华福证券 基金薪酬新规重塑行业生态 事件： 12 月 6 日，《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引（征求意见稿）》下发，该《指引》 旨在进一步规范基金管理公司绩效考核与薪酬管理行为。 主要政策解读： （1）考核体系：从"短期排名"到"长期收益"的硬切换。该考核体系改革 突出长期业绩导向，旨在根治行业的旱涝保收和重规模轻收益现象。通过量 化权重锁定和分层差异化设计，构建了长期收益为王、权责利对等的考核闭 环，将推动公募基金行业真正回归受人之托、代人理财的本源，让基金经理 的专业价值与投资者的长期收益挂钩，让销售行为与客户的实际盈利绑定， 最终实现行业从规模扩张向价值创造的高质量转型。 （2）支付机制：跟投+递延，利益绑定具象化。跟投比例提升与递延支付强 化，通过真金白银的投入和长期锁定的约束，将持有人利益优先的原则具象 化。 （3）框架奖惩机制：阶梯化降薪+多元化激励。《规定》在奖惩机制与激励 体系上的制度设计，核心是通过刚性惩罚划底线、多元激励提上限、全周期 问责强约束，破解行业激励短期化、责任弱绑定的痛点，既以明确的业绩挂 钩机制遏制盲目激进等乱象，又通过中长期激励工具激发核心人员的长期价 值创造动力，实现约束与 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of the first generation AI glasses by Li Auto, marking its entry into the wearable smart device market, alongside major players like Baidu and Alibaba [2][3] - Major companies are actively investing in the AI glasses sector, with Google, Vivo, and Apple also developing their own products, indicating a competitive landscape [3] - The smart glasses market is expected to see significant growth, with global sales projected to reach 14.5 million units by 2025, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% from 2025 to 2029 [4] - The integration of AI into consumer electronics is creating new growth opportunities, with companies like ByteDance and ZTE collaborating on AI smartphones [5] Summary by Relevant Sections AI Glasses Market - Li Auto has launched its AI glasses, which support wireless fast charging, promising "never-ending power" [2] - Google is in the POC stage for two AI glasses products, collaborating with Qualcomm, Samsung, and Foxconn [3] - The smart glasses market is heating up, with a forecast of 6 million units sold by 2029 [4] Consumer Electronics and AI Integration - The report notes a trend among major smartphone manufacturers to release flagship models with AI features, positioning smartphones as key devices for AI technology implementation [5] - The collaboration between ByteDance and ZTE on AI smartphones is expected to yield a product release soon [5] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in foldable screens, smart glasses, silicon-based OLED screens, automation equipment, and 3D printing applications [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating that the overall return is expected to exceed the market benchmark by more than 20% within the next six months [77]. Core Insights - Black Friday sales reached a record high, with total online sales during the shopping week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) amounting to $44.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Notably, Black Friday online sales hit $11.8 billion, up 9.1% year-on-year [3][13]. - The report highlights a significant performance in the cleaning appliance sector, with sweeping robot sales in Europe reaching 390,000 units, a 41% increase year-on-year, and in North America, sales reached 210,000 units, up 58% year-on-year [3][14]. - iRobot is facing bankruptcy, which may lead to further optimization of the overseas market landscape for sweeping robots. The report suggests focusing on domestic leaders in the sweeping robot market, such as Roborock and Ecovacs [5][20]. Summary by Sections Black Friday Sales Performance - Online sales during Black Friday reached a record $11.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%. The overall retail sales (excluding automobiles) increased by 4.1%, with e-commerce channels growing by 10.4% [3][13]. - The average selling price of goods increased by 7%, while the number of items purchased decreased by 2%, indicating a trend of consumer price sensitivity [14]. iRobot's Financial Situation - iRobot's main manufacturer, Picea, acquired $191 million of iRobot's unpaid loans, becoming its primary creditor. If iRobot fails to meet financial covenants by January 15, 2026, it may trigger a default [4][19]. - iRobot is currently negotiating with Picea for a solution to its debt issues, but the likelihood of reaching an agreement outside of bankruptcy is considered low [20]. Market Trends and Data - The home appliance sector saw a weekly increase of 1.7%, with specific segments like white goods and black goods showing gains of 2.0% and 0.1%, respectively [21]. - The report also notes fluctuations in raw material prices, with LME copper and aluminum increasing by 5.83% and 1.38% week-on-week [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses optimism about the acceleration of the commercial aerospace industry, particularly following the successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket, which is China's first reusable liquid oxygen-methane rocket to achieve orbit. This breakthrough is expected to significantly reduce launch costs and enhance satellite deployment capabilities [44][45]. - The report highlights that the military industry is poised for strong demand recovery in 2026, driven by multiple catalysts including the nearing completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the centenary of the military [45]. - The report notes that the current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the military industry index is 69.33, indicating a high valuation but also a strong recovery expectation for the industry [45]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From December 1 to December 5, the Shenwan Military Index rose by 2.82%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which increased by 1.28%, resulting in a relative excess return of 1.54 percentage points [8][15]. - The military index has increased by 17.8% since 2025, compared to a 16.51% rise in the CSI 300 Index, indicating a relative outperformance of 1.29 percentage points [17]. Key Developments - The successful launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket and the hosting of the 2025 Satellite Internet Industry Ecosystem Conference are significant events that have boosted the commercial aerospace sector [44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of reusable rocket technology in overcoming industry bottlenecks and transitioning from "capacity scarcity" to "scale application" [45]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on various segments within the military industry, including: 1. Land Equipment: Tianqin Equipment, Gaode Infrared, Ligong Navigation, Baiao Intelligent, Changcheng Military [45]. 2. Stealth Materials: Jiachitech, Huaqin Technology [45]. 3. Deep Sea: Western Materials, China Marine Defense [45]. 4. Engines: Aerospace Technology, Hangya Technology, Tunan Co. [45]. 5. AI and Intelligent Systems: Xingtuxinke, Aerospace Electronics [45].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [59]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of Japan's potential complete halt of photoresist exports to China, which could affect the semiconductor industry as Japan dominates the global photoresist market with a 95% share [4][32]. - The report also discusses the successful IPO of "Moore Threads," the first domestic GPU company, which saw its stock price surge by 468.78% on its debut, reflecting strong investor interest and potential growth in the AI and high-performance computing sectors [4][39]. - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing rapid domestic production acceleration, with key companies like Tongcheng New Materials and Huate Gas being highlighted for their roles in import substitution and innovation [4][9]. Market Overview - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 5015.17 points, up 0.49% week-on-week, with notable performers including Double Star New Materials (up 21.79%) and Tongcheng New Materials (up 7.9%) [3][14]. - The semiconductor materials index decreased slightly by 0.07%, while the display device materials index increased by 6.92%, indicating mixed performance across sub-sectors [3][14]. Recent Industry Trends - The report tracks recent industry developments, including the IPO preparations of Zhuhai Guoneng New Materials, which aims to expand its product offerings in high-frequency and high-speed copper-clad laminates [32][33]. - The introduction of Millad ClearX™ 9000, a new generation of polypropylene clarifying agent by Milliken, sets a new industry standard for transparency in various applications [37]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies like Tongcheng New Materials for their progress in import substitution, Huate Gas for its integrated industrial chain, and Anji Technology and Dinglong Co. for their roles in the semiconductor supply chain [4][9][39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [7]. Core Views - The report highlights the strong competitiveness of domestic tire companies and suggests focusing on scarce growth targets within the tire sector [4]. - It anticipates a gradual recovery in consumer electronics, recommending attention to upstream material companies [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of certain cyclical industries and the potential for inventory destocking to lead to a bottom reversal [5]. - It notes the positive outlook for leading chemical companies as the economy improves and demand recovers, suggesting that these companies will benefit significantly [9]. - The report also points out supply disruptions in vitamin products, particularly due to BASF's announcement regarding vitamin A and E supply issues [9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the ChiNext Index increased by 1.86%. The CSI 300 Index saw a rise of 1.28%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index fell by 0.47%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index increased by 0.13% [15]. - The top five performing sub-industries in the chemical sector included tires (6.31%), soda ash (3.33%), rubber additives (3.28%), potassium fertilizer (2.2%), and modified plastics (1.68%). The bottom five were organic silicon (-4.55%), nylon (-2.3%), other chemical raw materials (-1.71%), other chemical products III (-1.37%), and viscose (-1.34%) [18]. Key Industry Dynamics - Hunstman announced a price increase of €350/ton for all MDI products in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, effective immediately due to ongoing pressures from raw material, energy, and logistics costs [3]. - Brazil initiated an anti-dumping investigation against Chinese butyl acrylate, which may impact trade dynamics in the chemical sector [3]. Investment Themes - **Tires**: Domestic tire companies are noted for their strong competitive position, with specific companies like Sailun, Senqcia, General Tire, and Linglong Tire recommended for attention [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A recovery in demand is expected, with upstream material companies in the panel supply chain highlighted for potential benefits [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: The report suggests focusing on industries with strong resilience and potential for inventory destocking, particularly in phosphate and fluorine chemicals [5]. - **Leading Chemical Companies**: As the economy improves, leading companies like Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy are expected to benefit from demand recovery and price stabilization [9]. - **Vitamins**: Supply disruptions in vitamin A and E due to BASF's announcement are noted, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Hope Liuhe recommended for monitoring [9].

行 家用电器 2025 年 12 月 07 日 业 研 究 家用电器 黑五销售额创纪录；iRobot 面临破产——25W48 周观点 投资要点： 黑五销售额创纪录，消费分化趋势显著 行 业 定 期 报 告 黑五网一销售额创纪录，线上增速远超线下。根据亿恩网、Adobe Analytics 数据，网络购物周（感恩节至网络星期一五天）总线上销售 额达 442 亿美元，同比增长 7.7%，其中黑色星期五线上销售额创纪录 达 118 亿美元，同比增长 9.1%，网络星期一线上销售额达 142.5 亿美 元，同比增长 7.1%。根据 21 世纪经济报道、Mastercard SpendingPulse， 美国黑五当天零售总销售（剔除汽车）同比增长 4.1%，其中电商渠道 增长 10.4%，线下门店销售增长 1.7%。根据出海网，黑五期间，玩具、 电子产品及运动用品领跑热卖榜单，乐高、宝可梦卡牌、任天堂 Switch、 PS5、AirPods、KitchenAid 等传统节日热销商品表现抢眼。 清洁电器黑五表现亮眼。根据石头科技黑五战报：1）欧洲：扫地 机全渠道销量达 39 万台，同比+41%，洗地机全渠道销量同比+36 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights a tight supply of wood chips leading to an increase in pulp prices, with Jin Ying Group announcing a $20/ton increase for hardwood pulp in Asia for December. The anticipated shutdown of certain softwood pulp lines in Canada has halted the decline in softwood pulp prices. This price increase is expected to support the cost structure for wood pulp companies, with a continued recommendation for Sun Paper [3][7] - According to Counterpoint Research, Apple's smartphone shipments in October increased by 12% year-on-year, achieving a market share of 24.2%, the highest monthly global market share on record. The report recommends Yutong Technology based on this growth [3][7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, with an index increase of 1.86% compared to the 1.28% increase in the CSI 300 index for the week ending December 5, 2025 [13] - Within the light industry, the packaging and printing index rose by 3.96%, while the paper index increased by 1.18% [13] 2. Home Furnishing - In October, residential construction area decreased by 31.1% year-on-year, with cumulative sales of residential properties from January to October down by 7% [30] - Furniture retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 9.6% in October, but furniture exports fell by 12.7% [34] 3. Paper and Packaging - As of December 5, 2025, prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with white cardboard prices up by 10 CNY/ton and boxboard prices up by 15 CNY/ton [39] - The report notes a decline in waste paper prices, with the average price for waste yellow board at 1909 CNY/ton [52] 4. Consumer Goods - The report indicates that the fourth quarter is a peak season for e-commerce sales, with recommendations for companies in the personal care sector to expand their marketing channels [109] - The report also highlights the performance of the stationery sector, with a recommendation for Morning Glory Co., which is expected to see a recovery in operations [109] 5. New Tobacco Products - The EU is discussing revisions to the Tobacco Tax Directive, which could significantly increase taxes on tobacco and nicotine products, potentially impacting the industry [6] - The report suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International, which is expected to benefit from the growing market for heated tobacco products [6] 6. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the industry index declining by 1.6% [23] - The report notes increased demand for warm and sports apparel due to colder weather, recommending companies like Anta and Li Ning [23]

- The report tracks the basis of major indices' next-month contracts compared to the indices themselves[15][17][20] - The basis of major index futures remains at a low level, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 showing no significant discount, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 still have some discount[20] - The structure of index futures basis reflects market expectations for future trends, with a premium indicating bullish sentiment and a discount possibly indicating pessimism or liquidity tightness[21] - The average discount ratio is basically flat compared to the previous month, reflecting a neutral sentiment among index futures market investors towards the stock market[27] - The implied yield of the 10-year treasury futures is 1.74%, lower than the corresponding spot yield of 1.83%, indicating optimistic sentiment among investors towards the bond market[37] - The structure of treasury futures basis reflects market expectations for future interest rate trends, with a premium indicating expected interest rate decline (bond price rise) and a discount indicating expected interest rate rise (bond price fall)[41] - The VIX index of major options reflects market expectations for stock market volatility over the next 30 days[47] - The PCR (Put/Call Ratio) of options holdings is an indicator of market sentiment, with a rising PCR indicating relatively good market sentiment[59] - The PCR of 300ETF options and 50ETF options increased in November, indicating positive market sentiment[65]

行 业 研 究 煤炭 2025 年 12 月 06 日 需求不佳库存累积，煤价延续弱势 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 785 元/吨， 周环比-31 元/吨，内蒙、山西、陕西产地价小跌。截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 551.2 万吨，环比+1.2 万吨，年 同比-7.5%。本周电厂日耗微涨，电厂库存小涨，秦港库存大涨，截至 12 月 1 日，动力煤库存指数为 201.4（+9.9）。非电方面，甲醇、尿素 开工率分别为 89.1%（持平）和 81.8%（-1.9pct），仍处于历史同期偏 高水平。 焦煤 截至 12 月 5 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1630 元/吨，周环比-40 元/ 吨，山西产地价大跌，河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 12 月 5 日，523 家样本矿山精煤日均产量 75.4 万吨（-1.0 万吨），年同比-7.0%，532 家精煤库存 247 万吨（+23.1 万吨），年同比-26.6%；日均铁水产量 234.6 万吨（-1.6 万吨），年同比+0.4%。截至 11 ...