Performance Insights - In Q2 2025, convertible bond funds achieved a median return of 3.52%, outperforming pure bond funds which had returns of 0.96%[1] - The overall performance of typical fixed income + funds surpassed that of pure bond funds following a rapid market recovery after a sharp decline[1] Fund Size and Positioning - In Q2 2025, the size of convertible bond funds decreased by 3.67% (CNY 36 billion) to CNY 948 billion, while first and second-tier bond funds increased by CNY 800 billion and CNY 385 billion, reaching CNY 8,487 billion and CNY 8,077 billion respectively[2][20] - The convertible bond fund's position increased slightly by 0.18 percentage points to 91.41%, while first-tier bond funds saw a minor decrease of 0.11 percentage points to 8.54%[24] Market Dynamics - The decline in convertible bond positions was primarily due to passive reductions, as fund managers struggled to find suitable investment opportunities amidst high demand and rising prices[3][26] - The high valuation of convertible bonds has weakened the common low-price investment strategy, leading to a constrained capacity for bottom-layer investment strategies[3][26] Sector Allocation - Public funds focused on increasing allocations in financial securities and mid-to-low priced cyclical consumer sectors, while reducing holdings in banks and other sectors facing forced redemption[4][37] - The top holdings included financial sector bonds, with significant increases in holdings of bonds from banks and non-bank financial institutions[4][37] Investment Strategy - The demand for convertible bonds remains strong, suggesting a continued bullish stance as long as underlying stocks do not show a downward trend[4] - A "barbell" investment strategy is recommended, combining large-cap bank stocks with policy-driven domestic demand sectors and undervalued technology growth stocks[4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The commodity market shows signs of cooling after a period of rapid growth, with significant fluctuations in stock indices and bond market stabilization [1][2] - Domestic commodity markets have experienced a decline in consistent bullish sentiment, leading to increased divergence among sectors and products [2][3] - The current market is characterized by a shift from excessive trading expectations to a more rational approach, indicating potential profit-taking and risk management [2][3] Group 2: Commodity Price Dynamics - Futures prices for certain commodities have significantly outpaced spot prices, indicating strong bullish expectations but also accumulating risks of price corrections [3] - The price differentials between near and far-month contracts suggest a softening of optimistic sentiment regarding future price increases [3][4] - Regulatory bodies have issued risk warnings for popular commodities to guide market participants towards more rational trading behaviors [4] Group 3: Stock Market Trends - The stock market is experiencing a rotation of funds from high-performing sectors to lower-performing ones, with technology and consumer sectors gaining attention [10][11] - The infrastructure sector is facing increased pressure, with a notable decline in related indices as market sentiment shifts [9][11] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been strong, driven by large internet companies and positive fund flows [10] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is entering a potential recovery phase, with investors considering long-duration assets amid recent adjustments [8] - The yield on government bonds has seen slight increases, reflecting changes in market risk preferences [6][8] - The overall bond market sentiment remains cautious, with investors closely monitoring commodity price movements and their implications for interest rates [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, bauxite production increased by 21.7% year-on-year to 1.713 million wet tonnes, while shipping volume rose by 18.8% to 1.685 million wet tonnes [1][2] - The cost of bauxite reached 40 AUD per wet tonne, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [3] - The site profit reached a record 32 AUD per wet tonne, marking a 500% increase year-on-year and an 83% increase compared to Q4 2024 [3] - Despite a decline in alumina prices since December 2024, the bauxite market remains resilient, with China importing 103 million tonnes in the first half of the year, a 33% increase year-on-year [3] - The offshore price (FOB) net revenue per unit increased to 72 USD per wet tonne, a 41% rise from Q4 2024 and a 16% increase from Q1 2025 [3] Production and Operational Performance - Q2 2025 production results showed bauxite mined at 1,713,000 wet tonnes, compared to 2,046,000 in Q4 2024 and 1,407,000 in Q2 2024 [8] - The average CIF pricing for Q2 2025 was 81.3 AUD per tonne, up from 72.7 AUD in Q4 2024 and 63.8 AUD in Q2 2024 [8] - Total costs per wet tonne were 40.0 AUD, with site costs at 31.0 AUD and royalties at 9.0 AUD [8] Financial Performance - As of the end of Q2 2025, the cash position was 28.7 million AUD, with secured debt financing totaling 56.6 million USD [5]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the production of copper increased by 17.8% year-on-year to 92,600 tons, and nickel production rose by 44.4% to 40,300 tons, driven by improved ore grades and capacity enhancements [1][2] - The average realized price for copper in Q2 2025 was $8,985 per ton, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, while nickel's average price fell by 15.2% to $15,800 per ton [3][8] Production and Sales Summary - Q2 2025 copper sales reached 89,000 tons, up 17.0% year-on-year, and nickel sales were 41,400 tons, an increase of 20.7% [7] - Iron ore production totaled 83,599,000 tons, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, while iron ore sales decreased by 3.1% to 77,346,000 tons [2][7] Price Realization Summary - The average realized price for iron ore fines was $85.1 per ton, down 13.3% year-on-year, and for iron ore pellets, it was $134.1 per ton, down 14.7% [3][8]

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent market focus has shifted to "anti-involution" and infrastructure sectors, which are more medium to long-term in nature[1] - As of July 21, the financing balance has risen to CNY 1,904.5 billion, approaching the March 20 high of CNY 1,940.2 billion[9] - The bull market atmosphere has led to increased risk-taking among investors, contributing to a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) mentality[9] Group 2: Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector is expected to attract funds flowing out of the "anti-involution" and infrastructure sectors due to its solid logic and ongoing industrial narrative[2] - Semiconductor sector is poised for a rebound, with the ChiNext 50 index still undervalued compared to its position at the start of the technology bull market in February[20] - AI sector remains a focal point, with significant advancements and competition, including the anticipated release of GPT-5 this summer[23] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key areas to watch include semiconductors, AI, robotics, and deep-sea technology, which are expected to see strong performance[3] - The domestic GPU companies, such as Moer Thread and Muxi Co., have received IPO approvals, which may enhance market sentiment[20] - The deep-sea technology sector is gaining attention, particularly in relation to military and resource sectors, as highlighted in recent government meetings[28] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - There is a risk of accelerated style rotation in the equity market, which could impact technology investments[31] - Unexpected events in the technology sector could lead to significant changes in investment logic[31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 2.167 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.80%, slightly exceeding expectations [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of 2025 was 427 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 98.73%, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [4] - The semiconductor testing equipment market is expected to grow significantly, driven by demand from AI and HBM, with the company positioned to benefit from this trend [5] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company released its semi-annual performance announcement for 2025 [2] Revenue Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 2.167 billion yuan, with Q2 revenue at 1.352 billion yuan, showing a growth of 39.52% year-on-year [3] - Revenue from testing machines was 1.250 billion yuan, up 34.30% year-on-year, driven by the rapid release of new products [3] - The sorting machine revenue reached 709 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.36% [3] Profitability - The company's net profit for H1 2025 was 427 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 19.67%, reflecting a 4.90 percentage point increase year-on-year [4] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 54.93%, maintaining a high level, with Q2 gross margin at 56.24% [4] Industry Outlook - The semiconductor testing equipment market in China is projected to reach approximately 24.6 billion yuan in 2025, with testing machines accounting for over 60% of the market [5] - The company is focusing on high-end equipment such as SOC and storage testing machines, which are expected to see increased demand [5] Financial Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 49.20 billion yuan, 63.75 billion yuan, and 81.78 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit forecasts of 9.11 billion yuan, 12.74 billion yuan, and 15.27 billion yuan [6] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.44 yuan, 2.02 yuan, and 2.42 yuan, respectively [6]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：人声鼎沸 | [Table_Title2] 国内市场表现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指 数 | 收 盘 | 涨 跌 | 幅度 （%） | 五日走势 | | 上证指数 | 3581.86 | 22.07 | 0.62% | | | 沪 深300指 数 | 4118.96 | 33.35 | 0.82% | | | 中证可转债指数 | 459.59 | 2.18 | 0.48% | | | 7-10年国开债指数 | 266.39 | -0.31 | -0.11% | | | 3-5年隐含AA+信用指数 | 190.38 | -0.09 | -0.05% | | 7 月 22 日，商品依旧是主角，"反内卷"政策预期更上一层楼，煤炭期货一度涨停，玻璃、多晶硅继续领涨。 国内市场风险偏好已被点燃，各大股指普遍上涨，债市延续防御状态，中长久期收益率悉数上行。 股市，大盘板块继续稳步上涨基调，上证指数、沪深 300 涨幅分别为 0.6 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, bauxite production increased by 11% quarter-on-quarter to 2.734 million tons, while alumina production rose by 3% to 1.516 million tons. The alumina realized price decreased by 1% year-on-year to $397 per ton, down 32% from the previous quarter [1][20] - Electrolytic aluminum production reached 512,000 tons, a 1% increase year-on-year and a 2% increase quarter-on-quarter. The realized price for electrolytic aluminum was $2,548 per ton, up 7% year-on-year [2][22] - The company generated a free cash flow of 5 billion Norwegian Krone (NOK) in Q2 2025, with an adjusted net profit of 3.577 billion NOK, reflecting a 113% year-on-year increase [7][25] Production and Operational Performance - Bauxite and alumina: - Bauxite production: 2.734 million tons, year-on-year stable, quarter-on-quarter up 11% [1][20] - Alumina production: 1.516 million tons, year-on-year up 2%, quarter-on-quarter up 3% [1][20] - Alumina total sales: 2.718 million tons, year-on-year stable, quarter-on-quarter up 6% [1][20] - Electrolytic aluminum: - Production: 512,000 tons, year-on-year up 1%, quarter-on-quarter up 2% [2][22] - Total sales: 550,000 tons, year-on-year down 6%, quarter-on-quarter up 2% [2][22] - Power generation: - Total generation: 2,136 GWh, year-on-year up 11%, quarter-on-quarter down 22% [4][21] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 2025 was 53.116 billion NOK, a 4% increase year-on-year, but down 7% from the previous quarter [7][25] - EBITDA for Q2 2025 was 6.889 billion NOK, a 14% increase year-on-year, but down 36% quarter-on-quarter [7][25] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was 7.790 billion NOK, reflecting a 33% year-on-year increase [7][25] Business Segment Performance - Bauxite and alumina: - Adjusted EBITDA decreased from 1.616 billion NOK in Q2 2024 to 1.521 billion NOK in Q2 2025, primarily due to rising raw material costs [9][25] - Electrolytic aluminum: - Adjusted EBITDA decreased from 2.520 billion NOK in Q2 2024 to 2.423 billion NOK in Q2 2025, impacted by rising alumina costs and lower sales volume [11][22] - Extrusions: - Adjusted EBITDA decreased from 1.377 billion NOK in Q2 2024 to 1.260 billion NOK in Q2 2025, due to lower sales margins [12][23] - Recycled aluminum: - Adjusted EBITDA decreased from 570 million NOK in Q2 2024 to 25 million NOK in Q2 2025, primarily due to lower procurement and trading performance [13][24] - Power business: - Adjusted EBITDA increased from 611 million NOK in Q2 2024 to 1.069 billion NOK in Q2 2025, driven by increased production and price benefits [14][21]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, marking its first coverage [4][7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the smart grid sector, with a comprehensive layout across the entire new power system, including source, network, load, storage, and data [1][11]. - The domestic grid investment is on an upward trend, with significant R&D investments supporting growth. In the first five months of 2025, grid project investments reached 204 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.8% [2][24]. - The global grid investment is also rising, with the company's overseas business revenue growing from 920 million to 3.28 billion from 2019 to 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 29% [3][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Smart Grid Leadership and Comprehensive Layout - The company is recognized as a pioneer in the domestic power automation sector, covering all aspects of the new power system [11]. - The smart grid business is the main contributor to revenue, with projected revenue of 28.47 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [13]. 2. Domestic Grid Investment and R&D Support - The report highlights the increasing investment in the domestic grid, with expectations for 2025 to exceed 650 billion [2][24]. - The company maintains high R&D spending, which reached 4.032 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.94% [40]. 3. Global Investment and Rapid Overseas Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its overseas business, with significant projects in Saudi Arabia, South America, and Mexico [44]. - The overseas revenue is expected to continue growing, contributing positively to overall performance [3][44]. 4. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 645.03 billion, 719.67 billion, and 799.99 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 11.6%, and 11.2% respectively [4][47]. - The expected net profit for the same period is 84.01 billion, 94.56 billion, and 106.14 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 10.4%, 12.6%, and 11.3% [4][47].

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the industry [8]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the total nickel production reached 45,233 tons, a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 6% decrease year-on-year. The increase was attributed to optimized supply processes and equipment maintenance [1][10]. - Copper production in Q2 2025 was 103,834 tons, reflecting a 5% decrease both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The decline was due to the reallocation of commercial product output based on export supply demands [2][10]. - Palladium production in Q2 2025 was 1,155 thousand ounces, down 11% quarter-on-quarter and 10% year-on-year, while platinum production was 155 thousand ounces, down 14% quarter-on-quarter and 13% year-on-year [3][10]. - For H1 2025, nickel production totaled 86,850 tons, a 4% decrease year-on-year, while copper production was 213,189 tons, a 2% decrease year-on-year [4][5][6]. - The production guidance for 2025 indicates nickel production between 196,000 and 204,000 tons and copper production between 343,000 and 355,000 tons, excluding the Trans-Baikal division [9][11]. Summary by Sections Nickel Production - Q2 2025 nickel production was 45,233 tons, a 9% increase from Q1 2025 but a 6% decrease from Q2 2024. The production was primarily from the company's own raw materials [1][4][10]. Copper Production - Q2 2025 copper production was 103,834 tons, down 5% from both the previous quarter and the same quarter last year. The decrease was linked to adjustments in product output based on market demand [2][5][10]. Platinum Group Metals (PGM) - Q2 2025 palladium production was 1,155 thousand ounces, a decrease of 11% from Q1 2025 and 10% from Q2 2024. Platinum production was 155 thousand ounces, down 14% quarter-on-quarter and 13% year-on-year [3][6][10]. Production Guidance - The company forecasts nickel production for 2025 to be between 196,000 and 204,000 tons and copper production between 343,000 and 355,000 tons, excluding Trans-Baikal operations [9][11].