Market Performance - On April 22, the stock market experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3299.76, up by 0.25% [1][2] - The bond market showed increased bullish sentiment, with yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds declining by 1.5 basis points and 2.2 basis points, respectively [2][4] - The commodity market saw gold prices reaching new highs, with New York gold and London gold surpassing $3500 per ounce, while domestic gold rose by 4.13% [2] Bond Market Insights - The bond market sentiment improved, particularly in the long end, with 1-year and 3-year government bond yields decreasing by 0.5 basis points and 0.8 basis points, respectively [4] - The market is anticipating a potential decrease in the MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) interest rate by 10 basis points to a range of 1.7%-2.0%, which is expected to boost bond market sentiment [4] - The average duration of interest rate bond funds was reported at 3.43 years, indicating a cautious approach among investors [4] Equity Market Trends - The equity market's focus is on safety margins and incremental policies, with low valuation stocks performing well while high valuation stocks faced pressure [5][6] - The SW low P/E index rose by 0.45%, while the high P/E index fell by 0.35%, reflecting a shift in investor preference towards lower-risk assets [7] - The real estate and infrastructure sectors showed strength, with the SW real estate and construction materials indices increasing by 0.84% and 1.02%, respectively [8] Policy and Market Expectations - Policy expectations are driving market trends, particularly in the real estate and cross-border payment sectors, with the latter seeing a 2.79% increase in the Wind cross-border payment index [8] - The recent issuance of guidelines for free trade zones has also contributed to positive market sentiment, with related indices rising significantly [8] Hong Kong Market Activity - The Hong Kong market saw the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increase by 0.69% and 0.22%, respectively, with a notable rebound in the metals sector [9] - Southbound capital inflow reached 212.69 billion HKD, indicating strong investor interest in the Hong Kong market [9]

2025年4月22日 证券研究报告|金融工程专题报告 底部扎实，区间运行 —2025年2季度风险溢价预测 金融工程首席分析师：杨国平 SAC NO：S1120520070002 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 1.1 市场风险溢价定义 2 • 大盘市盈率曲线如何变动是研究大盘的关键 • 面临困难：市盈率曲线变动规律复杂，无法直接用于研判市场 • 应对策略：把市盈率曲线转化成更有规律的曲线，且能把握这种规律 • 反变换：有规律的曲线把握了，再通过反变换把握市盈率曲线 • 这种有规律的曲线，我们把它定义为市场风险溢价曲线 • 业绩恒定增长股票价值：P=D/(r-g) – P为股票内在价值，D为每股收益，g为业绩恒定增长率，r为贴现率 – 贴现率=无风险收益率+风险溢价 • 风险溢价=市盈率倒数-无风险收益率+增长率 • 大盘风险溢价=市场市盈率倒数-国债收益率+GDP名义增长率 – 用GDP名义增长率代替上市公司业绩增长率，用国债收益率代替无风险收益率 – 市盈率计算规则：最近4个季度滚动业绩，市场用上证指数季末收盘价 – 国债收益率数据：10年期国债收益率 1.2 风险溢价历史演变 资料来源： Wind、 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [3][40]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates brand dominance in the affordable ready-to-drink beverage sector, supported by an efficient supply chain and the emotional barrier created by the "Snow King" IP [3][40]. - The "Snow King" IP has become a top-tier brand in the IP space, enhancing emotional connections with consumers and improving marketing efficiency [2][34]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 29.58 billion, 33.37 billion, and 36.35 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 5.32 billion, 6.08 billion, and 6.70 billion CNY [3][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report discusses a recent incident involving a store using overnight lemons and oranges, highlighting the consumer's leniency towards the brand due to its efficient supply chain and emotional connection through the "Snow King" IP [1][13]. 2. Brand Dominance in Affordable Ready-to-Drink Beverages - The affordable ready-to-drink beverage market in China is growing rapidly, with a CAGR of 25.6% from 2021 to 2023. The company holds a market share of 32.7% in this segment, significantly leading over competitors [14][22]. 3. Emotional Barrier from "Snow King" IP - The "Snow King" IP was created in 2018 and has been developed through various marketing strategies, enhancing its emotional connection with consumers. The IP has gained high recognition and popularity, contributing to lower customer acquisition costs [2][27][34]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to open 9,000, 8,500, and 8,000 new franchise stores from 2025 to 2027, with a stable closure rate of 4.3%. Revenue and net profit are projected to grow significantly during this period [39][40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit due to volume growth and cost reductions [2][3] - The animal nutrition amino acid segment showed stable performance with improved gross margins despite challenges in the market [4] - New projects and international expansion strategies are being actively pursued, contributing to future growth [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.269 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.36%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.019 billion yuan, up 35.52% year-on-year [2][3] - The decline in revenue was primarily due to lower sales prices of key products despite volume growth [3] Cost and Margin Analysis - The animal nutrition amino acid segment experienced a 5.65% increase in sales volume, with revenue remaining stable and gross margin improving by 7.43 percentage points to 19.65% [4] - The decrease in raw material costs, particularly corn, contributed to the improved margins [4] Project Development and International Strategy - The company invested approximately 2 billion yuan in new projects in 2024, with several projects reaching production [5] - An agreement was signed to acquire assets from a fermentation company, enhancing the company's international presence and product offerings [5][6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 27.739 billion yuan and 30.075 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates also revised [6][7] - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 1.10 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1146.01 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 1.31% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 45.04 billion CNY, an increase of 64.30% year-on-year [2][3] - The feed business showed resilience with a market share increase, while the aquaculture segment turned profitable [3][4] - The company is focusing on a light-asset breeding model and has made significant progress in international markets, with overseas feed sales growing by approximately 40% [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 1146.01 billion CNY, with a year-on-year decline of 1.31%. The feed segment generated 957.75 billion CNY, down 4.82%, while the aquaculture segment saw revenue of 188.26 billion CNY, up 21.52% [2][3] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 256.29 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 10.60%, and a net profit of 12.82 billion CNY, up 48.99% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The feed business accounted for 83.57% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 9.94%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points year-on-year. The aquaculture business contributed 16.43% to total revenue, with a gross margin of 18.28%, up 12.05 percentage points [3] - The company sold 26.52 million tons of feed in 2024, a 9% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in poultry and aquaculture feed sales [3] Growth Strategy - The company is implementing a strategy that includes partnerships with large-scale farmers and food companies to expand market share. The international strategy has led to a notable increase in overseas sales, particularly in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Egypt [3][4] - The aquaculture segment has improved significantly, with the company focusing on shrimp and other specialty aquatic products, leading to a reduction in production costs [4] Profitability Forecast - The company expects revenue growth to continue, with projected revenues of 1288.84 billion CNY in 2025 and 1453.02 billion CNY in 2026. The net profit is forecasted to reach 50.98 billion CNY in 2025 and 55.78 billion CNY in 2026 [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.06 CNY in 2025 and 3.35 CNY in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 for 2025 [6][8]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 21 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：踏空也是风险 | [Table_Title2] | | --- | | 国内市场表现 | 复盘与思考: 4 月 18 日，科技与小微盘领衔，权益指数迎来普涨，债市在没有明显利空的情况下，各期限收益率齐上。 复盘各类资产表现，股市，大盘表现依旧稳定，上证指数、沪深 300 分别上涨 0.45%、0.33%，中证红利指 数小跌 0.14%；部分龙头企业业绩提振下，科技板块表现强势，科创 50、创业板指、恒生科技分别上涨 1.07%、 1.59%、1.90%；股市情绪回升也使中小盘更为受益，中证 1000、中证 2000、万得微盘股指分别上涨 2.07%、 2.29%、1.23%。债市，10 年、30 年国债活跃券收益率分别上行 1.6bp、2.3bp 至 1.66%、1.90%；10 年、30 年 国债期货主力合约分别下跌 0.22%、0.33%。 商品方面，近期美元连续走弱，美元指数已跌破 99 点，叠加特朗普政府有意更换美联储主席人选，加剧了美 元资产的避险情绪，贵金属价格持续破新 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [4]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance shows a revenue of 16.305 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.57%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 469 million yuan, which is an increase of 23.53% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin improved slightly to 12.41%, up 3.21 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure optimization [3]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance consumer electronics, particularly in the XR and smart acoustic sectors, positioning itself for long-term growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 16.305 billion yuan, down 15.57% year-on-year and down 47.92% quarter-on-quarter; net profit attributable to shareholders was 469 million yuan, up 23.53% year-on-year and up 46.59% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company reported an investment income of 144 million yuan from foreign exchange derivatives and joint ventures, a significant increase from a loss of 4 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. Profitability and Costs - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 12.41%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.21 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.11 percentage points [3]. - The operating expense ratio was 10.88%, up 3.28 percentage points year-on-year, with R&D expenses increasing as the company focuses on enhancing its core competitiveness [3]. Growth Drivers - The company is enhancing its core competitiveness through both internal development and external investments, such as acquiring key technology firms [4]. - It has established partnerships with major clients like Meta, Pico, and Sony, capturing 80% of the global mid-to-high-end VR market share as of December 2022 [4]. - The smart acoustic segment is expected to grow due to AI-driven features like real-time translation and health monitoring, with collaborations with leading brands like Apple and Huawei [4]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 99.51 billion, 112.29 billion, and 125.84 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of 3.261 billion, 4.231 billion, and 5.260 billion yuan [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same period are 0.93, 1.21, and 1.51 yuan, with a maintained "Accumulate" rating based on a target price of 21.34 yuan [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.702 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 784 million yuan, up 28.00% year-on-year [2] - The passenger vehicle business experienced rapid growth, with revenue reaching 7.090 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.63%, driven primarily by the performance of new energy vehicles [3] - The company's global expansion strategy has shown significant results, with North American revenue reaching 2.035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.23%, and European revenue at 741 million yuan, up 17.16% [4] - The digital energy segment has accelerated growth, achieving revenue of 1.027 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.44%, with strong performance in data center cooling solutions [5] - The company's profitability continues to improve, with operating cash flow reaching 1.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.84%, and R&D investment of 573 million yuan, up 16.94% [6] - The company is proactively entering emerging fields such as robotics, having secured 10 patents in this area by the end of the reporting period [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 16.030 billion yuan for 2025, 18.883 billion yuan for 2026, and 21.574 billion yuan for 2027, with net profits expected to be 1.048 billion yuan, 1.251 billion yuan, and 1.503 billion yuan respectively [9] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.26 yuan, 1.50 yuan, and 1.80 yuan respectively [11] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 12.6% for 2024, increasing to 15.0% by 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 12.03 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.44%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.472 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.55% [2][3] - The company is a leader in lithium battery structural components, showcasing strong profitability and a high-quality customer base, including major clients like CATL, LG, and Tesla [4][9] - The company is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, with 13 domestic and 3 European bases, enhancing its local supply capabilities [4] - The company is extending its business into the robotics sector, leveraging its expertise in precision manufacturing to create new growth opportunities [5][9] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 12.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.472 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.5% [11] - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 14.87 billion yuan, 18.12 billion yuan, and 21.88 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 23.6%, 21.9%, and 20.7% [9][11] - The projected net profits for the same period are 1.813 billion yuan, 2.196 billion yuan, and 2.671 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.2%, 21.1%, and 21.6% [9][11] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 24.4% in 2024 to 25.1% by 2027 [11] Business Development - The company is focusing on enhancing its robotics business through partnerships and investments in new technologies, which is expected to contribute positively to its performance [5][9] - The company is actively working on expanding its production capabilities, with ongoing projects in Shenzhen and overseas locations such as the United States and Hungary [4]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 21 日 猪肉猪价企稳回升，加强植物新品种保护 [Table_Title2] 农林牧渔行业周报第 14 期 [Table_Summary] 本周观点: 种植产业链：近日，国务院常务会议审议通过了《中华人民共 和国植物新品种保护条例（修订草案）》（以下简称《条 例》）。《条例》深入贯彻落实党中央、国务院关于种业振兴 和知识产权保护的决策部署，认真落实《中华人民共和国种子 法》（以下简称《种子法》）有关要求，对加强种业知识产权 保护、激励育种原始创新具有重要意义，为深入实施种业振兴 行动、加快实现种业科技自立自强提供坚实的法治保障。为切 实做好《条例》的贯彻落实，农业农村部将重点抓好以下几项 工作：加强宣传解读和培训指导；抓紧修订配套规章制度；加 快实施实质性派生品种制度；健全品种保护支撑体系；严格品 种权维权执法。在粮食安全背景下，转基因技术在提升单产方 面具有革命性作用，我们判断转基因商业化进程将继续扩面提 速，以通过提升单产从根本上提升关键品种自给率，同时，农 业农村部强调"加强植物新品种保护，赋能种业创新发展"， 也有利于转基因 ...