证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 21 日 [Table_Title] 兼顾性价比和流动性 [Table_Title2] 信用周观察系列 [Table_Summary] 4月 14-18日，中美关税拉锯战进入中场休息时段，央行整体偏呵护， 资金面维持均衡，债市呈现震荡行情。信用债收益率普遍小幅上行， 信用利差表现分化，3-4 年利差多小幅收窄，7-10 年中高等级利差则 走扩。 从二级成交来看，信用债买盘继续降温，城投债和产业债 TKN 成交占 比和低估值占比均小幅下滑。分评级看，城投债变化不大，产业债成 交则明显下沉，AAA-及以上成交占比由 60%降至 50%。分期限结构 看，城投债和产业债成交均降久期。与此同时，一级市场发行情绪继 续走弱，城投债发行全场倍数 3 倍以上占比下降 10个百分点至 47%， 产业债全场倍数 3 倍以上占比由 26%降至 17%。 4 月以来，理财规模增长 1.7万亿元，但是与往年不同，理财规模回升 并未带动信用债利差快速收窄。原因可能在于，一方面，3 月中下旬 的行情导致信用利差迅速压至低位，性价比有所下降。另一方面，银 行理财今 ...

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 21 日 [Table_Title] 鸡苗价格景气延续，25Q1 业绩同比大幅改善 [Table_Title2] 晓鸣股份(300967) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 300967 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 27.47/8.15 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 37.53 | | 最新收盘价： | 20.01 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 24.97 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 124.79 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 2024 年年报，报告期内，实现营业收入 9.71 亿元，同比增长 16.83%；实现归母净利润 4481.34 万 元，同比扭亏为盈，拟每 10 股派 2.0 元，合计派发现金红利 3713.37 万元。公司发布 2025 年一季报，2025Q1 实现营业收入 3.94 亿元，同比增长 125.09%；实现归母净利润 9902 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with revenue at 473 million yuan, down 2.89% year-on-year, and net profit at 48.2 million yuan, up 38.72% year-on-year [2][3] - The increase in net profit is attributed to several factors, including the temporary shutdown of some production projects, a decrease in raw material costs, and capitalized interest on infrastructure projects leading to lower financial expenses [3] - The price of enoki mushrooms has been continuously declining, prompting the company to adjust production and optimize operations, which helped mitigate overall losses [4] - The company's button mushroom business remains profitable and stable, effectively offsetting losses from the enoki mushroom segment, with revenue from button mushrooms at 1.079 billion yuan, up 7.39% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 34.81% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 473 million yuan, a slight decrease of 2.89% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 48.2 million yuan, an increase of 38.72% year-on-year [2][3] - For the full year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.935 billion yuan, a growth of 0.21%, with enoki mushroom revenue at 838 million yuan, down 8.06%, and button mushroom revenue at 1.079 billion yuan, up 7.39% [4][5] Production and Market Dynamics - The company has adjusted its production strategy in response to the declining prices of enoki mushrooms, which have seen a significant drop of 18% year-on-year to 5.14 yuan/kg in 2024 [4] - The button mushroom segment has a higher market share and profitability due to lower competition and higher barriers to entry, with a gross margin increase of 2.94 percentage points year-on-year [5] Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leading player in the edible mushroom industry, with a projected revenue of 2.118 billion yuan for 2025, down from previous estimates of 2.734 billion yuan [6] - The forecast for net profit in 2025 has been adjusted to 186 million yuan, with EPS revised to 0.47 yuan, maintaining an "Accumulate" rating based on a PE ratio of 16 for 2025 [6]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 21 日 [Table_Title] 鸡苗价格景气延续，25Q1 业绩同比大幅改善 [Table_Title2] 晓鸣股份(300967) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 300967 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 27.47/8.15 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 37.53 | | 最新收盘价： | 20.01 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 24.97 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 124.79 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司发布 2024 年年报，报告期内，实现营业收入 9.71 亿元，同比增长 16.83%；实现归母净利润 4481.34 万 元，同比扭亏为盈，拟每 10 股派 2.0 元，合计派发现金红利 3713.37 万元。公司发布 2025 年一季报，2025Q1 实现营业收入 3.94 亿元，同比增长 125.09%；实现归母净利润 9902 ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 800+发债区县 2024 经济财政债务大盘点 风险提示 财政收入大幅下滑；城投政策收紧；负面事件超预期。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_Summary] ►非重点省份区县 GDP 增速高于重点化债省份 2024 年 GDP 规模在千亿元以上的区县数量达 210 个，主要 分布在江浙粤鲁这种经济大省，数量合计 117 个。从 GDP同 比增速来看，非重点省份表现更好，其发债区县增速中位数 为 5.9%，而重点化债省份的区县增速中位数为 5.4%。 ►多数区县一般公共预算收入增长，但增速放缓 788个已披露2024年一般公共预算收入的区县中，109个在100 亿元及以上，主要分布在江浙沪粤鲁。有 606 个区县 2024年一 般公共预算收入增速为正，占比近八成，但增速普遍较 2023 年 下降。从区域分布来看，一般公共预算收入增速在 5%以上的区 县主要分布在湖北、山东、四川、浙江、重庆和安徽，数量均 在 20 个以上。不过，从财政收入结构来看，大部分区县一般公 共预算收入的增长较为依赖非税收入 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 20 日 建议关注以下五条投资主线：1）线下流量回归，传统业态有 望焕发新活力，相关受益标的包括：永辉超市、孩子王、百 联股份、中百集团、家家悦、重庆百货等；2）AI 技术持续升 级，AI 应用渗透率有望持续提升，相关受益标的包括焦点科 技、兰生股份、青木科技、凯淳股份、南极电商、博士眼镜 等；3）消费者为情绪价值买单意愿增强，高景气新零售赛道 有望持续获得超预期表现，相关受益标的包括：名创优品、 泡泡玛特、爱婴室等；4）促内需背景下，顺周期板块有望低 位复苏，从而释放业绩弹性，相关受益标的包括：蜜雪集 团、古茗、同庆楼、海底捞、百胜中国、锦江酒店、首旅酒 店、君亭酒店、科锐国际、祥源文旅、众信旅游等；5）消费 出海前景广阔， 近年来政策不断加大对国货品牌出海的支持 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业评级：推荐 [Table_Pic] 行业走势图 -24% -15% -6% 2% 11% 19% 2024/03 2024/06 2024/09 2024/12 2025/03 社会服务 沪深300 [Ta ...

Market Overview - The bond market is currently characterized by a "divergence" where both bullish and bearish sides have their own beliefs, leading to a state where yields are difficult to move significantly in either direction[1] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased to 1.65% (-1bp), while the 30-year bond yield has increased to 1.88% (+2bp) during the week of April 14-18[11] Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank's actions in March and April have resulted in a more relaxed liquidity environment, with R001 and R007 rates averaging 1.72% and 1.77% respectively, indicating a return to a relatively loose funding environment[22] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is seen as favorable for the bond market, as delays in these measures may prolong downward trends in bond yields[29] Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations are expected to be prolonged, with both sides showing significant differences in their positions, which may continue to negatively impact trade relations[30] - Recent data indicates a decline in container throughput and cargo handling at ports, reflecting the adverse effects of increased tariffs on trade volumes[31] Real Estate Policy Expectations - There is a growing expectation for stimulus measures in the real estate sector, including potential policies for housing improvement and mortgage rate cuts, although the implementation may be gradual rather than immediate[4][5] - The current state of the real estate market shows marginal improvements, but the overall impact on the economy remains limited, particularly in second and third-tier cities[33] Investment Strategy - The bond market strategy suggests maintaining a cautious approach with room for duration adjustments, as the average duration of interest rate bond funds has decreased to 3.45 years, reflecting a cautious trading sentiment[6] - The upcoming issuance of 30-year special government bonds is anticipated to create a favorable window for extending duration, although this opportunity may be short-lived due to impending PMI data releases[34]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that the company expects a negative impact of approximately $105 million on its primary aluminum business due to the 25% Section 232 tariffs imposed on Canadian aluminum imports, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of about $90 million [1] - The company anticipates an annual cost of $400 million to $425 million due to these tariffs, significantly affecting its profitability [1] - The Midwest aluminum premium has not reacted as strongly as the company had anticipated based on the 25% tariff expectations, leading to a current annual net profit of approximately -$100 million [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - In Q2 2025, the company projects a $105 million adverse impact on its primary aluminum business due to tariffs, with a quarter-over-quarter increase of about $90 million [1] - The tariffs were raised from 10% to 25% in March 2025, eliminating exemptions for Canadian aluminum imports, which is critical as 70% of the aluminum produced in Canada is sold to U.S. customers [1] - The company expects to incur annual costs of $400 million to $425 million due to these tariffs, despite benefiting from higher premiums in the Midwest [1] Tariff Impact - The company is not significantly affected by tariffs on aluminum products and most input materials from Canada and Mexico due to compliance with the USMCA [2] - However, high reciprocal tariffs on alumina and other raw materials are expected to increase input costs by $10 million to $15 million annually due to a lack of suitable alternative suppliers [2] Market Dynamics - In 2024, the U.S. imported approximately 4.2 million tons of primary aluminum, with 70% (2.9 million tons) sourced from Canada [3] - Even if all idle smelters in the U.S. were restarted, there would still be a shortage of 3.6 million tons of aluminum, indicating a significant reliance on Canadian aluminum imports [3] - The company has the capability to adjust its global smelting mix and supply chains based on trade policies and economic conditions [3] Financial Projections - The company expects a total loss of $100 million for the year, factoring in the higher Midwest premium and the costs associated with tariffs [6] - The Midwest premium is currently lower than the company's expectations, attributed to market sentiment and pre-tariff inventory accumulation [6] - The company estimates that the reasonable Midwest premium under the 25% tariff should be between $880 and $990 [17]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - The visit of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to China highlights the strategic value of the Chinese AI market, emphasizing Nvidia's commitment to optimizing chip products that comply with regulations, reflecting the global attractiveness of China's AI industry ecosystem [2][24] - The upcoming May Day holiday shows a significant increase in domestic flight ticket bookings, with over 3.33 million tickets booked, a year-on-year increase of approximately 36%, indicating strong potential for consumer spending in the tourism sector [2][25] - AI is positioned at the intersection of technology and domestic demand, supported by policies and structural transformation, with a cautious optimistic outlook on core Chinese AI companies, suggesting that leading firms with foundational technology capabilities will gradually demonstrate long-term investment value [3][25] Market Performance Overview - In the week of April 14-18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, while the SW Media Index increased by 1.91%, ranking 6th among 31 industries [12][18] - The gaming, sports, and advertising sectors led the sub-industry performance, with increases of 3.17%, 2.73%, and 2.37% respectively [12][16] Sub-Industry Data - The top three box office films were "Sunshine Flowers," "My World Movie," and "The Love That Doesn't Speak," while the top three streaming films included "The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Great Hero," "Murder 3," and "Breaking Hell" [4] - The top three games on iOS were "Honor of Kings," "Peacekeeper Elite," and "Dungeon and Fighter: Origin," with the Android rankings featuring "Heart Town," "Honkai: Star Rail," and "Ghost Valley" [7][19]

[Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 20 日 证券研究报告|行业研究周报 邮箱：qisy1@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120523110001 联系电话： 分析师：金兵 邮箱：jinbing@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120524050001 联系电话： ►第 16 周（04/13-04/19）4 月新房同比下滑，二手房交易同环比 增速放缓。（1） 30 城大中城市商品房交易数据：今年第 16 周， 国内 30 大中城市新房成交面积 142.21 万㎡，同比-22%，环比- 0.02%；累计交易面积 2,611.24 万㎡，同比+1%；从交易套数来 看，30 大中城市商品房成交 12,599 套，同比-22%，环比-2%；累 计交易 230,044 套，同比-3%；（2）15 城二手房交易数据：国内 15 个重点监测城市二手房成交面积 207.23 万㎡，同比+15%，环 比+2%；累计交易 2,942.27 万㎡，同比+37%。 ►水泥价格错峰执行节奏放缓价格下滑，浮法玻璃边际好转。 （1）水泥：本周全国水泥市场价格 392.67 元/吨，环比回落，跌 幅为 ...