证券研究报告 中国平安 (2318 HK/601318 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 拟发行可转债，NBV 或稳健增长 | 华泰研究 | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 保险 | 6 月 4 日中国平安出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司对 4 日拟 发行 H 股可转债的公告进行介绍，阐述了当前业务发展状况并进行前景展望。 寿险：NBV 有望稳健增长 分渠道看，今年以来公司银保渠道业务快速增长，1Q25 渠道 NBV 同比强 劲增长 171%。2023 年银保渠道推行"报行合一"，2024 年取消了一家银 行网点只能销售三家保险公司产品的"一对三"限制，银保渠道竞争环境持 续优化，平安大力发展银保渠道，我们认为公司合作的银行网点数量有望持 续提升。代理人渠道增长亦保持韧性，1Q25 在价值率提升的驱动下，渠道 NBV 同比增长 12%。我们认为，今年 9 月份行业预定利率或再次下调，有 望提升产品盈利性并带动销售动能改善。考虑到产品利润率有望持续改善以 及银保渠道强劲销售态势，我们预计 2025 全 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 28.00 [8] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in cargo volume within the Asian region despite fluctuating tariff policies since April. The cargo volume is expected to remain stable and improve in April and May [1] - The easing of tariffs between China and the US in mid-May led to a surge in shipping rates for routes to the US, driven by concentrated shipments from cargo owners [3] - The company is optimistic about the long-term growth potential in cargo volume due to regional market dynamics and the reshaping of industries, which will enhance the circulation of raw materials, semi-finished, and finished products [1][5] Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The Southeast Asian market has benefited from the easing of tariffs, with cargo volume and shipping rates showing a positive trend since April 10. The average container shipping price index for Southeast Asia increased by 6.9% in April and decreased by 6.1% in May, with year-on-year increases of 60.1% and 2.3% respectively [2] - The average container shipping price index for Asia increased by 2.3% month-on-month in April, with a year-on-year increase of 24.0% [2] Shipping Rates and Capacity - The tightening of capacity for small and medium-sized container ships has led to an increase in charter rates, with a 78.9% year-on-year rise in the average charter rate for 1,000 TEU container ships from January to April 2025 [4] - As of May, the global new container ship orders accounted for 29.4% of existing capacity, with large container ships (over 8,000 TEU) having a higher order ratio of 46.0% compared to smaller vessels [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of USD 1.09 billion, USD 905.56 million, and USD 1.10 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The revenue projections for the same years are USD 3.27 billion, USD 3.10 billion, and USD 3.42 billion [5][7] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is USD 0.40, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 39.78% [7][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][8]. Core Views - The company is characterized as a growth-oriented and stable operator in the copper mining sector, with recent discussions on key events such as the spin-off listing in Hong Kong, acquisition of Zangge Mining, and the suspension of operations at the Kamoa Copper Mine [1]. - The spin-off of Zijin Gold International aims to create an independent financing platform and enhance the valuation of gold assets, with a planned issuance of up to 15% of the total share capital [2]. - The completion of the acquisition of control over Zangge Mining (increased stake to 26.18%) is expected to facilitate further control over the Jilong Copper Mine and improve operational synergies in the salt lake sector [3]. - The Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine has experienced temporary production suspension due to seismic activity, but the impact on the company's overall production and profits is considered limited [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits for the years 2025 to 2027 to be RMB 44 billion, RMB 46.5 billion, and RMB 51.8 billion respectively, with a projected revenue increase of 13.73% in 2025 [5][7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.52, with a return on equity (ROE) projected at 26.1% [7][8]. - The report provides a valuation based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10/20/13 for 2025, with target prices set at RMB 22.49 and HKD 21.73 for A/H shares [5][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of HKD 28.50 [7]. Core Views - The company emphasizes that despite short-term performance pressure due to a warm winter and tariff impacts leading to a slight decline in retail gas volume, it aims to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks [1]. - The report suggests that the increase in sustainable profit contribution and improved free cash flow will lead to a revaluation of the company's value, indicating a potential buying opportunity after recent price corrections [1]. Summary by Sections Retail Gas Volume and Margin Improvement - From January to April, the company's retail gas volume experienced a slight year-on-year decline, which was less than the national average decline of 2.2%. Industrial gas volume decreased due to tariff impacts on the export industry, while residential gas volume grew, supported by an increase in connected users. However, the average household gas consumption declined due to the warm winter [2]. - The overall gross margin improved slightly year-on-year, with better recovery in residential gross margin compared to the overall margin, and stable gross margin in industrial and commercial sectors. LNG spot prices have decreased, which is expected to further lower procurement costs in 2025 [2]. Impact of Real Estate Downturn and Service Segmentation - The company reported a year-on-year decline in new residential connections from January to April, with expectations of a 20% decrease in new home connections for 2025. The proportion of old home renovations is expected to rise to 30%, which may continue to suppress profit margins [3]. - There is a divergence in performance between comprehensive energy and comprehensive services, with comprehensive energy revenue growing year-on-year, while comprehensive services remained flat due to public sentiment impacts and government oversight [3]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure Optimization - The company has officially launched a share buyback plan, intending to repurchase up to 3% of its shares, which would require approximately HKD 1.5 billion based on the closing price on June 4. The company has also committed to increasing the dividend payout ratio for 2025, with total dividend expenditure expected to be no less than HKD 2.1 billion if the DPS remains flat year-on-year [4]. - Capital expenditures are being optimized, with regular expenditures directed towards comprehensive energy, while there is limited room for reducing expenditures related to pipeline replacement and new connections [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at HKD 4.4 billion, HKD 4.9 billion, and HKD 5.5 billion respectively, and EPS projected at HKD 1.90, HKD 2.13, and HKD 2.38, reflecting a CAGR of 10% over three years [5]. - The target price of HKD 28.50 is based on a 15x PE for 2025E, which is above the five-year historical average of 12x PE. The increasing contribution of sustainable business profits is expected to reduce performance uncertainty and lead to a revaluation of the company's value [5][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 25.60 [9]. Core Views - The company is focusing on optimizing its liability costs and adjusting its asset structure to support the real economy. It aims to reduce low-yield assets and increase general loan issuance, particularly in green, technology, and high-end manufacturing sectors [2][3]. - The company expects a year-on-year decline in new non-performing loans and impairment provisions for the current year [4]. - The establishment of a financial AIC (Asset Investment Company) is expected to enhance the company's bond trading capabilities and integrate group resources to provide comprehensive financial services [3]. Summary by Sections Liability Cost Optimization - The company anticipates further optimization of its liability costs, particularly as higher-cost liabilities mature and are replaced with lower-cost ones. This is expected to improve the cost of liabilities and mitigate the downward pressure on loan pricing, with an estimated annual decline in net interest margin of about 10 basis points [2]. Asset Quality - The asset quality remains stable, with a focus on key areas such as corporate real estate, credit cards, and local government financing platforms. The company expects the peak of new non-performing loans in these areas to have passed, with ongoing monitoring of potential pressures in retail consumer loans and operating loans [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at RMB 774 billion, RMB 782 billion, and RMB 801 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 1.1%, and 2.5% [5]. - The estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is RMB 39.39, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.60 times. The target PB for 2025 is set at 0.65 times, reflecting a clear strategic goal and potential for valuation premium [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 173.70 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing sustained demand growth, particularly in the AIoT sector, with significant opportunities in smart home applications and AI toys [2][4]. - The company plans to raise funds through a private placement to enhance its product lineup, focusing on Wi-Fi 7 and AI edge chips, which will support long-term growth [4][5]. - The developer ecosystem is thriving, with over 140,000 open-source projects on GitHub, indicating strong community engagement and innovation [3]. Summary by Sections Demand and Growth - In Q1 2025, the company reported a 30% year-on-year revenue growth in the smart home sector, with faster growth in industrial, energy, and healthcare markets [2]. - The company anticipates continued demand growth in Q2, driven by new applications such as AI toys [2]. Product Development and Strategy - The company is focused on a "processing + connectivity" strategy, with ongoing product upgrades and a commitment to maintaining a gross margin target of 40% [2][5]. - New products, including the P4, are entering mass production, while older products like ESP8266/ESP32 are seeing extended lifecycles due to high customer loyalty [2]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 2,632 million in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 461.47 million, reflecting a 36% increase from the previous year [7]. - The expected EPS for 2025 is RMB 2.94, with a projected net profit margin of 17.53% [7]. Capital Raising and Investment - The company plans to raise up to RMB 1.778 billion through a private placement, allocating funds for Wi-Fi router chips, AI edge chips, and the construction of a research center [4]. Market Position - The company aims to maintain its leading position in the Wi-Fi MCU market and expects the revenue contribution from smart home products to continue evolving [2].

证券研究报告 南京银行 (601009 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 业绩稳健增长，转债强赎可期 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地 | 区域性银行 | 6 月 4 日南京银行出席我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，核心要点包括：1） 预计全年信贷同比多增，但零售需求与风险改善趋势仍待观察；2）存款迎 重定价高峰，负债成本持续优化；3）转债转股可期，夯实公司资本。 信贷有力投放，资产质量稳健 南京银行 24 年/25Q1 贷款同比+14.3%/+14.7%，新增贷款 1573/897 亿元。 Q1 信贷有力投放，为全年奠定较好基础，公司预计能够顺利完成目标，实 现同比多增。年初以来零售投放回暖，主要系按揭增势较好。消费贷方面， 南银法巴在两年快速增长后逐步进入稳定期，平台贷款方面更加谨慎，今年 整体会在管控风险的前提下进行零售投放安排。资产质量表现看，公司不良 走势平稳，25Q1 不良率环比持平至 0.83%。零售不良生成短期或仍有波动， 但随存量不良出清，更多核销资源向零售倾斜，25Q1 零 ...

证券研究报告 招商蛇口 (001979 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 拿地力度增强，积极推动证券化 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地 | 房地产开发 | 6 月 4 日招商蛇口出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司就近期 运营情况进行交流，去年四季度以来公司投拓力度显著增强，多 REITs 平 台助力资产证券化，融资成本持续优化，维持"买入"评级。 开发业务：销售降幅收窄，投拓积极性提升 2025 年前 4 月，公司累计销售面积达 205.9 万方，销售额 498.3 亿元，同 比分别-20.06%/-15.29%，销售额降幅较 24 年收窄 10pct。销售均价显著提 升，前四月销售均价为 2.4 万/平，同比增长 6.0%。拿地方面，今年投资强 度显著加强，前 4 月拿地强度逾 50%，较去年的 22%大幅提升。 资管业务：持有物业布局全面，借力 REITs 推进资产证券化 (16) (4) 8 19 31 Jun-24 Oct-24 Feb-25 Jun-25 (%) 招商 ...

证券研究报告 奇富科技-S (3660 HK/QFIN US) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 盈利高质量，贷款质量稳健 | 华泰研究 | | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 6 月 | 05 日│中国香港/美国 | 其他多元金融 | 6 月 4 日奇富科技出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司回顾了 1Q25 的经营情况，并解答了投资者关注的问题。1Q25 需求具有韧性，同 时营销策略持续优化。贷款质量保持健康，C-M2 基本稳定。另外公司重视 股东回报，股份回购持续推进。我们认为公司运营稳健，质量稳定，利润"安 全垫"较为充足，预计 25 年盈利有望进一步提升，维持"买入"评级。 贷款质量保持稳健，盈利质量高 1Q25 C-M2 比例略升至 0.60%（4Q24：0.57%），首日逾期率升至 5.0% （4Q24：4.8%），30 天回款率环比持平于 88.1%。贷款质量仍然维持健康。 基于当前的宏观环境，结合公司谨慎的贷款投放和对风险的重视，我们预计 内年的 C-M2 比例有望大致维持在当前水平。另外 1Q25 的拨备计提率约 4.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5][8]. Core Views - The company is characterized as a growth-oriented and stable operator in the copper mining sector, with recent discussions on key events such as the spin-off listing in Hong Kong, acquisition of藏格矿业, and the temporary shutdown of卡莫阿铜矿 [1]. - The spin-off of the subsidiary, 紫金黄金国际, aims to create an independent financing platform and enhance the valuation of its gold assets, although the completion of this spin-off remains uncertain [2]. - The acquisition of control over藏格矿业 has been completed, increasing the company's stake to 26.18%, which is expected to facilitate better management and integration of operations [3]. - The卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿 has experienced a temporary shutdown due to seismic activity, but the impact on production for 2025 is expected to be limited, with a projected copper output of 520,000 to 580,000 tons [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits for the company to be RMB 44 billion, RMB 46.5 billion, and RMB 51.8 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7]. - Revenue projections for the company are set at RMB 345.3 billion, RMB 368.3 billion, and RMB 390.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a growth rate of 13.73%, 6.67%, and 6.04% [7][18]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of financial ratios, including an expected EPS of RMB 1.52 for 2025 and a projected ROE of 26.1% [7][18]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a target price of RMB 22.49 and HKD 21.73 for the company's A/H shares, based on a cautious valuation approach [5][8]. - The report notes that the average PE ratios for comparable companies in the copper, gold, and zinc sectors are 11, 20, and 14 respectively for 2025 [5][13].