82 公斤，周环比+0.60 公斤。展望后市，养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国能繁 母猪存栏量降 ...

传统宏观因子、宏观周期的高维度体系构建 2025 年 12 月 08 日 金 融 工 程 高维宏观周期驱动风格、行业月报(2025/11):经济 景气下行、通胀细分项下行看好大盘价值风格 投资要点： 金 融 工 程 定 期 报 告 宏观因子变量的构建：将宏观指数分别对宽基指数、代理宏观变 量做回归，选取 t 值显著的细分宏观变量，用过去一年标准差倒数加权 构建宏观因子变量。采用单边 HP 滤波器对宏观经济数据进行调整，消 除短期波动对长期趋势判断的影响。基于滤波变量，分别用因子动量 划分宏观趋势（上行、下行）和用时序百分位划分宏观状态（高、中、 低位）。 宏观因子升维的必要性：宏观因子 A 对宽基、风格和行业的价格 传导在 A 的不同边际变化不一致，且宏观因子 A 在宏观因子 B 的不同 状态下驱动宽基、风格和行业的收益方向也不同。同一状态及其边际 变化所对应的周期混乱，我们需要将宏观变量的边际与状态结合，综 合考虑宏观变量的变化趋势和所处的时序排位。 多信号驱动下的指数择时、风格轮动 小盘全指择时：在库存处于中等向上水平时预测值最高，因此推 荐配置中证全指。 2012 年 1 月末起至 2025 年 11 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Brain science has emerged as a strategic high ground in global technological competition, driving advancements in the diagnosis and treatment of major brain diseases like Alzheimer's and supporting breakthroughs in brain-machine interface technologies [2][6][8] - Countries are increasingly incorporating brain science into national technology strategies, with significant initiatives such as the U.S. "BRAIN Initiative," the EU's "Human Brain Project," and China's "Brain Science and Brain-like Research" major project, reflecting a robust investment in research and infrastructure [2][7][8] - The global focus on brain science and brain-like intelligence is expected to continue growing, positioning these fields as key areas for future industrial development and international technological competition [8][9] Group 2: Market Performance - In the pharmaceutical sector, the medical services and traditional Chinese medicine II sub-industries recorded positive returns, with the pharmaceutical commercial sector leading at +5.19% [9][11] - The biopharmaceutical sector's valuation levels showed significant variation, with the highest being for biopharmaceuticals at 87.91 times earnings, while the lowest was for pharmaceutical commerce at 21.61 times [9][12] Group 3: Industry Trends - The recent international conference on artificial hearts highlighted the need for standardized definitions and terminology in the field, with significant participation from Chinese enterprises, indicating a collaborative effort to advance technology and improve clinical evaluations [14][15] - Shanghai is accelerating the development of brain-machine interface technologies, achieving milestones such as the first clinical trials for invasive brain-machine interfaces and the application of non-invasive products in rehabilitation and mental health [17][18]

Group 1: Theme Investment Strategy - The report aims to create a tool for theme investment by identifying theme opportunities through comprehensive screening of theme indices, allowing investment managers to focus on logical analysis and decision-making[2] - It introduces the concept of "right-side breakout" to capture theme initiation signals and participate in the first wave of market movements[4] - The report emphasizes the importance of avoiding themes with "absolute highs" within the last four months to focus on the most dynamic themes[4] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Backtesting results indicate that the right-side breakout pattern shows significant excess returns, particularly in bullish markets, with a 69.6% probability of price increase over a 5-day holding period in 2024[18] - The report highlights that 43.4% of indices have a fund holding ratio between 2-5%, with the highest fund holding ratio in technology themes at 20.4%[21] - The average return for the right-side breakout strategy over a 10-day holding period is 2.9% from 2021 to 2024, with a 68.3% probability of price increase in 2024[18] Group 3: Risk Considerations - Historical performance does not guarantee future results, and investors should consider current market conditions and economic trends[32] - Risks include uncertainties in industry dynamics, slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, and geopolitical tensions affecting market stability[32]

农林牧渔 2025 年 12 月 08 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 猪价弱势运行，11 月第三方能繁延续去化 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：猪价维持弱势，11 月第三方能繁延续去化。（1）月初缩 量拉涨有限，本周猪价窄幅回调。本月初集团场缩量拉涨猪价，但市场接 受度有限，散户大猪顺势出栏，供应压力持续，供大于求格局持续。12 月 5 日猪价 11.19 元/公斤，周环比-0.01 元/公斤。（2）本周屠宰量继续增长。 受降温天气带动，四川地区腌腊、灌肠活动陆续启动，对生猪屠宰量形成 支撑。本周样本屠宰企业日均屠宰量为 17.66 万头，周环比+1.83%。（3） 本周生猪出栏均重继续增长。本周集团出栏节奏收窄后放量，集团出栏均 重小幅增加；散户受制于资金和疫情影响，北方多地散户大猪出栏积极性 偏强，散户出栏均重增幅明显。截至 12 月 4 日当周，行业生猪出栏均重 129.82 公斤，周环比+0.60 公斤。展望后市，养殖已陷入亏损状态，叠加产 能调控政策推进，行业产能去化预计持续，有望推动长期猪价中枢上移， 低成本优质猪企将获得超额收益。根据农业农村部数据，10 月末全国能繁 母猪存栏量降至 ...

投资要点： 锂电板块核心观点：固态电池产业化加速，电解液/隔膜价格继续上涨。1） 固态电池产业化进程再按"加速键"；2）部分锂电材料价格继续上涨。 业 定 期 报 告 光伏板块核心观点：美对华光伏关键设备关税豁免期限延长一年，是利好 也是警示。近日，美国贸易代表办公室发布公告，决定将针对中国光伏制造设 备的 178 项"301 条款"关税豁免期限延长一年，本质是其在能源转型需求与 保护主义间的现实妥协，这为中国光伏企业维持对美出口提供了关键缓冲期。 但长期来看，美国构建"去中国化"供应链的战略方向并未改变。中国产业真 正的核心优势，在于持续领先的技术迭代与规模化制造能力，企业应借此窗口， 进一步巩固技术壁垒与全球化布局，以应对未来更复杂的贸易环境。 风电板块核心观点：中国风电企业全球竞争力不断增强，中国电建 2026 年风电框架招标指引乐观。1）大金重工进军欧洲风电母港服务，中国风电企 业在全球竞争力不断增强；2）中国电建 2026 年风机框架招标量增幅较大，对 2026 年风电装机预期乐观。 核聚变板块核心观点：国核自仪与合肥能源研究院共建"聚变堆自主可控 及智能控制技术联合研究中心"，产业与科研合力攻坚聚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the upcoming Phase III clinical results for the Staphylococcus aureus vaccine by Olin Biotech, expected to be announced in the first half of 2026, emphasizing its potential to fill a market gap and achieve overseas business development [5][33]. - The report notes the increasing global concern over antibiotic resistance, particularly regarding Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), which poses a significant threat to public health, with a clinical detection rate in China reaching 28.7% in the first half of 2025 [5][18]. - The report identifies a favorable competitive landscape for bacterial vaccines, driven by the urgent need to address antibiotic resistance, with Olin Biotech positioned as a leader in this space [16][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report reviews the performance of the pharmaceutical sector from December 1 to December 5, 2025, noting a decline of 0.7% in the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.0 percentage points [4][36]. - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has increased by 16.9% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.4 percentage points [4][36]. 2. Staphylococcus aureus Vaccine - The report discusses the high clinical detection rate of MRSA in China, which has significant implications for public health, with approximately 130,000 deaths globally attributed to MRSA in 2021 [5][18]. - Olin Biotech's vaccine is noted for its advanced development stage, with the Phase III trial involving 6,000 participants expected to complete data analysis in the first half of 2026 [5][33]. - The report emphasizes the high failure rate of bacterial vaccine development, citing past failures of major pharmaceutical companies, which underscores the challenges in this field [5][30]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, particularly those with strong commercial capabilities and rich pipelines, as well as exploring opportunities in medical devices and undervalued sectors that may see a rebound in a bullish market [5][36]. - A recommended investment portfolio includes companies such as Kangfang Biotech, Innovent Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and Olin Biotech, reflecting a strategic focus on high-potential firms within the sector [5][36].

2025 年 12 月 07 日 策 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 弱美元降息或触发风险，中国供给定价相对稳健 ——周观点 投资要点： 近期观点 1、 美国中短期信用宽松，但中长期阻力越来越大。 告 2、 美国若持续宽信用，则海外通胀压力增加，中国价格复苏或 将加速，中国市场偏向大盘价值风格。 3、 AI 泡沫破灭是大概率事件，关注弱美元降息触发风险。 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 4、 交易层面，风险暴露前控制仓位，交易新老能源。 5、 长期看好保险，反内卷行业，中概互联网，军贸。 1、顶层设计下的资本市场系统性改革宣言及投资 机会分析——评吴清主席文章《提高资本市场制 度的包容性适应性》——2025.12.05 2、"十五五"资本市场改革战略蓝图 —— 2025.12.05 3、降息预期主导市场情绪——2025.12.01 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 证 券 研 究 报 告 华福证券 诚信专 ...