Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The real - estate market shows a mixed performance with both二手房 and新房 sales experiencing consecutive year - on - year declines for seven weeks, but with some variations in different city tiers and specific cities [1][3]. 3. Detailed Summaries 3.1. Overall Second - hand Housing - This week (July 18 - 24), the second - hand housing transaction area in 15 cities was 2.11 million square meters, with a 1% week - on - week increase and a 4% year - on - year decline, having declined for seven consecutive weeks. From July 1 - 24, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 6%, higher than the 3% decline in June [1]. 3.2. Second - hand Housing by City Tier - In first - tier cities, the weekly transaction area of second - hand housing increased for two consecutive weeks, with a 4% increase this week. Year - on - year, it declined for seven weeks, with a 2% decline this week. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen had different growth and decline situations [2]. - In second - tier cities, the transaction area of second - hand housing decreased by 3% week - on - week. Year - on - year, it declined by 6% [2]. - In third - tier cities, the transaction area of second - hand housing increased by 2% week - on - week. Year - on - year, it increased by 2% [2]. 3.3. Overall New Housing - This week, the new housing transaction area in 38 cities was 2.02 million square meters, with a 7% week - on - week increase and a 6% year - on - year decline, having declined for seven weeks. From July 1 - 24, the cumulative year - on - year decline was 16% [3]. 3.4. New Housing by City Tier - In first - tier cities, the new housing transaction area decreased for three consecutive weeks, with a 3% decline this week. Year - on - year, it declined for seven weeks, with a 22% decline this week [3]. - In second - tier cities, the new housing transaction area increased by 8% week - on - week. Year - on - year, it declined by 4% [4]. - In third - tier cities, the new housing transaction area increased by 16% week - on - week. Year - on - year, it increased by 3% [4]. 3.5. Key City Observations - In first - tier cities, both second - hand and new housing weekly transactions declined year - on - year for seven weeks. For second - hand housing, Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen had different week - on - week and year - on - year performance. For new housing, the same was true, with different trends in each city [25]. - In Hangzhou, the second - hand housing transaction area was flat week - on - week, and the new housing transaction area increased by 18% week - on - week [26]. - In Chengdu, the second - hand housing transaction area increased by 5% week - on - week, and the new housing transaction area was flat week - on - week [26]. 3.6. Housing Price Observation - From July 14 - 20, the weekly listed prices of second - hand houses in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen decreased by 0.10%, 0.39%, and 0.16% respectively week - on - week. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, they also decreased [55].

Group 1 - The report highlights that Fitch has downgraded the outlook for the US industry by 25% due to rising uncertainties, slowing economic growth, and expectations that interest rates will remain high [1][20]. - The report predicts that the default rates for US high-yield bonds and leveraged loans will reach 4%-4.5% and 5.5%-6% respectively this year [1][20]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the TAMAMA technology index has risen to 35.8, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index stands at 50.3, indicating high valuation levels [1][20]. Group 2 - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has increased to 38.97, approaching its historical high of 44.19 recorded in December 1999, suggesting potential overvaluation [1][20]. - The report indicates that various sectors within the US stock market, including finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials, are facing selling pressure due to high valuation levels and economic uncertainties [1][20]. - The report notes that the Nasdaq index, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and TAMAMA technology index are likely to face downward pressure in the medium term [1][20]. Group 3 - The report mentions that the Nikkei 225 index has continued to rebound, but is expected to face further declines due to tight monetary policy and economic pressures in Japan [1][20]. - Emerging market indices such as Brazil's IBOVESPA, Mexico's MXX, and India's SENSEX30 are anticipated to experience adjustments due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties [1][20]. - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to show further divergence, with high-positioned assets likely to face corrections while structurally undervalued assets may present mid-term opportunities [1][40].

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 自由港 2025Q2 铜产量环比增加 10.9%至 43.68 万 吨，归属于普通股股东的净利润环比增长 119.3% 至 7.72 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 2025Q2 生产经营情况 1）铜 2025Q2 铜产量为 9.63 亿磅（43.68 万吨），同比减少 5.2%， 环比增加 10.9%。低于 2024Q2 主要反映了印度尼西亚和南美 洲较低的矿石品位和运营率，但部分被美国较高的研磨率和矿 石品位所抵消。 2025Q2 铜销量为 10.16 亿磅（46.08 万吨），同比增加 9.1%， 环比增加 16.5%。高于 2024Q2 主要反映了装运的时间安排。 2025Q2 铜的平均实现价格为 4.54 美元/磅，同比上涨 1.3%， 环比上涨 2.3%。 FCX 铜矿 2025Q2 合并平均单位净现金成本（扣除副产品收益 抵免）为每磅铜 1.13 美元，同比减少 34.7%，环比减少 45.4%。低于 20 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [10] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, copper production decreased by 11% year-on-year to 173,000 tons, primarily due to reduced output in Chile, despite an increase in Peru [2] - The average realized price for copper in H1 2025 was $4.36 per pound, reflecting a 2% increase year-on-year [3] - Iron ore production in Q2 2025 was 15.9 million tons, up 2% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from Minas-Rio [4] - The average realized price for iron ore in H1 2025 was $89 per wet ton, down 4% year-on-year [5] - Manganese ore production surged by 109% year-on-year to 746,000 tons in Q2 2025, recovering from previous disruptions [6] - Platinum Group Metals (PGM) production fell by 47% year-on-year to 492,000 ounces, impacted by reduced procurement and operational disruptions [7] - The average realized price for PGM in H1 2025 was $1,506 per ounce, a 4% increase year-on-year [7] - Coking coal production dropped by 51% year-on-year to 2.1 million tons in Q2 2025, primarily due to mine closures [8] - The average realized price for HCC coking coal in H1 2025 was $172 per ton, down 37% year-on-year [8] - Nickel production decreased by 5% year-on-year to 9,500 tons in Q2 2025, with an average realized price of $6.28 per pound, down 8% year-on-year [12][13] - Diamond production fell by 36% year-on-year to 4.1 million carats in Q2 2025, with an average realized price of $155 per carat, down 5% year-on-year [13][14] Production Guidance - The copper production guidance for 2025 remains unchanged at 690,000 to 750,000 tons, with unit costs expected to be approximately 151 cents per pound [15][26] - Iron ore production guidance for 2025 is maintained at 57 to 61 million tons, with unit costs around $36 per ton [16][26] - Diamond production guidance for 2025 is unchanged at 20 to 23 million carats, with unit costs around $94 per carat [17][18] - Coking coal production guidance remains at 10 to 12 million tons, with unit costs under review due to temporary mine closures [19][26] - Nickel production guidance for 2025 is unchanged at 37,000 to 39,000 tons, with unit costs around 505 cents per pound [21][22]

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 16.34, with a historical average of 23.49[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 13.47, while the ChiNext Index stands at 49.19[10] - The A-share market's risk premium rate is currently at 0.76%[18] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.32, with a maximum of 22.67 and a minimum of 7.36 recorded historically[59] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 21.51, indicating a significant valuation compared to other indices[65] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 28.63, with historical extremes ranging from 11.21 to 41.99[79] - The NASDAQ Index's current PE (TTM) is 42.96, reflecting a high valuation compared to historical data[87] Sector Valuation Insights - In the A-share market, the food and beverage sector has a low PE (TTM) of 18.51, while the technology sector has a high PE of 87.91[24][38] - The banking sector in the A-share market has a PB (LF) of 0.91, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical averages[27] Chinese Concept Stocks - Key Chinese concept stocks show a median PS of 7.38 for Alibaba and 2.92 for Baidu, with current values significantly lower than historical highs[96]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 凯撒铝业 2025Q2 加工收入环比增长 3.0%至 3.74 亿美元，净利润环比增长 4.5%至 2300 万美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 经营及业绩情况 2025Q2 净销售额 8.23 亿美元，环比增长 1.57%，同比增长 6.5%。 2025Q2 合金金属套期成本为 4.49 亿美元，去年同期为 3.67 亿 美元。 2025Q2 加工收入为 3.74 亿美元，环比增长 3.0%，同比增长 1.4%。 2025Q2 单位加工收入为 1.30 美元/磅，环比下跌 1.5%，同比 上涨 4.8%。 2025Q2 的净利润为 2300 万美元，环比增长 4.5%，同比增长 21.1%。摊薄后每股收益为 1.41 美元，环比增长 7.6%，同比增 长 22.6%。 2025Q2 调整后净利润为 2000 万美元，环比减少 16.7%，同比 减少 25.9%。调整后摊薄后每股净收益为 1.21 美元，环比减少 16.0% ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Viewpoints - Micro LED is seen as the ultimate partner for waveguide technology, enhancing display performance significantly in AR applications [1][9] - The Micro LED technology offers advantages in brightness, contrast, refresh rate, power consumption, and size compared to other display technologies [2][13] - The industry is witnessing a surge in AR glasses equipped with "waveguide + Micro LED" solutions, indicating a growing market potential [1][4] Summary by Sections 1. Display Technology - The combination of optical solutions and Micro LED displays can achieve a synergistic effect, enhancing the overall display quality for AR glasses [1][9] - Current display technologies include LCOS, DLP, LBS, Micro OLED, and Micro LED, with Micro LED being favored for its superior performance metrics [1][11] 2. Micro LED Technology - Micro LED technology involves miniaturizing and arraying LED structures, allowing for individual pixel addressing and driving [2][13] - It inherits high resolution, high PPI, high refresh rate, and high contrast from Micro OLED while improving response time, power consumption, and color gamut [2][13] 3. Technical Challenges - The main challenges in Micro LED production include substrate preparation, chip structure, bonding processes, and achieving full-color displays [3][24] - Full-color display solutions are currently being explored, with the combined light solution being the most mature, while others like quantum dot color conversion and three-color stacking are still in experimental stages [3][43] 4. Manufacturer Landscape - Major players in the Micro LED space include JBD, Raynex, Sitan Technology, and Nox Technology, each with unique technological strengths and production capabilities [4][56] - JBD is recognized for its leading technology in Micro LED displays, focusing on various applications including AR glasses and automotive HUDs [57][64] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the integration of AI models and active participation from major manufacturers, AR glasses are expected to see accelerated iterations and significant growth potential [4][10] - Beneficiaries of this trend include companies like JBD, Raynex, Sitan Technology, and others listed in the report [4][10]

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the expansion of the collaboration agreement with PowerCo, which includes additional payments of up to $131 million over the next two years to support joint commercialization efforts [1][2]. - The upgraded agreement allows PowerCo to produce up to an additional 5 GWh of QS batteries annually, totaling up to 85 GWh, and grants rights to license certain advanced QS technologies beyond the first-generation QSE-5 platform [2]. - The company has signed a joint development agreement with another major global automotive OEM, enhancing its collaboration and aiming for commercialization and licensing agreements [3]. - The company is making significant progress in its production capabilities, having replaced the Raptor process with the Cobra process for membrane production, which is expected to improve efficiency and productivity [6]. - Financial outlook indicates a capital expenditure of $8.3 million in Q2, with a revised annual capital expenditure forecast of $45 million to $65 million [7]. Summary by Sections Collaboration and Agreements - The report details the expansion of the PowerCo agreement, which includes milestone-related payments and prioritization of QSE-5 battery production from the San Jose pilot line [1][2]. - The company is also exploring collaboration in ceramic production with Murata Manufacturing, indicating strong demand for solid-state batteries in automotive applications [3]. Production and Technology - The transition to the Cobra process is a significant milestone, with expectations for B1 sample shipments and ongoing improvements in production efficiency [6]. - The company is focused on enhancing battery reliability and process stability as it scales up production [6]. Financial Performance - The report notes a net loss of $114.7 million for Q2, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $63 million, aligning with expectations [7]. - The company has $797.5 million in liquidity at the end of Q2 and has extended its cash runway guidance to 2029 [7]. Strategic Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of the recent agreements in showcasing the economic value of the company's solid-state platform and its potential to transform the automotive industry [8]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on a global market opportunity that could reach hundreds of billions annually [8].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the industry, indicating a "Buy" recommendation based on expected stock performance relative to the benchmark index [17]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in rare earth oxide (REO) production, with a year-on-year growth of 47% to 3,212 tons in Q2 2025, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 68% [1]. - The average selling price of REO reached A$60.2 per kilogram, reflecting a 19% increase from the previous quarter and a 42% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company has successfully launched the separation lines for heavy rare earth elements, dysprosium, and terbium, with substantial customer inquiries for the new capacity [4]. - Lynas is actively pursuing projects to achieve an annual production capacity of 10,500 tons of mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) by 2025, with ongoing improvements in processing quality at its facilities [2]. Production and Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, Lynas reported a total REO production of 3,212 tons, with NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium) production at 2,080 tons, both showing a 38% increase compared to the previous quarter [3][12]. - The sales volume of REO was 2,828 tons, which represents a 16% increase from the previous quarter but a 12% decrease year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved sales revenue of A$170.2 million in Q2 2025, marking a 38% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 25% increase year-on-year [7]. - Cash and short-term deposits at the end of Q2 2025 were A$166.4 million, down from A$268.9 million at the end of the previous quarter [13]. Growth Projects - The Mt Weld expansion project is in its final stages, with successful commissioning of the crushing circuit and ongoing preparations for initial production [8]. - Lynas is also addressing wastewater management challenges at its Seadrift site in the U.S. and is in discussions with the U.S. government regarding additional capital expenditures [9]. Strategic Partnerships - Lynas has signed two non-binding memorandums of understanding (MoUs) to develop new upstream and downstream rare earth projects in Malaysia, including a collaboration with JS Link to build a 3,000-ton neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet production facility [6][10].

Domestic Market Performance - The capital market's risk appetite has been reignited, leading to significant increases in the stock market and certain commodities, while the bond market shows signs of distress [2] - In the domestic commodity market, prices of coking coal, lithium carbonate, glass, and polysilicon have risen over 5%, with coking coal hitting the limit up for the fourth consecutive trading day [2][3] - The futures prices of coking coal, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are significantly higher than their spot prices, indicating a continued premium in the futures market [2][3] Industry Insights - The "anti-involution" movement is gaining traction, with various industries announcing price increases and regulatory measures to combat excessive competition [4] - The China Coking Industry Association has held multiple meetings to discuss price increases for coking coal, with significant price hikes observed in the futures market [3] - There is a divergence in market expectations for different commodities, with some showing strong near-term performance while others reflect weaker long-term demand [3] Stock Market Trends - The stock market is experiencing rotation among popular sectors, with significant gains in Hainan, rare earths, innovative pharmaceuticals, and small metals [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index and other major indices have shown steady upward trends, indicating strong market sentiment [5][10] - The technology sector continues to perform well, with the STAR Market indices showing notable increases, suggesting a shift of trading funds towards technology stocks [10] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is facing pressure from unexpected tightening of liquidity, with the central bank's actions leading to a net withdrawal of funds [6][8] - The bond market has experienced multiple negative factors, including a lack of demand for long-term bonds and significant redemptions from bond funds [7] - The recovery of the bond market is contingent on the central bank's liquidity support and market risk appetite [8] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, particularly in commodities experiencing price increases [2][4] - The technology sector is identified as a key area for investment, driven by ongoing policy support and strong market narratives [10] - The upcoming macroeconomic events, including policy meetings and trade negotiations, are expected to influence market dynamics and present further investment opportunities [11]