Group 1 - The report highlights that US stocks faced dual pressures from debt risks and escalating tariffs, leading to a decline across major indices, with the S&P 500 down by 2.61% [2][8] - The report notes a significant rise in the 30-year US Treasury yield, surpassing 5%, indicating market concerns regarding US sovereign credit risk and long-term inflation [2][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inflation and other key economic data, as the potential implementation of tariffs on June 1 could further pressure US stocks [2][8] Group 2 - The report indicates mixed performance in global major asset classes, with NYMEX platinum showing the highest increase at 10.22%, while the S&P 500 experienced the largest decline at 2.61% [3][29] - In the equity market, the Hang Seng Index recorded the highest gain at 1.10%, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all faced declines [3][34] - The report details sector performance, noting that the materials sector in the US saw a slight increase of 0.10%, while the real estate sector faced the largest decline at 3.55% [3][40] Group 3 - The report provides updates on key US economic data, including a decline in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for April to -1%, and an increase in new home sales to an annualized rate of 743,000 units [2][8] - The report mentions that the US manufacturing and services PMIs for May both exceeded previous values and expectations, both standing at 52.3 [2][8] - The report highlights that existing home sales in the US for April were annualized at 4 million units, slightly below previous and expected values [2][8]

Group 1: Macro and Industry Policy Overview - The report highlights a focus on financial institutional openness, the integration of artificial intelligence, and coordinated macroeconomic regulation, with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Science and Technology promoting the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative to empower the real economy [1][9]. - Key industries such as automotive, energy, and telecommunications are undergoing transformation and upgrades, while capital markets show structural differentiation, with sectors like pharmaceuticals, gold and jewelry, Contract Research Organizations (CRO), antibiotics, and new energy vehicles performing well [1][9]. - The report notes a mixed performance in A-share markets, with the top five sectors showing gains, including pharmaceuticals (+2.20%) and automotive (+1.27%), while sectors like software services (-3.25%) and semiconductors (-2.04%) faced declines [1][24]. Group 2: Financial Sector Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is enhancing the top-level design for financial openness, aiming to improve transparency and predictability in cross-border financial services, and optimize mechanisms for qualified foreign investors [10]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has approved the participation of New China Life Insurance in the third batch of long-term investment reforms, indicating a commitment to support the healthy development of capital markets [11]. Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - The report mentions the expansion of the "two certificates in one" reform pilot for imported vehicles to Huangpu Customs, effective June 1, 2025, aimed at improving import efficiency [15]. - A new group standard for all-solid-state batteries has been released, defining the technology and providing a basis for industry application and development [15]. Group 4: Artificial Intelligence Sector - The report discusses a recent dialogue between China and the UK on artificial intelligence, emphasizing cooperation and the promotion of healthy and orderly development in the sector [16]. - The NDRC is actively promoting the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, with significant progress in the application of AI across various industries, indicating a growing market for AI-enabled products [17]. Group 5: Real Estate and Financial Policy - The People's Bank of China has lowered the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) to 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively, to support the real estate sector and stimulate economic growth [20]. - The report indicates that the financial sector is focused on supporting effective financing needs of the real economy, particularly in technology innovation and consumption [20]. Group 6: Telecommunications Industry Goals - The report outlines the goals for IPv6 deployment by 2025, aiming for 850 million active users and significant increases in IoT connections, indicating a push towards advanced telecommunications infrastructure [21].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][69] Core Views - The report highlights that the real estate market is under pressure, with significant declines in development investment and new construction areas. In the first four months of 2025, real estate development investment was CNY 27,730 billion, down 10.3% year-on-year, and new construction area decreased by 23.8% [3][13] - The recent reduction in LPR rates by 10 basis points is expected to help stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on urban infrastructure and renovation of existing buildings [3][13] - Short-term and medium-term outlooks suggest that the easing of credit risks in the real estate sector may benefit the building materials sector, with expectations of policy support to stabilize housing prices and transaction volumes [3][6][13] Summary by Sections Recent Market Data - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement was CNY 380.5 per ton, a decrease of 1.1% week-on-week and a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [4][14] - The price of glass (5.00mm) was CNY 1,237.1 per ton, down 0.9% week-on-week and down 26.0% year-on-year [22][24] Sector Performance - The construction materials index fell by 1.1%, with sub-sectors showing mixed performance. Pipe manufacturing increased by 1.16%, while glass manufacturing decreased by 2.38% [5][54] - The report suggests that the building materials sector's fundamentals have further deteriorated compared to the end of 2022, but the space for further decline is limited [6][54] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines for investment: high-quality companies benefiting from renovation, undervalued stocks with credit risk relief, and leading cyclical building materials companies [6][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, bond yields are likely to remain volatile until a breakthrough factor emerges. Without significant easing of funding rates or a continuous rise in risk appetite and fundamental data, there is neither a basis for a sharp decline nor a strong impetus for a sharp increase in bond yields [2][15][39]. - Short - term interest rates have limited downward space without further easing of funding rates. Certificates of deposit and short - term credit bonds have coupon value but limited downward space and are suitable for holding. Long - term interest rates may decline slightly along with short - term credit bonds if favorable factors for the bond market appear, but the space is limited, and the lower limit of the 10Y Treasury yield is around 1.6% [2][16][17]. - For credit bonds, the carry trade strategy at the 2 - 3Y short - end can continue. Whether to use 4 - 5Y perpetual bonds for trading depends on the easing of funding rates. For general credit bonds over 4 - 5Y and perpetual bonds over 5Y, they can be held for coupon income [17][41][96]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - In the past week, the bond market was generally volatile, with long - term bonds performing slightly better than short - term bonds and credit bonds better than interest - rate bonds. Although short - term interest rates had limited downward space due to funding rates, the long - end and credit with relatively high yields declined slightly [30][33]. 3.2 Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint 3.2.1 Bond Market Waiting for a Breakthrough: What Are the Relative Opportunities? - Short - term interest rates are difficult to decline because there are few short - term positive factors after the double - rate cut and deposit rate reduction. Currently, DR007 is slightly below 1.6%, R007 fluctuates around 1.6%, short - term Treasuries are around 1.5%, short - term policy bank bonds are around 1.6%, 1Y CD rates are at 1.7%, and 2 - 3Y credit bond yields are slightly above 1.8% [16][40][95]. - Long - term interest rates are not cheaply priced. If there are favorable factors such as appropriate easing of funds or a decline in risk appetite, long - term bonds may decline slightly along with short - term credit bonds, but the space is limited [17][41][96]. - For investment portfolios, an offensive strategy can consider a bullet - shaped portfolio, while a conservative strategy can choose a coupon + small - scale long - term interest - rate trading portfolio. For bond selection, in the long - term interest - rate bond segment, 250210 and 2500002 are recommended for short - term trading, and some bonds with higher yields such as 240017 have odds but need to be observed [21][42][107]. 3.2.2 From the Comparison of Major Asset Classes, Bonds Have No Advantage - Horizontally, the relative cost - effectiveness of bond assets is not high. Bonds have high prices, low interest rates, and an overall expensive valuation level, with a relatively flat yield curve [55]. - Vertically, the inverse of the PE ratio of the CSI 300 minus the 10 - year Treasury yield is 6.25, at the 79% percentile of the past five years; the dividend yield of the CSI 300 divided by the 10 - year Treasury yield is 2.00, at the 96% percentile of the past five years. The stock market is still relatively cheap compared to the bond market [55][58]. 3.2.3 The Interest - Rate Forecast Model Suggests the Bond Market Is Slightly Bullish - According to the dynamic NS model, on May 23, the model predicts that the bond market will be slightly bullish. The 10 - year Treasury yield on May 23 was 1.72%, and it is predicted to remain around 1.70% in the next month. The model's historical accuracy in predicting the monthly change direction since 2010 is around 65% - 70%. It also suggests that the yield curve will steepen, and the 6 - 8Y policy bank bonds are slightly better than Treasuries [63]. 3.2.4 The Long - Short Ratio of Treasury Futures Is at a Low Level - The long - short ratio of Treasury futures has changed little recently and has been at a low level, indicating the possibility of a rebound in Treasury futures [69]. 3.3 Comparison of the Cost - Effectiveness of Interest - Rate Bond Selection 3.3.1 The Steepness of the Yield Curve Has Changed Little - In the past week, the short - end was volatile, and the long - end rose due to bond replacement, causing the yield curve to steepen slightly. The Treasury term spread (10 - 1Y) increased by 4BP to around 27BP [73]. 3.3.2 Bond Selection Recommendations - From the perspective of static curve and holding cost - effectiveness, for Treasuries, 9 - 10Y can be selected; for policy bank bonds, 9 - 10Y can be selected; for Agricultural Development Bank bonds, 9 - 10Y can be selected; and for Export - Import Bank bonds, 10Y can be selected [100]. - For 10 - year policy bank bonds, the spread between 250205 and 250210 is around 3BP. 250210 may become the main bond in the future, and short - term trading can consider both, while long - term holding is recommended for 250210. For 10 - year Treasuries, 250004 is expected to remain the main bond, and 250009 has a low chance of becoming the main bond. For 30 - year Treasuries, 2500002 may become the main bond in the future, and when the spread between new and old bonds widens, buying old bonds is more cost - effective [101][102][103]. 3.4 Analysis of Treasury Futures Prices and Strategies - Unilateral dimension: The 2509 contract is reasonably priced. The IRR level is still higher than the funding rate and CD rate but has declined. The short - selling power of futures may decrease, and there is a possibility of a rebound. Investors can choose the TL/TF2506 contract to bet on the rebound. The TS contract is expected to be weak, and its rebound depends on whether the funds are unexpectedly loose [28][53]. - Curve trading dimension: The steepness of the yield curve will not change significantly, and the space for curve trading is limited in the short term. Investors are advised to take profits in time [29][53]. - Alternative futures strategy: The "coupon" of the strategy of going long on 2Y credit and shorting TS2509 has dropped to around 2.2 - 2.3%, which still has holding value and is suitable for an absolute - return investment approach [29][54].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][67] Core Views - The core view emphasizes that the military industry is a national-level essential consumption sector, with strong domestic and international demand expected from 2025 to 2027 due to various catalysts [4][43] - The report highlights a significant improvement in the funding landscape, with a notable increase in passive fund sizes and ETF inflows, indicating a positive outlook for the military sector [3][43] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the military index is 64.24, with a percentile rank of 87.06%, suggesting a high allocation value at this time [3][43] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The military index (801740) decreased by 0.91% from May 19 to May 23, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.18%, resulting in an underperformance of 0.73 percentage points [10][15] - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has decreased by 0.24%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has dropped by 1.34% [17][10] - Various sub-sectors within the military industry experienced declines, with the engine and commercial aerospace sectors showing particularly poor performance [21][10] 2. Funding and Valuation - There was a significant net inflow of 2.749 billion yuan into military ETFs during the week, indicating a trend of net inflows despite the index decline [28][3] - The military sector's valuation remains attractive, with a current TTM P/E ratio of 64.26, slightly down from the previous week, but still indicating a favorable investment opportunity [34][3] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report strongly recommends focusing on three main lines: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-sufficiency [4][44] - Specific companies to watch include those involved in land equipment, components, aerospace, and information technology upgrades for domestic trade, as well as companies engaged in foreign trade and self-sufficiency initiatives [4][44][45]

策 略 研 究 华福证券 部分主题突破后仍维持形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 部分主题突破后仍维持形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速的主 题指数数量分别有 1、29、7、1 只。其中，1 只见底形态的主题指数属于 建筑材料行业；而 29 只突破形态的主题指数中，行业多为有色金属（6 只） 和国防军工（5 只）。7 只主升形态的主题指数中包含医药生物行业（5 只） 和有色金属行业（2 只），而 1 只加速形态的主题指数属于食品饮料行业。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题的交易热度持续下降，对应龙头股收盘价 仍低于 MA60 的位置。我们对人形机器人、 ...

基础化工 2025 年 05 月 25 日 行 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：霍尼韦尔宣布两大超百亿收购和出 售，2025 年一季度内存支出大增 57% 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 3578.75 点，环比下跌 1.58%。 其中，涨幅前五的有阳谷华泰(32.05%)、润阳科技(24.74%)、瑞联新材(7.09%)、 确成股份(6.88%)、浙江众成(4.88%)；跌幅前五的有斯迪克(-10.74%)、凯盛科 技(-8.71%)、凯赛生物(-6.19%)、金丹科技(-5.9%)、联瑞新材(-5.06%)。六个子 行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 5918.39 点，环比下跌 1.63%；申 万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1027.17 点，环比下跌 1.83%；中信三级行 业有机硅材料指数收报 5774.61 点，环比下跌 4.04%；中信三级行业碳纤维指 数收报 1198.98 点，环比下跌 4.7%；中信三级行业锂电指数收报 1667.39 点， 环比下跌 2.21%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 1825.6 点，环比下跌 1.25 ...

医药生物 2025 年 05 月 25 日 行 业 研 究 入 特发性肺纤维化 IPF：百亿市场潜力，建议关注 伊非尼酮（东阳光长江药业） 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2025 年 5 月 19 日- 2025 年 5 月 23 日）中信医药指 数上涨 1.92%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.1pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 2 位；2025 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 4.7%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 6.0pct，在中信行业分类中排名第 5 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：三生国建 （+99.96%）、海辰药业（+51.55%）、舒泰神（+49.23%）、永安药业（+45.32%）、 一心堂（+37.95%）。 特发性肺纤维化：研发进展沉寂近十年，BI PDE4B 实现突破，建议 关注相关管线价值。1）特发性肺纤维化为病因不明的罕见病：最终会导致 呼吸衰竭而死亡，患者诊断后中位生存期仅 2-3 年；2）目前 IPF 治疗缺乏 有效治疗手段：全球获批药物仅两款，吡非尼酮及尼达尼布，全球市场规 模超过 40 亿美元。尼达尼布中国专利到期，海外专利预计 26 年到期，吡 非尼酮专利已 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The light industry manufacturing sector is experiencing price increases, with wood pulp paper companies announcing price hikes for various paper products starting from May 21, 2025 [2] - The report highlights a positive outlook for new consumption sub-sectors, including personal care, IP cultural products, new tobacco, smart glasses, and pet-related products [2] - Following the temporary suspension of tariffs between China and the U.S., there is a recommendation to focus on the recovery of the export chain [2] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - In April, residential construction area decreased by 26% year-on-year, and residential sales area fell by 3.5% year-on-year [6] - Retail sales of furniture increased by 26.9% year-on-year in April, while sales in building materials and home furnishing markets decreased by 2.52% [6][39] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the customized home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home and Sophia [6] Paper and Packaging - As of May 23, 2025, prices for various paper products show mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5162.5 CNY/ton and boxboard paper at 3525.4 CNY/ton [6][50] - The report recommends companies with integrated wood pulp and paper operations, such as Sun Paper, and those with strong domestic sales expectations like Huawang Technology [6] - The report notes a 7.6% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment in the paper industry for the first four months of 2025 [6][64] Light Industry Consumption - The approval of new national standards for disposable sanitary products is expected to benefit compliant leading brands [6] - The report highlights the strong performance of personal care e-commerce in April and suggests focusing on brands like Dengkang Oral Care and Baiya [6] - The report also mentions the positive outlook for cultural products, recommending companies like Morning Glory [6] Export Chain - In April, exports of certain products like thermos cups increased by 7.34%, while pet food exports decreased by 9.08% [6] - The report anticipates a significant effect from the temporary suspension of tariffs, benefiting companies with robust domestic and international production capabilities [6] New Tobacco - The report notes the potential for new tobacco products to gain traction as international tobacco companies launch HNB products [6] - It recommends focusing on leading companies in the new tobacco sector, such as Smoore International, which has strong partnerships with major clients [6] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is also noted for outperforming the market, with specific companies showing significant stock price increases [6][29] - The report suggests monitoring companies like Anta and Li Ning in the sportswear segment [6]

行 业 研 究 汽车 2025 年 05 月 25 日 小鹏汽车预计 Q4 盈利 小米 YU7 发布 究 报 涨跌幅后五名：兆丰股份、日盈电子、美力科技、嵘泰股份、双 林股份。 投资要点： 本周专题：小鹏汽车预计 Q4 盈利 小米 YU7 发布 行 业 定 期 报 告 5 月 21 日，小鹏汽车发布 2025 年第一季度财报。小鹏汽车第一季 度营收 158.1 亿元，同比增长 141.5%；净亏损 6.6 亿元，2024 年第四 季度净亏损 13.3 亿元，较上一季度亏损收窄；总交付量 94008 辆，同 比增加 330.8%；毛利率为 15.6%，2024 年同期为 12.9%，而 2024 年第 四季度为 14.4%。 AI+汽车、人形机器人与汽车产业深度的融合以及海外市场，将成 为小鹏汽车的三条增长曲线。小鹏汽车预计在 2025 年实现销量同比翻 倍以上的增长，并在第四季度实现盈利，全年达到规模性自由现金流 转正。 5 月 22 日，小米汽车发布第二款新车小米 YU7，该车定位豪华高 性能 SUV，将在 7 月份正式上市。小米 YU7 延续了 SU7 的家族设计 语言，同时针对 SUV 车型的特点进行了 ...